Predicting the Big 12 Season: Week 1

Welcome back! It’s time to project the Big 12 season for every team once again. Over the next couple of months, I will go through the entirety of the upcoming season for each team in the Big 12, pick the conference champion and make bowl projections.

Obviously, there is still a lot that can change but barring significant injuries for any of the teams we are in a good spot for some predictions.

With that said, let's do this!

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Week 1

Friday, September 3rd

South Dakota 21 at Kansas 24

It is really hard to pick Kansas in any games period and I may regret this but I think Lance Leipold can coach. So I will give him a win in week one as a new coach. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels throws for a touchdown and rushes for another one while RB Velton Gardner eclipses the 100-yard mark and scores. South Dakota keeps this one close all day but a strong performance on the ground and a defense that forces two turnovers allows the Jayhawks to get win No. 1 on the season.

Saturday, September 4th

Stanford 30 vs. Kansas State 34 (Dallas/AT&T Stadium)

The biggest game and the best game of week one will come in Dallas when an experienced Kansas State team faces a Stanford program trending up from a solid 2020 season. KSU QB Skylar Thompson opens the season with some of the magic he had last year before getting injured as he piles up over 300 yards of total offense and three touchdowns. KSU RB Deuce Vaughn rushes for 100 yards and a touchdowns while also catching another touchdown. On the other side Stanford QB Tanner McKee throws for 315 yards and three scores as this game turns into a little bit of a shootout. McKee throws a touchdown strike to Michael Wilson with just five minutes left to give Stanford a 30-27 lead. Unfortunately for them they left too much time on the clock as Skylar Thompson leads the Wildcats down the field before finding Malik Knowles for a 20-yard touchdown to seal the deal in a closely contested matchup.

Oklahoma 59 at Tulane 24

This one will turn into a blowout but I expect Tulane to compete early and score some garbage time points late.  OU QB Spencer Rattler throws for 315 yards and three touchdowns while OU RB’s Eric Gray and Kennedy Brooks combine for 200 yards and three scores. Tulane QB Michael Pratt throws for 340 yards and three touchdowns but turns the ball over three times and is sacked six times, twice by Nik Bonnito. The Sooners defense gives up some points but only because Tulane is going to be a solid offensive team with a very mediocre defense this year. Either way Sooners roll and pull away right before halftime and in the 3rd quarter.

West Virginia 34 at Maryland 27

This is a sneaky good matchup on the Big 12 slate during week one. Maryland was very inconsistent a year ago but they do have their quarterback of the future in Taulia Tagovailoa. I think he takes a step forward this year and in this matchup he totals 300 yards and three touchdowns. Maryland WR Rakim Jarrett catches six passes for 110 yards and two scores. These numbers keep them in the game but West Virginia takes advantage of a weak Maryland defense as Leddie Brown rushes for 150 yards and two scores while Jarrett Doege throws two scores through the air to help the Mountaineers survive an early Power Five test on the road.

Northern Iowa 17 at Iowa State 38

The Cyclones have struggled against Northern Iowa a couple times and even lost to them in 2016 which makes this game an enticing upset pick but it isn’t happening this season. Brock Purdy throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns while RB Breece Hall runs for 150 and two scores. The Cyclone defense really holds down Northern Iowa offensively as they give up less than 250 total yards in the game. UNI tries to muck the game up early but eventually the Cyclones pull away.

Louisiana 21 at Texas 27

This will be a popular upset pick during the weeks leading up to the season and for good reason as Louisiana returns 20 starters from last seasons 10-1 team including their quarterback Levi Lewis. They also decimated Iowa State in the first game last year but I don’t see it happening this time around. The Longhorns defense dominates the line of scrimmage and slows down the Louisiana rushing attack while also forcing two turnovers. On the offensive side things are not easy for Texas but Bijan Robinson’s 100 yard and two touchdown performance carries Texas through a very tough week one matchup. It will be close but Texas will be in the lead most of the game and close it out.

Texas Tech 47 vs. Houston 41 (Houston/NRG Stadium)

Can someone say shootout? That is exactly what I expect this game to be as both these teams should be mediocre on defense while having enough playmakers on offense to make those defenses pay. Get ready for some fireworks. New Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough (Oregon transfer) throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns in his first outing but also throws two interceptions. Tech RB SaRodorick Thompson rushes for 100 yards and a score on the ground to help lead the offense. On the other side, Clayton Tune throw for 400 yards and four scores to keep the Cougars very much in the game. With the Red Raiders up by six with five minutes left Tune has a chance to win the game but he is intercepted by Colin Schooler which ends up being the finishing touches in a wild matchup.

Missouri State 20 at Oklahoma State 41

OSU QB Spencer Sanders throws three touchdowns in the first half to give the Cowboys some cushion at half time before they pull away with the ground game in the second half. LD Brown and Dezmon Jackson rush for over 200 yards and two scores in the game. On defense true freshman safety Kendal Daniels has his first career interception and Trace Ford has two sacks. This one will be closer than expected for a little while as Missouri State is not a complete roll over team and they very well could be ranked this season in the FCS. 

Baylor 48 at Texas State 17

This is definitely a game of contrasting styles as Baylor is going to rely much more on their defense whereas the Bobcats will be trying to outscore everyone again this season. I think both Jacob Zeno and Gerry Bohanon play in this game and play well. Zeno throws for 215 yards and two scores while Bohanon throws for 100 yards and a touchdown while running for another. The Bears do significant damage in the run game as they pile up 210 yards and three scores, Trestan Ebner totals 100 yards and two touchdowns. The defense is actually up against a tough challenge as the Bobcats will try to spread them out but the lack of a run game does them in as the Bears blitz all game while also forcing turnovers in coverage. Overall Baylor forces three turnovers and piles up six sacks which stalls Texas State enough to build a big lead and get a road win to start the season.

Duquesne 10 at TCU 62

This one will not be close despite Duquesne going 4-1 a season ago. TCU QB Max Duggan throws two touchdowns and TCU rushes for 300 yards and four scores as Duggan, Zach Evans, and Kendre Miller run wild to open the season. Meanwhile the TCU’s defense forces four turnovers and piles up seven sacks in this one as they overwhelm the Dukes in this blowout win.

Big 12 Standings

1. Baylor — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Iowa State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Kansas — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Kansas State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Oklahoma — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Oklahoma State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. TCU — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Texas — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Texas Tech — 1-0 (0-0)

10. West Virginia — 1-0 (0-0)