Lots of people want a right-now answer. The real answer will take years to unfold.
If you go back and look at history, football was played regionally. The first conferences were all regional. Atlantic Coast, Southeastern, Southwest, Pacific, and so on. It was TV and money that made conferences want to be national.
The SEC has been a bandit conference for a long time. They killed the SWC when they stole Arkansas, not that the SEC did right by the Hogs. And that's important. Schools which get stolen to new homes find they are second-class.
Ask Nebraska.
Ask Colorado.
Ask Missouri.
20 years from now Texas and Oklahoma will be wondering how it all went wrong.
Because of the penalty money, the Big 12 will play as they are now in 2021 and 2022. UT and OU will get greedy and pay money to jump after that.
By that time, the panic will have settled down some, and the Big 12 will have a much better idea of its options.
ESPN's meddling will be known and understood, no matter how the legal fight plays out. The ACC and the Pac 12 will be less interested in change just to have 16 teams.
Houston, Memphis, and UCF will get serious looks. Two of them will join the Big 12 to replace UT/OU , most likely UH and Memphis, due to geography.
West Virginia will run to the ACC, but be replaced by Nebraska.
In 2025, the big break happens, as Iowa from the Big Ten and Missouri from the SEC come back to the Big 12, making it 12 teams again.
In 2026, a Big 12 team wins the CFP.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier