Baylor Basketball

Gameday Thread: 9th-Seeded Bears Open NCAA Tournament versus No. 8-Seed Mississippi State

The ninth-seeded Baylor Bears (19-14; 10-10 Big 12) will open the NCAA Tournament against the No. 8-seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12; 8-10 SEC) at 11:15 a.m. CT on Friday, March 21. The game will be televised on CBS.
March 17, 2025
61k Views
237 Comments
Story Poster
Photo by Jack Mackenzie - SicEm365.com

The ninth-seeded Baylor Bears (19-14; 10-10 Big 12) will open the NCAA Tournament against the No. 8-seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12; 8-10 SEC) at 11:15 a.m. CT on Friday, March 21, in Raleigh, North Carolina. The game will be televised on CBS.

KenPom Prediction: Baylor 74, Mississippi State 73

Torvik Prediction: Baylor 73, Mississippi State 72

Evan Miyakawa: Baylor 74, Mississippi State 72

Haslametrics: Baylor 74, Mississippi State 72


Coaches

Mississippi State: Chris Jans (55); 206-83 (63-39 at Mississippi State); 5 NCAAs

Baylor: Scott Drew (54); 485-269 overall (465-258 at Baylor); 12 NCAAs; 5 Sweet 16s; 3 Elite 8s; FF; 1 National Championship

Head to Head: 0-0


Mississippi State Starters

  • Guard: Josh Hubbard (So.) 5-11 190 lbs; 19 ppg; 2 reb; 3 asst; 39% FG; 34% 3pt; 88% FT
  • Guard: Riley Kugel (Jr.) 6-5 210 lbs; 9 ppg; 3 reb; 2 asst; 43% FG; 32% 3pt; 75% FT
  • Forward: RJ Melendez (Sr.) 6-7 210 lbs; 9 ppg; 4 reb; 44% FG; 28% 3pt; 75% FT
  • Forward: Cameron Matthews (Sr.) 6-7 235 lbs; 7 ppg; 7 reb; 4 asst; 3 st; 51% FG; 24% 3pt; 50% FT
  • Forward: Michael Knowoko (So.) 6-10 245 lbs; 6 ppg; 5 reb; 53% FG; 14% 3pt; 61% FT

Mississippi State Bench

  • Guard: Shawn Jones (Jr.) 6-5 205 lbs; 5 ppg; 3 reb; 45% FG; 30% 3pt; 76% FT
  • Guard: Claudell Harris (Sr.) 6-4 200 lbs; 10 ppg; 3 reb; 39% FG; 34% 3pt; 76% FT
  • Forward: KeShawn Murphy (Jr.) 6-10 230 lbs; 12 ppg; 8 reb; 57% FG; 61% FT

Baylor Starters

  • Guard: Rob Wright (Fr.) 6-1 180 lbs; 11 ppg; 4 asst; 42% FG; 36% 3pt; 78% FT
  • Guard: VJ Edgecombe (Fr.) 6-5 190 lbs; 15 ppg; 6 reb; 3 asst; 2 st; 44% FG; 35% 3pt 78% FT
  • Guard: Langston Love (Jr.) 6-5 215 lbs; 8 ppg; 3 reb; 37% FG; 32% 3pt; 89% FT 
  • Forward: Jalen Celestine (Sr.) 6-7 215 lbs; 7 ppg; 4 reb; 39% FG; 36% 3pt; 81% FT
  • Forward: Norchad Omier (Sr.) 6-7 245 lbs; 16 ppg; 11 reb; 57% FG; 30% 3pt; 75% FT

Baylor Bench

  • Guard: Jeremy Roach (Sr.) 6-2 180 lbs; 10 ppg; 3 asst; 38% FG; 35% 3pt; 69% FT
  • Guard: Jayden Nunn (Sr.) 6-4 190 lbs; 9 ppg; 3 reb; 41% FG; 41% 3pt; 64% FT
237 Comments
Discussion from...

Gameday Thread: 9th-Seeded Bears Open NCAA Tournament versus No. 8-Seed Mississippi State

31,333 Views | 237 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by historian
Delmar 2.0
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Just win Bears!
I ain't quite as dumb as I seem
-- (P.C. 1974)
TXBEAR_bf
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I would be hesitant to think Love is starting, but I am liking the match up. I feel like this was as good as we could asked for in the first round. Neither team is beating Duke. They have size all over the place.
Bear living in the woods of Bend Oregon
BUCANDOIT82
How long do you want to ignore this user?
We can beat Duke. They played 1 ranked team in 2025.
Quinton
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BUCANDOIT82 said:

We can beat Duke. They played 1 ranked team in 2025.


They are one of the biggest teams in the country and are the most talented team in the country by far.

They probably win without Flagg (who I'm betting is completely healthy), with him probably game over.
BUCANDOIT82
How long do you want to ignore this user?
We will easily be the best team Duke has played since their non-con schedule. They are not battle tested and are not used to having to scrap for a win. We are going to be faster than any team they played all year. I just don't get the defeatism with this year's team.
IowaBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
In what fantasy do you live in?? In what sane world is Baylor "easily better" than Clemson or Louisville? Do you actually watch anyone but Baylor? Baylor is what 19-13? You act like this team is 30-2. There's nothing whatsoever to suggest Baylor can beat Duke. Sure it could happen, it's March after all. But the chances are incredibly low. Less than 5%
Quinton
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Better than the Arizona team that completely controlled us? Duke manhandled them at Arizona when they were like 16 yrs old. That was their biggest home loss of the year. They are much better now.

Another factor that's slept on. The big 12 doesn't have high level rivalries outside of the north. The ACC while "down " has teams very familiar with each other and gunning hard against them.

The teams might not be great but they are getting an intensity that will help them in the tournament.
TXBEAR_bf
How long do you want to ignore this user?
If, and a big IF Josh was playing top of his game and able to play and Langston was 100 %, we would have a 10% chance of beating Duke. Without those two we have a 1-5% chance, and that would be with a limping Flagg. I don't think some on the board know how they have been dismantling most teams they have played.

On a side note, almost every bracket I have seen by "experts" has Miss St winning. It's a toss up, but confidence is low for Baylor. Seems kind of counterintuitive if they all think Houston is going to the final four. We hung with them fairly well both times. I think this team playing with purpose is a top 25 team, we just have not seen that game to game, hell half to half.
Bear living in the woods of Bend Oregon
BUCANDOIT82
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Louisville and Clemson do not have impressive non-conference resumes. Their rankings are simply a product of rolling through a very weak ACC. These teams weren't even ranked when conference play started. We will be the best team Duke has faced in 2025.
IowaBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The delusion is strong here 82… really damm strong
TXBEAR_bf
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I don't think we are better than Clemson, you probably thought that last year until they beat us in the tournament. Not sure what evidence you have to support that. Clemson beat Duke. We ALMOST beat Houston. They found a way to win, we didn't not. I would also not want to play Louisville, they are tough.
This team (Baylor) just lost to Colorado, arguably the worst team in the conference. We have to tools to win for sure, whether they play together is a whole other question. In summary, I would not count on the Bears, they can beat a lot of teams 15 ranking and higher, but I have seen little to make me think they are going to beat Duke.
Bear living in the woods of Bend Oregon
Quinton
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Unc (who was a scrub at times in the ACC) doesn't look half bad. And they are mauling a team that just happened to beat the big 12 champs.

Transitive property doesn't really apply but just saying
BUCANDOIT82
How long do you want to ignore this user?
For context, McNeese rolled through their conference with one loss. In that loss they were 0-12 from 3 and their opponent was 11-22. Sometimes in basketball it's not your night.

North Carolina had 1 Quad One win and probably is not in this Tournament If their AD isn't the Chair of the Committee. I stand by my analysis. Our team, for those of us on this message board who actually root for Baylor (all are welcome), has had a lot of adversity. How many of you remember VJ didn't play against Connecticut? Or losses where Roach or Love or Celestine didn't play. Not to mention Norchsd's foul troubles. I remember all of those things which is why I am not counting us out.

We have drawn the short straw with so many teams shooting above their averages. It's not because of defense, like some will argue, but random luck. The freshman from BYU went 8-8 from 3, he's probably never gone 8-8 in practice. Just sayin ( may Margaret Davis not roll over in her grave).

Quinton
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I forgot Duke also destroyed an Illinois team that while kind of poorly coached is better than Bu. And I believe it was the worst loss in their programs history.

And I agree unc didn't deserve to be in but that's not what we're talking about now.

82, I like the enthusiasm but this is too much
BUCANDOIT82
How long do you want to ignore this user?
We got mauled at Gonzaga. Look how that turned out for them.
IowaBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Is Bu the only team that dealt with injuries? Is Bu the only team that dealt with foul trouble? Is BU the only team that dealt with adversity? These are excuses 82… plain and simple. BU is in and quite frankly has a real solid chance at the Rd if 32z. But you thinking bu is beating Duke and that BU is the best team Duke has played falls in Line with your typical throwing **** at a wall and hoping it sticks. Nothing more than a long shot attempt to be the smartest man in the room,
BUCANDOIT82
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I specifically said BU is the best team Duke will play in 2025, if we play. They still have to win.
IowaBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
…while completely ignoring Clemson and Louisville are better than BU. But by all means carry on 82. You have BU winning the natty in your bracket I assume?
TWD 1974
How long do you want to ignore this user?
IowaBear said:

In what fantasy do you live in?? In what sane world is Baylor "easily better" than Clemson or Louisville? Do you actually watch anyone but Baylor? Baylor is what 19-13? You act like this team is 30-2. There's nothing whatsoever to suggest Baylor can beat Duke. Sure it could happen, it's March after all. But the chances are incredibly low. Less than 5%
Love our team, but that's a bad matchup for us.
“No eye has seen, no ear has heard, and no mind has imagined what God has prepared for those who love Him.” 1 Corinthians 2:9
Quinton
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BUCANDOIT82 said:


We have drawn the short straw with so many teams shooting above their averages. It's not because of defense, like some will argue, but random luck. The freshman from BYU went 8-8 from 3, he's probably never gone 8-8 in practice. Just sayin ( may Margaret Davis not roll over in her grave).



You sound like Drew here. I agree on the BYU freshman. That will never happen again no matter the defense.

But.. we debated this before. We let teams get incredibly comfortable. This allows rhythm and then even when we up the defensive intensity a bit they still make tougher shots. That's our fault, nothing more.

Why do teams miss pretty good looks against intense defensive teams. They are uncomfortable. We don't do that to teams.

Some metrics actually suggest we are missing a lot of shots we should be making. I actually agree with that. Unfortunately our roster just hasn't had it. I think we could do some surprising damage had we not drawn Duke.. but we did.
IowaBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Bingo, this team has a really good chance at beating Miss St. that's an excellent matchup all things considered. Rd of 32 this year imo would be a win. That said, Duke is as bad of a matchup as you Bu could get.. that team is just better and it's not even close. It's March and Bu could play out of their minds and keep it close. But the reality is that a miracle would be needed to beat Duke
Oldbear83
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BUCANDOIT82 said:

We can beat Duke. They played 1 ranked team in 2025.
Let's see what happens Friday first.
Oldbear83
How long do you want to ignore this user?
IowaBear said:

Bingo, this team has a really good chance at beating Miss St. that's an excellent matchup all things considered. Rd of 32 this year imo would be a win. That said, Duke is as bad of a matchup as you Bu could get.. that team is just better and it's not even close. It's March and Bu could play out of their minds and keep it close. But the reality is that a miracle would be needed to beat Duke
Let's talk again Saturday.
IowaBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
By Saturday my bracket will be busted haha.
historian
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I hope I'm wrong, but we are not going to defeat Duke playing in the state of North Carolina. We might as well be playing at Cameron Indoor. Their fans will be out in force and there will be few people wearing the green & gold. Let's just be sure not to let it get out of hand like we did in Spokane.
TWD 1974
How long do you want to ignore this user?
historian said:

I hope I'm wrong, but we are not going to defeat Duke playing in the state of North Carolina. We might as well be playing at Cameron Indoor. Their fans will be out in force and there will be few people wearing the green & gold. Let's just be sure not to let it get out of hand like we did in Spokane.
Guys can we focus on the task at hand: Miss. State? They are a good team fully capable of taking us out. We have a tough 40 minutes ahead, so why folks are looking past them is just odd, and just basketball stupid.
“No eye has seen, no ear has heard, and no mind has imagined what God has prepared for those who love Him.” 1 Corinthians 2:9
Stefano DiMera
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Might as well start a Duke game thread.
Big12Fan2024
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Thank you.

BUCANDOIT82
How long do you want to ignore this user?
IowaBear said:

In what fantasy do you live in?? In what sane world is Baylor "easily better" than Clemson or Louisville? Do you actually watch anyone but Baylor? Baylor is what 19-13? You act like this team is 30-2. There's nothing whatsoever to suggest Baylor can beat Duke. Sure it could happen, it's March after all. But the chances are incredibly low. Less than 5%


Again, we will easily be the best team Duke has faced in 2025. We're definitely better than Louisville and Clemson. At least Clemson put on a furious charge.
IowaBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
You're dogging Clemson and Louisville for losing to tournament teams. We aren't definitely better than either team. We ****ing lost to CO and TCU. Why don't you worry about our Bears beating Miss St before Duke pushes our **** in? Or did we already beat Miss St?
boognish_bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Let's do the damn thing Bears
Mitch Henessey
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Two fouls in 33 seconds isn't the start I wanted to see...
boognish_bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
We've had 2 layups and made 2 layups...that's a good sign
Bearsalwayswin
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ok I know we're not amazing this year but that fan attendance from us is disgusting (at least from the tv view) is there 10 fans there for us?
historian
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Defense looking pretty good so far
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.