1-on-1: What the NET and KenPom say about Baylor and Gonzaga

Let me be clear and say I’m the least knowledgeable of the SicEm365 Staff when it comes to basketball. I leave that up to Ashley, Jason, Grayson and Brian who loves to chop it up about the Lady Bears. But I don’t mind telling you why you’re right or wrong about a certain area of the game—even if it turn out to look incredibly foolish. 

Over on the SicEm365 Premium Forum, the debate about Baylor and Gonzaga and who should be ranked No. 1 has been on-going and with each win over a Big 12 opponent, the conversation is becoming deeper.

Become a SicEm365 Premium member for $1.00.

That’s no different from the rest of the college basketball community, but for Baylor fans there is obviously more at stake. This is the second-consecutive season that Baylor has spent the majority of the season inside the top two but it has absolutely zero to show for it after the conference tournament was shut down and the NCAA tournament was canceled entirely. 

While the goal isn’t to simply be the No. 1-overall season—Baylor fans want all the marbles—it is a massive accomplishment if the Bears can pull it off. A first-weekend upset or a disappointing exit before the Final Four after earning the No. 1-overall seed would put a wet blanket on a tremendous season, but being considered No. 1 at the end of the regular season is a massive accomplishment standing on its own.

But I digress. This is about Baylor and Gonzaga as things currently stand. Gonzaga remains the top-ranked team in the AP and Coaches Polls while Baylor is holding to the top spots in the NET and the highly respected KenPom rankings. Needless to say, there’s a razer thin margin between the two programs.

Unfortunately for Baylor, the way it could have separated early on was lost when multiple highly touted match ups with ranked programs in the non-conference schedule were called off due to COVID-19 concerns including a head-to-head contest with Gonzaga.. So while the Bulldogs were out picking up wins over current top-25 teams Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa and Virginia in non-conference, the Bears only played a single ranked opponent in Illinois during non-conference.  

Gonzaga also picked up wins over Auburn and BYU during its non-conference slate. Baylor’s best resume win in the non-conference, on the other hand, was either SFA or Louisiana-Lafayette. 

Game, canceled. Set, Zags. Match still up for grabs.

Because of conference affiliations, Baylor’s rally in January and their 15-0 overall start to the season has made it a neck-and-neck in the race, including in the aforementioned NET rankings, the No. 1 tool in determining seeding by the selection committee. How close are the two teams?

The NET ranking places wins into four quadrants. Each team eligible for the NCAA tournament falls into a certain quadrant depending on their performance through that particular stage of the season.  The NET does not include any preseason data. For more information on the rankings, you can read this article. 

This is the NET comparison between both Gonzaga and Baylor: 

Baylor’s current Q1 wins have come neutral against Illinois (7), on the road against Texas Tech (13), home against Kansas (18), home against Oklahoma (21) and on the road against Oklahoma State (39).

Gonzaga’s five Q1 wins have come neutral against Iowa (5), neutral against Virginia (6), neutral against Kansas (18), neutral against West Virginia (20) and at home against BYU (38). 

The NET places value on wins away from home, specifically on the road compared to neutral locations. With very similar resumes across the board, Baylor’s road victory against Texas Tech looks to be the biggest difference in resumes at this point of the season. 

With rematches against Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State remaining on the schedule to match with two contests against Q1 teams Texas (14) and West Virginia (20), the chance for Baylor’s overall NET resume to outpace Gonzaga’s is highly likely so long as Baylor continues to produce on the court.

Looking at the NET ranking as of Jan. 28, Baylor will have eight more opportunities for wins against Q1 opponents. A hot Auburn team, currently No. 59 in the NET, would also be one to watch as the season progresses if the Bears avoid the upset this Saturday.

For Gonzaga, a repeat victory over BYU and a potential rematch in the conference tournament is the only remaining chances for Q1 victories as the NET stands on Jan. 28.  Only Saint Mary’s (64) looks to be in position for a chance to slip into the Q1, but a rise that far would likely come at the detriment of Gonzaga who would need to lose to the Gaels. 

KenPom has the same stance as the NET at this current stage. The Bears are ranked the No. 1 defensive team and the No. 3 offensive team in the country, giving them an overall adjusted efficiency margin of +34.60, enough for No. 1 in the country. 

Gonzaga is considered the No. 2 offense and No. 12 defense by KenPom, giving it a +34.17 adjusted efficiency margin, placing them at No. 2. 

The gap between Gonzaga and No. 3 Michigan (+28.12) is 6.05, 14x the 0.43 between Baylor and Gonzaga. The 6.05 is also only slightly less than the margin between Michigan and the No. 17 West Virginia (+22.02). 

Despite the head start for Gonzaga in the strength of schedule column, the conference schedules have already evened things out. Baylor’s schedule currently ranks No. 104 in the country with their schedule being back loaded, while Gonzaga ranks No. 103 having already played any teams of note. Baylor’s non-conference SOS ranked No. 275 compared to Gonzaga’s at No. 89.

The theory that Scott Drew and Mark Few would like to sneak the game in on a weekend likely has merit, but I imagine Few is pushing a little harder for that one at this point in the season.

After a game against Auburn, Baylor will enter a stretch of play where it will face a ranked opponent five times in 16 days. That includes an eight-day stretch from Feb. 10 to Feb. 18 where the Bears will play four AP Top 25 teams: at No. 24 Oklahoma, home against No. 10 Texas Tech, at No. 11 West Virginia and home against No. 11 West Virginia.

In that same 16-day window, Gonzaga will play four games against Loyola Marymount, Santa Clara twice, San Francisco and Saint Mary’s. 

Few knows his team needs to be tested. Drew knows his team will be tested, and will also be looking to save its legs. Without a flurry of canceled games, that doesn’t make a lot of sense other than the visibilty it would bring to Drew’s program. 

When you hear that it’s Gonzaga and the rest of college basketball this season, that is true right now. Baylor has the slight edge in the ranking that matters—the NET— as well as the ranking that is considered to be the best in the land when it comes to college basketball.

But, for my moment of coach speech, I will remind you that there is still a lot of basketball to be played.