Once again, Sam mistakes his opinion for facts. One reason Ukraine is moving as they are, is that Zelensky at least understands that the war changes drastically if he crosses into Russia. He has to keep the image of repelling the invader, which is a very difficult plan for the long term.Sam Lowry said:One could scarcely imagine a more thorough misreading of the situation. Ukraine has gained nothing of real value in the recent push and continues to suffer high casualties against a much larger opponent. Putin need not be in any hurry.whiterock said:This admin is doing far better than I would have imagined. They are more cautious than they could be. Or I would be. But they are playing hardball. Fun to watch.Canada2017 said:trey3216 said:he's already taken over 50,000 in his little 3 day war.Canada2017 said:Putin is still ex KGB....he knows where the bodies are buried.trey3216 said:he's not gonna win this war and he knows it. It's all but lost as it sits today. "Mobilizing" the army away from the government may be his only shot to stay in power for any stretch. The walls are crashing in, and I don't believe for a second there will be a nuke fired because someone else is the one who has to follow the orders. Even China has turned their back on Russia in this one, aside from buying whatever minerals/commodities they can for $.50 on the dollar.Canada2017 said:trey3216 said:just like he wasn't bluffing about 3 days. Just like he wasn't bluffing about NATO countries giving Ukraine supplies. He's a dead man walking and he knows it. At least he can mobilize his "army" away from the Kremlin and his vacay spots so he won't die in the next 3 weeks.Canada2017 said:
Putin says he is not bluffing about using nukes .
Are we having fun yet ….are we cool again ?
A 'dead man walking ' in command of thousands of nuclear warheads is an incredibly dangerous individual.
A dead man walking who KNOWS his only chance of survival is to 'win' …….is even more dangerous.
Biden's handlers need to somehow find even the slightest amount of common sense and work a face saving deal with Putin .
One that allows him to survive ( for now ) yet regain Ukraine's lost territory.
And if going to die anyway .......might choose to take many others with him .
Would be very easy to add a couple of zeros to that number .
The US has already miscalculated once .
And the same dementia case is still ( nominally ) in charge .
No question we are attempting to put Putin in a situation where he will face a stark dilemma: withdraw to the status quo ante, or lose the entire Crimea to include Sebastopol. That may not sound significant, but Sebastopol has been a Russian naval base since the reign of Catherine the Great. Losing it would be a strategic defeat of tremendous historic significance. And, of course, Russia wouldn't need it if we sank the Black Sea Fleet......
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11234251/America-hit-Russias-military-devastating-strike-Putin-nukes-Ukraine-says-general.html
I've been watching for YouTubes with Ben Hodges for months. More than any other observer, he has been not just accurate in explaining key dynamics, but granular. He predicted the Russian collapse we are witnessing would occur in August, rather than September, but spot on about the mechanics of what would cause it = logistics.
I think we are also making clear preparations for Ukraine to take the war into Russian territory. This would be not an attempt to "invade Russia" in the classical sense, but rather to not let borders get in the way of defending Ukraine. We will support Ukranian attack, via air, artillery, or infantry, any logistical hubs necessary to prevent Russian encroachment on Ukrainian territory.
This is good. Make Putin risk his own skin. Losing Sebastopol. Losing Black Sea Fleet. Losing historically Russian territory. All amid complete logistical collapse of the Russian military....... Putin is clearly facing the stark dilemma of immediate strategic retreat from Ukrainian territory, or strategic defeat of the Russian military, and.....failure of the Russian state under the Putin regime.
Looming.......At some point, Belarus is going to realize it's picked a loser for an ally. Current head of state will not likely switch unless under heavy pressure, but opposition forces could at any point from here start to agitate to bring down the regime. Nato has lots of contiguous border with Belarus, as well as lots & lots of linguistic and cultural ties. VERY easy to not just support unrest/insurgency in Belarus, but instigate it. I would be surprised if we don't see that happen before Thanksgiving. You read it here.
Why would undermining Belarus be important? Well, where do we think those 300k troops Russia just mobilized will be deployed? If i was Putin, I would deploy some/all of them to Belarus to pose a strategic risk to Kiev. It would force Ukraine to divert resources away from the south. We have 60-90 days before that that could happen. Ergo......watch Belarus.
As for Putin, it's easy to imagine he's a dead man walking, but the Oligarchs may well see him in a different light. Kill Putin and someone else comes into power, and the Oligarchs will have to deal with that one at some cost. Let Putin live under condition, and at least the Oligarchs keep a kind of quo.
This will lag into winter. Don't forget that the gas and oil shortages will be tools Putin can and will use, and while a lot of countries will see advantage in supporting the use of force against Russia, not so many will be willing to spend their money to feed and house Ukrainians.
There's a lot of ugly still to come.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
