Gangsta Boo vaccinated.Fre3dombear said:
Another friend of mine just spent 9 days in the hospital with
Inflammation and fluid around the heart
Blood clots in lungs and legs
Triathlete. Never had this issue in life before.
Vaxed.
Congrats
43 year olds dropping dead these days is the new normal. Probably just another case of Sudden Adult Death Syndrome. Time to move along now!Osodecentx said:Gangsta Boo vaccinated.Fre3dombear said:
Another friend of mine just spent 9 days in the hospital with
Inflammation and fluid around the heart
Blood clots in lungs and legs
Triathlete. Never had this issue in life before.
Vaxed.
Congrats
Gangsta Boo dead.
They'll tell you it was a drug overdose, but ...
Stay at home in the model was for infected and immediate family. Social distancing was not a universal stay at home, close businesses, schools, etc. It was a reduction in contacts outside of school and work. I posted the exact measures from the model earlier. Any practical review of them shows they were all applied and done so multiple times with case triggers. I have specifically stuck with the UK as the model did.Sam Lowry said:
It's not my burden to guesstimate. The model assumes certain policies are in place (including stay-at-home orders, BTW). Those policies were not in place. If you think for some reason the best-case scenario should still apply, that's on you to prove with more than just speculation.
Wrong again. Case isolation was for infected, quarantine was for immediate family, and social distancing (like our stay-at-home policy) was for the entire population.ATL Bear said:Stay at home in the model was for infected and immediate family. Social distancing was not a universal stay at home, close businesses, schools, etc. It was a reduction in contacts outside of school and work. I posted the exact measures from the model earlier. Any practical review of them shows they were all applied and done so multiple times with case triggers. I have specifically stuck with the UK as the model did.Sam Lowry said:
It's not my burden to guesstimate. The model assumes certain policies are in place (including stay-at-home orders, BTW). Those policies were not in place. If you think for some reason the best-case scenario should still apply, that's on you to prove with more than just speculation.
Your burden is your claim that a) the measures weren't utilized when they were and b) they weren't used as the model forecasted (your guesstimate) when in fact they were in addition to other measures.
Sure, Sam. Wrong again…ATL Bear said:Directly from the study.Sam Lowry said:
That is certainly an interesting rewrite of both the study and recent history. Your narrative evolves almost as rapidly as the virus itself.
ATL Bear said:Stay at home in the model was for infected and immediate family. Social distancing was not a universal stay at home, close businesses, schools, etc. It was a reduction in contacts outside of school and work. I posted the exact measures from the model earlier. Any practical review of them shows they were all applied and done so multiple times with case triggers. I have specifically stuck with the UK as the model did.Sam Lowry said:
It's not my burden to guesstimate. The model assumes certain policies are in place (including stay-at-home orders, BTW). Those policies were not in place. If you think for some reason the best-case scenario should still apply, that's on you to prove with more than just speculation.
Your burden is your claim that a) the measures weren't utilized when they were and b) they weren't used as the model forecasted (your guesstimate) when in fact they were in addition to other measures.
Isolation of infected...check.ATL Bear said:Sure, Sam. Wrong again…ATL Bear said:Directly from the study.Sam Lowry said:
That is certainly an interesting rewrite of both the study and recent history. Your narrative evolves almost as rapidly as the virus itself.
SMH….Sam Lowry said:Isolation of infected...check.ATL Bear said:Sure, Sam. Wrong again…ATL Bear said:Directly from the study.Sam Lowry said:
That is certainly an interesting rewrite of both the study and recent history. Your narrative evolves almost as rapidly as the virus itself.
Quarantine of household...check.
Social distancing of entire population...check.
Not sure where we go from here, hoss! It's exactly what I just said.
The Buffalo Bills' Damar Hamlin. The hit did not look very impactful. He popped right up after making a tackle and after a few steps back, he collapsed. Hope and pray he is okay.Fre3dombear said:
Wow. Lamar Hamlin cpr 15 min now
24 years old
I was watching the game. A very normal hit it appeared, he got up and celebrated, and collapsed.RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:The Buffalo Bills' Damar Hamlin. The hit did not look very impactful. He popped right up and after a few steps back, he collapsed. Hope and pray he is okay.Fre3dombear said:
Wow. Lamar Hamlin cpr 15 min now
24 years old
Fair point on business closures. School closures were included, subject to triggers.ATL Bear said:SMH….Sam Lowry said:Isolation of infected...check.ATL Bear said:Sure, Sam. Wrong again…ATL Bear said:Directly from the study.Sam Lowry said:
That is certainly an interesting rewrite of both the study and recent history. Your narrative evolves almost as rapidly as the virus itself.
Quarantine of household...check.
Social distancing of entire population...check.
Not sure where we go from here, hoss! It's exactly what I just said.
Me: Stay at home in the model was for infected and immediate family. Social distancing was not a universal stay at home, close businesses, schools, etc. It was a reduction in contacts outside of school and work.
You: Wrong again
Me: Posts model
You: Whatever you are saying above….
Your statement in bold is sufficient to support my claim. The model assumes that most of the measures are in place continuously. If they were all applied multiple times with case triggers, then they were not in place continuously and not used as projected by the model.ATL Bear said:Stay at home in the model was for infected and immediate family. Social distancing was not a universal stay at home, close businesses, schools, etc. It was a reduction in contacts outside of school and work. I posted the exact measures from the model earlier. Any practical review of them shows they were all applied and done so multiple times with case triggers. I have specifically stuck with the UK as the model did.Sam Lowry said:
It's not my burden to guesstimate. The model assumes certain policies are in place (including stay-at-home orders, BTW). Those policies were not in place. If you think for some reason the best-case scenario should still apply, that's on you to prove with more than just speculation.
Your burden is your claim that a) the measures weren't utilized when they were and b) they weren't used as the model forecasted (your guesstimate) when in fact they were in addition to other measures.
The model specifically forecast it with various triggers, not as a continuous application. In fact it even analyzed how long you waited to activate the policy after the trigger. The only recommendations that were assumed consistent was the stay at home when infected (at a 70% compliance) and immediate family members quarantine (50% compliance). Everything else was driven by case triggers and finite time windows (on/off).Sam Lowry said:Your statement in bold is sufficient to support my claim. The model assumes that most of the measures are in place continuously. If they were all applied multiple times with case triggers, then they were not in place continuously and not used as projected by the model.ATL Bear said:Stay at home in the model was for infected and immediate family. Social distancing was not a universal stay at home, close businesses, schools, etc. It was a reduction in contacts outside of school and work. I posted the exact measures from the model earlier. Any practical review of them shows they were all applied and done so multiple times with case triggers. I have specifically stuck with the UK as the model did.Sam Lowry said:
It's not my burden to guesstimate. The model assumes certain policies are in place (including stay-at-home orders, BTW). Those policies were not in place. If you think for some reason the best-case scenario should still apply, that's on you to prove with more than just speculation.
Your burden is your claim that a) the measures weren't utilized when they were and b) they weren't used as the model forecasted (your guesstimate) when in fact they were in addition to other measures.
Uche was very outspoken to have all unvaccinated put into camps.....poetic justice. If you got vaccinated, I would be going to have blood work done, etc...you are a walking time bombFre3dombear said:
Former Jacksonville Jaguars Player Uche Nwaneri Found Dead at 38
Preliminary autopsy results from the Tippecanoe County Coroner show that Nwaneri may have died from a heart attack
This headline just popped up on my feed
38. Suspected heart attack
So we agree that case isolation and home quarantine are assumed to be continuous for up to two years. Also note that "if intensive NPI packages aimed at suppression are not maintained, our analysis suggests that transmission will rapidly rebound, potentially producing an epidemic comparable in scale to what would have been seen had no interventions been adopted."ATL Bear said:The model specifically forecast it with various triggers, not as a continuous application. In fact it even analyzed how long you waited to activate the policy after the trigger. The only recommendations that were assumed consistent was the stay at home when infected (at a 70% compliance) and immediate family members quarantine (50% compliance). Everything else was driven by case triggers and finite time windows (on/off).Sam Lowry said:Your statement in bold is sufficient to support my claim. The model assumes that most of the measures are in place continuously. If they were all applied multiple times with case triggers, then they were not in place continuously and not used as projected by the model.ATL Bear said:Stay at home in the model was for infected and immediate family. Social distancing was not a universal stay at home, close businesses, schools, etc. It was a reduction in contacts outside of school and work. I posted the exact measures from the model earlier. Any practical review of them shows they were all applied and done so multiple times with case triggers. I have specifically stuck with the UK as the model did.Sam Lowry said:
It's not my burden to guesstimate. The model assumes certain policies are in place (including stay-at-home orders, BTW). Those policies were not in place. If you think for some reason the best-case scenario should still apply, that's on you to prove with more than just speculation.
Your burden is your claim that a) the measures weren't utilized when they were and b) they weren't used as the model forecasted (your guesstimate) when in fact they were in addition to other measures.
RE your other reply, the school closings were a separate variable from the social distancing one.
BluesBear said:Uche was very outspoken to have all unvaccinated put into camps.....poetic justice. If you got vaccinated, I would be going to have blood work done, etc...you are a walking time bombFre3dombear said:
Former Jacksonville Jaguars Player Uche Nwaneri Found Dead at 38
Preliminary autopsy results from the Tippecanoe County Coroner show that Nwaneri may have died from a heart attack
This headline just popped up on my feed
38. Suspected heart attack
Yes, we agree on that. The problem is that even if you took the highest R factor, highest trigger point (most icu cases before policy reinstatement), longest off trigger periods before restart, and lowest compliance, the model predicted around 40,000 - 50,000 deaths over 2 years. They hit 130,000 in Year 1 using all of the recommendations plus more. UK schools were only open for about 3 months that entire first year, and they enforced some hard core social distancing policies (see rule of six as one example).Sam Lowry said:So we agree that case isolation and home quarantine are assumed to be continuous for up to two years. Also note that "if intensive NPI packages aimed at suppression are not maintained, our analysis suggests that transmission will rapidly rebound, potentially producing an epidemic comparable in scale to what would have been seen had no interventions been adopted."ATL Bear said:The model specifically forecast it with various triggers, not as a continuous application. In fact it even analyzed how long you waited to activate the policy after the trigger. The only recommendations that were assumed consistent was the stay at home when infected (at a 70% compliance) and immediate family members quarantine (50% compliance). Everything else was driven by case triggers and finite time windows (on/off).Sam Lowry said:Your statement in bold is sufficient to support my claim. The model assumes that most of the measures are in place continuously. If they were all applied multiple times with case triggers, then they were not in place continuously and not used as projected by the model.ATL Bear said:Stay at home in the model was for infected and immediate family. Social distancing was not a universal stay at home, close businesses, schools, etc. It was a reduction in contacts outside of school and work. I posted the exact measures from the model earlier. Any practical review of them shows they were all applied and done so multiple times with case triggers. I have specifically stuck with the UK as the model did.Sam Lowry said:
It's not my burden to guesstimate. The model assumes certain policies are in place (including stay-at-home orders, BTW). Those policies were not in place. If you think for some reason the best-case scenario should still apply, that's on you to prove with more than just speculation.
Your burden is your claim that a) the measures weren't utilized when they were and b) they weren't used as the model forecasted (your guesstimate) when in fact they were in addition to other measures.
RE your other reply, the school closings were a separate variable from the social distancing one.
There is no "reinstatement" in the suppression model. That's my point. Maybe you're looking at the mitigation model.ATL Bear said:Yes, we agree on that. The problem is that even if you took the highest R factor, highest trigger point (most icu cases before policy reinstatement), longest off trigger periods before restart, and lowest compliance, the model predicted around 40,000 - 50,000 deaths over 2 years. They hit 130,000 in Year 1 using all of the recommendations plus more. UK schools were only open for about 3 months that entire first year, and they enforced some hard core social distancing policies (see rule of six as one example).Sam Lowry said:So we agree that case isolation and home quarantine are assumed to be continuous for up to two years. Also note that "if intensive NPI packages aimed at suppression are not maintained, our analysis suggests that transmission will rapidly rebound, potentially producing an epidemic comparable in scale to what would have been seen had no interventions been adopted."ATL Bear said:The model specifically forecast it with various triggers, not as a continuous application. In fact it even analyzed how long you waited to activate the policy after the trigger. The only recommendations that were assumed consistent was the stay at home when infected (at a 70% compliance) and immediate family members quarantine (50% compliance). Everything else was driven by case triggers and finite time windows (on/off).Sam Lowry said:Your statement in bold is sufficient to support my claim. The model assumes that most of the measures are in place continuously. If they were all applied multiple times with case triggers, then they were not in place continuously and not used as projected by the model.ATL Bear said:Stay at home in the model was for infected and immediate family. Social distancing was not a universal stay at home, close businesses, schools, etc. It was a reduction in contacts outside of school and work. I posted the exact measures from the model earlier. Any practical review of them shows they were all applied and done so multiple times with case triggers. I have specifically stuck with the UK as the model did.Sam Lowry said:
It's not my burden to guesstimate. The model assumes certain policies are in place (including stay-at-home orders, BTW). Those policies were not in place. If you think for some reason the best-case scenario should still apply, that's on you to prove with more than just speculation.
Your burden is your claim that a) the measures weren't utilized when they were and b) they weren't used as the model forecasted (your guesstimate) when in fact they were in addition to other measures.
RE your other reply, the school closings were a separate variable from the social distancing one.
THREAD – A Look Back at the Weird Demonization of the Unvaccinated During COVID
— Michael P Senger (@MichaelPSenger) January 3, 2023
Though the fact that COVID vaccines do not prevent transmission was clear from the outset, this myth has been a primary cause of the venom launched at those who’ve refused COVID vaccines. 1/ pic.twitter.com/fWYdRbplmV
Yes there is. It's noted as off trigger. Here's the explanation and table.Sam Lowry said:There is no "reinstatement" in the suppression model. That's my point. Maybe you're looking at the mitigation model.ATL Bear said:Yes, we agree on that. The problem is that even if you took the highest R factor, highest trigger point (most icu cases before policy reinstatement), longest off trigger periods before restart, and lowest compliance, the model predicted around 40,000 - 50,000 deaths over 2 years. They hit 130,000 in Year 1 using all of the recommendations plus more. UK schools were only open for about 3 months that entire first year, and they enforced some hard core social distancing policies (see rule of six as one example).Sam Lowry said:So we agree that case isolation and home quarantine are assumed to be continuous for up to two years. Also note that "if intensive NPI packages aimed at suppression are not maintained, our analysis suggests that transmission will rapidly rebound, potentially producing an epidemic comparable in scale to what would have been seen had no interventions been adopted."ATL Bear said:The model specifically forecast it with various triggers, not as a continuous application. In fact it even analyzed how long you waited to activate the policy after the trigger. The only recommendations that were assumed consistent was the stay at home when infected (at a 70% compliance) and immediate family members quarantine (50% compliance). Everything else was driven by case triggers and finite time windows (on/off).Sam Lowry said:Your statement in bold is sufficient to support my claim. The model assumes that most of the measures are in place continuously. If they were all applied multiple times with case triggers, then they were not in place continuously and not used as projected by the model.ATL Bear said:Stay at home in the model was for infected and immediate family. Social distancing was not a universal stay at home, close businesses, schools, etc. It was a reduction in contacts outside of school and work. I posted the exact measures from the model earlier. Any practical review of them shows they were all applied and done so multiple times with case triggers. I have specifically stuck with the UK as the model did.Sam Lowry said:
It's not my burden to guesstimate. The model assumes certain policies are in place (including stay-at-home orders, BTW). Those policies were not in place. If you think for some reason the best-case scenario should still apply, that's on you to prove with more than just speculation.
Your burden is your claim that a) the measures weren't utilized when they were and b) they weren't used as the model forecasted (your guesstimate) when in fact they were in addition to other measures.
RE your other reply, the school closings were a separate variable from the social distancing one.
Those are the only other variables/recommendations outside of the infected and immediate family stay at home recommendations. Those were definitely in place and only until after mass vaccination were those eased, which was also the study recommendation. And again, the model accounted for a 75 (infected) and 50 (family) percent compliance.Sam Lowry said:
But again, the triggers only apply to social distancing and school closures. "Other policies are assumed to start in late March and remain in place."
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:43 year olds dropping dead these days is the new normal. Probably just another case of Sudden Adult Death Syndrome. Time to move along now!Osodecentx said:Gangsta Boo vaccinated.Fre3dombear said:
Another friend of mine just spent 9 days in the hospital with
Inflammation and fluid around the heart
Blood clots in lungs and legs
Triathlete. Never had this issue in life before.
Vaxed.
Congrats
Gangsta Boo dead.
They'll tell you it was a drug overdose, but ...
Tom was a great dude. Last time I saw him was at a Texas Tech vs. Baylor game at JerryWorld. Not sure, but I think Tom had an undiagnosed heart condition. Could be the same for Damar Hamlin. Praying for him and his family.Mitch Blood Green said:RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:43 year olds dropping dead these days is the new normal. Probably just another case of Sudden Adult Death Syndrome. Time to move along now!Osodecentx said:Gangsta Boo vaccinated.Fre3dombear said:
Another friend of mine just spent 9 days in the hospital with
Inflammation and fluid around the heart
Blood clots in lungs and legs
Triathlete. Never had this issue in life before.
Vaxed.
Congrats
Gangsta Boo dead.
They'll tell you it was a drug overdose, but ...
Last time I saw Tom Muecke, he had just completed a marathon. Looked great! He died of a heart attack weeks later (pre-COVID). Sadly, some people die young.
We're talking about government mandates, not just recommendations. Where did you see these in place?ATL Bear said:Those are the only other variables/recommendations outside of the infected and immediate family stay at home recommendations. Those were definitely in place and only until after mass vaccination were those eased, which was also the study recommendation. And again, the model accounted for a 75 (infected) and 50 (family) percent compliance.Sam Lowry said:
But again, the triggers only apply to social distancing and school closures. "Other policies are assumed to start in late March and remain in place."
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/charts/uk-government-coronavirus-lockdownsSam Lowry said:We're talking about government mandates, not just recommendations. Where did you see these in place?ATL Bear said:Those are the only other variables/recommendations outside of the infected and immediate family stay at home recommendations. Those were definitely in place and only until after mass vaccination were those eased, which was also the study recommendation. And again, the model accounted for a 75 (infected) and 50 (family) percent compliance.Sam Lowry said:
But again, the triggers only apply to social distancing and school closures. "Other policies are assumed to start in late March and remain in place."
I'm sorry, but that's not very informative. You're showing me about 30 times when different restrictions were imposed or lifted. Which ones were in place continuously? To review the specific policies in question:ATL Bear said:https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/charts/uk-government-coronavirus-lockdownsSam Lowry said:We're talking about government mandates, not just recommendations. Where did you see these in place?ATL Bear said:Those are the only other variables/recommendations outside of the infected and immediate family stay at home recommendations. Those were definitely in place and only until after mass vaccination were those eased, which was also the study recommendation. And again, the model accounted for a 75 (infected) and 50 (family) percent compliance.Sam Lowry said:
But again, the triggers only apply to social distancing and school closures. "Other policies are assumed to start in late March and remain in place."
Harrison Bergeron said:
The stats may not bear this out ... but there seem to be a lot of seemingly healthy young men afflicted with cardiac-related issues the last few years.
You're arguing something I'm not, and you're applying a standard that isn't part of the model. These were recommendations not required government mandating. But the government did mandate many of the recommendations, and the overreaching guidance on isolation was always there.Sam Lowry said:I'm sorry, but that's not very informative. You're showing me about 30 times when different restrictions were imposed or lifted. Which ones were in place continuously? To review the specific policies in question:ATL Bear said:https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/charts/uk-government-coronavirus-lockdownsSam Lowry said:We're talking about government mandates, not just recommendations. Where did you see these in place?ATL Bear said:Those are the only other variables/recommendations outside of the infected and immediate family stay at home recommendations. Those were definitely in place and only until after mass vaccination were those eased, which was also the study recommendation. And again, the model accounted for a 75 (infected) and 50 (family) percent compliance.Sam Lowry said:
But again, the triggers only apply to social distancing and school closures. "Other policies are assumed to start in late March and remain in place."
-Mandatory isolation of suspected cases
-Mandatory quarantine of families
-Mandatory distancing of entire population 2/3 of the time
I'm applying the standard that is part of the best-case scenario. It's not zero contact, but it is continuous. Banning mass gatherings wasn't projected to make much difference. As it turns out, neither did school closures. The model assumes that children transmit to each other at the same rate as adults. We now know that isn't true, but there was no way to know at the time. I think lockdowns made a difference--we've disagreed on that before, so I'm glad you changed your mind--but they were immediately politicized and sporadically applied.ATL Bear said:You're arguing something I'm not, and you're applying a standard that isn't part of the model. These were recommendations not required government mandating. But the government did mandate many of the recommendations, and the overreaching guidance on isolation was always there.Sam Lowry said:I'm sorry, but that's not very informative. You're showing me about 30 times when different restrictions were imposed or lifted. Which ones were in place continuously? To review the specific policies in question:ATL Bear said:https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/charts/uk-government-coronavirus-lockdownsSam Lowry said:We're talking about government mandates, not just recommendations. Where did you see these in place?ATL Bear said:Those are the only other variables/recommendations outside of the infected and immediate family stay at home recommendations. Those were definitely in place and only until after mass vaccination were those eased, which was also the study recommendation. And again, the model accounted for a 75 (infected) and 50 (family) percent compliance.Sam Lowry said:
But again, the triggers only apply to social distancing and school closures. "Other policies are assumed to start in late March and remain in place."
-Mandatory isolation of suspected cases
-Mandatory quarantine of families
-Mandatory distancing of entire population 2/3 of the time
That's a timeline of institution of specific policies starts, easing of strictness and restarting of many of them. Some form of social distancing was in place all the way until mid 2022. During the first 18 months of the pandemic most indoor gatherings were banned and then limited to small sizes. Schools were face to face for only 3 months from April 2020 through April 2021. So as I've said, the recommendations were in place and many directly government mandated. The model didn't say zero contact, it forecasted the impact of a reduction outside of work and school.
