ATL Bear said:
Osodecentx said:
ATL Bear said:
Osodecentx said:
ATL Bear said:
Osodecentx said:
https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2022/two-years-covid-vaccines-prevented-millions-deaths-hospitalizations
Two Years of U.S. COVID-19 Vaccines Have Prevented Millions of Hospitalizations and Deaths
It has been two years since the first COVID-19 vaccine was given to a patient in the United States. Since then, the U.S. has administered more than 655 million doses 80 percent of the population has received at least one dose with the cumulative effect of preventing more than 18 million additional hospitalizations and more than 3 million additional deaths.
What was this compared against? How many deaths and hospitalizations occurred due to the vaccines inability to slow spread? Vaccines came out in December 2020.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/weekly-hospital-admissions-covid
2 things:
1. There is a discussion on the link I posted which may shed some light
2. Your post doesn't contradict or call into question the conclusion that many deaths and hospitalizations were avoided because of the Covid vaccine. I can argue that your post supports the assertion
Their model is trash, and the discussion is simply saying they used published efficacies, which have been all over the place, and a factual error assumption that Omicron is "mild" because of vaccinations. Meanwhile, actual data shows that unvaccinated people are not getting severe COVID anywhere close to initial variants, in fact the vaccinated and unvaccinated are very close in outcome ratios (hospitalization and death) for most of 2022.
They did this same exercise a year ago, but that model failed to meet reality. https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2021/dec/us-covid-19-vaccination-program-one-year-how-many-deaths-and
This is the same type of junk modeling you see with climate models. Take an extremely complicated multi variable process, boil it down to a few data points, and create your outcome.
Here's one data point that shows the absurdity. The hospitalizations and deaths under the No vaccine model are over 4 times greater than the ratios that actually occurred prior to wide spread vaccine availability. In fact their model reached 18,000 deaths in a day late 2021, when the worst we ever had was just over 4,000 during delta and prior to full vaccination roll out (Jan 2021). They carried those absurd ratios into 2022 in this latest model.
Thanks. I'm looking
Do you believe the vaccines helped, hurt, or made no difference?
I believe they stimulated the immune system in vulnerable groups reducing at some level severe outcome. I believe this was a pandemic of the immuno-compromised. So in that way I believe they did help reduce death and hospitalizations.
I don't believe it had any meaningful impact on the reduction of spread (outside of Alpha), therefore making utilization in groups not at risk for severe outcome less necessary, I also believe the mRNA approach did not turn out to be the answer as anticipated, and believe we need other solutions. I'm hopeful COVID is more endemic now, and therapeutics can be the answer for the vast majority. I think how we've handled children through this process has been a travesty. I'm not anti-vaxx at all, I'm anti dogmatic approach to this vaccine built on the foundation of irrational fear and government rigidity to it. I want a better solution, not an artificial propping up of this one. Models like this are instruments in that propping up.
There are other variables that play in with the age group in question - young (under 40).
1 - What else are they doing? Just from the observational data I see day to day, no different than reading of people dying young, there are numerous activities this age group engages in that is questionable. Just a little list from my watching my kids and the age group at the gym which I see 6 days a week.
1 - Vaping - Taking heavy metals into the lungs seems a healthy thing to do.
2 - Caffeine - Between the Red Bull, Monster, White Claw, Pre-Work Out, Thermo's (fat loss), and the Test Booster I see taking daily the caffeine load is huge. Each one is about 200 mg of caffeine a dose!
3 - Hyper-intense working out - Ever go to a cross-fit class? Doing as many Olympic lifts as you can in 2 minutes for 30 minute sessions 5 days a week is safe. I am seeing "fitness experts" putting people through this **** until they are throwing up. It has gotten extreme out there. Then throw in the "age doesn't matter group" and you have the makings of a disaster.
4 - Extreme physiques - Sorry, it is not normal to be ripped to the point of seeing 6-packs, 365 days a year. Seeing 20 somethings with shredded abs, all the time. Having to post your "great body" to influence year round, must be stressful. I see more phones recording sets than ever. It is ridiculous.
My point, is that this age group are stressing their bodies to the point where they are breaking down. Maybe it is only 1 out of 800. But, there are numerous variables and combination of variables here. The "famous" athletes are training in ways that by itself will weed out all but the genetically gifted. Throw the stress of a virus, a genetic defect, or even an extreme supplement load for an extended period.
All of this is observational, but I have been observing for 40+ years in gyms and this is the worst I have seen it. It used to be only the "competitor" types, now everyone is an influencer. Vaccine may not be helping, but I am not sure it is the lone variable.
