2024

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KaiBear
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 8:20a, 7/22/24
Another rational post.

You are on a roll.

+ 1
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boognish_bear
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9:50a, 7/22/24
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Waco1947
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 9:54a, 7/22/24
4th and Inches said:
Waco1947 said:
4th and Inches said:
Waco1947 said:
boognish_bear said:
The anchor leg

sad to see those buffoons
great comment from the open minded person we all know and love
Am I to be open to buffoonery?
abuffoon is A ludicrous or bumbling person; a fool.

To say, "You fool!" to a brother or sister in that day was the equivalent of saying, "Damn you!" to someone today. We do not have the power or the right to condemn anyone to hell.
Non sequitur. At any rate I don't believe in a literal hell as you know. How can I condemn someone to a place I don't believe in? You're one who seems to have the keys to kingdom. I believe By grace we are all saved.
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Waco1947
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In reply to boognish_bear • 9:55a, 7/22/24
boognish_bear said:
Whitmer gets my vote
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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to boognish_bear • 10:56a, 7/22/24
boognish_bear said:
I hope he is goaded into debating. Hopefully this is incorrect and he is willing to debate.
Astros in Home Stretch Geaux Texans
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boognish_bear
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11:01a, 7/22/24
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Aliceinbubbleland • 11:27a, 7/22/24
Aliceinbubbleland said:
boognish_bear said:
I hope he is goaded into debating. Hopefully this is incorrect and he is willing to debate.
He won't he doesn't need to. He showed in Primary, he won't unless he has to. Up to Harris to now show that he needs to come to the Debate Stage. No goading will do it, just her eating into his lead.
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boognish_bear
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11:48a, 7/22/24
I would guess Dems weren't considering a 2 female ticket any way

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whiterock
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 12:35p, 7/22/24
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
2% is within the margin of error. What you are saying it is a dead heat. That is worrisome.
its not a dead heat at Dem +2

Thats a GOP win if the swings hold as + for Trump
True, I love you optomism...
Dynamics of the Electoral College favor the GOP. They can win the EC without winning the Popular Vote quite a bit easier than Dems. The equation the Dems have to cobble together to get to 270 usually give them something like a 3-4% lead in the PV. A tie in the popular vote is usually a warning sign for Dems that something isn't right in their EV math.

expect a rash of polls showing Harris narrowing the gap. Part of that will be a genuine sympathy bump. Part of it will be a genuine increase in Democrat enthusiasm (just from ending the uncertainty). I'd also expect that to fade, for 2 reasons: 1) Harris is VP and owns all of the Biden policy failures. 2) Harris is Harrisv= not a very accomplished candidate. Biden-Harris campaign has run $100m+ in swing states so far and their deficit has been growing (slightly). Meanwhile, Trump has outraised them and has not weighed in with any significant campaign ads. So the GOP has some upside ahead, too. For now, the problem Trump faces is that he doesn't know who to attack. If he spends $50m reducing Kamala's numbers and then the Dems nominate someone else, that's wasted money. Plus the Dems will be getting all kinds of earned media from the convention drama. So over the next two weeks, it will be harder for Trump to get "on-message."

Big money spends tend to move needles. When it doesn't, most common reason is that voters know the candidate and have made up their minds. Both Biden and Trump were basically in that situation, leading to a higher than normal numbers of undecideds (a larger then normal percentage of whom would not likely vote, the rest very breaking late against the incumbent). Kamala isn't quite so thoroughly branded. She does, at least theoretically, have a chance to redefine herself. Dems do, at least theoretically, have a chance to make the race about something other than a dreadful policy record on all the issues driving the cycle. But Trump has several hundred million dollars for use to define Kamala as Joe in a skirt, so it will not be easy for them.


Harris has to convince people that Biden held her down and didn't let her speak as herself or assign her anything with any authority. Border Czar in name only.

If Biden is furious about the "turning their back on him" now, it is going to get worse. Only way to make Harris's performance look like it wasn't her fault is to assign the blame to Joe.

Be interesting to see how she speaks today. If she is articulate, it will help her.
She will for sure attempt to unburden herself from what has been
I am curious. I watched her in the Senate, I don't agree with her politics but never thought of her as ditzy or inarticulate. She skewered Biden in 2020 debate. Then the VP years and she was all over the board, giggling all the time and making no sense.

I have been in situations where you have to wordsmith, massage and force ideas to fit what someone else wants. It creates gibberish. I hate it when in that situation. I am very curious to see how she comes off when SHE is directing the message, not fitting what Jill wants.

Bailing on Biden now is a shrewd move, he can't win. This re-opens the election AND takes the attention off Trump. The DNC Convention will be the most interesting in years and the first real Convention in decades. Not a made for TV show. Will be interesting to see how the reality TV effect plays.

This is normal in one way, GOP got a boost from their Convention. Now the Dems turn...

Agree. She was quite good in the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings in the Senate. Then made a fool of herself when she ran for POTUS and continued the nonsense as VPOTUS. I didn't spot her unlikeability factor. Still don't entirely get it. She's handsome and personable. But it is what it is.

Here's a troubling poll for her from a reputable blue polling outfit. Dems may regret what they've done.


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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 12:39p, 7/22/24
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
2% is within the margin of error. What you are saying it is a dead heat. That is worrisome.
its not a dead heat at Dem +2

Thats a GOP win if the swings hold as + for Trump
True, I love you optomism...
Dynamics of the Electoral College favor the GOP. They can win the EC without winning the Popular Vote quite a bit easier than Dems. The equation the Dems have to cobble together to get to 270 usually give them something like a 3-4% lead in the PV. A tie in the popular vote is usually a warning sign for Dems that something isn't right in their EV math.

expect a rash of polls showing Harris narrowing the gap. Part of that will be a genuine sympathy bump. Part of it will be a genuine increase in Democrat enthusiasm (just from ending the uncertainty). I'd also expect that to fade, for 2 reasons: 1) Harris is VP and owns all of the Biden policy failures. 2) Harris is Harrisv= not a very accomplished candidate. Biden-Harris campaign has run $100m+ in swing states so far and their deficit has been growing (slightly). Meanwhile, Trump has outraised them and has not weighed in with any significant campaign ads. So the GOP has some upside ahead, too. For now, the problem Trump faces is that he doesn't know who to attack. If he spends $50m reducing Kamala's numbers and then the Dems nominate someone else, that's wasted money. Plus the Dems will be getting all kinds of earned media from the convention drama. So over the next two weeks, it will be harder for Trump to get "on-message."

Big money spends tend to move needles. When it doesn't, most common reason is that voters know the candidate and have made up their minds. Both Biden and Trump were basically in that situation, leading to a higher than normal numbers of undecideds (a larger then normal percentage of whom would not likely vote, the rest very breaking late against the incumbent). Kamala isn't quite so thoroughly branded. She does, at least theoretically, have a chance to redefine herself. Dems do, at least theoretically, have a chance to make the race about something other than a dreadful policy record on all the issues driving the cycle. But Trump has several hundred million dollars for use to define Kamala as Joe in a skirt, so it will not be easy for them.


Harris has to convince people that Biden held her down and didn't let her speak as herself or assign her anything with any authority. Border Czar in name only.

If Biden is furious about the "turning their back on him" now, it is going to get worse. Only way to make Harris's performance look like it wasn't her fault is to assign the blame to Joe.

Be interesting to see how she speaks today. If she is articulate, it will help her.
She will for sure attempt to unburden herself from what has been
I am curious. I watched her in the Senate, I don't agree with her politics but never thought of her as ditzy or inarticulate. She skewered Biden in 2020 debate. Then the VP years and she was all over the board, giggling all the time and making no sense.

I have been in situations where you have to wordsmith, massage and force ideas to fit what someone else wants. It creates gibberish. I hate it when in that situation. I am very curious to see how she comes off when SHE is directing the message, not fitting what Jill wants.

Bailing on Biden now is a shrewd move, he can't win. This re-opens the election AND takes the attention off Trump. The DNC Convention will be the most interesting in years and the first real Convention in decades. Not a made for TV show. Will be interesting to see how the reality TV effect plays.

This is normal in one way, GOP got a boost from their Convention. Now the Dems turn...

Agree. She was quite good in the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings in the Senate. Then made a fool of herself when she ran for POTUS and continued the nonsense as VPOTUS. I didn't spot her unlikeability factor. Still don't entirely get it. She's handsome and personable. But it is what it is.

Here's a troubling poll for her from a reputable blue polling outfit. Dems may regret what they've done.


I think the timing is playing into it. We are basically in August. If Biden bowed out in April??? Also, I may be wrong but this seems like a LATE Dem Convention, I am thinking it is typically in late June?
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EatMoreSalmon
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 12:46p, 7/22/24
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
2% is within the margin of error. What you are saying it is a dead heat. That is worrisome.
its not a dead heat at Dem +2

Thats a GOP win if the swings hold as + for Trump
True, I love you optomism...
Dynamics of the Electoral College favor the GOP. They can win the EC without winning the Popular Vote quite a bit easier than Dems. The equation the Dems have to cobble together to get to 270 usually give them something like a 3-4% lead in the PV. A tie in the popular vote is usually a warning sign for Dems that something isn't right in their EV math.

expect a rash of polls showing Harris narrowing the gap. Part of that will be a genuine sympathy bump. Part of it will be a genuine increase in Democrat enthusiasm (just from ending the uncertainty). I'd also expect that to fade, for 2 reasons: 1) Harris is VP and owns all of the Biden policy failures. 2) Harris is Harrisv= not a very accomplished candidate. Biden-Harris campaign has run $100m+ in swing states so far and their deficit has been growing (slightly). Meanwhile, Trump has outraised them and has not weighed in with any significant campaign ads. So the GOP has some upside ahead, too. For now, the problem Trump faces is that he doesn't know who to attack. If he spends $50m reducing Kamala's numbers and then the Dems nominate someone else, that's wasted money. Plus the Dems will be getting all kinds of earned media from the convention drama. So over the next two weeks, it will be harder for Trump to get "on-message."

Big money spends tend to move needles. When it doesn't, most common reason is that voters know the candidate and have made up their minds. Both Biden and Trump were basically in that situation, leading to a higher than normal numbers of undecideds (a larger then normal percentage of whom would not likely vote, the rest very breaking late against the incumbent). Kamala isn't quite so thoroughly branded. She does, at least theoretically, have a chance to redefine herself. Dems do, at least theoretically, have a chance to make the race about something other than a dreadful policy record on all the issues driving the cycle. But Trump has several hundred million dollars for use to define Kamala as Joe in a skirt, so it will not be easy for them.


Harris has to convince people that Biden held her down and didn't let her speak as herself or assign her anything with any authority. Border Czar in name only.

If Biden is furious about the "turning their back on him" now, it is going to get worse. Only way to make Harris's performance look like it wasn't her fault is to assign the blame to Joe.

Be interesting to see how she speaks today. If she is articulate, it will help her.
She will for sure attempt to unburden herself from what has been
I am curious. I watched her in the Senate, I don't agree with her politics but never thought of her as ditzy or inarticulate. She skewered Biden in 2020 debate. Then the VP years and she was all over the board, giggling all the time and making no sense.

I have been in situations where you have to wordsmith, massage and force ideas to fit what someone else wants. It creates gibberish. I hate it when in that situation. I am very curious to see how she comes off when SHE is directing the message, not fitting what Jill wants.

Bailing on Biden now is a shrewd move, he can't win. This re-opens the election AND takes the attention off Trump. The DNC Convention will be the most interesting in years and the first real Convention in decades. Not a made for TV show. Will be interesting to see how the reality TV effect plays.

This is normal in one way, GOP got a boost from their Convention. Now the Dems turn...

Agree. She was quite good in the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings in the Senate. Then made a fool of herself when she ran for POTUS and continued the nonsense as VPOTUS. I didn't spot her unlikeability factor. Still don't entirely get it. She's handsome and personable. But it is what it is.

Here's a troubling poll for her from a reputable blue polling outfit. Dems may regret what they've done.


I think the timing is playing into it. We are basically in August. If Biden bowed out in April??? Also, I may be wrong but this seems like a LATE Dem Convention, I am thinking it is typically in late June?
There have been several August conventions over the years. First one in 1956. One was in early September. Most have been in June or July, but not in a few election cycles.
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boognish_bear
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1:48p, 7/22/24
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1:54p, 7/22/24
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Jack Bauer
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2:31p, 7/22/24
Oh good - white women are here to save us.

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Jack Bauer
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2:34p, 7/22/24
Dems are seriously in the honeymoon phase with Kamala....let's see how that goes.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 2:37p, 7/22/24
Jack Bauer said:
Oh good - white women are here to save us.

only person less likable thank hillary clinton is Kamala Harris.. she didnt win a single primary elector ever and she thinks she can win it all?
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2:48p, 7/22/24
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3:03p, 7/22/24
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historian
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 3:35p, 7/22/24
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
2% is within the margin of error. What you are saying it is a dead heat. That is worrisome.
its not a dead heat at Dem +2

Thats a GOP win if the swings hold as + for Trump
True, I love you optomism...
poll that just came out is Trump +5 against Harris

That probably will increase
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Jack Bauer
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In reply to boognish_bear • 3:36p, 7/22/24
boognish_bear said:
They have no choice, Biden is not going to survive his term so she will be President regardless.
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boognish_bear
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3:38p, 7/22/24
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 3:45p, 7/22/24
Jack Bauer said:
boognish_bear said:
They have no choice, Biden is not going to survive his term so she will be President regardless.

Biden will likely continue to live at least through the Spring, unless Hillary has called in a hit or Jill flies into a rage and does something drastic. Joe will be fine unles s he overdosed on ice cream.
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boognish_bear
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4:24p, 7/22/24
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KaiBear
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In reply to boognish_bear • 5:09p, 7/22/24
boognish_bear said:


Amazing how this piece of 'democracy' has come about.

Why bother to have primaries anymore ?
Conventions …..to what point ?

A dozen elites in the Democratic Party control everything.
Party rank and file voters have been completely bypassed.

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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to boognish_bear • 5:35p, 7/22/24
Logical points and well thought out print by NRSC unlike Trump's outburst "dumb as a rock". He makes it so damned difficult to like when he could be a lock if he would just STFU!!!!

Some of you who think he has this in the bag are probably going to be disappointed.
Astros in Home Stretch Geaux Texans
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9:42p, 7/22/24
Although last week could have be the literal end for Trump, it also provided him the best PR he could ever receive. It will never get better for him PR wise. And now he is the head fossil in the race, running against an energized opponent. As stated in Drudge today, he peaked too early. He won't be able to help himself and will say God only knows what about Kamala, which could cost him a chunk of the black vote he's managed to wrest away from the dems. I think she's going to win.
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JXL
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 9:47p, 7/22/24
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
4th and Inches said:
FLBear5630 said:
boognish_bear said:
2% is within the margin of error. What you are saying it is a dead heat. That is worrisome.
its not a dead heat at Dem +2

Thats a GOP win if the swings hold as + for Trump
True, I love you optomism...
Dynamics of the Electoral College favor the GOP. They can win the EC without winning the Popular Vote quite a bit easier than Dems. The equation the Dems have to cobble together to get to 270 usually give them something like a 3-4% lead in the PV. A tie in the popular vote is usually a warning sign for Dems that something isn't right in their EV math.

expect a rash of polls showing Harris narrowing the gap. Part of that will be a genuine sympathy bump. Part of it will be a genuine increase in Democrat enthusiasm (just from ending the uncertainty). I'd also expect that to fade, for 2 reasons: 1) Harris is VP and owns all of the Biden policy failures. 2) Harris is Harrisv= not a very accomplished candidate. Biden-Harris campaign has run $100m+ in swing states so far and their deficit has been growing (slightly). Meanwhile, Trump has outraised them and has not weighed in with any significant campaign ads. So the GOP has some upside ahead, too. For now, the problem Trump faces is that he doesn't know who to attack. If he spends $50m reducing Kamala's numbers and then the Dems nominate someone else, that's wasted money. Plus the Dems will be getting all kinds of earned media from the convention drama. So over the next two weeks, it will be harder for Trump to get "on-message."

Big money spends tend to move needles. When it doesn't, most common reason is that voters know the candidate and have made up their minds. Both Biden and Trump were basically in that situation, leading to a higher than normal numbers of undecideds (a larger then normal percentage of whom would not likely vote, the rest very breaking late against the incumbent). Kamala isn't quite so thoroughly branded. She does, at least theoretically, have a chance to redefine herself. Dems do, at least theoretically, have a chance to make the race about something other than a dreadful policy record on all the issues driving the cycle. But Trump has several hundred million dollars for use to define Kamala as Joe in a skirt, so it will not be easy for them.


Harris has to convince people that Biden held her down and didn't let her speak as herself or assign her anything with any authority. Border Czar in name only.

If Biden is furious about the "turning their back on him" now, it is going to get worse. Only way to make Harris's performance look like it wasn't her fault is to assign the blame to Joe.

Be interesting to see how she speaks today. If she is articulate, it will help her.
She will for sure attempt to unburden herself from what has been
I am curious. I watched her in the Senate, I don't agree with her politics but never thought of her as ditzy or inarticulate. She skewered Biden in 2020 debate. Then the VP years and she was all over the board, giggling all the time and making no sense.

I have been in situations where you have to wordsmith, massage and force ideas to fit what someone else wants. It creates gibberish. I hate it when in that situation. I am very curious to see how she comes off when SHE is directing the message, not fitting what Jill wants.

Bailing on Biden now is a shrewd move, he can't win. This re-opens the election AND takes the attention off Trump. The DNC Convention will be the most interesting in years and the first real Convention in decades. Not a made for TV show. Will be interesting to see how the reality TV effect plays.

This is normal in one way, GOP got a boost from their Convention. Now the Dems turn...

Agree. She was quite good in the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings in the Senate. Then made a fool of herself when she ran for POTUS and continued the nonsense as VPOTUS. I didn't spot her unlikeability factor. Still don't entirely get it. She's handsome and personable. But it is what it is.

Here's a troubling poll for her from a reputable blue polling outfit. Dems may regret what they've done.


I think the timing is playing into it. We are basically in August. If Biden bowed out in April??? Also, I may be wrong but this seems like a LATE Dem Convention, I am thinking it is typically in late June?



I believe the party out of power traditionally has its convention first (but I could be wrong)
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Oldbear83
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In reply to TenBears • 9:55p, 7/22/24
Thanks for the post, which Harris team member wrote it I wonder?

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to JXL • 10:04p, 7/22/24
I thought they flipped every four years? One party first and other party second and reverse parties next convention.
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KaiBear
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In reply to TenBears • 10:40p, 7/22/24
TenBears said:
Although last week could have be the literal end for Trump, it also provided him the best PR he could ever receive. It will never get better for him PR wise. And now he is the head fossil in the race, running against an energized opponent. As stated in Drudge today, he peaked too early. He won't be able to help himself and will say God only knows what about Kamala, which could cost him a chunk of the black vote he's managed to wrest away from the dems. I think she's going to win.


If Harris wins how will it alter the Border Policies she controlled as Birder Czar ?

Another 5 million illegals, fewer ….more ?
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Osodecentx
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In reply to Aliceinbubbleland • 3:39a, 7/23/24
Aliceinbubbleland said:
I thought they flipped every four years? One party first and other party second and reverse parties next convention.


Yes
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