2024

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Cobretti
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10:11a, 7/22/23
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whiterock
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In reply to Mothra • 8:01a, 7/23/23
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Trump Gets Bad News From His Own Pollster's Firm
Story by Katherine Fung 2h ago


Former President Donald Trump on Friday received some bad news from the firm of his own pollster about the 2024 presidential race.

A Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll surveying voters in 40 competitive House districts across the nation found that while President Joe Biden has an edge over Trump in those crucial swing districts, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was a bigger threat to the incumbent.

While Biden led Trump 47 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical matchup, Biden and DeSantis were to be tied at 45 percent. Trump and DeSantis are both gunning to be the Republican nominee. DeSantis has been the only other GOP candidate to break away from the crowded field, but polls continue to give Trump a wide lead over DeSantis, suggesting that he's still the favorite among Republican voters.


Nobody is polling the same universe.

We both agree and have posted here many times that polls are all over the place. But, for a good while, folks were saying Trump was consistently polling ahead of Biden, and that was never true - not nationally or in the key states. That remains concerning to me given all of Biden's troubles.

Yahoo also had Trump down 4-5 BTW.
I continue to be convinced that while Trump may be up against a firm ceiling, Biden has a hard floor at least 10 points below his current level. He was weak sauce in his prime and is up against things which are bad at the moment, beyond his control, and certain to deteriorate - age and the economy*. And that's before we get to all the scandal issues, which are not likely containable.

*have a buddy who is a big player in scrap metals, which is a leading indicator. Trends have him battening down hatches. All indicators suggest a rough ride ahead.




Hope you're right but I just don't see it.
nobody wants to see an ugly contest. Sadly, we seem destined to enjoy the spectacle.
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Osodecentx
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In reply to Mothra • 2:20p, 7/23/23
Mothra said:
sombear said:
Worse



Looks to me like that bump he got when he was being indicted is wearing off and people are remembering what a piece he is.
Trump's Favorability among Republicans Slides amid Criminal Indictments: Report

Donald Trump's favorability among Republican and Republican-leaning voters has fallen from 75 percent in July 2022 to 66 percent in July 2023, according to a new Pew poll.

Conversely, while only 24 percent of Republican voters surveyed thought of Trump unfavorably in July 2022, that is now up to 32 percent in the latest poll.

Among the broader voting public, the former president's unfavorability has remained largely stable. Whereas 60 percent of Americans did not hold a strong opinion of him in July 2022, today, that is only 63 percent following his legal woes.

Trump's favorability ratings place him in a similar league with President Joe Biden, who went from 43 percent to 39 percent during the same period. Vice President Kamala Harris experienced a similar decline in support.

The findings support similar public opinion research conducted in recent months. While the backing of the former president slipped from 53 percent in May to 47 percent in June, Trump still led the field of Republican hopefuls by a wide margin, a recent CNN poll found.

However, over half of Republicans polled insisted that Trump's conduct did not impact their perception of him. Instead, many view his "effectiveness" as a president superseding such concerns.

[url=https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trumps-favorability-among-republicans-slides-amid-criminal-indictments-report/][/url]
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/trumps-favorability-among-republicans-slides-amid-criminal-indictments-report/

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KaiBear
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In reply to whiterock • 7:33p, 7/23/23
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Trump Gets Bad News From His Own Pollster's Firm
Story by Katherine Fung 2h ago


Former President Donald Trump on Friday received some bad news from the firm of his own pollster about the 2024 presidential race.

A Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll surveying voters in 40 competitive House districts across the nation found that while President Joe Biden has an edge over Trump in those crucial swing districts, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was a bigger threat to the incumbent.

While Biden led Trump 47 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical matchup, Biden and DeSantis were to be tied at 45 percent. Trump and DeSantis are both gunning to be the Republican nominee. DeSantis has been the only other GOP candidate to break away from the crowded field, but polls continue to give Trump a wide lead over DeSantis, suggesting that he's still the favorite among Republican voters.


Nobody is polling the same universe.

We both agree and have posted here many times that polls are all over the place. But, for a good while, folks were saying Trump was consistently polling ahead of Biden, and that was never true - not nationally or in the key states. That remains concerning to me given all of Biden's troubles.

Yahoo also had Trump down 4-5 BTW.
I continue to be convinced that while Trump may be up against a firm ceiling, Biden has a hard floor at least 10 points below his current level. He was weak sauce in his prime and is up against things which are bad at the moment, beyond his control, and certain to deteriorate - age and the economy*. And that's before we get to all the scandal issues, which are not likely containable.

*have a buddy who is a big player in scrap metals, which is a leading indicator. Trends have him battening down hatches. All indicators suggest a rough ride ahead.




Hope you're right but I just don't see it.
nobody wants to see an ugly contest. Sadly, we seem destined to enjoy the spectacle.
Enjoy ?
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4th and Inches
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In reply to KaiBear • 7:45p, 7/23/23
KaiBear said:
whiterock said:
Mothra said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Trump Gets Bad News From His Own Pollster's Firm
Story by Katherine Fung 2h ago


Former President Donald Trump on Friday received some bad news from the firm of his own pollster about the 2024 presidential race.

A Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research poll surveying voters in 40 competitive House districts across the nation found that while President Joe Biden has an edge over Trump in those crucial swing districts, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was a bigger threat to the incumbent.

While Biden led Trump 47 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical matchup, Biden and DeSantis were to be tied at 45 percent. Trump and DeSantis are both gunning to be the Republican nominee. DeSantis has been the only other GOP candidate to break away from the crowded field, but polls continue to give Trump a wide lead over DeSantis, suggesting that he's still the favorite among Republican voters.


Nobody is polling the same universe.

We both agree and have posted here many times that polls are all over the place. But, for a good while, folks were saying Trump was consistently polling ahead of Biden, and that was never true - not nationally or in the key states. That remains concerning to me given all of Biden's troubles.

Yahoo also had Trump down 4-5 BTW.
I continue to be convinced that while Trump may be up against a firm ceiling, Biden has a hard floor at least 10 points below his current level. He was weak sauce in his prime and is up against things which are bad at the moment, beyond his control, and certain to deteriorate - age and the economy*. And that's before we get to all the scandal issues, which are not likely containable.

*have a buddy who is a big player in scrap metals, which is a leading indicator. Trends have him battening down hatches. All indicators suggest a rough ride ahead.




Hope you're right but I just don't see it.
nobody wants to see an ugly contest. Sadly, we seem destined to enjoy the spectacle.
Enjoy ?
"enjoy" in the not enjoyable way.. much like when you say I am off to get a root canal, and the other person says enjoy!
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
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boognish_bear
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7:58a, 7/25/23
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Jack Bauer
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6:46p, 7/25/23
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Redbrickbear
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11:57a, 7/26/23
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11:54p, 7/27/23



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Jack Bauer
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 12:19a, 7/28/23
Redbrickbear said:




Hmmm, there's an Indian guy who has been running for President for the last 4 months and has incredible momentum. I should run as an Indian guy too!

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whiterock
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 7:00a, 7/29/23
Redbrickbear said:



White House as the Temple of Doom does have a certain ring to it.
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whiterock
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10:58a, 7/30/23
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Osodecentx
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In reply to whiterock • 11:04a, 7/30/23
whiterock said:
Define "independent leaners"
Independents who are not self identified Republicans but frequently vote for Republicans?
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Osodecentx
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11:40a, 7/30/23

Former president Donald Trump's political group spent more than $40 million on legal costs in the first half of 2023 to defend Trump, his advisers and others, according to people familiar with the matter, financing legal work that has drawn scrutiny from prosecutors about potential conflicts of interest between Trump and witnesses.

Save America, the former president's PAC, is expected to disclose about $40.2 million in legal spending in a filing expected Monday, said the people familiar with the filing, who like others interviewed spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss information that has not been made public.

That total is more than any other expense the PAC has incurred during Trump's 2024 presidential campaign and, according to federal filings from earlier this month, more than Trump's campaign raised in the second quarter of 2023. It will bring the PAC's post-presidential legal spending to about $56 million, as Trump faces a federal indictment in Florida, state charges in New York, and the prospect of additional criminal indictments in Washington and Fulton County, Ga.

Trump's advisers say the costs of providing lawyers for dozens of people are necessary and will continue mushrooming as investigations continue, trials are scheduled and the possibility of more charges looms.

Steven Cheung, a spokesman for the former president, said Save America was paying legal fees for those who worked for Trump "to protect these innocent people from financial ruin and prevent their lives from being completely destroyed" by what he called "unlawful harassment" from investigators.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/29/trump-lawyers-pac-deoliveira-loyal/
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whiterock
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In reply to Osodecentx • 7:15a, 7/31/23
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Define "independent leaners"
Independents who are not self identified Republicans but frequently vote for Republicans?
Every pollster has a little different definition, by virtue of looking at slightly different sets of metrics to make the call.

Gallup doesn't do a ton of political polling, but is typically pretty accurate and above all is impeccably non-partisan. So I wouldn't worry about the number of points up/down. That can vary by at least the margin of accuracy. Look at the trends. And what we see is what we would expect. Dems are ****ing up by the numbers and it's going to cost them at the polls.
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Redbrickbear
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5:10p, 7/31/23
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sombear
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 5:18p, 7/31/23
Redbrickbear said:
Those countries kill the opposition, so thinking it wouldn't be much of a news story . . . .
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to sombear • 7:09p, 7/31/23
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
Those countries kill the opposition, so thinking it wouldn't be much of a news story . . . .


But it actually is news.

We reminded all the time by the media how Putin assassinates his rivals, or how China and Iran imprison opposition leaders.

But I guess when it's us it's just different.

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sombear
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 7:25p, 7/31/23
Redbrickbear said:
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
Those countries kill the opposition, so thinking it wouldn't be much of a news story . . . .


But it actually is news.

We reminded all the time by the media how Putin assassinates his rivals, or how China and Iran imprison opposition leaders.

But I guess when it's us it's just different.

You mean like my party tried to do to Clinton and Biden? Trump's the only one stupid enough to make it easy for his opponents.

Wake me up when there is news, like an assassination . . . .
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to sombear • 9:38p, 7/31/23
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
Those countries kill the opposition, so thinking it wouldn't be much of a news story . . . .


But it actually is news.

We reminded all the time by the media how Putin assassinates his rivals, or how China and Iran imprison opposition leaders.

But I guess when it's us it's just different.

You mean like my party tried to do to Clinton and Biden? Trump's the only one stupid enough to make it easy for his opponents.

Wake me up when there is news, like an assassination . . . .

You never heard of JFK or RFK?
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KaiBear
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In reply to sombear • 9:58p, 7/31/23
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
Those countries kill the opposition, so thinking it wouldn't be much of a news story . . . .


But it actually is news.

We reminded all the time by the media how Putin assassinates his rivals, or how China and Iran imprison opposition leaders.

But I guess when it's us it's just different.

You mean like my party tried to do to Clinton and Biden? Trump's the only one stupid enough to make it easy for his opponents.

Wake me up when there is news, like an assassination . . . .
FWIW to her dying day Jackie Kennedy believed LBJ was responsible for the assassination of her husband.
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Redbrickbear
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7:22p, 8/1/23
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Redbrickbear
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8:20p, 8/2/23
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Cobretti
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9:09p, 8/2/23
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Cobretti • 9:26p, 8/2/23
Cobretti said:
Wellllll, DeSantis will be 'Presidential'. Newsome? Closer to the Clown from IT.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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Cobretti
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2:55p, 8/8/23

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Jack Bauer
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In reply to Cobretti • 8:50p, 8/8/23
Cobretti said:


Cue the MSM firefighters!

DEBUNKED!!! NO EVIDENCE OF WRONGDOING! NO VOTES INCORRECTLY COUNTED!!!
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Jack Bauer
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10:02p, 8/8/23
What the....gas stations giving out FREE gas??

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whiterock
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7:23a, 8/10/23
Interesting dynamic here…

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Mothra
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In reply to whiterock • 7:50a, 8/10/23
whiterock said:
Interesting dynamic here…



Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more.

I have no doubt Trump will be nominee. And when the campaign becomes the total **** show it's destined to become, Trump will once again remind the majority of Americans why they voted against him.

And voila! Four more years of democrat rule. R's are done if it's trump again. Hopefully they can get their act together in 2028 and trump is no longer around.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Mothra • 7:58a, 8/10/23
"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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Mothra
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 8:59a, 8/10/23
No.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to Mothra • 9:25a, 8/10/23
Mothra said:
No.
In that case, I consider your claim false.


This is not 2020, nor are conditions as you seem to imagine.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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sombear
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 9:39a, 8/10/23
Oldbear83 said:
"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to sombear • 10:17a, 8/10/23
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
"Yes but the suburban soccer mom likes Biden, and especially Newsom, way more."

Please provide links to at least three polls that show that at this time.

Exit polls from the 2020 election found that Biden beat former President Donald Trump decisively among suburban women, an outcome Republicans feared after they lost seats in the House two years earlier.

Do you think suburban women have come back to Trump after J6?

RNC's and Trump's own internals have him losing more ground in the burbs, particularly with women.
A lot has changed in the last 3 years. Put aside your Trump-hate and pay attention.

If you want to say Trump has lost ground, you better have more than your claim. Mothra has no link to show what you are claiming, do you?

Or are you so gaslit that you don't understand what has changed?
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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