When an Orwellian authoritarian accuses someone of threatening democracy you know the Klanocrats are trying to discontinue democracy.

Sam Lowry said:

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whiterock said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Cobretti said:

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CNN's Harry Enten: "The polling indicates that Trump is, in fact, in a stronger position at this point than he was during the entire 2020 campaign...If we had state level polling, I wouldn’t even be surprised if Trump were ahead in the swing states that are most important." pic.twitter.com/fzTd3JYskv

— MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) August 20, 2023

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The Dems will see to it that Donald Trump will never, ever win another election. By any means necessary, - legal and/ or illegal. The blueprint from the 2020 Election will be repeated. Who is going to stop them? Nobody.

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I can understand where you are coming from on that question.

But what Republican WOULD the Dems "allow" to get elected?

If you believe that part in bold, the you are tacitly admitting that the GOP will never win another election due to the system being rigged against them.

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That's going to be the excuse for every defeat from here on out. It obviates any need to re-think Republican strategy, which is actually quite convenient...for the Democrats.

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GOP cant be the party of NO if they are in charge.. they have been trained to be the minority party and have no idea what to do when placed in charge..

Its the same excuse Dems use every time they lose an election..

Republican strategy is so bad that it allowed Trump to win the primary in 16, and 8 years later they still dont have a freakin platform to present besides not Biden. GOP leadership is worthless and continually paddle with only one dang oar

whiterock said:

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🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL

PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023

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This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:

A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.

"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."

Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."

---

One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....

Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.

---

Ordinary Joe in IA is most likely not voting for Trump, just FYI. And while I agree with you that to some extent Trump has been unfairly persecuted, he also shoulders much of the blame for bringing this on himself and making himself a very easy target. The idea that Dems will go after those other than Trump who don't engage in his tired antics simply isn't supported by the evidence to date. Time will tell if you are right, but the idea that they'll just prosecute someone else if it's not Trump is not a conclusion supported by any evidence.

---

The problem with your last point there is that the charges against him are not supported by any evidence, either.

sombear said:

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whiterock said:

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🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL

PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023

---

This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.

---

Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:

A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.

"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."

Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."

---

One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....

Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.

---

Ordinary Joe in IA is most likely not voting for Trump, just FYI. And while I agree with you that to some extent Trump has been unfairly persecuted, he also shoulders much of the blame for bringing this on himself and making himself a very easy target. The idea that Dems will go after those other than Trump who don't engage in his tired antics simply isn't supported by the evidence to date. Time will tell if you are right, but the idea that they'll just prosecute someone else if it's not Trump is not a conclusion supported by any evidence.

---

The problem with your last point there is that the charges against him are not supported by any evidence, either.

---

I'm still with you on the election-related claims. But, how can you say this about the documents and obstruction? It's been months, and I've still not found a single legal scholar or expert arguing that, if true, the document/obstruction allegations are not crimes.

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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sombear said:

---

Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:

A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.

"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."

Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."

---

One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....

Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.

---

Ordinary Joe in IA is most likely not voting for Trump, just FYI. And while I agree with you that to some extent Trump has been unfairly persecuted, he also shoulders much of the blame for bringing this on himself and making himself a very easy target. The idea that Dems will go after those other than Trump who don't engage in his tired antics simply isn't supported by the evidence to date. Time will tell if you are right, but the idea that they'll just prosecute someone else if it's not Trump is not a conclusion supported by any evidence.

---

The problem with your last point there is that the charges against him are not supported by any evidence, either.

---

Unfortunately for Trump, that's simply not accurate. If you listen to any of the legal commentators who have analyzed the charges, the documents charge is strong, and it's clear he mishandled documents. Bob Barr is a guy I respect, and he's said that Trump is going to get convicted most likely on this one, as the evidence is so clear. Now, it's a mere process crime, so I doubt he gets any time for that, but he could. We will see.

However, the most danger for Trump is the charge in GA under RICO. RICO was designed to go after the mob, and it's so squishy and gray that it's one of the easiest charges prosecutors can use to convict. And given Trump's behavior in GA, which was despicable if not criminal, everything I've read has said a conviction under RICO is quite likely. As I said, it's VERY easy to convict under RICO. And he's going to have most likely an unfriendly jury in GA.

Heard Barr and Shapiro talking about it a few days ago, and they believe this is the most likely conviction of all of the charges given how gray RICO is. And if that happens, since this is in state court, Trump can't serve out his time as president before heading to jail. Instead, he would literally have to go to jail as president in GA. That means most likely his VP becomes acting president while Trump is serving time - most likely for the remainder of his days.

That is why we need to move on from Trump. The **** show that this is going to be in a year or two is going to be incredible. Unprecedented things are now occurring.

whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

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sombear said:

---

Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:

A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.

"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."

Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."

---

One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....

Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.

---

Ordinary Joe in IA is most likely not voting for Trump, just FYI. And while I agree with you that to some extent Trump has been unfairly persecuted, he also shoulders much of the blame for bringing this on himself and making himself a very easy target. The idea that Dems will go after those other than Trump who don't engage in his tired antics simply isn't supported by the evidence to date. Time will tell if you are right, but the idea that they'll just prosecute someone else if it's not Trump is not a conclusion supported by any evidence.

---

The problem with your last point there is that the charges against him are not supported by any evidence, either.

---

That would be great if it were true. Unfortunately, it's not even close to true.

whiterock said:

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sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

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🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL

PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023

---

This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.

---

Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.

---

I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.

Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.

sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL

PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023

---

This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.

---

Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.

---

I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.

Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.

---

I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......

OsoCoreyell said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Mothra said:

---

whiterock said:

---

sombear said:

---

Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:

A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.

"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."

Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."

---

One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....

Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.

---

Ordinary Joe in IA is most likely not voting for Trump, just FYI. And while I agree with you that to some extent Trump has been unfairly persecuted, he also shoulders much of the blame for bringing this on himself and making himself a very easy target. The idea that Dems will go after those other than Trump who don't engage in his tired antics simply isn't supported by the evidence to date. Time will tell if you are right, but the idea that they'll just prosecute someone else if it's not Trump is not a conclusion supported by any evidence.

---

The problem with your last point there is that the charges against him are not supported by any evidence, either.

---

That would be great if it were true. Unfortunately, it's not even close to true.

---

The RICO stuff is a pile of wild-ass allegations turning every political campaign strategy session into a criminal enterprise.....it's an office-holder abusing power to indict an opponent on allegations that completely legal activity is somehow a criminal conspiracy because the office-holder doesn't like it. The whole thing, office holder and charges, are a dire threat to the First Amendment liberties of half the country.

The documents charge is almost as bad, but I will allow there is more substance in that there does appear to be documents in the wrong place. But Trump will argue an affirmative defense and given the venue of the trial has a good chance of success.

Do you really think the courts are going to allow all this to come to trial before the election?
I'm skeptical.
Not that a conviction will matter much, or at least change any minds.

whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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whiterock said:

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🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL

PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023

---

This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.

---

Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.

---

I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.

Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.

---

I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......

---

Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .

sombear said:

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whiterock said:

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sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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whiterock said:

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🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL

PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023

---

This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.

---

Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.

---

I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.

Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.

---

I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......

---

Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .

---

There are several that not only have him ahead in support, but winning independents by a margin greater than the overall margin.

I'm not contesting that "approvals" matter, just noting that "approval rate" is not synonymous with "who do you intend to vote for." That is particularly true given the "margin of error" separation between the two guys in almost every poll, regardless of who's on top or bottom.

We will indeed have people making the eminently rational choice to vote for Trump despite thinking Biden is a nicer guy.

Hunter 2024

whiterock said:

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sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

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sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

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sombear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL

PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
.
(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
.
H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023

---

This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.

---

Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.

---

I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.

Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.

---

I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......

---

Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .

---

There are several that not only have him ahead in support, but winning independents by a margin greater than the overall margin.

I'm not contesting that "approvals" matter, just noting that "approval rate" is not synonymous with "who do you intend to vote for." That is particularly true given the "margin of error" separation between the two guys in almost every poll, regardless of who's on top or bottom.

We will indeed have people making the eminently rational choice to vote for Trump despite thinking Biden is a nicer guy.

---

I've always thought approvals were better barometers than head-to-head, but see your point.

Theory:
Brown woman is criticizing black woman to appeal for votes from white men.

Actual:
Kamala Harris is the worst VP in the last 100 years and can't put 2 thoughts together.

Al Sharpton argues @NikkiHaley is betraying her brown skin by criticizing Kamala Harris: “She’s also playing to certain elements of the Republican Party on race that you talk about President Harris, who is — who is she? A black woman and a — and woman. And I think for Nikki… pic.twitter.com/MPbmwGyRgL

— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) August 28, 2023

🚨 NATIONAL POLL: @wearebigvillage (B-)

PRES:
(R) Trump 44% (+1)
(D) Biden 43%
.
(D) Biden 43% (+3)
(R) DeSantis 40%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 57% (+43)
DeSantis 14%
Ramaswamy 9%
Pence 6%
Haley 5%
.
H2H:
Trump 70% (+40)
DeSantis 30%
——
RVs | 702 (R's) | 8/25-26https://t.co/guWQbkV17P

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2023

🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL

PRES:
(D) Biden 45% (+1)
(R) Trump 44%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 59% (+45)
DeSantis 14%
Ramaswamy 8%
Pence 6%
Haley 3%
Christie 2%
Scott 2%
——
DEM PRES:
Biden 66% (+53)
Kennedy Jr 13%
Williamson 7%
——@Harris_X_ | 2,013 RV | 8/24-26https://t.co/X8aWCSFfmt

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2023

🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL

PRES:
(D) Biden 43% (+1)
(R) Trump 42%
.
(D) Biden 43% (+4)
(R) DeSantis 39%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 58% (+44)
DeSantis 14%
Ramaswamy 10%
Pence 6%
Haley 5%
Christie 3%
Scott 2%
Hutchinson 1%

Morning Consult | 5,000 RV | 8/25-27 pic.twitter.com/LYMMir7Eon

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2023

Youngkin making a case for being VP

Virginia 2024: Trump holds 35-point lead for Republican Nomination

Trump 48% (+1)
DeSantis 13% (-15)
Youngkin 9% (new)
Pence 7%
Scott 6% (+5)
Ramaswamy 5% (new)
Christie 3% (new)
Haley 2% (-5)

[Change vs May]@RoanokeCollege | August 6-15https://t.co/zfE522zLb9 pic.twitter.com/1MorMAUje9

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2023

whiterock said:

---

Youngkin making a case for being VP

Virginia 2024: Trump holds 35-point lead for Republican Nomination

Trump 48% (+1)
DeSantis 13% (-15)
Youngkin 9% (new)
Pence 7%
Scott 6% (+5)
Ramaswamy 5% (new)
Christie 3% (new)
Haley 2% (-5)

[Change vs May]@RoanokeCollege | August 6-15https://t.co/zfE522zLb9 pic.twitter.com/1MorMAUje9

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2023

---

Why does Virginia hate Nikki Haley? Am a little skeptical about this poll.

As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?

4th and Inches said:

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As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?

---

It's amazing what a box with sounds can convince someone to believe. Many will even inject a worthless experiment into themselves. Sometimes multiple times.

4th and Inches said:

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As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?

---

The worst president in my lifetime is ahead of Trump in a poll 43-42

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Osodecentx said:

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4th and Inches said:

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As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?

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The worst president in my lifetime is ahead of Trump in a poll 43-42

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

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thats not what i meant and you know it.. why cant any GOP canidate come close?

Also, 43-42 is trash as neither are close to 50 and well within the MOE

4th and Inches said:

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As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?

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Please inform me under what circumstances does Trump beat Gavin in the 2024 general election .

KaiBear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?

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Please inform me under what circumstances does Trump beat Gavin in the 2024 general election .

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well, has Gavin declared? If he isnt running then he cant beat Trump..

Osodecentx said:

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4th and Inches said:

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As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?

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The worst president in my lifetime is ahead of Trump in a poll 43-42

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

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That means the race is competitive and we need all hands on deck.

KaiBear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?

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Please inform me under what circumstances does Trump beat Gavin in the 2024 general election .

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no current polling that I can find, but I would suspect this would be in the ballpark:
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/poll-says-Newsom-beats-Trump-and-DeSantis-in-2024-17284970.php

I wouldn't be surprised to see that his national polling numbers right now would probably look a bit better than either Biden's or Harris's, but then he's facing the same dynamic RDS did back at the beginning of this year - not well known ergo has low disapproval numbers, which might (and probably will) change as he gets better known. But he's hardly a phenom. He had to defend himself in a recall election two years ago. California's record is not something he could point to as a way to demonstrate executive excellence (as can RDS).

Dems have a problem with Biden on the ticket, and they have a problem with him off the ticket. His obvious successor, Harris, is probably unelectable, yet they can't toss her over without angering important parts of the base - progressives and black women.

Similar dilemma for GOP. Trump has problems with low-propensity independent voters which would make him unelectable against a strong center-left candidate, but HUGE parts of the GOP base will be angered if he isn't on the ticket. Fortunately, Democrats do not have anything remotely approaching a strong, center-left candidate that could win a primary.

So here we are. On the cusp of an ugly contest. No fun. But we can win. If our own moderates will get their head out of their asses and swallow the bitter pill of having to publicly associate with Wal-Mart shoppers.

Do you honestly think the Democrats will be allowed to push aside Kamala and risk burning the country down? No way. They bring in the Cafeteria Czar. Michelle Obama hates our country more than Biden.

4th and Inches said:

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Osodecentx said:

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4th and Inches said:

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As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?

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The worst president in my lifetime is ahead of Trump in a poll 43-42
2 incumbent presidents below 50%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

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thats not what i meant and you know it.. why cant any GOP canidate come close?

Also, 43-42 is trash as neither are close to 50 and well within the MOE

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I know what you meant. Do you know what I meant?

Trump is running as an incumbent with a loyal following that seems to adore him more every time he is indicted, but he can't get above 50% approval. I thought his policies were good. Why is he in a dead heat with the worst president in my lifetime?

When Biden backs out the Dems will have a vigorous primary while Republicans watch their beloved DJT sit in court. Meanwhile Independents look for alternatives.

4th and Inches said:

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As much as yall claim everybody hates Trump.. why is it that nobody can poll even close to him?

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It's not that everybody hates Trump. It's that half the country hates Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, while less than half of the country - but a majority of Republicans - think the guy can do no wrong.

Bottom line is Trump is a lightning rod. He has a cult-like following among a large segment of Republicans, which is why he's way up in primary polls, but has an approval rating of only 39% among the general populace. Because of his cult following and because there are so many different Republican contenders who will syphon votes away from each other, Trump will undoubtedly be the Republican nominee (unless something completely unforeseen happens), and then lose soundly in the general election to the Dem nominee, whether Biden/Newsom/Whomever, as he will galvanize the opposition, who will turn out in droves to vote against him (just like in 2020).

If you are a conservative, it's the perfect recipe for disaster.

whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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whiterock said:

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🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL

PRES:
(R) Trump 43%
(D) Biden 38%
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(D) Biden 37%
(R) DeSantis 34%
——
GOP PRES:
Trump 60%
DeSantis 16%
Ramaswamy 6%
Pence 4%
Scott 3%
Haley 3%
Christie 1%
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H2H:
Trump 67%
DeSantis 26%@premisedata | 08/17-21 | RVshttps://t.co/wTV05DnFpF

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 22, 2023

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This is a sham poll. Among other things, it has Trump almost even among Blacks and dominating young voters. No other polls have had anything close to that.

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Outlier for sure. Posted mostly because neither 538 nor CBS has ever been Trump friendly. And some here see 538 in particular as reputable. And I think they beat the RCP average in the midterms, IIRC. So we can't ash-can it. It has to sit on the table to review and force questions about what is going on.

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I was not a fan of 538 in the early years, but now it is primarily a poll aggregator.

Unrelated to 538, 3 polls out showing Biden up on Trump 3-6 points. Two new Biden approval polls, 47 and 43. And generic ballot Dem 45 GOP 42. No bueno.

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I think at this point we could find a poll to please anyone. All over the map......

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Show me 2 actual pollsters that have Trump's approvals higher than Biden and I'll at least partially agree . . . .

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There are several that not only have him ahead in support, but winning independents by a margin greater than the overall margin.

I'm not contesting that "approvals" matter, just noting that "approval rate" is not synonymous with "who do you intend to vote for." That is particularly true given the "margin of error" separation between the two guys in almost every poll, regardless of who's on top or bottom.

We will indeed have people making the eminently rational choice to vote for Trump despite thinking Biden is a nicer guy.

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While I don't disagree with this, you must surely realize that the same holds true for Biden. While there are a lot of Democrats and independents who don't approve of Biden, because they hate Trump with the passion of a thousand burning suns, they will make the choice to vote for Biden, despite thinking he's done a pretty crappy job as president.

When our only hope for getting our unlikable candidate elected is that the other candidate will be less likable, we are in pretty serious trouble.

whiterock said:

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OsoCoreyell said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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Amazing, yet consistent with my earlier post. This is from the preeminent Iowa pollster:

A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump's indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump's support increase before their very eyes.

"Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being 'actively considered' by 55% of those polled," the Des Moines Register reported. "Among those polled after the Georgia indictment about two-thirds of the total respondents that climbed to 67%."

Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, "This is the strongest evidence I've seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him."

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One need not be a philosopher savant to understand that, for all his flaws, he has been wildly unfairly persecuted by opponents who claim moral high ground while abusing their offices, thereby proving they are an even bigger problem than he is. If they will do that to him, they will do that to anyone who opposes them. They will always find a reason to justify doing it to anyone who disagrees with their worldview.....social justice, climate justice, just-because justice.....

Ordinary Joe in IA is showing far more emotional maturity than the neverTrump caucus.

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Ordinary Joe in IA is most likely not voting for Trump, just FYI. And while I agree with you that to some extent Trump has been unfairly persecuted, he also shoulders much of the blame for bringing this on himself and making himself a very easy target. The idea that Dems will go after those other than Trump who don't engage in his tired antics simply isn't supported by the evidence to date. Time will tell if you are right, but the idea that they'll just prosecute someone else if it's not Trump is not a conclusion supported by any evidence.

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The problem with your last point there is that the charges against him are not supported by any evidence, either.

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That would be great if it were true. Unfortunately, it's not even close to true.

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The RICO stuff is a pile of wild-ass allegations turning every political campaign strategy session into a criminal enterprise.....it's an office-holder abusing power to indict an opponent on allegations that completely legal activity is somehow a criminal conspiracy because the office-holder doesn't like it. The whole thing, office holder and charges, are a dire threat to the First Amendment liberties of half the country.

The documents charge is almost as bad, but I will allow there is more substance in that there does appear to be documents in the wrong place. But Trump will argue an affirmative defense and given the venue of the trial has a good chance of success.

Do you really think the courts are going to allow all this to come to trial before the election?
I'm skeptical.
Not that a conviction will matter much, or at least change any minds.

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I don't necessarily disagree on the RICO charges, but this same prosecutor has used the squishy RICO statute to obtain guilty convictions on pretty flimsy charges under RICO. And therein lies the problem - RICO is so squishy, it's a real danger to Trump, especially in front of a jury comprised mostly of Democrats. He should be very concerned about that one.

Contrary to your assertions, the documents charge isn't bad at all. It's virtually a slam dunk for the prosecutors. It's clear Trump violated the law here - yet another unforced error and self-inflicted wound on his part. As you said, Trump's only hope is he finds a jury that shares his politics.

The RICO case will indeed go to trial quickly. Trump can't do much to stop it. And while I agree with you a conviction won't matter much, how is Trump going to run for president if he is in a state prison in GA?

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Do you honestly think the Democrats will be allowed to push aside Kamala and risk burning the country down? No way. They bring in the Cafeteria Czar. Michelle Obama hates our country more than Biden.

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Seems like a no-brainer.

The Obamas are loved by white middle class women.