2024

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historian
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Trump got an enthusiastic greeting when he went to Harlem:

“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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Waco1947 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?
Yes, lol, I do but it is sad my Texas counts for nothing.
very binary way of viewing your vote

You can always enjoy voting for crazy ass liberals in the local elections
I enjoy voting for sane Democrats
Sane Democrat is an oxymoron these days. They are EXTREMELY rare. John Fetterman has become the voice of reason of your party. I never saw that coming!
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
whiterock
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whiterock
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First time Trump has ever led in a Civics national poll + look at the independents numbers + midwest numbers (where most battleground states are).

Header commentary from Civics:

Trump Takes Lead in Latest Civiqs Poll 2024

In a recent national general election poll by Civiqs, Donald Trump has edged past Joe Biden with 45% to Biden's 44%, marking the first time Trump has led Biden in a Civiqs poll. Conducted from April 13-16, 2024, with 1,161 registered voters and a margin of error of +/- 1.6%, the poll shows Trump leading among independents at 46% to Biden's 35% and in the Midwest with 58% to Biden's 32%. Biden maintains a strong lead among Black voters at 87% to Trump's 4% and leads among 18-29 year-olds with 50% to Trump's 36%. The results have sparked discussions and speculations about the potential outcomes of the 2024 presidential election.


Oldbear83
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Waco1947 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?
Yes, lol, I do but it is sad my Texas counts for nothing.
very binary way of viewing your vote

You can always enjoy voting for crazy ass liberals in the local elections
I enjoy voting for sane Democrats
Which is it, sane or Democrat? Both is not an option anymore.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
4th and Inches
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Waco1947 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?
Yes, lol, I do but it is sad my Texas counts for nothing.
very binary way of viewing your vote

You can always enjoy voting for crazy ass liberals in the local elections
I enjoy voting for sane Democrats
i used to, i havent met one recently..
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

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#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
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FLBear5630
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4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?


Funny how any poll showing that Trump may be losing support is meaningless.
4th and Inches
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FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?


Funny how any poll showing that Trump may be losing support is meaningless.
its a national poll.. we dont vote nationally

He lost the popular by 2 and won in 16 by 77k

He lost the popular by 4-5 and lost in 20 by 76k

He is winning all the battleground polls but one..

Also, its like 6 months away from election day..
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
FLBear5630
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4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?


Funny how any poll showing that Trump may be losing support is meaningless.
its a national poll.. we dont vote nationally

He lost the popular by 2 and won in 16 by 77k

He lost the popular by 4-5 and lost in 20 by 76k

He is winning all the battleground polls but one..

Also, its like 6 months away from election day..
Of course it is. When the early National polls came out and showed him ahead it was proof Trump should be the Candidate. When the same argument was used, anyone that said them had TDS.

He may not be the lock you guys think. He is a highly flawed and polarizing candidate. He may make for good entertainment, but those numbers will close as we get closer to pulling the handle in the election booth.

I am expecting the "be prepared for the Dems to steal the election" line to start in a few months.

We are down to these three, what a friggin mess.
Whiskey Pete
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FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?


Funny how any poll showing that Trump may be losing support is meaningless.
its a national poll.. we dont vote nationally

He lost the popular by 2 and won in 16 by 77k

He lost the popular by 4-5 and lost in 20 by 76k

He is winning all the battleground polls but one..

Also, its like 6 months away from election day..
Of course it is. When the early National polls came out and showed him ahead it was proof Trump should be the Candidate. When the same argument was used, anyone that said them had TDS.

He may not be the lock you guys think. He is a highly flawed and polarizing candidate. He may make for good entertainment, but those numbers will close as we get closer to pulling the handle in the election booth.

I am expecting the "be prepared for the Dems to steal the election" line to start in a few months.

We are down to these three, what a friggin mess.
If Trump should win, I'll be expecting the "collusion", "Illegitimate", "The Vote was Suppressed" line from the left. I'll also expect to cities to burn when the collective left lose their sh*t
FLBear5630
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Whiskey Pete said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?


Funny how any poll showing that Trump may be losing support is meaningless.
its a national poll.. we dont vote nationally

He lost the popular by 2 and won in 16 by 77k

He lost the popular by 4-5 and lost in 20 by 76k

He is winning all the battleground polls but one..

Also, its like 6 months away from election day..
Of course it is. When the early National polls came out and showed him ahead it was proof Trump should be the Candidate. When the same argument was used, anyone that said them had TDS.

He may not be the lock you guys think. He is a highly flawed and polarizing candidate. He may make for good entertainment, but those numbers will close as we get closer to pulling the handle in the election booth.

I am expecting the "be prepared for the Dems to steal the election" line to start in a few months.

We are down to these three, what a friggin mess.
If Trump should win, I'll be expecting the "collusion", "Illegitimate", "The Vote was Suppressed" line from the left. I'll also expect to cities to burn when the collective left lose their sh*t
I am sure there will be that part of the Left that will react like idiots. Neither Left or Right has a monopoly on poor behavior. You think the GOP will ever get a real conservative Speaker?
4th and Inches
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FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?


Funny how any poll showing that Trump may be losing support is meaningless.
its a national poll.. we dont vote nationally

He lost the popular by 2 and won in 16 by 77k

He lost the popular by 4-5 and lost in 20 by 76k

He is winning all the battleground polls but one..

Also, its like 6 months away from election day..
Of course it is. When the early National polls came out and showed him ahead it was proof Trump should be the Candidate. When the same argument was used, anyone that said them had TDS.

He may not be the lock you guys think. He is a highly flawed and polarizing candidate. He may make for good entertainment, but those numbers will close as we get closer to pulling the handle in the election booth.

I am expecting the "be prepared for the Dems to steal the election" line to start in a few months.

We are down to these three, what a friggin mess.
it was pointed out that Trump never had the lead in a national poll in 16 and 20

You TDSers made it some big issue

You have alot of issues.. therapy might help.

Who is president barely effects any of us on this forum. This country has way bigger issues than who is president

Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
whiterock
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The changes in the race are mostly within the margin of error. Essentially static race, tied nationally, leaning Trump in the swing states.

Redbrickbear
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FLBear5630 said:

Whiskey Pete said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?


Funny how any poll showing that Trump may be losing support is meaningless.
its a national poll.. we dont vote nationally

He lost the popular by 2 and won in 16 by 77k

He lost the popular by 4-5 and lost in 20 by 76k

He is winning all the battleground polls but one..

Also, its like 6 months away from election day..
Of course it is. When the early National polls came out and showed him ahead it was proof Trump should be the Candidate. When the same argument was used, anyone that said them had TDS.

He may not be the lock you guys think. He is a highly flawed and polarizing candidate. He may make for good entertainment, but those numbers will close as we get closer to pulling the handle in the election booth.

I am expecting the "be prepared for the Dems to steal the election" line to start in a few months.

We are down to these three, what a friggin mess.
If Trump should win, I'll be expecting the "collusion", "Illegitimate", "The Vote was Suppressed" line from the left. I'll also expect to cities to burn when the collective left lose their sh*t
You think the GOP will ever get a real conservative Speaker?


Probably unlikely to see a Joseph Cannon ever again…sad

[At the time of Cannon's election, the Speaker of the House concurrently held the chair of the Rules Committee, which determined under what rules and restrictions bills could be debated, amended, and voted on, and, in some cases, whether they would be allowed on the floor at all. As such, Cannon effectively controlled every aspect of the House's agenda: bills reached the floor of the house only if Cannon approved of them, and then in whatever form he determined with Cannon himself deciding whether and to what extent the measures could be debated and amended. Cannon also reserved to himself the right to appoint not only the chairs of the various House committees, but also all of the committees' members, and (despite the seniority system that had begun to develop) used that power to appoint his allies and proteges to leadership positions while punishing those who opposed his legislation.

Cannon wielded the Speaker's authority with unprecedented severity. While his predecessor Thomas Brackett Reed was noted for his dramatic expansion of the Speaker's authority, Cannon distinguished himself by the manner in which he wielded that authority. According to historian Booth Mooney, "The deadly rapier wielded by Reed gave way to a bludgeon, which at first he used only to knock down Democrats." Though Reed had been lampooned as a "Czar," press treatment of "Uncle Joe" Cannon was far more critical during his first term as Speaker. Cannon was criticized by the Democratic press for the arbitrary exercise of his considerable power; on one voice vote, he ruled, "The ayes make the most noise, but the nays have it." On another occasion, Representative Cordell Hull attempted to offer an income tax amendment to a tariff bill, and Cannon simply ignored him. When one Representative was asked by a constituent for a copy of the House Rules, the Representative simply sent back a picture of Speaker Cannon. When confronted with criticisms directly, Cannon would respond that the power he exercised was good for the country…

…the press, which denounced him as a tyrant and obstacle to every piece of progressive legislation introduced in the prior thirty years.]



whiterock
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Waco1947
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As the Speaker during most of the presidencies of Theodore Roosevelt and William Howard Taft, Cannon was an obstacle to the progressive policies advanced by Roosevelt and later abandoned by Taft. A revolt against Cannon's authority as Speaker, led by George W. Norris, was a contributing factor to the Republican Party split in the elections of 1910 and 1912 and led to significant reforms to the House rules.
Waco1947 ,la
boognish_bear
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GrowlTowel
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boognish_bear said:


Do you see a conflict between those two statements?

Because there isn't.
Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
boognish_bear
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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boognish_bear said:


Mike Pence has put more people to sleep than Mike Lindell.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
boognish_bear
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

boognish_bear said:


Mike Pence has put more people to sleep than Mike Lindell.


I would take boring ass Pence over Trump 1,000 times over
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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boognish_bear said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

boognish_bear said:


Mike Pence has put more people to sleep than Mike Lindell.


I would take boring ass Pence over Trump 1,000 times over
I wanted DeSantis.

It comes down to a simple choice. The narcissistic ass without Dementia vs. the man with Dementia. A no brainer (pun intended).
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
boognish_bear
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Redbrickbear
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boognish_bear said:




He knows how the game is played

You either ban this stuff completely.

Or you jump in and learn how to use the system to your advantage
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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Redbrickbear said:

boognish_bear said:




He knows how the game is played

You either ban this stuff completely.

Or you jump in and learn how to use the system to your advantage
Vote early. Vote often.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
Redbrickbear
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Redbrickbear said:

boognish_bear said:




He knows how the game is played

You either ban this stuff completely.

Or you jump in and learn how to use the system to your advantage
Vote early. Vote often.



boognish_bear
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Redbrickbear said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Redbrickbear said:

boognish_bear said:




He knows how the game is played

You either ban this stuff completely.

Or you jump in and learn how to use the system to your advantage
Vote early. Vote often.






That movie is so damn good
historian
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Redbrickbear said:

boognish_bear said:




He knows how the game is played

You either ban this stuff completely.

Or you jump in and learn how to use the system to your advantage
Vote early. Vote often.

That's the Democrats playbook. They will throw in violence, too, in some years. See 2020.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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historian said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Redbrickbear said:

boognish_bear said:




He knows how the game is played

You either ban this stuff completely.

Or you jump in and learn how to use the system to your advantage
Vote early. Vote often.

That's the Democrats playbook. They will throw in violence, too, in some years. See 2020.
Can't wait until the Democrat National Convention in Chicago. The ragheads will be out in force. Popcorn ready. It should be the last nail in the coffin for China Joe's reelection hopes.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
Redbrickbear
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boognish_bear said:

Redbrickbear said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Redbrickbear said:

boognish_bear said:




He knows how the game is played

You either ban this stuff completely.

Or you jump in and learn how to use the system to your advantage
Vote early. Vote often.






That movie is so damn good


Daniel Day-Lewis goes hard
historian
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

historian said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Redbrickbear said:

boognish_bear said:




He knows how the game is played

You either ban this stuff completely.

Or you jump in and learn how to use the system to your advantage
Vote early. Vote often.

That's the Democrats playbook. They will throw in violence, too, in some years. See 2020.
Can't wait until the Democrat National Convention in Chicago. The ragheads will be out in force. Popcorn ready. It should be the last nail in the coffin for China Joe's reelection hopes.

In theory. But underestimate the Dems willingness and ability to lie, steal, & cheat to win. They have no morality and no respect for the rule of law or the opinions of anyone who disagrees with them. In other words, they have nothing but a raw lust for power. This and their arrogance proved they cannot be trusted with power because they will only abuse it. They have proven this over and over again for many years, especially the last 10-20.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?


Funny how any poll showing that Trump may be losing support is meaningless.
I certainly haven't said that. i note the full range.

There are general factors: variance between polling firms is largely a function of different assumptions about "who is going to vote." Polling firms have to FIRST make assumptions about who is going to vote, then poll that cohort. That's why "all adults" polls tend to be less accurate than "registered voters" polls, which tend to be less accurate than "likely voters." The "all adult" polls are not irrelevant, but they are also full of people who are not likely to vote.

Then there are factors unique to the cycle. This one (and the last few & next few) will be even harder to poll than normal, give the political realignments going on - the leftward move of the educated & higher income parts of the electorate (particularly whites) and related rightward move of the working classes of all races. The most obvious manifestation of this can be seen with low-propensity voters. My entire adult life, Republicans were a smaller cohort of higher-propensity voters, and Democrats were the low-propensity voters......Dems tended to win elections with ginormous turnout, while Republicans tended to win the lower turnout cycles. That is the genesis of moderate Republican aversion to "setting our hair on fire." Don't do anything to fire up the Dems, lest they come boiling out of the woodworks. The 2012 Romney campaign was the apogee of such thinking - they literally hired several key Tea Party leaders of the massive 2010 wave that spawned a 70+ seat swing to GOP control.....and sent them around the country to tell all the TP groups to stay quiet. They did not want to do anything to anger Democrats. Flash forward a decade to the Trump era, and the evolution in turnout is nearly complete. It is Republicans who depend on the low-propensity voter (and need a Trump-type populist candidate to turn them out.) Bot old-school GOP-ers (and your thinking leans this way) see the Trump-schtick as exactly the kind of stuff that brings about the old concerns about firing up Dem turnout of lower-propensity voters. One problem - now it is the GOP which needs the theatrics to fire up its base of lower-propensity voters....

Most polls show Trump winning the independent vote comfortably. The problem is....the independent vote IS predominantly lower-propensity voters. Trump has to turn them out to win. And, at least when HE is on the ballot, he typically does. On election day, he typically does out-perform his polling.

Within that context, Dems are using mail-in voting to to offset their turnout disadvantage. Some of this is real - single professional women are lower-propensity votes unless an issue important to them (like abortion) is on the ballot, in which case the come boiling out of the woodwork. And, of course, some of Dem turnout is pure shenanigan - ballot harvesting and outright fraud.



FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:


Good news
lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?


Funny how any poll showing that Trump may be losing support is meaningless.
I certainly haven't said that. i note the full range.

There are general factors: variance between polling firms is largely a function of different assumptions about "who is going to vote." Polling firms have to FIRST make assumptions about who is going to vote, then poll that cohort. That's why "all adults" polls tend to be less accurate than "registered voters" polls, which tend to be less accurate than "likely voters." The "all adult" polls are not irrelevant, but they are also full of people who are not likely to vote.

Then there are factors unique to the cycle. This one (and the last few & next few) will be even harder to poll than normal, give the political realignments going on - the leftward move of the educated & higher income parts of the electorate (particularly whites) and related rightward move of the working classes of all races. The most obvious manifestation of this can be seen with low-propensity voters. My entire adult life, Republicans were a smaller cohort of higher-propensity voters, and Democrats were the low-propensity voters......Dems tended to win elections with ginormous turnout, while Republicans tended to win the lower turnout cycles. That is the genesis of moderate Republican aversion to "setting our hair on fire." Don't do anything to fire up the Dems, lest they come boiling out of the woodworks. The 2012 Romney campaign was the apogee of such thinking - they literally hired several key Tea Party leaders of the massive 2010 wave that spawned a 70+ seat swing to GOP control.....and sent them around the country to tell all the TP groups to stay quiet. They did not want to do anything to anger Democrats. Flash forward a decade to the Trump era, and the evolution in turnout is nearly complete. It is Republicans who depend on the low-propensity voter (and need a Trump-type populist candidate to turn them out.) Bot old-school GOP-ers (and your thinking leans this way) see the Trump-schtick as exactly the kind of stuff that brings about the old concerns about firing up Dem turnout of lower-propensity voters. One problem - now it is the GOP which needs the theatrics to fire up its base of lower-propensity voters....

Most polls show Trump winning the independent vote comfortably. The problem is....the independent vote IS predominantly lower-propensity voters. Trump has to turn them out to win. And, at least when HE is on the ballot, he typically does. On election day, he typically does out-perform his polling.

Within that context, Dems are using mail-in voting to to offset their turnout disadvantage. Some of this is real - single professional women are lower-propensity votes unless an issue important to them (like abortion) is on the ballot, in which case the come boiling out of the woodwork. And, of course, some of Dem turnout is pure shenanigan - ballot harvesting and outright fraud.




Whiterock, just want to say. I enjoy your posts and conversations. I appreciate you don't go personal and the times we have it has been in a heated discussion not ongoing. Keep it up. Too much attention goes to the idiots, I need to give props to those that do good.


As for Trump, I personally believe he is great to move the needle. Still think his best role would be as the new Rush and do what he likes - talk from the pulpit and do rallies.

But as we get closer to actually electing a President will the middle of the Nation actually go through with it? His base, will. Were the Primaries his floor or ceiling when it is for real?
historian
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That strategy worked well for Romney.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
historian
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"Chicago is now MAGA country!"


https://notthebee.com/article/black-woman-wearing-maga-hat-quotes-the-bible-and-rips-chicagos-mayor-for-requesting-additional-money-for-illegal-immigrants
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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