FLBear5630 said:Whiterock, just want to say. I enjoy your posts and conversations. I appreciate you don't go personal and the times we have it has been in a heated discussion not ongoing. Keep it up. Too much attention goes to the idiots, I need to give props to those that do good.whiterock said:I certainly haven't said that. i note the full range.FLBear5630 said:4th and Inches said:lol, you do realize national polls dont mean squat right?Waco1947 said:Good newsboognish_bear said:
Funny how any poll showing that Trump may be losing support is meaningless.
There are general factors: variance between polling firms is largely a function of different assumptions about "who is going to vote." Polling firms have to FIRST make assumptions about who is going to vote, then poll that cohort. That's why "all adults" polls tend to be less accurate than "registered voters" polls, which tend to be less accurate than "likely voters." The "all adult" polls are not irrelevant, but they are also full of people who are not likely to vote.
Then there are factors unique to the cycle. This one (and the last few & next few) will be even harder to poll than normal, give the political realignments going on - the leftward move of the educated & higher income parts of the electorate (particularly whites) and related rightward move of the working classes of all races. The most obvious manifestation of this can be seen with low-propensity voters. My entire adult life, Republicans were a smaller cohort of higher-propensity voters, and Democrats were the low-propensity voters......Dems tended to win elections with ginormous turnout, while Republicans tended to win the lower turnout cycles. That is the genesis of moderate Republican aversion to "setting our hair on fire." Don't do anything to fire up the Dems, lest they come boiling out of the woodworks. The 2012 Romney campaign was the apogee of such thinking - they literally hired several key Tea Party leaders of the massive 2010 wave that spawned a 70+ seat swing to GOP control.....and sent them around the country to tell all the TP groups to stay quiet. They did not want to do anything to anger Democrats. Flash forward a decade to the Trump era, and the evolution in turnout is nearly complete. It is Republicans who depend on the low-propensity voter (and need a Trump-type populist candidate to turn them out.) Bot old-school GOP-ers (and your thinking leans this way) see the Trump-schtick as exactly the kind of stuff that brings about the old concerns about firing up Dem turnout of lower-propensity voters. One problem - now it is the GOP which needs the theatrics to fire up its base of lower-propensity voters....
Most polls show Trump winning the independent vote comfortably. The problem is....the independent vote IS predominantly lower-propensity voters. Trump has to turn them out to win. And, at least when HE is on the ballot, he typically does. On election day, he typically does out-perform his polling.
Within that context, Dems are using mail-in voting to to offset their turnout disadvantage. Some of this is real - single professional women are lower-propensity votes unless an issue important to them (like abortion) is on the ballot, in which case the come boiling out of the woodwork. And, of course, some of Dem turnout is pure shenanigan - ballot harvesting and outright fraud.
As for Trump, I personally believe he is great to move the needle. Still think his best role would be as the new Rush and do what he likes - talk from the pulpit and do rallies.
But as we get closer to actually electing a President will the middle of the Nation actually go through with it? His base, will. Were the Primaries his floor or ceiling when it is for real?
Very good questions. It's all about "who will vote." He will need a big turnout of new voters, if this is any indicator….
📊 NBC News Poll: Presidential Election
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 21, 2024
Voted in 2020 & 2022: 🔵 Biden +9
Didn't vote in either: 🔴 Trump+22
—
"Very interested in election"
• April 2024 — 64% (an all-time low)
• July 2020 — 77%
• May 2016 — 69%
• April 2012 — 67%
• April 2008 — 74% https://t.co/xrD5fsUnLl pic.twitter.com/aSomgbhaaC
