FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
boognish_bear said:
a lot of catterwalling and handwringing.....but those movements are all within margin of error. (and that's before we get to the issue of media polling to make rather than report news.
The fundamentals of the race not only have not changed, they have deteriorated, as yesterday's stock market indicates.
Data is only an indicator, saying that trend is within the Margin of Error does not make the trend less valid.
Trump is in a good position, only if Trump STOPS with the unforced errors. He is his own worst enemy. This is a General Election, he has his base. His base is not going to win him the election, only getting him in striking distance. He needs those Independents and Moderates, since the Vance selection he seems to have forgotten that.
His team appears to have started making some adjustments, that is promising. Three things I have noticed...
1 - They are starting to roll out Vance's wife more than Vance, which is good. She is more articulate and has a story that resonates with the needed voters. She needs more time in the media.
2 - Supposedly, he is going to be airing more Ads documenting policy and the economy.
3 - They are interviewing Trump, not letting him just rail, the interview where he actually complements, AOC on having a "spark", "knowing who she is" and "being effective" actually played well it was on all the news stations this morning and they didn't know how to deal with it because he complemented her.
Those are the things that help him in the middle and left. He needs to stay away from angry Trump...
correct. a trend is till a trend. But if it's in the MOE, you have to watch the numbers over time to confirm that it's a trend and not chatter.
Making an odd off-message statement here & there is not nearly as big of a hurdle as the bad fundamentals facing the Democrats. So let the "here we go again" stuff about Trump roll off your back. He's not the problem. the Democrats are the problem.
You and I won't see much of a campaign, living in red states like we do. The money will be spent in swing states, mostly Great Lakes states. That said, I am seeing Kamala ads while my wife is watching the Olympics. That's a little bit of a grift by the PACs....spending money in states which will not be competitive. Some of that can be explained away as indirect support for Allred. But mostly it's a need to spend money before the election is over. There's an election every 2 years, but the campaigns rarely last much longer than 6 months. Consultants have to get 2 years of expenses & profits crammed into that 6 month period........
The amount of money each campaign has is ample given the small number of swing states involved.