2024

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historian
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You Need a Govt. ID to Attend a Kamala Rally, But Not to Vote https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2024/08/14/you-need-a-govt-id-to-attend-a-kamala-rally-but-not-to-vote-n3793127
4th and Inches
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sombear said:

boognish_bear said:

From what we've been seeing about Republicans leading the way in registering voters that could counterbalance a slight KH lead....if the polls are even accurate to begin with....


Right now, it's a bloodbath. Trump and RNC numbers still getting worse by the day.

The worst data points for Trump: His negatives are getting worse, despite basically being cemented for a year. And the last week's aggregate shows 48-50% "definitely will not vote for Trump." That is an all-time high.

It will take a major dynamic to change the race. Not sure what that is at this point, except maybe a hellish Dem convention where the pro-Hamas crowd makes '68 look like a high school prep rally.

Trump squandered the convention and everything since, and it has been a disaster.

One of the best in the business


Just not seeing the continued sinking

Seeing the polling being crazy skewed on the sample though.. saw a 40 and a 47 Dem sample this morning. Anything over 36 is off and 47 is alternate reality
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Jack Bauer
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boognish_bear said:

It may not all be kumbaya on the Dem side


historian
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BUDOS said:

Just how reliable a source is kyleanbecker?

How reliable are CNN, the networks, the NYT, or any other Leftist outfit, possibly including the pollsters?
sombear
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4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

boognish_bear said:

From what we've been seeing about Republicans leading the way in registering voters that could counterbalance a slight KH lead....if the polls are even accurate to begin with....


Right now, it's a bloodbath. Trump and RNC numbers still getting worse by the day.

The worst data points for Trump: His negatives are getting worse, despite basically being cemented for a year. And the last week's aggregate shows 48-50% "definitely will not vote for Trump." That is an all-time high.

It will take a major dynamic to change the race. Not sure what that is at this point, except maybe a hellish Dem convention where the pro-Hamas crowd makes '68 look like a high school prep rally.

Trump squandered the convention and everything since, and it has been a disaster.

One of the best in the business


Just not seeing the continued sinking

Seeing the polling being crazy skewed on the sample though.. saw a 40 and a 47 Dem sample this morning. Anything over 36 is off and 47 is alternate reality


I'm not familiar with them but the Trump campaign disagrees it's that close at this time. Again, that does not mean it can't change, and there are still some on the Trump team who are supremely confident, though fewer than two weeks ago

boognish_bear
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FLBear5630
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boognish_bear said:


Why does it have to be the biggest in the history of politics?
Mothra
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:


Why does it have to be the biggest in the history of politics?
To feed his massive, albeit, fragile ego.
Osodecentx
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:


Why does it have to be the biggest in the history of politics?
To scare off any Independent who might have reservations about putting a delusional narcissist back into the WH
boognish_bear
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We saw the crowd size obsession right off the bat with his inauguration...

"Before Spicer's briefing room tirade on Saturday, Trump had told an audience at CIA headquarters that he had given his inauguration address to a "massive field of people … packed", he estimated, with between 1 million and 1.5 million people.

To his eye, Trump said, the crowd stretched "the 20-block area, all the way back to the Washington Monument" but a television network he didn't name had broadcast a shot of "an empty field" and put the crowd at 250,000.
He went on to say that God had stopped rain from falling during his speech, before adding that he had "caught" the news network in a lie: "We caught them in a beauty.

"And I think they're going to pay a big price."

But the evidence certainly seems to challenge Trump's assertion that he had drawn a crowd of as many as 1.5 million people."


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/22/trump-inauguration-crowd-sean-spicers-claims-versus-the-evidence
boognish_bear
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4th and Inches
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sombear said:

4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

boognish_bear said:

From what we've been seeing about Republicans leading the way in registering voters that could counterbalance a slight KH lead....if the polls are even accurate to begin with....


Right now, it's a bloodbath. Trump and RNC numbers still getting worse by the day.

The worst data points for Trump: His negatives are getting worse, despite basically being cemented for a year. And the last week's aggregate shows 48-50% "definitely will not vote for Trump." That is an all-time high.

It will take a major dynamic to change the race. Not sure what that is at this point, except maybe a hellish Dem convention where the pro-Hamas crowd makes '68 look like a high school prep rally.

Trump squandered the convention and everything since, and it has been a disaster.

One of the best in the business


Just not seeing the continued sinking

Seeing the polling being crazy skewed on the sample though.. saw a 40 and a 47 Dem sample this morning. Anything over 36 is off and 47 is alternate reality


I'm not familiar with them but the Trump campaign disagrees it's that close at this time. Again, that does not mean it can't change, and there are still some on the Trump team who are supremely confident, though fewer than two weeks ago




Understood

Check out what Economist/YouGov did

YouGov's last poll was a D+6 and produced a Harris +2. A week later, they had to overrepresent to D+10 to maintain a Harris +2.



I understand caution and worry but this is data manipultion to get a result, not truth

Plenty of time for the polls to tighten when they have to start showing the real data closer to final poll.

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boognish_bear
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totally unbiased....

4th and Inches
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Aliceinbubbleland said:

4th and Inches said:



CNN would fact check everything Trump says as false

I bet if Trump said it was raining, they would fact check it as false and call it drizzle or mist instead.

So he doesnt know the difference between impressions and watching live.. most dont know the difference
Yes everyone knows CNN has a slant but he makes it so easy for them. I personally am happy with any network that exposes his lies and ridiculous campaign to lose the election. When Trump makes a claim and CNN broadcasts the real truth why is that so hard to accept. The man constantly lies.
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Oldbear83
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I will happy to explain the numbers to anyone interested, but for now it's important to understand that since 1944 only one incumbent party candidate has won re-election with more than 1.8% minor-party share (Clinton in 1996).

The minor-vote share has been tracking between 5 and 9 percent ever since Harris claimed the nomination, and right now it's at 5.5%. That's bad news for Harris, but most people don't understand the numbers at work here.

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
historian
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ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

Source? I ask because other sites have questioned the image from Harris, not just Trump.
You'll complain if I don't do the research for you, but don't ask again for dumb **** like this.

Here's the link to the live streamed event.

https://www.youtube.com/live/AvVbLW6Xfbc?si=TncELI5OMRbktDmr

Go to about 28 mins if you need the photo angle segment
I cannot understand why Trump's post would bother anyone not on Team Kamala - calling into doubt the accomplishments of one's opponents is hardly bad politics, even if all it does is stiffen the spine of one's supporters.

Just look at FL's post above. Trump is hardly "floundering." But FL is rattled by the Harris campaign's equally outlandish narrative that it is surging a grassroots wave of support into a wide lead.
He literally said it was a "fake" rally and no one was there. It's an unforced error on something completely irrelevant other than to his ego.

His comments have enthused his supporters, who are out posting on social media about fake rallies. That muddies the waters for a lot of voters. It causes them to shrug off the whole issue as just more nonsense. That's a win.

Trump didn't say Nazis at Charlottesville were fine people, but a LOT of people believe it.

False stuff can get you a LOT of votes. You are smarter than this……

You're smarter than this as well. He and his supporters are looking like idiots circulating this, which compounds his already high unlike-ability, and just when he was moving it in the other direction. This crap only rallies his die hards, and exacerbates the low bar of truth he feeds to and encourages in his supporters.
it's politics, buddy. and as it is in war, the first casualty is the truth. If you aren't saying what you need to say to win, you are going to lose.

Harris is out there campaigning on Trump's platform, as if the prior 4 years never happened. And you get upset at Trump trying to discredit the veracity of her support? For getting millions of people out there to push a narrative that the Harris campaign is a lie?

It is amazing how obtuse the smart people can be when they confuse virtue with politics.


The majority of Americans vote on emotion and not policy. Literally how they feel about a candidate or maybe a particular issue. Rally crowd size doesn't move the political needle, but oblivious lying and the unhinged appearance of something like this does. To use the word the Democrats have glommed onto, it looks weird.

How about pointing out the weird policies of the opponents instead of stupid distractions? How about attacking the opponents and quit truth socialing or tweeting about your own party people? I'm not looking for virtue. I'm looking for strategy and sanity, and it's been missing for the past several weeks from the Trump campaign.

You're not going to find truth or sanity from Harris or Walz!
historian
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FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:

Redbrickbear said:

boognish_bear said:

Redbrickbear said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

If Trump was not an idiot, he should act like an adult and talk about issues. The problem is that Brown will just bet quiet, and every thing Trump argues will be coached as "Republicans pounce."



Let's be honest…Trump talks plenty about the issues

Inflation, the economy, mass immigration…

But that does not seem to get through to you since the media does not want to focus on those issues (since the all make the Biden-Harris administration look bad)

Go pull up the text of one of his full stump speeches and you will see that.

My guess is that you just focus on the clips the media shows you (30-50 second clips) of hour to two our hour speeches


He can't control that....but he has full control of his Truth Social and Twitter. He can shape the focus on issues completely on there if he can learn to resist the rage tweeting.


Buddy he just did a long one on one interview with Elon Musk that was watched by 60-80 million people.

And he talked plenty about the issues.

At some point you have to realize your perception is not reality…but it's a understandable perception if viewed through a certain media lens

He is engaging on the issues and before a lot of viewers

He throws out insults at his political opponents but it's not what he does the majority of the day or what he talks about the majority of the time.


Where is that 60 to 80 million figure coming from? Trump or Elon?

The TV interview with the biggest viewership of all time was Michael Jackson on Oprah in 1993 that drew 63 million viewers.




Fact Check put the number at closer to a million watched. He gets caught up in this number size pissing contest crap. He has an opportunity to talk issues and he waste it with dick size crap. A million on X, Reuters reported 1.3M, is a big number, which gets lost in his exaggerations.


https://www.reuters.com/world/us/elon-musk-interview-trump-x-social-media-network-2024-08-12/



Well, we all know Musk doesn't fudge numbers and Trump is very precise in his relating of data...

It does not matter, I don't get Trump's infatuation with inflating everything. All it does is get him in trouble and divert the conversation to irrelevant minutia from real points he makes. It is counterproductive.
one, look at time stamps. Two, the two tweets are not talking about the same thing.

Musk is saying that people watched and that lead to interactions which totaled 1billion impressions about the conversation.

Becker said initial impressions just on the conversation was 63million.

Its whatever but it shows people were listening and talkng aboiut it
Trump said there were 60 to 70 million listening, it was actually 1.3 million at its peak. It does not matter. 1.3 million is a lot, the focus on this detracts from the race. He does this constantly. He will be nit-picked constantly, yet he keeps throwing stuff around with no supporting data. He turns positives to negatives. He needs to be doing it better as the wind is not at his back until November now.


Fact check: Trump made at least 20 false claims in his conversation with Elon Musk | CNN Politics

How many false claims did the CNN "fact checker" make? Was there anything true in the report? With CNN those are a fair questions.
4th and Inches
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Oldbear83 said:

I will happy to explain the numbers to anyone interested, but for now it's important to understand that since 1944 only one incumbent party candidate has won re-election with more than 1.8% minor-party share (Clinton in 1996).

The minor-vote share has been tracking between 5 and 9 percent ever since Harris claimed the nomination, and right now it's at 5.5%. That's bad news for Harris, but most people don't understand the numbers at work here.


explain this one.. make it make sense

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historian
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4th and Inches said:

Aliceinbubbleland said:

4th and Inches said:



CNN would fact check everything Trump says as false

I bet if Trump said it was raining, they would fact check it as false and call it drizzle or mist instead.

So he doesnt know the difference between impressions and watching live.. most dont know the difference
Yes everyone knows CNN has a slant but he makes it so easy for them. I personally am happy with any network that exposes his lies and ridiculous campaign to lose the election. When Trump makes a claim and CNN broadcasts the real truth why is that so hard to accept. The man constantly lies.


81% of Democrats said ABC is credible.
80% of Democrats said NBC is credible.
79% of Democrats said CBS is credible.
74% of Democrats said CNN is credible.
72% of Democrats said The New York Times is credible.
67% of Democrats said MSNBC is credible.


Dems struggle to find them credible.. why do you think they broadcast the "real truth"?



What percentage of democrats have trouble to finding "woman"? It's probably comparable to the percentage who find those leftist news sources to be reliable.
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:


Why does it have to be the biggest in the history of politics?

Ok Eeyore….if you're running for POTUS and drawing massive crowds and NOT claiming they're the greatest ever, you are not doing it right.
historian
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boognish_bear said:



Good stuff!
whiterock
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historian
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4th and Inches said:

Aliceinbubbleland said:

4th and Inches said:



CNN would fact check everything Trump says as false

I bet if Trump said it was raining, they would fact check it as false and call it drizzle or mist instead.

So he doesnt know the difference between impressions and watching live.. most dont know the difference
Yes everyone knows CNN has a slant but he makes it so easy for them. I personally am happy with any network that exposes his lies and ridiculous campaign to lose the election. When Trump makes a claim and CNN broadcasts the real truth why is that so hard to accept. The man constantly lies.


It is reassuring when somebody sees the light.
whiterock
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4th and Inches said:

Oldbear83 said:

I will happy to explain the numbers to anyone interested, but for now it's important to understand that since 1944 only one incumbent party candidate has won re-election with more than 1.8% minor-party share (Clinton in 1996).

The minor-vote share has been tracking between 5 and 9 percent ever since Harris claimed the nomination, and right now it's at 5.5%. That's bad news for Harris, but most people don't understand the numbers at work here.


explain this one.. make it make sense



One factor: RFKJR. His support is waning. When that happens, it's mostly anti-Biden Dems going home. So it does explain a 3-5 pt increase in Harris support versus where Biden was. But no way does it turn the electorate into 40% Democrat.

Polls are being cooked to dispirit GOP. From the commentary here, it's clearly working.
historian
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Aliceinbubbleland said:



This is hilarious!
4th and Inches
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whiterock said:

4th and Inches said:

Oldbear83 said:

I will happy to explain the numbers to anyone interested, but for now it's important to understand that since 1944 only one incumbent party candidate has won re-election with more than 1.8% minor-party share (Clinton in 1996).

The minor-vote share has been tracking between 5 and 9 percent ever since Harris claimed the nomination, and right now it's at 5.5%. That's bad news for Harris, but most people don't understand the numbers at work here.


explain this one.. make it make sense



One factor: RFKJR. His support is waning. When that happens, it's mostly anti-Biden Dems going home. So it does explain a 3-5 pt increase in Harris support versus where Biden was. But no way does it turn the electorate into 40% Democrat.

Polls are being cooked to dispirit GOP. From the commentary here, it's clearly working.
i think it is being done to rattle Trump and it IS working
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Mothra
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

boognish_bear said:


Why does it have to be the biggest in the history of politics?

Ok Eeyore….if you're running for POTUS and drawing massive crowds and NOT claiming they're the greatest ever, you are not doing it right.
Meh to that. He can claim whatever he wants. The problem with these types of silly bombastic claims is it's all b.s. and everyone knows it.

I suspect most of the people he needs to court are turned off by his dick measuring contest.
boognish_bear
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Waco1947
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Mothra said:

Waco1947 said:

Mothra said:

Waco1947 said:

Not pro hamas but pro Palestinian
No, pro-Hamas is more accurate. That's your stupid fantasy. Nowhere among progressives are there pro-hamas. The is your stupid uninformed opinion

Must have hit a nerve. An anti-Christian conservative-hating dolt such as yourself shouldn't be calling anyone stupid.

Your party is pro-Hamas. Hell, even the Squad voted against a resolution condemning Hamas.

Deal with it, "preacher." I heard that HEB "Deal with it'. It sounds entitled and cliched
Waco1947 ,la
Oldbear83
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The explanation, in short, is that you are looking at one poll. Specifically, the most recent Economist/YouGov poll. One interesting thing about that poll, is that RCP does not include the YouGov polls in their aggregation.

270towin does list the various incarnations of YouGov polls; partnered with The Economist, CBS, The Times, and Yahoo. Sometimes the poll uses Registered Voters, and other times it asks 'Likely Voters', but the results are always less favorable to Trump than other concurrent polls.

Part of the fun comes from the way polls choose to run their businesses. People don't often think, for example, about the fact that university polls, like Marist or Quinnipiac, depend on students to perform the polling, including phrasing of questions and sometimes the results reflect little nuances. Other polls are known to have a left bias, such as PPP, or lean to the Right such as Rasmussen Reports. The days when a poll was obsessed with countering bias died when Gallup stopped doing Presidential Election polls.




That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Mothra
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Waco1947 said:

Mothra said:

Waco1947 said:

Mothra said:

Waco1947 said:

Not pro hamas but pro Palestinian
No, pro-Hamas is more accurate. That's your stupid fantasy. Nowhere among progressives are there pro-hamas. The is your stupid uninformed opinion

Must have hit a nerve. An anti-Christian conservative-hating dolt such as yourself shouldn't be calling anyone stupid.

Your party is pro-Hamas. Hell, even the Squad voted against a resolution condemning Hamas.

Deal with it, "preacher." I heard that HEB "Deal with it'. It sounds entitled and cliched

Entitled and cliched would describe the majority of your posts on this board.
Waco1947
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yep cool too
Waco1947 ,la
4th and Inches
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Adopt-a-Bear 2024

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