2024

433,321 Views | 8365 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by historian
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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ATL Bear
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sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.
Redbrickbear
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Harrison Bergeron
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Redbrickbear said:


If you ever peruse left-wing sites, they think Fox News is always wrong, 100% of the time, and that CNN is "right wing." People are nuts.
historian
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boognish_bear said:




Jon Stewart is funny sometimes. Unfortunately, this is funny because it is based on truths and some sad truths.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
historian
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Interesting idea.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
Harrison Bergeron
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historian said:

boognish_bear said:




Jon Stewart is funny sometimes. Unfortunately, this is funny because it is based on truths and some sad truths.
Okay. That IS shocking.
FLBear5630
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ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Oldbear83
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FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Some will wait until the election is done to let it be known if they are available.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
FLBear5630
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Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Some will wait until the election is done to let it be known if they are available.


I agree with McMasters Trump does not need yes men. He needs adults to keep him on track.
drahthaar
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FLBear5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Some will wait until the election is done to let it be known if they are available.


I agree with McMasters Trump does not need yes men. He needs adults to keep him on track.


But, then, so did Brandon and so does Harris or anyone in that role.
boognish_bear
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Mothra
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FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Honestly, if that's the worst of it, it's not that bad. I actually expected something much worse.
FLBear5630
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Mothra said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Honestly, if that's the worst of it, it's not that bad. I actually expected something much worse.
No, that is why I posted it, for example Bolton's is ridiculous and personal, McMasters is a pro. He gave a balanced assessment.

The piece I fear is that Trump will not challenge himself this time with people like McMasters in his Cabinet. It will be "Yes, people". IMO, of all Presidents, Trump does not need "Yes, people". He needs the truth. Someone like GHW Bush I can see needing "Yes, people" to move him off the data into action and reenforce confidence in decision making.

Trump needs people to keep him on point. I think Trump is good at reading and using data and makes good decisions, he is just too impatient and impulsive. He needs McMasters types. Someone like Halley worked well together, whether they liked it or not! I think Gabbard and even RFK would be great for Trump and challenge him. WE DO NOT NEED THE BANNON AND FLYNN'S!
sombear
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Mothra said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Honestly, if that's the worst of it, it's not that bad. I actually expected something much worse.
I agree with you. It was mostly, "he made the right decisions but said a lot of stupid things and asked stupid questions."
FLBear5630
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sombear said:

Mothra said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Honestly, if that's the worst of it, it's not that bad. I actually expected something much worse.
I agree with you. It was mostly, "he made the right decisions but said a lot of stupid things and asked stupid questions."
You didn't find the need and desire to be stroked, susceptible to flattery and trust of dictator part as significant? That he thought he could be friends with Putin? The "he made good decisions" but would not follow through? I found those parts very troubling. I also found positives, which is why I liked the review it is balanced. Nothing is EVER all one way or the other.

I guess we see what we want to see.
4th and Inches
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boognish_bear said:


hes not wrong..
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
4th and Inches
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FLBear5630 said:

Mothra said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Honestly, if that's the worst of it, it's not that bad. I actually expected something much worse.
No, that is why I posted it, for example Bolton's is ridiculous and personal, McMasters is a pro. He gave a balanced assessment.

The piece I fear is that Trump will not challenge himself this time with people like McMasters in his Cabinet. It will be "Yes, people". IMO, of all Presidents, Trump does not need "Yes, people". He needs the truth. Someone like GHW Bush I can see needing "Yes, people" to move him off the data into action and reenforce confidence in decision making.

Trump needs people to keep him on point. I think Trump is good at reading and using data and makes good decisions, he is just too impatient and impulsive. He needs McMasters types. Someone like Halley worked well together, whether they liked it or not! I think Gabbard and even RFK would be great for Trump and challenge him. WE DO NOT NEED THE BANNON AND FLYNN'S!
i think you are gonna get people like Gabbard and RFK this time. He knows this is the last chance just like RFK knows it is the last chance for him to change things for better health of the nation.
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
sombear
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FLBear5630 said:

sombear said:

Mothra said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Honestly, if that's the worst of it, it's not that bad. I actually expected something much worse.
I agree with you. It was mostly, "he made the right decisions but said a lot of stupid things and asked stupid questions."
You didn't find the need and desire to be stroked, susceptible to flattery and trust of dictator part as significant? That he thought he could be friends with Putin? The "he made good decisions" but would not follow through? I found those parts very troubling. I also found positives, which is why I liked the review it is balanced. Nothing is EVER all one way or the other.

I guess we see what we want to see.
W, Hillary, and Obama thought they could be friends with Putin also.

And, my gosh, if we didn't already know Trump need to be worshipped . . . .
Jack Bauer
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Mothra
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sombear said:

Mothra said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Honestly, if that's the worst of it, it's not that bad. I actually expected something much worse.
I agree with you. It was mostly, "he made the right decisions but said a lot of stupid things and asked stupid questions."
Pretty much. It certainly wasn't the "blistering account" that CNN described in its headline.

But that's CNN for you.
KaiBear
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Jack Bauer said:




The differences between Trump and Harris could not be more stark.

Yet, millions will vote for propaganda rather than policies.

' We have met the enemy; and he is us.'

Pogo
FLBear5630
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sombear said:

FLBear5630 said:

sombear said:

Mothra said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Honestly, if that's the worst of it, it's not that bad. I actually expected something much worse.
I agree with you. It was mostly, "he made the right decisions but said a lot of stupid things and asked stupid questions."
You didn't find the need and desire to be stroked, susceptible to flattery and trust of dictator part as significant? That he thought he could be friends with Putin? The "he made good decisions" but would not follow through? I found those parts very troubling. I also found positives, which is why I liked the review it is balanced. Nothing is EVER all one way or the other.

I guess we see what we want to see.
W, Hillary, and Obama thought they could be friends with Putin also.

And, my gosh, if we didn't already know Trump need to be worshipped . . . .
We have not had a real election, with real candidates in decades. These are still **** choices.
Jack Bauer
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When the Moms go out for a wine night...things get crazy.
Perfect with the lip dubbing out of sync and awkward movements.


Jack Bauer
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boognish_bear
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Realitybites
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boognish_bear said:


Terrible messaging.

"The Supreme Court made it clear in their correct decision to overturn Roe vs Wade that abortion is a matter for regulation by the states. Authoritarian democrats are desperate to overturn that decision by having the Federal Government enforce California's abortion laws on the whole country. As president, I will oppose any effort by congress to bring it back into the purview of the Federal Government. While the pro-life movement in America has my sympathy and support, they need to focus their efforts on our 50 states."

Come on people, this is not hard.
TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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FLBear5630 said:

sombear said:

FLBear5630 said:

sombear said:

Mothra said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Honestly, if that's the worst of it, it's not that bad. I actually expected something much worse.
I agree with you. It was mostly, "he made the right decisions but said a lot of stupid things and asked stupid questions."
You didn't find the need and desire to be stroked, susceptible to flattery and trust of dictator part as significant? That he thought he could be friends with Putin? The "he made good decisions" but would not follow through? I found those parts very troubling. I also found positives, which is why I liked the review it is balanced. Nothing is EVER all one way or the other.

I guess we see what we want to see.
W, Hillary, and Obama thought they could be friends with Putin also.

And, my gosh, if we didn't already know Trump need to be worshipped . . . .
We have not had a real election, with real candidates in decades. These are still **** choices.


The real problem is that the establishment owns our elections. The candidates are chosen by the very swamp that we want to get rid of. No way to do otherwise unless there is a real outsider candidate that has both fame, charisma, and a bankroll.

It takes a guy like Trump with charisma, fortitude, ego, and bankroll to compete against the swamp's candidates. We don't like a lot about Trump, but their isn't any other single person that could have beat Hillary. It took 6 years of lies and discredit to make him unelectable to the masses. And even then we're still not so confident that the election was "honest".
Every other candidate would have folded and given in. The amount of whining people do about Trump and his personality is a bit odd, I mean his fighter attitude and personality is the only reason conservatives have the Supreme Court and federal judges that we do.

Sure I wish he'd tone it down on the mean tweets from a strategy perspective, but truth be told, his tweets are usually pretty good and on point. So some "conservatives" are upset that he's unloading on progressives, but again, no one else has the balls to do it. Someone needs to. Maybe you should choose to be less offended by him and his tweets, since he is the only one actually fighting the progressive media and politicians for you. We've all seen the repubs just do the bare minimums for decades, so why have faith in any one of them. Trump stays in and fights, time for the rest of the repubs to join him.

So you whiners keep whining, you actually whine more about Trump than you do about progressives. Y'all keep doing you, as for me, I'll take the bad with the good, and vote against socialism and for Trump every time.
Malbec
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FLBear5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Some will wait until the election is done to let it be known if they are available.


I agree with McMasters Trump does not need yes men. He needs adults to keep him on track.
It's McMaster. No "s" on the end.
Redbrickbear
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TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

FLBear5630 said:

sombear said:

FLBear5630 said:

sombear said:

Mothra said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Honestly, if that's the worst of it, it's not that bad. I actually expected something much worse.
I agree with you. It was mostly, "he made the right decisions but said a lot of stupid things and asked stupid questions."
You didn't find the need and desire to be stroked, susceptible to flattery and trust of dictator part as significant? That he thought he could be friends with Putin? The "he made good decisions" but would not follow through? I found those parts very troubling. I also found positives, which is why I liked the review it is balanced. Nothing is EVER all one way or the other.

I guess we see what we want to see.
W, Hillary, and Obama thought they could be friends with Putin also.

And, my gosh, if we didn't already know Trump need to be worshipped . . . .
We have not had a real election, with real candidates in decades. These are still **** choices.


The real problem is that the establishment owns our elections. The candidates are chosen by the very swamp that we want to get rid of. No way to do otherwise unless there is a real outsider candidate that has both fame, charisma, and a bankroll.




"Governments, if they endure, always tend increasingly toward aristocratic forms. No government in history has been known to evade this pattern. And as the aristocracy develops, government tends more and more to act exclusively in the interests of the ruling class - whether that class be hereditary royalty, oligarchs of financial empires, or entrenched bureaucracy."
Frank Herbert
boognish_bear
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4th and Inches
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Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
Aliceinbubbleland
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Malbec said:

FLBear5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

ATL Bear said:

sombear said:

whiterock said:

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.
This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.


Yes, the internal polling has them greatly concerned. I know Georgia went from heavy lean to contested.


This is a **** election. When I read stuff like the attached article from guys like Gen McMasters it really puts me in a quandary. McMasters is an honorable, competent man. His account is balanced, unlike Bolton, which adds to credibility. No good choices. I can only hope McMasters or someone like him agrees to serve again. We need competent men at the NSA and Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/mcmaster-trump-book-account/index.html
Some will wait until the election is done to let it be known if they are available.


I agree with McMasters Trump does not need yes men. He needs adults to keep him on track.
It's McMaster. No "s" on the end.


He needs to quit flipping on his politics. Abortion, GA Gov and crypto come to mind. But he will say anything to win which should bother his followers
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