Oldbear83 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

That speech by RFK was a scathing indictment of the Democratic Party

He would have won the primary and probably the election without their interference

---

Doubt RFK would have won the primary against an incumbent.

Even with the best name in national politics.

But he was totally correct in his assessment of the Democrat Party primary system.

It was a total sham.

---

I don't think RFK would have won the Democrats' nomination, but in a fair race he would ironically have vetted their nominee and the Democrats would likely have produced a more credible nominee then Harris.

---

Dem power brokers made promises to Harris in 2020 and did what was necessary to honor those promises in 2024.

KaiBear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

That speech by RFK was a scathing indictment of the Democratic Party

He would have won the primary and probably the election without their interference

---

Doubt RFK would have won the primary against an incumbent.

Even with the best name in national politics.

But he was totally correct in his assessment of the Democrat Party primary system.

It was a total sham.

---

I don't think RFK would have won the Democrats' nomination, but in a fair race he would ironically have vetted their nominee and the Democrats would likely have produced a more credible nominee then Harris.

---

Dem power brokers made promises to Harris in 2020 and did what was necessary to honor those promises in 2024.

---

Democrats have not a straight Primary since 2008, don't know if they could do it now if they wanted.

I was half right in my prediction earlier this year that Biden would run and if he won immediately resign promoting Harris to President.

I didn't see him quitting. Either way Harris was going to be his choice.

Aliceinbubbleland said:

---

I was half right in my prediction earlier this year that Biden would run and if he won immediately resign promoting Harris to President.

I didn't see him quitting. Either way Harris was going to be his choice.

---

I have always believed Biden would be forced to resign from the presidency BEFORE his term was up in order to provide Harris the advantages of running as the incumbent .

Still believe it will happen.

KaiBear said:

---

Aliceinbubbleland said:

---

I was half right in my prediction earlier this year that Biden would run and if he won immediately resign promoting Harris to President.

I didn't see him quitting. Either way Harris was going to be his choice.

---

I have always believed Biden would be forced to resign from the presidency BEFORE his term was up in order to provide Harris the advantages of running as the incumbent .

Still believe it will happen.

---

Given Harris worked so hard this week to portray Trump as the incumbent, she may not want that word associated with her right before the election.

That, and many independents believed Harris did not win the Democrats' nomination, so they may not buy at all the idea that Harris is Presidential just because she shoves Joe out the door completely.

RCP has it 287-251 Trump

4th and Inches said:

---

That speech by RFK was a scathing indictment of the Democratic Party

He would have won the primary and probably the election without their interference

---

I doubt it. The democrats are authoritarians. Not much chance they would subscribe to the sorts of freedoms RFK would advocate for.

sombear said:

---

historian said:

---

Harris is not looking so rosy after all:

https://twitchy.com/brettt/2024/08/21/newsweek-new-poll-shows-harris-leading-zero-battleground-states-n2399942

---

Last couple days of polling have been good for Harris, and her speech polled well.

Likely will be a rough few days for Trump, then the campaign really kicks in.

Trump finally promising his staff and family to stay on message. That's the key to this election.

---

Substantively, the speech sucked. But the delivery was a very very good. She will get a bounce.

whiterock said:

---

sombear said:

---

historian said:

---

Harris is not looking so rosy after all:

https://twitchy.com/brettt/2024/08/21/newsweek-new-poll-shows-harris-leading-zero-battleground-states-n2399942

---

Last couple days of polling have been good for Harris, and her speech polled well.

Likely will be a rough few days for Trump, then the campaign really kicks in.

Trump finally promising his staff and family to stay on message. That's the key to this election.

---

Substantively, the speech sucked. But the delivery was a very very good. She will get a bounce.

---

True. But we all knew that. Bounce when announced and Convention bounce. Now the game begins.

Can Trump get her on the issues?

The quizzical one to me is Vance vs Walz. On paper Vance is a slam-dunk winner. In real life Walz is beating him. Walz is riding that Wilford Brimley mid-west Grandfather schtick over anything they throw at him. Have they reached the point to just compartmentalize and make a non-issue rather than attack?

Man who impregnated his nanny during a separation with his first wife, Nanny got an abortion.

White liberal woman swoon!!!

Opinion by Catherine Rampell: Doug Emhoff has been called many things in recent years: Second Gentleman. “Goofy dad.” “Crappy Jew.” But perhaps his most appropriate title: Progressive Sex Symbol. https://t.co/sghTweieOS

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 23, 2024

Actual established national pollsters who haven't polled more than once since 7/23: Times/Siena, Harvard/Harris, Atlas Intel, WSJ/Fabrizio/GBAO, Clarity, FAU lol, Big Data, Leger lmao, McLaughlin, Civiqs, Marquette, TIPP, CNBC/Hart, Marist, SurveyUSA, Cygnal, Pew, JL Partners,…

— Chris (@chriswithans) August 24, 2024

Actual established national pollsters who haven't polled more than once since 7/23: Times/Siena, Harvard/Harris, Atlas Intel, WSJ/Fabrizio/GBAO, Clarity, FAU lol, Big Data, Leger lmao, McLaughlin, Civiqs, Marquette, TIPP, CNBC/Hart, Marist, SurveyUSA, Cygnal, Pew, JL Partners, CBS/YouGov, Fox/Beacon, Emerson. And only Emerson post-August 12 (also was a strict "very likely" poll). DFP....I guess I should mention them, and they only polled once too.

So pretty much almost all the major national pollsters, and some minor ones, have only polled the national race once post-7/21.

And thus, we're really not getting a clear picture of any post-initial-dropout shifts or DNC shifts. RMG, Rasmussen, Morning Consult, Redfield actually do capture it decently....basically Harris went down in the two weeks before the DNC and then edged back up during the DNC. And those polls average out to about Harris +1.0 but Redfield is 3-way.

Trump vs. Harris, by religion:

Evangelical - Trump +33
Protestant - Trump +9
Catholic - Trump +11
Jewish - Trump +4
Muslim - Trump +17 (small sample)
👇👇👇
Atheist - Harris +67
Agnostic/other - Harris +25

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) August 23, 2024

whiterock said:

---

Trump vs. Harris, by religion:

Evangelical - Trump +33
Protestant - Trump +9
Catholic - Trump +11
Jewish - Trump +4
Muslim - Trump +17 (small sample)
👇👇👇
Atheist - Harris +67
Agnostic/other - Harris +25

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) August 23, 2024

---

I'm guessing Satanist and Wiccan are grouped into "Other".

whitetrash said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Trump vs. Harris, by religion:

Evangelical - Trump +33
Protestant - Trump +9
Catholic - Trump +11
Jewish - Trump +4
Muslim - Trump +17 (small sample)
👇👇👇
Atheist - Harris +67
Agnostic/other - Harris +25

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) August 23, 2024

---

I'm guessing Satanist and Wiccan are grouped into "Other".

---

LGBTQ religion to indoctrinate your kids

Harris +1000000

It's back-to-school month!

The groomers and pr*dat*rs will be out in full force pushing radical gender ideology in the classroom.

If you see something that needs to be exposed, know that our DMs are always open. We are here to give YOU a voice.

Sunlight is the best… pic.twitter.com/r1iGmA3lB0

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) August 20, 2024

FLBear5630 said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Man who impregnated his nanny during a separation with his first wife, Nanny got an abortion.

White liberal woman swoon!!!

Opinion by Catherine Rampell: Doug Emhoff has been called many things in recent years: Second Gentleman. “Goofy dad.” “Crappy Jew.” But perhaps his most appropriate title: Progressive Sex Symbol. https://t.co/sghTweieOS

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 23, 2024

---

That guy is a sex symbol? ...

---

Comic relief moment

This clip of Trump made me choke 🤣 pic.twitter.com/quIRUi9344

— Classic Tweets (@Classic__Tweets) August 24, 2024

boognish_bear said:

---

Your body fat percentage should be your tax rate. pic.twitter.com/jl85YAIZFW

— BowTiedLoon | Degen Island Physician (@BowTiedLoon) August 24, 2024

---

i am intrigued by your ideas, i wish to subscribe to your news letter

The 538 model was very obviously broken before and it's good they fixed it but man you gotta admit that it was broken and that you radically changed it.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 25, 2024

The RFK-less version of the model is ready!

But it barely made any difference.

Here's an explanation of the simple fix we made, and why it hasn’t yet moved the topline numbers.https://t.co/DSF4nHlfSB

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 24, 2024

Hey Nate. show me you play with math, but don't really understand it.

Don't forget, Nate Silver does not do any polling, he aggregates selected polls and weights them according to his preference.

Silver's projections look good when Democrats win, look bad when Republicans win. But he's always been prone to over-weighting the Democrat and underweighting the Republican, when addressing Presidential elections.

Nate Silver left 538 last year.

Here is his new venture.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-trump-electoral-college

Grinnin bear said:

---

Nate Silver left 538 last year.

Here is his new venture.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-trump-electoral-college

---

Silver still gets $$$ from both ABC and FiveThirtyEight. It's like he's selling polling franchises now.

Bottom line is Silver is 110 IQ smart but wants everyone to think he's 160 IQ smart.

He also never admits his ****-ups.

Grinnin bear said:

---

Nate Silver left 538 last year.

Here is his new venture.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-trump-electoral-college

---

still nate doing nate things..

Over emphasizes Dems by about 3-4

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.

whiterock said:

---

Takes at least 3 days of data to get a good poll to measure a specific event, like a convention, or a shooting of a candidate, or a major endorsement.

So the flaw one could easily theorize to find in his conclusion above would be that the polls he's aggregating contain several days of convention bounce, but only ONE day of RFKJR endorsement bounce. That's on top of the fact that very few pollsters have done more than one poll in the last couple of weeks.

If you want to know how the convention vs RFKjr endorsement played out, wait for polls published on Wednesday. That gives Sat/Sun/Mon to collect data, Tues to analyze and review, Wed to publish.

---

This is correct.

One word of caution for Trump voters though. There is a reason Trump's pollsters distributed press releases to every media outlet in the country yesterday saying to expect a solid Harris lead for a while. Their mid-convention and post-Harris speech polling was abysmal. Of course, this was expected to a certain extent, but they were a bit taken aback.

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/04/08/confronting-2016-and-2020-polling-limitations/

"Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate's support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016."

Why does Nate now say it makes no difference if RFK drops out when he said before he was takin Trump voters?

“President Trump is going to make a series of announcements about other Democrats who are joining his campaign.”

JUST IN: RFK Jr. announces that more Democrats will be teaming up with Donald Trump to Make America Great Again 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/v3yJhRrbj9

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) August 25, 2024

Who is negotiating for us in the Middle East? Bombs are dropping all over the place! Sleepy Joe is sleeping on a Beach in California, viciously Exiled by the Democrats, and Comrade Kamala is doing a campaign bus tour with Tampon Tim, her really bad V.P. Pick. Let’s not have World…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 25, 2024