Jacques Strap said:

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My background is in law enforcement. Yes, I own a glock.pic.twitter.com/gTbjrEMCPA

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 8, 2024

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Who on earth would be dumb enough to believe any of that BS?
She doesn't own a gun. She doesn't shoot at a range. She had never been in law enforcement.

She is just full of bull*****

KaiBear said:

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I put as much faith in these ridiculously fluctuating polls as the breathlessly dramatic hurricane warmings that have been the media rage over the last 5-8 years.

Harris is the odds on favorite to be our next commander in chief.

If you liked her speech in Europe with 200,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border ……gonna love her next blunder involving China.

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they aren't ridiculously fluctuating. the individual firms themselves have been pretty stable. They reflected a bounce for Harris after she was appointed - partly genuine as some of the anti-Biden vote came home from 3rd party candidates, and partly as a function of assumptions about increased enthusiasm (higher turnout). The debate also bolstered her a point or two in most polls, but it seems like it was also mostly Dems coming home rather than wooing over independents. Now, we're seeing most polls show the undecided starting to break for Trump, particularly in the Great Lakes swing states. None of that should be surprising. Kamala is not a strong candidate, and she is the defacto incumbent for a highly unpopular administration facing a long list of bad metrics on the issues most important to most voters - particularly the economy and border. Trump is running stronger on all of those issues because his longstanding policies are popular with 60-80% of the electorate. And some of Kamala's bump was "push" by media establishments in the tank for Democrats. Good news is, it seems like the "politics of joy" might not be enough to get her across the finish line.

Most polls have showed Trump competitive with or outright winning independents. Also showed him with equivalent party support as his competitor. When compared to 2016 & 2020, most polls have showed Trump with 8-10 points improvement across a range of indictors - approval ratings, head-to-head with Dem opponent, and support within a number of key demographics historically part of the Democrat coalition. Some polls have shown him actually winning Hispanic support.

I post a wide range of polls to offer landscape views.....some results from firms that historically favor Democrats, and some from firms that historically favor Republicans. Then there's Pew & Gallup for perspective: not partisan firms, and not always accurate, but at least objective.

What analysis all shows is a far closer race than 2016 or 2020, which is very good for Trump. And now we are getting some initial indicators that the race may be starting to break his way....that some blue states (VA) might even be competitive, and that Trump can afford to even campaign in NY and CA to help down-ballot races. None of that should be surprising, given circumstances, but it is nice to have some data to help guide the assessments.

The cynic's job is a lot easier. But Trump still has that cast-iron floor and Harris/Walz is a historically weak ticket of weirdos well outside the mainstream of American politics.

more consistent results - "best suited to deal with the problems" polling. To the extent these numbers are accurate, one should expect that undecideds will break for Trump.

#NEW BATTLEGROUND STATES poll, on the top issues

🔴 Immigration: Trump+16 (52%-36%)
🔴 Costs: Trump+11 (50%-39%)
🔴 Economy: Trump+10 (50%-40%)

WSJ | Sept. 28-Oct. 8 | N=2,100RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 11, 2024

The Trump-endorsed Senate Candidate in Arizona, @KariLake, crushed her Liberal Democrat Opponent last night, Radical Ruben Gallego. Kari will help me Secure our Border, Stop Inflation, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! In-person and absentee voting has now started in Arizona, so get… pic.twitter.com/BspNbR8AFW

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 11, 2024

I will cut the price of ENERGY and ELECTRICITY in HALF within 12 months. We will seriously expedite our environmental approvals, and quickly double our electricity capacity. This will DRIVE DOWN INFLATION, and make AMERICA and MICHIGAN the best place on earth to build a factory… pic.twitter.com/N3UFtLXf8L

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 10, 2024

Obama admits a total lack of enthusiasm for Kamala, especially with Black Men. I think Obama will be voting for me because he doesn’t like the fact that Kamala is an extremely Low IQ Person!

Donald Trump Truth Social 08:30 AM EST 10/11/24 @realDonaldTrump

— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) October 11, 2024

Baris said his poll will show a Trump lead in MICHIGAN. Not 4 points, but a clear lead. If this holds, the Top 3 2020 Michigan pollsters will show a Trump lead there (Atlas Intel, Insider Advantage, and Big Data Poll (Baris).

— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 11, 2024

Trump to join Fox News town hall with only women in audience https://t.co/fLM1p4cYRb

— Axios (@axios) October 11, 2024

Here's one guy who has figured out a few things:

https://notthebee.com/article/this-guys-take-on-the-2024-election-cycle-is-pretty-spot-on-and-i-never-looked-at-it-this-way

Kamala might be in even bigger trouble than people thought:

https://twitchy.com/samj/2024/10/11/obama-kamala-doesnt-excite-black-americans-watch-n2402039

historian said:

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Kamala might be in even bigger trouble than people thought:

https://twitchy.com/samj/2024/10/11/obama-kamala-doesnt-excite-black-americans-watch-n2402039

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Dems aren't stupid.

Obama knows his audience.

KaiBear said:

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historian said:

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Kamala might be in even bigger trouble than people thought:

https://twitchy.com/samj/2024/10/11/obama-kamala-doesnt-excite-black-americans-watch-n2402039

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Dems aren't stupid.

Obama knows his audience.

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Agree with you there. Obama is smart and an excellent Political operator. I disagree with his politics, but I do not underestimate his ability to win. He and Bill Clinton have the same ability to read the room.

Funny, I know a lady grew up in East Germany. Hated Clinton. Got invited to the White House for an award ceremony. When she came back asked what she said when she met him. She said when he talked to me, everyone else faded away and I wanted to believe him. She went in comparing to the Stasi, left more scared because she didn't think he would be able to sway her and did. She still can't stand him after she left, but when she was in the room... This is a tough no-nonsense East German lady that hates big govt. People underestimate how persuasive these people are to get where they are.

when you have a vote share problem, you also have a voter enthusiasm problem. Kamala is not only at risk of getting too small a percentage of the black vote; she's at risk of getting too small a percentage of a lower overall turnout of black vote. Bad math ensues.

WATCH: Kamala Harris suffers from a black voter enthusiasm problem - according to Barack Obama.

Georgia GOP Chairman @JoshMcKoon: "She has to win over 90% of the black voter here in Georgia to really put this in play."

"She's in the mid-70s."pic.twitter.com/7itbuj8nj3

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 11, 2024

FLBear5630 said:

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KaiBear said:

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historian said:

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Kamala might be in even bigger trouble than people thought:

https://twitchy.com/samj/2024/10/11/obama-kamala-doesnt-excite-black-americans-watch-n2402039

---

Dems aren't stupid.

Obama knows his audience.

---

Agree with you there. Obama is smart and an excellent Political operator. I disagree with his politics, but I do not underestimate his ability to win. He and Bill Clinton have the same ability to read the room.

Funny, I know a lady grew up in East Germany. Hated Clinton. Got invited to the White House for an award ceremony. When she came back asked what she said when she met him. She said when he talked to me, everyone else faded away and I wanted to believe him. She went in comparing to the Stasi, left more scared because she didn't think he would be able to sway her and did. She still can't stand him after she left, but when she was in the room... This is a tough no-nonsense East German lady that hates big govt. People underestimate how persuasive these people are to get where they are.

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Slick Wille was legendary for that. 99th percentile people skills.

KaiBear said:

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historian said:

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Kamala might be in even bigger trouble than people thought:

https://twitchy.com/samj/2024/10/11/obama-kamala-doesnt-excite-black-americans-watch-n2402039

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Dems aren't stupid.

Obama knows his audience.

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wont help

Many Dems actually are stupid. They advocate stupid policies not based on reality. They keep doing stupid things that have a record of massive failure. They believe lots of really stupid lies. They listen to the fascist propaganda coming from the MSM who are not even real journalists. And many still vote for morons like Joe Biden & Kamala Harris. There are many other examples.

They cannot even define what a woman is!

Effective ground game, with results not inconsistent with Gallup polling on party ID (+3 GOP).

🚨 BREAKING: For the first time in North Carolina history, Republicans have MORE ACTIVE VOTERS than Democrats (+3,371)

Over the last week, Republicans out-registered Democrats in North Carolina MORE than 2-to-1:
🔴 Republicans: +11,338
🔵 Democrats: +5,436

Data: @MichaelPruser

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 12, 2024

4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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historian said:

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Kamala might be in even bigger trouble than people thought:

https://twitchy.com/samj/2024/10/11/obama-kamala-doesnt-excite-black-americans-watch-n2402039

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Dems aren't stupid.

Obama knows his audience.

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wont help

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It will help motivate black gals to provide 'direction' to black men.

Combined with a clever manipulation of what a real man is.

KaiBear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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KaiBear said:

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historian said:

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Kamala might be in even bigger trouble than people thought:

https://twitchy.com/samj/2024/10/11/obama-kamala-doesnt-excite-black-americans-watch-n2402039

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Dems aren't stupid.

Obama knows his audience.

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wont help

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It will help motivate black gals to provide 'direction' to black men.

Combined with a clever manipulation of what a real man is.

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maybe.. i dont think it will help.. Obama wasnt helpful to the black community. This is his version "if you dont vote for me, you aint black"

#NEW VOTE-BY-MAIL requests weekly update

PENNSYLVANIA:
🔵 Democratic: 60.4% [-1.3]
🔴 Republican: 28% [+1]
✅ GOP gain from 2020: R+8.6

NORTH CAROLINA:
🔵 Democratic: 35.4% [-0.6]
🔴 Republican: 25.3% [+0.3]
✅ GOP gain from 2020: R+17.9

[Change in last week]

Data:…

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 12, 2024

I don’t think any of these people realize just how crazy unstable a situation it is when the men begin to abandon you en masse. This is a real “chuckles, I’m in danger” moment that is just now kicking off in earnest. https://t.co/KwbmCEEsMB

— Edward Badgette (@acrimonyand) October 11, 2024

whiterock said:

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when you have a vote share problem, you also have a voter enthusiasm problem. Kamala is not only at risk of getting too small a percentage of the black vote; she's at risk of getting too small a percentage of a lower overall turnout of black vote. Bad math ensues.

WATCH: Kamala Harris suffers from a black voter enthusiasm problem - according to Barack Obama.

Georgia GOP Chairman @JoshMcKoon: "She has to win over 90% of the black voter here in Georgia to really put this in play."

"She's in the mid-70s."pic.twitter.com/7itbuj8nj3

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 11, 2024

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She might not need that much (90%) if they cheat enough.

Odds Republicans sweep the Presidency, House, and Senate are up to 39%. pic.twitter.com/3hboH7fSSi

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 11, 2024

"If Trump wins on November 5, it will be because of his support from a majority of white America. As a white American, and a white American man to boot, I’ve got to say, in the immortal words of Pogo: We have met the enemy and he is us."https://t.co/eL41x5f3LO

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) October 11, 2024

KaiBear said:

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Historian…..

Unfortunately that is a dying demographic.

Evidenced by the vast number of apartments under construction compared to custom single family houses.

Too many folks don't have the brains or work ethnic to earn that custom home; hence the need for cheap one or two bedroom apartments.

And some of those individuals settle for a life dependent on government handouts .

So they vote Democrat.

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That has to be one of the dumber takes on residences by class ive ever seen. People are too lazy to work? Lol. People are the same as they always are.

Porteroso said:

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KaiBear said:

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Historian…..

Unfortunately that is a dying demographic.

Evidenced by the vast number of apartments under construction compared to custom single family houses.

Too many folks don't have the brains or work ethnic to earn that custom home; hence the need for cheap one or two bedroom apartments.

And some of those individuals settle for a life dependent on government handouts .

So they vote Democrat.

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That has to be one of the dumber takes on residences by class ive ever seen. People are too lazy to work? Lol. People are the same as they always are.

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Good grief you have been ridiculously sheltered.

There are literally millions of Americans too lazy to work.

Have seen many examples first hand where people have quit their jobs the moment their fraudulent 'disability' claim got approved.

Jack Bauer said:

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"If Trump wins on November 5, it will be because of his support from a majority of white America. As a white American, and a white American man to boot, I’ve got to say, in the immortal words of Pogo: We have met the enemy and he is us."https://t.co/eL41x5f3LO

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) October 11, 2024

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yes, the enemy is defintely the current ultra progressive dem party..

Their desperation is growing by the day pic.twitter.com/IzCZf5CGEI

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 12, 2024

KaiBear said:

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Jack Bauer said:

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Their desperation is growing by the day pic.twitter.com/IzCZf5CGEI

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 12, 2024

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Can anyone even imagine the national outrage if a Church posted something similar in such racial hyperbole in support of Trump ?


How is it our country tolerates such a constant and flagrant double standard ?

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What an insult to previous generations.

Can you imagine comparing your struggles today to those of your grandparents during the Great Depression and WW II?

Jack Bauer said:

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KaiBear said:

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Jack Bauer said:

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Their desperation is growing by the day pic.twitter.com/IzCZf5CGEI

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 12, 2024

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Can anyone even imagine the national outrage if a Church posted something similar in such racial hyperbole in support of Trump ?


How is it our country tolerates such a constant and flagrant double standard ?

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What an insult to previous generations.

Can you imagine comparing your struggles today to those of your grandparents during the Great Depression and WW II?

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My father grew up hopelessly poor in Los Angeles during the Great Depression.
Then joined the Navy making 21 dollars a month just in time to be on the USS Selfridge at Pearl Harbor on December 7th 1941.

Saw constant combat. In one night action alone, 20% of his shipmates were killed when the ship was hit by a Japanese torpedo.