Mitch Blood Green said:
whiterock said:
Mitch Blood Green said:
All you DeSantis hats are up against the unfairness of the primary cycle. By Super Tuesday, your vote often won't matter.
We will see.
maybe, maybe not. RDS will win FL bigly and it's a huge pile of delegates early in the cycle. It's his ace in the hole.
I see very high odds of a two-man race running long down the stretch
I agree on the two man race. When does it drop to two? That's the point I hoped to make. If Trump
bags 10 states before It's down to two. That's a large bill to climb.
Ok, there are only 4 Primaries before Super Tuesday. So, even if he loses all 4 Trump will stay in until Super Tuesday. So, where does he pick up enough to beat RDS or Halley? Primary ScheduleMon, Jan 22Iowa caucuses - Cruz beat him in 2016 here.
Tue, Jan 30New Hampshire primary - Trump lost in 2020 and 2016 Primary
Tue, Feb 6Nevada Primary - He lost 2020. Won 2016 Primary
Sat, Feb 24South Carolina Republican primary - Won both 2020 and 016 Primary. (Does Halley hurt him here?)
Super TuesdayTue, Mar 5Alabama primary - Based on history, should be a safe Trump win. (6 Delegates)
Arkansas primary - Based on history, should be a safe Trump win. (9 Delegates)
California primary - Does he take CA? This is a big one, 172 Delegates
Colorado primary - No Primary. Do they select Trump?
Maine primary - Trump has never won ME.
Massachusetts primary - Liz's State? Does he win here?
Minnesota primary - Never won in MN.
North Carolina primary - Based on history, should be a safe Trump win. (29 Delegates last time)
Oklahoma primary - Cruz beat him in 2016 here.
Tennessee primary - Based on history, should be a safe Trump win. (29 Delegates last time)
Texas primary - Cruz beat him in 2016 here.
Utah primary- Cruz beat him in 2016 here.
Vermont primary - Based on history, should be a safe Trump win. (8 Delegates)
Virginia primary - He lost 2020. Won 2016 Primary
So coming out of Super Tuesday, using history as a base and how the populations voted. I say he safely wraps up about 52 delegates of the 1276 or so delegates needed. He will win some, split and lose some of the others in real life. But so will the others. The point is that he will not be in a position after Super Tuesday to be the Nominee to the point others drop out. If you go to the 12th, he will get Miss. But MI? Then you are on the 19th and the big dogs of FL and AZ both winner take all, that he NEEDED in 16 and 20.My point is not the history has anything to do with the future, but that like the NCAA Tourney, alot has to do with the field he is facing (in this case RDS takes FL, Halley takes SC, and who else?), the electoral college (his die-hard supporters are small states) and the timing. Sorry, I do not see a King Donald in this election no matter how the polls want to project it. This schedule, field (if RDS runs) and timing does not make for a Trump roll. He gave that up on Jan 6th, those that liked Jan 6th will not be enough to win a State of significance.