Redbrickbear said:

---

500 Days of War
My assessment of the conflict up until now. Yours may differ.
-Niccolo Soldo


[When Russian forces invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, my first reaction was that we were about to see where the borders between East and West would be fixed for the next few decades. Would it be along the Dnieper? Or would it return to the eastern edge of Galicia, like during the Habsburg era? 500 days into this war, that border presently lies east of Kharkov.

By 2015, the USA had finally cornered Russia after several previously failed attempts. The war in the Donbass had been frozen, the pro-western regime in Kiev entrenched, and western arms and military advisors began to flood into Ukraine. Despite the delusions and/or navet of many pro-Kremlin scribblers and analysts, that pro-western course was never in danger of collapsing, with Ukraine returning to the Russian fold.
Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, explained in 1997 that the loss of Ukraine for Russia meant that it would be reduced in status to that of a regional power:

Quote:

---

Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state, more likely to be drawn into debilitating conflicts with aroused Central Asians, who would then be resentful of the loss of their recent independence and would be supported by their fellow Islamic states to the south. China would also be likely to oppose any restoration of Russian domination over Central Asia, given its increasing interest in the newly independent states there. However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.

---

The desire to cut post-Soviet Russia down to size has been the driving force of NATO's eastward expansion since the end of the Cold War. This is undeniable.
"Keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down", was how NATO's first Secretary General, Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay, described what the actual purpose of that organization was. His words are enshrined on the official NATO website. Click here to see for yourself:

Almost seven decades after the end of his tenure at NATO, the score is:

• the Soviets are long gone
• the Germans have never been more down than they are right now
• not only are the Americans still in, they are more dominant in Europe than they have ever been

The refusal, or inability, of Russia to effect regime change in Kiev in 2014-15 placed Moscow in check. They would either have to accept NATO expansion into Ukraine, or they would have to invade to prevent that unacceptable situation from arising, even if it meant a war of aggression, and all of the negative fallout that would come attached to it.

While Ukraine busied itself with turning west in the hopes of future NATO and EU membership, the Russians built up a war chest to be able to sail through what would be a punishing sanctions regime that would be leveled against it when they eventually would invade their neighbour. Russia was left with two bad options by 2015, choosing invasion over acquiescence to further NATO encroachment on its western borders as the better one to protect its national security interests. Russia chose military aggression because in its calculus, a NATOized Ukraine would deal it an existential blow from which it might not ever possibly recover.
On the other hand, the Americans set themselves up for a win-win; a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be seen as military aggression, and would be instantly punished with crippling sanctions. Most important of all, it would serve to sever all political and economic ties between Moscow and Europe. If the Russians chose not to invade, Ukraine would be gradually incorporated into NATO structures, either de jure or de facto. Russia would be reduced to the status of a regional Asian power, as per Brzezinski.

500 days into this conflict, and it is impossible to deny that this a proxy war between the USA and Russia. As it stands right now, the Americans are the big winners, the Russians are the small winners, the EU are the small losers, and Ukraine is the big loser. I made this very same assessment in the first days of the war, and my contention is that it still holds true...]

---

I agree that Russia is a small winner, EU a small loser, and Ukraine a big loser (to put it mildly). The US is also a small loser in the short run and possibly a big loser overall. We've isolated ourselves from the rest of the world, most of which wants to see the war end. Yes, we're more dominant in Europe, but we're also less credible than we've ever been. We've buffaloed them into one stupid war after another, but none as dangerous to Europe as this one. The usefulness of NATO will increasingly come into question, and rightly so.

Tucker: Mexico sends fentanyl into the US killing hundreds of thousands

Russia hasn’t killed a single American

Why is Russia our sworn enemy & Mexico is our ally?

Tim Scott: well…uhh…this is why we need to send more weapons to Ukrainepic.twitter.com/AkPZmPG6PH

— DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) July 14, 2023

Tucker: "Every city in America has become worse over the past few years... Your concern is that Ukraine don't have enough tanks... Where's the concern for America in that?"

Pence: "That's not my concern." pic.twitter.com/u2RlmmrhtM

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) July 14, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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KaiBear said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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They want WW3

I will be working with Republicans and Democrats in the Senate to pass a resolution urging the admission of Ukraine into NATO.

The best way to prevent future wars and promote peace is to create security guarantees that make aggressor nations think twice before starting wars.…

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) July 7, 2023

---

Only because they believe they won't be doing the dying .

---

The reason Ukraine and Taiwan are vulnerable and in the positions they are in is because they are isolated, to be picked off at Russia and China's convenience. If Taiwan was included in with S Korea, Japan, Singapore and Australia they would be in a safer position. Same with Ukraine, if they were admitted in the 90's with Poland and the Baltics all this would not have happened.

---

A counter argument would be that Taiwan and Ukraine are so vial to China/Russia that if Taiwan had been included in a "Pacific NATO" and if Ukraine had been allowed to join NATO in the late 90s it would have set off a war much sooner. These adversaries being of course nuclear armed

Just as the USA has a sphere of influence (one of the largest on earth...or that the earth has ever had) other nations have spheres of influence as well.

China has long said that Taiwan is a redline for them (status quo must remain, no USA troops on Taiwan, no military alliance)... And Russia has said the same about places like Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia.

They have shown that they will fight for these areas.

The question of course for us is.....what does this matter to the American people?

These places are not vital to the USA. We can make semiconductors in S. Korea, Japan, or here at home as easily as we can in Taiwan (small island of barely 23 million people). And Ukraine's rusting out factories and farmlands are not of vital importance to the USA. Not while we have the American Midwest (greatest farm belt on earth) and the Canadian farming prairie provinces.

---

What an incredibly limited understanding of foreign affairs.....

---

The USA has survived for 250 years without Ukraine being in our sphere of influence.

Ukraine on the other hand has been under Russian control since the 1600s....in one form or another.

Americans will be just fine without fighting a war over Ukraine...or having much to do with the place in general.

Now the USA elite might be a different story....they seem strangely obsessed with this corrupt rotting out and depopulating ex-soviet State thousands of miles away.

(D.C is 5,000 miles away from Ukraine)

---

An argument based on a false premise - that we are fighting a war over Ukraine. We. Are. Not. Ukraine and Russia are fighting a war over Ukraine. That we do have a strong national interest in the outcome of that war (which affects the stability of alliances to which we are a party) and are making nominal investments in its outcome does not mean we are actually a party to it. We are doing the logical thing - providing modest levels of financial assistance to a country capable of achieving a desirable outcome, rather than letting it be decided by the whims of an autocratic power who has for decades relentlessly soughts to undermine American power and wealth across the world. An independent and stable Ukraine insulates our largest trade partner (the EU) from a threat which could drastically negatively impact the wealth of every single American citizen.

All for a nominal cost of approx $0.43 per citizen per day. ($76b divided by 500 days, divided by 350m).
Chicken Feed.
Literally.

Like I said. You have a 17th century view of the world which holds that the oceans separating us from everywhere else render everywhere else is irrelevant. Not so. Times change. There were a larger number of centuries when Russia was under Ukrainian control. If Russia doesn't learn to be a more responsible neighbor, it might end up being so again. All we've done so far is exercise soft power. We could so squash Russia if we really decided to get riled up.

Redbrickbear said:

---

What makes the prospects of ever rebuilding Ukraine worse...is that most of the young people already want to move to Western Europe...not stay in cold, corrupt, wartorn eastern Europe...and many who have left are never coming back.


[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/
Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population?

Natalka Korzh, 52, a TV director and mother-of-two, left behind a newly-built dream house when she escaped the rockets falling on Kyiv in the early days of the war. She is only just finding her feet in Portugal, and doesn't plan on packing up her life again even when fighting stops in Ukraine.


"We need to somehow try to return them to Ukraine, because we already see that the longer people are abroad, the less they want to return", said Kostiuk, whose company relocated its research lab and staff to Kyiv, from close to the front line.]

---

actually, the flows have turned positive.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/20/1099876370/ukraine-russia-poland-border-return
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-return-europe/
https://qz.com/ukraine-russia-war-enters-second-year-ukrainians-return-1850154535

Sam Lowry said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

500 Days of War
My assessment of the conflict up until now. Yours may differ.
-Niccolo Soldo


[When Russian forces invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, my first reaction was that we were about to see where the borders between East and West would be fixed for the next few decades. Would it be along the Dnieper? Or would it return to the eastern edge of Galicia, like during the Habsburg era? 500 days into this war, that border presently lies east of Kharkov.

By 2015, the USA had finally cornered Russia after several previously failed attempts. The war in the Donbass had been frozen, the pro-western regime in Kiev entrenched, and western arms and military advisors began to flood into Ukraine. Despite the delusions and/or navet of many pro-Kremlin scribblers and analysts, that pro-western course was never in danger of collapsing, with Ukraine returning to the Russian fold.
Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, explained in 1997 that the loss of Ukraine for Russia meant that it would be reduced in status to that of a regional power:

Quote:

---

Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state, more likely to be drawn into debilitating conflicts with aroused Central Asians, who would then be resentful of the loss of their recent independence and would be supported by their fellow Islamic states to the south. China would also be likely to oppose any restoration of Russian domination over Central Asia, given its increasing interest in the newly independent states there. However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.

---

The desire to cut post-Soviet Russia down to size has been the driving force of NATO's eastward expansion since the end of the Cold War. This is undeniable.
"Keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down", was how NATO's first Secretary General, Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay, described what the actual purpose of that organization was. His words are enshrined on the official NATO website. Click here to see for yourself:

Almost seven decades after the end of his tenure at NATO, the score is:

• the Soviets are long gone
• the Germans have never been more down than they are right now
• not only are the Americans still in, they are more dominant in Europe than they have ever been

The refusal, or inability, of Russia to effect regime change in Kiev in 2014-15 placed Moscow in check. They would either have to accept NATO expansion into Ukraine, or they would have to invade to prevent that unacceptable situation from arising, even if it meant a war of aggression, and all of the negative fallout that would come attached to it.

While Ukraine busied itself with turning west in the hopes of future NATO and EU membership, the Russians built up a war chest to be able to sail through what would be a punishing sanctions regime that would be leveled against it when they eventually would invade their neighbour. Russia was left with two bad options by 2015, choosing invasion over acquiescence to further NATO encroachment on its western borders as the better one to protect its national security interests. Russia chose military aggression because in its calculus, a NATOized Ukraine would deal it an existential blow from which it might not ever possibly recover.
On the other hand, the Americans set themselves up for a win-win; a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be seen as military aggression, and would be instantly punished with crippling sanctions. Most important of all, it would serve to sever all political and economic ties between Moscow and Europe. If the Russians chose not to invade, Ukraine would be gradually incorporated into NATO structures, either de jure or de facto. Russia would be reduced to the status of a regional Asian power, as per Brzezinski.

500 days into this conflict, and it is impossible to deny that this a proxy war between the USA and Russia. As it stands right now, the Americans are the big winners, the Russians are the small winners, the EU are the small losers, and Ukraine is the big loser. I made this very same assessment in the first days of the war, and my contention is that it still holds true...]

---

I agree that Russia is a small winner, EU a small loser, and Ukraine a big loser (to put it mildly). The US is also a small loser in the short run and possibly a big loser overall. We've isolated ourselves from the rest of the world, most of which wants to see the war end. Yes, we're more dominant in Europe, but we're also less credible than we've ever been. We've buffaloed them into one stupid war after another, but none as dangerous to Europe as this one. The usefulness of NATO will increasingly come into question, and rightly so.

---

The author's statement in bold explicitly accepts the Russian premise that NATO is a threat to Russia. Except that it is not a threat to Russia. Western classical liberalism is a threat to the Putin regime, not Russia.

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

500 Days of War
My assessment of the conflict up until now. Yours may differ.
-Niccolo Soldo


[When Russian forces invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, my first reaction was that we were about to see where the borders between East and West would be fixed for the next few decades. Would it be along the Dnieper? Or would it return to the eastern edge of Galicia, like during the Habsburg era? 500 days into this war, that border presently lies east of Kharkov.

By 2015, the USA had finally cornered Russia after several previously failed attempts. The war in the Donbass had been frozen, the pro-western regime in Kiev entrenched, and western arms and military advisors began to flood into Ukraine. Despite the delusions and/or navet of many pro-Kremlin scribblers and analysts, that pro-western course was never in danger of collapsing, with Ukraine returning to the Russian fold.
Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, explained in 1997 that the loss of Ukraine for Russia meant that it would be reduced in status to that of a regional power:

Quote:

---

Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state, more likely to be drawn into debilitating conflicts with aroused Central Asians, who would then be resentful of the loss of their recent independence and would be supported by their fellow Islamic states to the south. China would also be likely to oppose any restoration of Russian domination over Central Asia, given its increasing interest in the newly independent states there. However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.

---

The desire to cut post-Soviet Russia down to size has been the driving force of NATO's eastward expansion since the end of the Cold War. This is undeniable.
"Keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down", was how NATO's first Secretary General, Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay, described what the actual purpose of that organization was. His words are enshrined on the official NATO website. Click here to see for yourself:

Almost seven decades after the end of his tenure at NATO, the score is:

• the Soviets are long gone
• the Germans have never been more down than they are right now
• not only are the Americans still in, they are more dominant in Europe than they have ever been

The refusal, or inability, of Russia to effect regime change in Kiev in 2014-15 placed Moscow in check. They would either have to accept NATO expansion into Ukraine, or they would have to invade to prevent that unacceptable situation from arising, even if it meant a war of aggression, and all of the negative fallout that would come attached to it.

While Ukraine busied itself with turning west in the hopes of future NATO and EU membership, the Russians built up a war chest to be able to sail through what would be a punishing sanctions regime that would be leveled against it when they eventually would invade their neighbour. Russia was left with two bad options by 2015, choosing invasion over acquiescence to further NATO encroachment on its western borders as the better one to protect its national security interests. Russia chose military aggression because in its calculus, a NATOized Ukraine would deal it an existential blow from which it might not ever possibly recover.
On the other hand, the Americans set themselves up for a win-win; a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be seen as military aggression, and would be instantly punished with crippling sanctions. Most important of all, it would serve to sever all political and economic ties between Moscow and Europe. If the Russians chose not to invade, Ukraine would be gradually incorporated into NATO structures, either de jure or de facto. Russia would be reduced to the status of a regional Asian power, as per Brzezinski.

500 days into this conflict, and it is impossible to deny that this a proxy war between the USA and Russia. As it stands right now, the Americans are the big winners, the Russians are the small winners, the EU are the small losers, and Ukraine is the big loser. I made this very same assessment in the first days of the war, and my contention is that it still holds true...]

---

I agree that Russia is a small winner, EU a small loser, and Ukraine a big loser (to put it mildly). The US is also a small loser in the short run and possibly a big loser overall. We've isolated ourselves from the rest of the world, most of which wants to see the war end. Yes, we're more dominant in Europe, but we're also less credible than we've ever been. We've buffaloed them into one stupid war after another, but none as dangerous to Europe as this one. The usefulness of NATO will increasingly come into question, and rightly so.

---

The author's statement in bold explicitly accepts the Russian premise that NATO is a threat to Russia. Except that it is not a threat to Russia. Western classical liberalism is a threat to the Putin regime, not Russia.

---

Nonsense.

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

What makes the prospects of ever rebuilding Ukraine worse...is that most of the young people already want to move to Western Europe...not stay in cold, corrupt, wartorn eastern Europe...and many who have left are never coming back.


[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/
Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population?

Natalka Korzh, 52, a TV director and mother-of-two, left behind a newly-built dream house when she escaped the rockets falling on Kyiv in the early days of the war. She is only just finding her feet in Portugal, and doesn't plan on packing up her life again even when fighting stops in Ukraine.


"We need to somehow try to return them to Ukraine, because we already see that the longer people are abroad, the less they want to return", said Kostiuk, whose company relocated its research lab and staff to Kyiv, from close to the front line.]

---

actually, the flows have turned positive.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/20/1099876370/ukraine-russia-poland-border-return
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-return-europe/
https://qz.com/ukraine-russia-war-enters-second-year-ukrainians-return-1850154535

---

Truly BS

The flows have not been positive since the 1990s...the young are always looking to move to the better paying-more opportunity zones in Western Europe.

Now some of the pensioners might be headed home. That is even happening in Syria (which is still an active war zone and much more destroyed than Ukraine)

But there is no evidence that the youth are looking to move back to low paying jobs in Ukraine and deal with a war torn country with a corruption problem.

And the under 40 age group is what matters...not what the 65+ age group is doing.

Tucker exposing each and every swamp creature, Trump doesn’t even have to show https://t.co/rEiuVGtekR

— Original Roland Rat ☯️ (@OGRolandRat) July 14, 2023

Tucker Carlson asks neocon Nikki Haley: "who blew up the Nord Stream Pipeline?"

She is speechless... pic.twitter.com/WunfGsQLMF

— Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinklle) July 14, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

---

Tucker exposing each and every swamp creature, Trump doesn’t even have to show https://t.co/rEiuVGtekR

— Original Roland Rat ☯️ (@OGRolandRat) July 14, 2023

Tucker Carlson asks neocon Nikki Haley: "who blew up the Nord Stream Pipeline?"

She is speechless... pic.twitter.com/WunfGsQLMF

— Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinklle) July 14, 2023

---

I don't think DeSantis is warmongering there. What he's saying, in his clumsy way, is that this ought to be more Europe's problem than our problem.

Sam Lowry said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Tucker exposing each and every swamp creature, Trump doesn’t even have to show https://t.co/rEiuVGtekR

— Original Roland Rat ☯️ (@OGRolandRat) July 14, 2023

Tucker Carlson asks neocon Nikki Haley: "who blew up the Nord Stream Pipeline?"

She is speechless... pic.twitter.com/WunfGsQLMF

— Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 (@jacksonhinklle) July 14, 2023

---

I don't think DeSantis is warmongering there. What he's saying, in his clumsy way, is that this ought to be more Europe's problem than our problem.

---

You are probably right.

Based Ron DeSantis answers questions from Tucker Carlson about the Ukraine, Russia conflict:

"I wish the elites cared more about our border than they do about the Ukraine Russia border."

"As president I would prioritize the threats to our national security."

"The goal should… pic.twitter.com/ptncJTygK5

— Scott Morefield (@SKMorefield) July 14, 2023

Cornel West on CNN says NATO "provoked" Russia's invasion of Ukraine, calls for "concessions of territory" to stop the war, and says the US "bears significant responsibility." But he adds that he's not "pro Putin," so there's that. pic.twitter.com/SqIEwdiE9j

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) July 14, 2023

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

500 Days of War
My assessment of the conflict up until now. Yours may differ.
-Niccolo Soldo


[When Russian forces invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, my first reaction was that we were about to see where the borders between East and West would be fixed for the next few decades. Would it be along the Dnieper? Or would it return to the eastern edge of Galicia, like during the Habsburg era? 500 days into this war, that border presently lies east of Kharkov.

By 2015, the USA had finally cornered Russia after several previously failed attempts. The war in the Donbass had been frozen, the pro-western regime in Kiev entrenched, and western arms and military advisors began to flood into Ukraine. Despite the delusions and/or navet of many pro-Kremlin scribblers and analysts, that pro-western course was never in danger of collapsing, with Ukraine returning to the Russian fold.
Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, explained in 1997 that the loss of Ukraine for Russia meant that it would be reduced in status to that of a regional power:

Quote:

---

Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian imperial state, more likely to be drawn into debilitating conflicts with aroused Central Asians, who would then be resentful of the loss of their recent independence and would be supported by their fellow Islamic states to the south. China would also be likely to oppose any restoration of Russian domination over Central Asia, given its increasing interest in the newly independent states there. However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.

---

The desire to cut post-Soviet Russia down to size has been the driving force of NATO's eastward expansion since the end of the Cold War. This is undeniable.
"Keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down", was how NATO's first Secretary General, Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay, described what the actual purpose of that organization was. His words are enshrined on the official NATO website. Click here to see for yourself:

Almost seven decades after the end of his tenure at NATO, the score is:

• the Soviets are long gone
• the Germans have never been more down than they are right now
• not only are the Americans still in, they are more dominant in Europe than they have ever been

The refusal, or inability, of Russia to effect regime change in Kiev in 2014-15 placed Moscow in check. They would either have to accept NATO expansion into Ukraine, or they would have to invade to prevent that unacceptable situation from arising, even if it meant a war of aggression, and all of the negative fallout that would come attached to it.

While Ukraine busied itself with turning west in the hopes of future NATO and EU membership, the Russians built up a war chest to be able to sail through what would be a punishing sanctions regime that would be leveled against it when they eventually would invade their neighbour. Russia was left with two bad options by 2015, choosing invasion over acquiescence to further NATO encroachment on its western borders as the better one to protect its national security interests. Russia chose military aggression because in its calculus, a NATOized Ukraine would deal it an existential blow from which it might not ever possibly recover.
On the other hand, the Americans set themselves up for a win-win; a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be seen as military aggression, and would be instantly punished with crippling sanctions. Most important of all, it would serve to sever all political and economic ties between Moscow and Europe. If the Russians chose not to invade, Ukraine would be gradually incorporated into NATO structures, either de jure or de facto. Russia would be reduced to the status of a regional Asian power, as per Brzezinski.

500 days into this conflict, and it is impossible to deny that this a proxy war between the USA and Russia. As it stands right now, the Americans are the big winners, the Russians are the small winners, the EU are the small losers, and Ukraine is the big loser. I made this very same assessment in the first days of the war, and my contention is that it still holds true...]

---

I agree that Russia is a small winner, EU a small loser, and Ukraine a big loser (to put it mildly). The US is also a small loser in the short run and possibly a big loser overall. We've isolated ourselves from the rest of the world, most of which wants to see the war end. Yes, we're more dominant in Europe, but we're also less credible than we've ever been. We've buffaloed them into one stupid war after another, but none as dangerous to Europe as this one. The usefulness of NATO will increasingly come into question, and rightly so.

---

The author's statement in bold explicitly accepts the Russian premise that NATO is a threat to Russia. Except that it is not a threat to Russia. Western classical liberalism is a threat to the Putin regime, not Russia.

---

Nonsense.

---

Reading comprehension problem compounded by assessment of reality problem.

This is the kind of stuff former CIA Director Michael Hayden retweets: That American conservatives are Taliban and Nazis and should be repressed. Hayden was a Republican, so you can imagine what the intelligence community is really like. pic.twitter.com/r5dCABcxBQ

— J Michael Waller (@JMichaelWaller) July 15, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

---

This is the kind of stuff former CIA Director Michael Hayden retweets: That American conservatives are Taliban and Nazis and should be repressed. Hayden was a Republican, so you can imagine what the intelligence community is really like. pic.twitter.com/r5dCABcxBQ

— J Michael Waller (@JMichaelWaller) July 15, 2023

---

Popper's Paradox of Tolerance. Hayden has identified those he intends to repress.

Redbrickbear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

What makes the prospects of ever rebuilding Ukraine worse...is that most of the young people already want to move to Western Europe...not stay in cold, corrupt, wartorn eastern Europe...and many who have left are never coming back.


[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/
Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population?

Natalka Korzh, 52, a TV director and mother-of-two, left behind a newly-built dream house when she escaped the rockets falling on Kyiv in the early days of the war. She is only just finding her feet in Portugal, and doesn't plan on packing up her life again even when fighting stops in Ukraine.


"We need to somehow try to return them to Ukraine, because we already see that the longer people are abroad, the less they want to return", said Kostiuk, whose company relocated its research lab and staff to Kyiv, from close to the front line.]

---

actually, the flows have turned positive.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/20/1099876370/ukraine-russia-poland-border-return
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-return-europe/
https://qz.com/ukraine-russia-war-enters-second-year-ukrainians-return-1850154535

---

Truly BS

The flows have not been positive since the 1990s...the young are always looking to move to the better paying-more opportunity zones in Western Europe.

Now some of the pensioners might be headed home. That is even happening in Syria (which is still an active war zone and much more destroyed than Ukraine)

But there is no evidence that the youth are looking to move back to low paying jobs in Ukraine and deal with a war torn country with a corruption problem.

And the under 40 age group is what matters...not what the 65+ age group is doing.

---

So how different from Communism? They can't leave for fear they will not return. Defection??? Putin has recreated 1960s USSR.

Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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What makes the prospects of ever rebuilding Ukraine worse...is that most of the young people already want to move to Western Europe...not stay in cold, corrupt, wartorn eastern Europe...and many who have left are never coming back.


[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/
Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population?

Natalka Korzh, 52, a TV director and mother-of-two, left behind a newly-built dream house when she escaped the rockets falling on Kyiv in the early days of the war. She is only just finding her feet in Portugal, and doesn't plan on packing up her life again even when fighting stops in Ukraine.


"We need to somehow try to return them to Ukraine, because we already see that the longer people are abroad, the less they want to return", said Kostiuk, whose company relocated its research lab and staff to Kyiv, from close to the front line.]

---

actually, the flows have turned positive.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/20/1099876370/ukraine-russia-poland-border-return
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-return-europe/
https://qz.com/ukraine-russia-war-enters-second-year-ukrainians-return-1850154535

---

Truly BS

The flows have not been positive since the 1990s...the young are always looking to move to the better paying-more opportunity zones in Western Europe.

Now some of the pensioners might be headed home. That is even happening in Syria (which is still an active war zone and much more destroyed than Ukraine)

But there is no evidence that the youth are looking to move back to low paying jobs in Ukraine and deal with a war torn country with a corruption problem.

And the under 40 age group is what matters...not what the 65+ age group is doing.

---

you changed the benchmarks to something I didn't argue - the young.

I just noted a number of sources showing the refugee flows have reversed. Regardless of age, those are consumers and workers returning home and that is a positive dynamic. Europe COULD start canceling asylum status and send most of them home. More likely, the Marshall Plan type aid packages Ukraine will receive after the war will likely make Ukraine the strongest economy in Europe for a decade or so and that will get a lot of things moving in a positive direction. "rising tide lifting all boats" dynamic.

Future threats to Ukraine are mostly political, not economic. If they can avoid the political pitfalls, the economic stuff will work out fine.

whiterock said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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whiterock said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

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What makes the prospects of ever rebuilding Ukraine worse...is that most of the young people already want to move to Western Europe...not stay in cold, corrupt, wartorn eastern Europe...and many who have left are never coming back.


[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/
Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population?

Natalka Korzh, 52, a TV director and mother-of-two, left behind a newly-built dream house when she escaped the rockets falling on Kyiv in the early days of the war. She is only just finding her feet in Portugal, and doesn't plan on packing up her life again even when fighting stops in Ukraine.


"We need to somehow try to return them to Ukraine, because we already see that the longer people are abroad, the less they want to return", said Kostiuk, whose company relocated its research lab and staff to Kyiv, from close to the front line.]

---

actually, the flows have turned positive.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/20/1099876370/ukraine-russia-poland-border-return
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-return-europe/
https://qz.com/ukraine-russia-war-enters-second-year-ukrainians-return-1850154535

---

Truly BS

The flows have not been positive since the 1990s...the young are always looking to move to the better paying-more opportunity zones in Western Europe.

Now some of the pensioners might be headed home. That is even happening in Syria (which is still an active war zone and much more destroyed than Ukraine)

But there is no evidence that the youth are looking to move back to low paying jobs in Ukraine and deal with a war torn country with a corruption problem.

And the under 40 age group is what matters...not what the 65+ age group is doing.

---

you changed the benchmarks to something I didn't argue - the young.

I just noted a number of sources showing the refugee flows have reversed. Regardless of age, those are consumers and workers returning home and that is a positive dynamic. Europe COULD start canceling asylum status and send most of them home. More likely, the Marshall Plan type aid packages Ukraine will receive after the war will likely make Ukraine the strongest economy in Europe for a decade or so and that will get a lot of things moving in a positive direction. "rising tide lifting all boats" dynamic.

Future threats to Ukraine are mostly political, not economic. If they can avoid the political pitfalls, the economic stuff will work out fine.

---

Being in NATO and the EU solves those issues, even losing Crimes and Donbas

Who really started the war in Ukraine?

April 2014
Victoria Nuland: "US has invested some $5 billion in Ukraine, since 1991... That money has been spent on supporting the aspirations of the Ukrainian people to have a strong, democratic government that represents their interests." pic.twitter.com/D6FnC8i786

— the Lemniscat (@theLemniscat) July 15, 2023

pic.twitter.com/mJPpPMoQSb

— Cyborgigy (@FrogstarWorld) July 16, 2023

👇 2014 pic.twitter.com/UBjedNJMPi

— Dexter.................... (@Dexter_B_B) July 16, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

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👇 2014 pic.twitter.com/UBjedNJMPi

— Dexter.................... (@Dexter_B_B) July 16, 2023

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how, exactly, does foreign aid and investment "drag us to war"?

W T F?

While announcing even MORE aid for Ukraine, Samantha Powers says it's America's job to thank Ukraine:

"No no, thank you President Zelensky. Thank you mental healthcare workers, those who are counseling people who suffer gender-based violence."

Pure Insanity pic.twitter.com/ARr9xSaBMm

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) July 27, 2023

Jack Bauer said:

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W T F?

While announcing even MORE aid for Ukraine, Samantha Powers says it's America's job to thank Ukraine:

"No no, thank you President Zelensky. Thank you mental healthcare workers, those who are counseling people who suffer gender-based violence."

Pure Insanity pic.twitter.com/ARr9xSaBMm

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) July 27, 2023

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meh. tens of people saw that, and fewer than that worry about it.

Redbrickbear said:

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👇 2014 pic.twitter.com/UBjedNJMPi

— Dexter.................... (@Dexter_B_B) July 16, 2023

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**** Victoria Nuland.

Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

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Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

---

Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

---

War policy critics fail to appreciate how their arguments, over and over and over, are just warmed-over Russian appeasement. "Ukraine, like, belongs to Russia. Forever. How dare they chart a different path..."

and then they double down on "we're on a path to war with Russia" when exactly the opposite is the case. We have already ground down the Russian war machine to the point it is over a decade away from reconstitution. The best defense NATO has against war with Russia is total destruction of the Russian artillery and armored corps, which is proceeding apace.

They finish off with the argument that we are wasting time and resources in Ukraine that could be better used to deal with our real enemy - China - which of course is pathologically blind to the reality that one of the best things one could do to deal with China is make it's #1 asset an irrelevant basket case dependent on Chinese largesse. Yes, we are dipping into (very old) inventory (most of which is scheduled for the scrap heap) to keep the Ukrainian military in the field. But now China is having to do the same. We are also strangling Russia with soft power that will be even more effective on China than Russia. Reality is, what we've done thus far has forced China to push the pause button on forceful options for Taiwan. Yes, China could, possibly, simultaneously keep supporting Russia and also attack Taiwan, but what is their way out? Even assuming they seize the island fairly easily, what is their strategy for extricating themselves from the sanctions regimes and moving forward? Very little of the developed world will open their arms to China in a meaningful timeframe. So China would be facing increased costs to achieve a position which will face increased costs.

It's completely fair to talk about cost-benefit in any policy. But it is astounding to see how quickly the critics throw that good argument aside to pursue arguments that are just plain goofy, not just partially in error but in key ways 100% backasswards.

FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

---

Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

---

Ukraine can have all the sovereignty it wants.

Some of us just don't want to invest US blood and treasure in that fight.

And Chechnya tried self determination, too. Just a little too Islamy to draw Western support.

quash said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

---

Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

---

Ukraine can have all the sovereignty it wants.

Some of us just don't want to invest US blood and treasure in that fight.

And Chechnya tried self determination, too. Just a little too Islamy to draw Western support.

---

What US blood? The only US people there are those that want to be there.

As for the other, yes. Ukraine is in a different geographical position, so yes it is in the US interests more than Chechnya was. Of course the US will support areas that benefit us more. Your point there???

FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

---

Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

---

Ukraine as we knew it no longer exists. You can thank Zelensky for that.

Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

---

Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

---

Ukraine as we knew it no longer exists. You can thank Zelensky for that.

---

So, you liked the Soviet block, Russia-puppet state Ukraine? A Ukraine aligned with the EU and NATO is a bad thing?

FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

---

Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

---

Ukraine as we knew it no longer exists. You can thank Zelensky for that.

---

So, you liked the Soviet block, Russia-puppet state Ukraine? A Ukraine aligned with the EU and NATO is a bad thing?

---

I liked neutral Ukraine, and so did the Ukrainians. We were "outvoted."

FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

---

Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

---

Ukraine as we knew it no longer exists. You can thank Zelensky for that.

---

So, you liked the Soviet block, Russia-puppet state Ukraine? A Ukraine aligned with the EU and NATO is a bad thing?

---

No, but if it means seeing huge numbers of people killed and a long drawn out war....is it worth it? Its not like the EU or the USA actually need Ukraine for anything.

This is kind of like the situation with Taiwan. Do we want to see Taiwan invaded and forcibly reincorporated back into China? No

Is it worth a massive war for a small island that only has 23 million people...when we already have S. Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, and the Philippines in our alliance/trade network?

Our geo-strategic policy when dealing with both Ukraine and Taiwan should have been trying to keep the status quo and not letting Nuland and her nutbag buddies help turn things hot.

Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

---

Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

---

Ukraine as we knew it no longer exists. You can thank Zelensky for that.

---

So, you liked the Soviet block, Russia-puppet state Ukraine? A Ukraine aligned with the EU and NATO is a bad thing?

---

I liked neutral Ukraine, and so did the Ukrainians. We were "outvoted."

---

Amen

Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

---

Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

---

Ukraine as we knew it no longer exists. You can thank Zelensky for that.

---

So, you liked the Soviet block, Russia-puppet state Ukraine? A Ukraine aligned with the EU and NATO is a bad thing?

---

No, but if it means seeing huge numbers of people killed and a long drawn out war....is it worth it? Its not like the EU or the USA actually need Ukraine for anything.

This is kind of like the situation with Taiwan. Do we want to see Taiwan invaded and forcibly reincorporated back into China? No

Is it worth a massive war for a small island that only has 23 million people...when we already have S. Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, and the Philippines in our alliance/trade network?

Our geo-strategic policy when dealing with both Ukraine and Taiwan should have been trying to keep the status quo and not letting Nuland and her nutbag buddies help turn things hot.

---

That is not ours or the EUs call. That is Ukraine's call. The Revolutionary War and War of 1812 looked pretty grim, I guess we should have just said No Mas???

FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

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Totally and complete westernization of the Ukrainian state

Ukrainian President Zelensky signed a law that will move the country’s Christmas Day holiday from early January to Dec. 25 — another way to “abandon the Russian heritage” and put distance between the two countries currently embroiled in war. https://t.co/QCPVMLKgkC

— The Hill (@thehill) July 30, 2023

---

Ukraine does not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. You and others here seem to totally disregard what the Ukraine state wants and where it wants to align in favor of Russia.

Ukraine clearly wants to align with the west and the EU. Why are people supporting forcing them to stay in Russian control? This is not Georgia or Chechnya, Ukraine is a sovereign nation.

---

Ukraine as we knew it no longer exists. You can thank Zelensky for that.

---

So, you liked the Soviet block, Russia-puppet state Ukraine? A Ukraine aligned with the EU and NATO is a bad thing?

---

No, but if it means seeing huge numbers of people killed and a long drawn out war....is it worth it? Its not like the EU or the USA actually need Ukraine for anything.

This is kind of like the situation with Taiwan. Do we want to see Taiwan invaded and forcibly reincorporated back into China? No

Is it worth a massive war for a small island that only has 23 million people...when we already have S. Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, and the Philippines in our alliance/trade network?

Our geo-strategic policy when dealing with both Ukraine and Taiwan should have been trying to keep the status quo and not letting Nuland and her nutbag buddies help turn things hot.

---

That is not ours or the EUs call. That is Ukraine's call. The Revolutionary War and War of 1812 looked pretty grim, I guess we should have just said No Mas???

---

The EU is under the military protection and basically suzerainty of the USA. So American foreign policy decisions have great effect on the policies that the EU adopts.

Obviously, many Central European countries want to turn down the heat on this war and enter into negotiations.

That does not seem to be a priority for Washington....and given the recent Senate vote our politicians also don't want to appoint a inspector general who will keep up with the money being shipped over there.


p.s.

I think you know my opinion on most secessionist movements like our Revolutionary war/War of Independence (I'm for them if the local people are for them)...but I would love to have a discussion on the War of 1812....basically we didn't really win and New England almost seceded and broke off from the USA over it.

But certainly every war that you feel you have reasons to fight does not mean in fact that it's a good idea or that it will not have terrible long term consequences. War 1812, our so-called civil war in 1861, First World War all fall in the category of pointless to outright disasters.