Redbrickbear said:
[Washington 1914:
David "Sp*****r" Goldman writes unsparingly:
America's strategic position is about to suffer a blow on par with, and perhaps more devastating than, the 1975 collapse of Vietnam. With a resident population of less than 30 million against Russia's population of 147 million, Ukraine cannot put enough men in the field to hold the line against a Russian army with comparable technology and much greater firepower. The West can't produce enough artillery shells, so Ukraine is firing hundreds of howitzer shells daily while Russia fires thousands. Both sides have lost 70,000 to 100,000 and three or four times that number wounded, but Russia has several times more people. None of the West's Wunderwaffen have made a difference, and the Russians have some nasty weapons of their own, as well as clear air superiority.
Attempting to move NATO's boundaries to the Russian-Ukraine border may have been the stupidest act in the sorry drama of American foreign policy, and President Biden's declaration on March 26, 2022 that Putin cannot be allowed to remain in power may be the emptiest boast ever by an American leader. With few exceptions, the American foreign policy establishment has wagered its credibility on the outcome of this war. Although a few establishment stalwarts like Richard Haass talk of "redefining success in Ukraine," i.e., declaring victory and going home, most of the Establishment has closed ranks. The professional penalties for doing otherwise are severe.
The atmosphere in Washington resembles Vienna in the Spring of 1914 as depicted by Robert Musil in The Man Without Qualities (1930): The reader, but none of the protagonists, knows that their world of illusions is about to come to a horrible end. The American Establishment refuses to know this, but Russia knows it, as do China, the Gulf States, and everyone else. The change in the world balance of power after the collapse of Ukraine will be so dramatic that all the players in this global game are cautious about their next step.
You know what I'm going to say next: Viktor Orban predicted all this at the start of the war, and pushed for a negotiated settlement. For this, he was denounced by the great and the good of the West as "Putin's lapdog." Now, with hundreds of thousands of Ukraine's men dead, and the Russians on the verge of winning, not one soul in a position of responsibility in the West will say, "Orban was right after all."
But he was.]. -Rod Dreher
I've long enjoyed Dreher's writing, and I'm ambivalent on Orban, but neither is a particularly good source on this.
Dreher lives and works in Hungary sponsored by Orban's government.
And nobody has been more wrong or schizophrenic on this war than Orban. BTW, it's understandable to a certain extent b/c Hungary is a proud NATO member but also has strong Russia ties and relies on it for about 85% of its gas imports.
But take a look back.
Orban repeatedly assured the world that Russia would not invade Ukraine. (NOTE: Very interesting that so many folks who claimed the invasion was clearly about NATO never predicted Russia would invade Ukraine based on NATO concerns).
The U.S. and Britain even gave Orban top secret intel showing Russia was going to invade and told him it was a certainty. Orban publicly accused the U.S. of propaganda and doubled down on its assurance. At the same time, Hungary's national tv was spewing the same Russia talking points on nazis, genocide against Russians, Ukraine provoking war, etc.
When Russia invaded, Orban assured that Russia was only interested in the far east.
Orban then had to admit the obvious, and then he was among those predicted fast and easy Russian victory.
All the while, Orban publicly supported EU payments to Ukraine and defended Zelensky.
Between then and now, Orban has shifted with the political winds, one day making strong pro-Zelensky/anti-Russian statements, the next obstructing EU support for Ukraine and praising Putin.
He also has shifted on his predictions between "Ukraine can win" to Ukraine cannot win."
First, it was easy Russian victory; then it was Ukraine does not have enough equipment; then it was Russia air superiority; then it was Russian naval superiority; then it was Ukrainian people do not support the effort; then it was Ukraine does not have enough soldiers.
Meantime, Ukraine has held its own and more.
In short, it is laughable to say Orban was right. On which day?
As for Dreher (and others) predicted doom and gloom, if Ukraine ultimately losing this war will have such wide-ranging repercussions, then how can he also argue we have no interest in Ukraine?
