[Don't Expect New Sanctions on Russia to Do Anything
A new round of economic punishments, this time for the death of Alexei Navalny, is unlikely to be more successful than previous efforts.
Although, in the wake of attacks by Iran-supported groups in the Middle East, a senior White House adviser claimed that "extreme sanctions" had throttled the Iranian energy sector, a
New York Times investigation reported that the country was still exporting billions of dollars of oil. The investigative reportcomplete with substantial photographic evidence of sanctions evasion by oil tankers coming from Iranian ports or transshipping oil to other tankers at seablows a big hole in the White House narrative of effectively ratcheting up the pressure on Iran for its proxies' attacks on U.S. military activities in the region.
Similar evasion has occurred with trying to limit Russian exports of oil in the wake of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In that case, because Russia is such a big oil producer, the aim was not to choke off all its oil exportswhich could have resulted in a sustained elevation in the world price of oil, thereby endangering the election prospects of certain Western politiciansbut to create a price ceiling under which only Russian oil could be sold. Enforcing this price ceiling regime is difficult too. Spoofing tanker locations and oil transfers at sea can also help hide the origin of Russian oil to evade the price ceiling. The
Times also found spoofing on cargoes of sanctioned Venezuelan oil exports.
And economic sanctions on oil exports are not the only ones that can be flouted. Sanctions can be unilaterally imposed or multilaterally promulgated by a cartel of countries. Unless a single country imposing the sanctions has a monopoly (is a single seller) or a monopsony (is a single buyerin which case unilateral sanctions might substantially raise or lower the price of the product, respectively, thus hurting target countryunilateral sanctions usually are merely symbolic to indicate displeasure with target by the sanctioning nation. Getting other countries to go along with sanctions to form a sanctioning cartelas the United States normally attemptscan increase the price effects but rarely can completely cut off the target from importing or exporting target products because of the evasion techniques, including those above.
Multilateral sanctions take more time to coordinate and implement than unilateral sanctions and may bite for a while, but then most target countries learn ways to substantially evade them over time. The sanctions against Russia for its invasion (
and likely the ones to be imposed for the death of dissident Alexei Navalny), and on Iran and Venezuela for behaviors the United States doesn't like, have all had some economic effect, but they cannot be evaluated for success solely by short- or long-term economic pain inflicted. They have in fact not radically changed those countries' actions.
Economic sanctions are economic punishments used to achieve political ends...]
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dont-expect-new-sanctions-on-russia-to-do-anything/