Doc Holliday said:
whiterock said:
historian said:
whiterock said:
historian said:

…corollary of which goes like this: "Russia does not now pose nor ever has posed a threat to Europe so we must allow it to reoccupy as many of its former vassal states as it feels it is entitled to in order to avoid nuclear Armageddon…."
I don't know of anyone who has made that argument. Anywhere. Ever.
that is the underlying them of the most vocal war opponents. It's always OUR fault, never Russia's.
Ok so do you push for peace or not?
Ukraine can't win with solely financial or military equipment/weaponry assistance from the West. They could win if we have western boots on the ground and air support.
If we opened up the spigots and removed all ROE limitations, Ukraine wins in the 12-24 month window. It's simple logistics. Russia does not have the resources to compete with an even partially mobilized West.
The idea that we keep them afloat only for them to die out and be forced to give up seems pointless. For Ukraine, its government, its people, its culture... there's many different outcomes, some worse some better. Some may be OK for the government, but not the people (losing a war with high casualties), while other may be OK for the people, but not the government, and so on. Certain outcomes may be acceptable to some people but disastrous to others living in different parts.
In short, there's not "one" successful outcome. There isn't a clean Ukrainian victory in which everyone wins. If nothing else, the ones that have already died and their families are already removed from true victory. Plus the generational trauma and mass fatherless homes that will lead to multiple generations of weak unguided men.
Indeed. Unconditional surrender is not the norm in warfare.
For Ukrainians to stand a chance, military history suggests that they would need a 3-to-2 advantage in manpower and considerably more firepower. Ukraine enjoyed these advantages in the first year of the war, but they now lie with Russia, and it is very difficult to see how Ukraine can recover them.
Uh, no. They've fought Russia to a standstill at a 3-1 disadvantage in manpower, with severe logistical constraints and externally imposed ROE that give Russia significant advantages. (the Russian advantage in arty fires has declined from 12-1 to 2-1.)
The question of whether to push for peace is the question of how much benefit to us is enough vs making perfect the enemy of good with a splash of concern over Eurasian stability. A peace today leaves a financially enfeebled Russia, with sharply diminished ties to its natural trading partners (the EU) that will limit short-medium term rebuilding efforts. More significantly, Russia has eaten thru many decades of built up weapons & ordnance stores. At their current fully mobilized status (which is not sustainable), it would take them 30-40 years to rebuild the inventory they had at the start of the war = it will not happen. Significance is this: Russia would go to war with Nato WITHOUT a cushion of tens of thousands of tanks, tens of thousands of arty pieces, millions of arty rounds, etc..... It would have to fight Nato on what it can produce (which would be 10% of what a fully mobilized Nato could put up). By that analysis, we've already won the war and are facing diminishing marginal returns.
Against that, we have to balance concerns about what would happen should we continue on for 12/24 months and cause Russia's political collapse.....instability around the periphery, islamist regimes in the Caucus and Trans Volga, nuclear weapons issues - use against west by Russia or Russian factions, theft/sale of them to hostile actors, etc..... If we've achieved 75% of what we needed to by stopping Russia in Ukraine, would it not be prudent to avoid such risks? Hard to say that is not the right question. Only thing to argue about is the percentage of achievement. This is the same dynamic Bush 41 faced in Iraq. Do take Saddam out? All kinds of instability to deal with. Perhaps you leave him in power, weakened, to remain a bulwark against Iran and keep the Sunni islamists at bay. If you break it, you own it......see Bush 43's experience.
And throughout all that is our own fiscal situation = we can't do it all. Perhaps we do a tactical retreat all across the board, get our house in order, and build for the future. Russia is weakened, for decades. So we have some time. And getting our fiscal situation under control strengthens us for the coming contest with China. So it's not like we're doing this in a vacuum, to just wait & see what will happen. We know what China wants to do and have to prepare to resist it.
I think there are good arguments for handing Ukraine another $100b, opening up the floodgates on ordnance and removing all limitations on how it's used, and tightening the financial screws against Russia to the max. That would force Russia to sue for peace or risk total collapse. But it would cost more than $100b and and take a year or two. And then the mid-terms happen. Trump may lose one or more of his congressional majorities. And we would not be as well prepared for China. So it's hard to reject out of hand the argument that we gotten most of what we could hope to accomplish so it's time to transition to other, arguably more important priorities.
Seems clear that is the calculation of the Trump admin.
Hard to say it's unreasonable.
One of the most important keys to being a good artist is knowing when to put down the brush.