sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
sombear said:
If Putin knows he has zero chance against NATO, why do you buy into the argument that Putin invaded Ukraine over NATO? Said another way, how would invading and taking over Ukraine somehow make Putin the favorite over NATO (or even appreciably shorten the odds)?
That itself is a strange question.
Why would any country oppose a hostile foreign military alliance being on its borders?
China knows they have no chance against the Western alliance...yet obviously they would oppose USA troops being placed in Mongolia or Burma.
The geo-strategic imperative of Moscow is to keep Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, and Kazakhstan on its side (by sweet talk or by military action)
DC seems committed to pulling those countries out of the orbit of Moscow...by coups and proxy wars if necessary.
Why Moscow wants to prevent that is obvious....why DC cares that much is the real question.
Latin America, Central & Western Europe, East Asia, the oil rich Middle east....these are all far more important areas to American prosperity and security than Belarus or Ukraine.
Well, obviously, no country wants a rival next door. The question is why Putin would invade and attempt to take over a neighbor (and lose what will probably be millions of lives and a $ trillion) when it does nothing to improve your situation relative to NATO.
It prevents NATO from putting troops in eastern Ukraine....faster striking distance into Southern Russia and Rostov-on-Don and Volgograd (old Stalingrad)....major Russian cities.
And it prevents NATO troops from ever being stationed in Crimea/Sevastopol where their Black Sea fleet is located.
So its obvious why they want a friendly government in Kyiv....one not aligned to DC
Now its a different story if it even matters much....they are so far behind the game against the USA-EU in development and military spending that they can never catch back up. But that is then a policy point...Russian leaders after Putin is dead may come to realize they are wasting money in a race they can never win.
Putin is in his 70s...he will not be around forever.