The irony in all this is that while griping about the Aegis system, Russia was continuing to assist Iran in developing their missile technology. And our radar system for the Aegis was specifically set up in Turkey because of the concern over a potential Middle East rogue attack. If we were intending it toward a Russian missile threat we wouldn't have placed it there.FLBear5630 said:It came down to the US having to prove what Russia did vs the US defending hypotheticals. Most weapon AA systems can be used offensively. Hell the Vulcan was an Anti-Air system that was used for ground support. There is no defense for "you could do it". It was an impasse, both wanted to develop next generations of weapons and wanted out...Sam Lowry said:Russia was claiming that the system was compliant. If we had taken the steps to prove or disprove that claim, we would have found out whether there was a material violation and whether they were willing to remedy it. It's possible that we would have reached an impasse, but I doubt it. All of this is what's supposed to happen before you decide to ditch the agreement.FLBear5630 said:That is the problem. The Russians actually built and deployed 9M729. They said "IF" the US put the same type of cruise missile it would be a violation. The US never deployed the offensive capable missiles. The Russian position was always based on hypotheticals, not what actually happened, as opposed to their indiscretions.Sam Lowry said:Years during which, I would argue, more could have been done to save the treaty. Part of the problem had to do with the Aegis installations in Eastern Europe, as mentioned above. Here's an article from a few years ago describing some of the issues and how they might have been resolved:FLBear5630 said:Come on, this was not a 6 month issue, it started under Obama in 2008 and Trump finally pulled out because all it did was put the US in a competitive disadvantage. That is years. There is no reason to stay in an agreement where only one side adheres.Sam Lowry said:Because it was an important agreement and there are ways of resolving those issues and verifying compliance. That's the normal approach if you want the agreement, and the overall arms control framework, to be effective.FLBear5630 said:Why stay in an agreement we do not agree with after we, and our allies, discover that the other side is not honoring. 9M729, Russia was breaking the treaty the US was honoring. Not rocket science. Russia is who scuttled the INF.Sam Lowry said:We haven't really argued the merits of the policy yet. In most of these conversations, we never do. I'm still trying to establish the basic historical facts. Then we can decide whether they're positive or negative.FLBear5630 said:You just went on about how withdrawing from the agreement within the agreed timeline was "bare minimum". You read that paragraph below and it is positive???Sam Lowry said:Who said withdrawing from the agreement was horrible?FLBear5630 said:Sam Lowry said:This is such a thorough distortion of history that I won't try to address it all. It's really remarkable, though.ATL Bear said:The trust is established by our actions and what we show as our intentions. We aren't and haven't surprised Russia with anything. We have had discussions with them repeatedly. We made great efforts to align them with the West. But they are not a transparent player, and never have been. They (really Putin) chose to reject greater cooperation. Reject democracy and freedom domestically It was a critical change Putin made when he benefited from our Mid East forays, particularly Iraq, and the price of energy escalated. He began consolidating assets and authority in Russia, and decided to be expansionist and resist the West. He threw the gauntlet down in 2007 and never looked back. The West completely miscalculated the direction he would go, and if there's blame to point West, it was Iraq that gave him the cover he needed to pursue it. Russia more than the West has been resistant to new Arms Control agreements,Sam Lowry said:Your first paragraph has some truth to it, but it doesn't change anything that Sachs is saying. It may be true that Bush didn't see Russia as an enemy, but he was surrounded by people who did. Most of them didn't even want the SORT agreement. They were the same ones pushing a unipolar world, war with Iraq, and all of that arrogant nonsense. Even if none of their ideas worked, they at least succeeded in dominating US foreign policy. Bush ultimately failed to enact the verification measures that the Russians wanted, and things went downhill from there.ATL Bear said:I'd disagree on the facts, especially since we signed two subsequent more impactful arms control agreements, and your assessment of missile defense tech, not to mention the timing. But even if you obsess over Russia, and say they weren't enough, the geopolitical reality is we went from a bipolar world of a primary threat during the Cold War, to a multipolar one that required us to adjust. Old agreements became antiquated, and we had to reposition. We can certainly argue how effective we have or haven't been in doing so, but it doesn't change the reality of the global change. Reality is we didn't view Russia as an enemy when we pulled out.Sam Lowry said:I understand why we pulled out of the ABM. Bush intended to develop a better national missile defense system. He intended to negotiate a better arms control agreement with Russia. He intended that effective arms reductions would render the ABM obsolete.ATL Bear said:Yes, all these statements are just oozing that distrust. We pulled out of ABM for a specific reason having nothing to do with Russia, and put together another agreement to further reduce nuclear arms. It's called realpolitik. You and Sachs are playing revisionist fantasies for the bad American narrative.Sam Lowry said:
Back to the SORT deflection again. Those comments had nothing to do with the ABM. Here's what Putin said about that:Quote:
December 13, 2001
The US Administration today announced that it will withdraw from the 1972 ABM Treaty in six months' time.
The Treaty does indeed allow each of the parties to withdraw from it under exceptional circumstances. The leadership of the United States has spoken about it repeatedly and this step has not come as a surprise to us. But we believe this decision to be mistaken.
As is known, Russia, like the United States and unlike other nuclear powers, has long possessed an effective system to overcome anti-missile defense. So, I can say with full confidence that the decision made by the President of the United States does not pose a threat to the national security of the Russian Federation.
At the same time our country elected not to accept the insistent proposals on the part of the US to jointly withdraw from the ABM Treaty and did everything it could to preserve the Treaty. I still think that this is a correct and valid position. Russia was guided above all by the aim of preserving and strengthening the international legal foundation in the field of disarmament and non-proliferation of mass destruction weapons.
The ABM Treaty is one of the supporting elements of the legal system in this field. That system was created through joint efforts during the past decades.
It is our conviction that the development of the situation in the present world dictates a certain logic of actions.
Now that the world has been confronted with new threats one cannot allow a legal vacuum to be formed in the sphere of strategic stability. One should not undermine the regimes of non-proliferation of mass destruction weapons.
I believe that the present level of bilateral relations between the Russian Federation and the US should not only be preserved but should be used for working out a new framework of strategic relations as soon as possible.
Along with the problem of anti-missile defense a particularly important task under these conditions is putting a legal seal on the achieved agreements on further radical, irreversible and verifiable cuts of strategic offensive weapons, in our opinion to the level of 1,500-2,200 nuclear warheads for each side.
In conclusion I would like to note that Russia will continue to adhere firmly to its course in world affairs aimed at strengthening strategic stability and international security.
I don't even think you understand why ABM was even signed and its deterrent purpose. It's a negative action deterrent, with the outdated concept that if you put up missile defense systems, the other side would be motivated to increase arms to overwhelm it. That becomes unnecessary when you focus on reducing overall arms count, which we weren't keen on in 1972, but late in USSR decline became part of the structure.
The problem is that none of that happened. Instead we triggered a new arms race, and our missile defense is just as ineffective as it was before.
Sachs is also correct that our systems in Eastern Europe are a threat to Russia. They were originally designed to fire Tomahawk missiles. They can be modified for offensive purposes relatively easily, and they are one of our most commonly used systems in that capacity. If they are ever used offensively, Russia will have next to no notice and no way of knowing for certain whether they contain nuclear warheads. Our response to their concerns is "trust us." Meanwhile we're expanding NATO, bombing Yugoslavia, funding color revolutions, etc.
Maybe you think all of this is a good idea. That isn't the point. The point is that it has affected US/Russia relations in the most serious of ways. That is beyond dispute.
And Russia doesn't need to trust us. Our actions are a clear indicator of our intentions. The problem is Putin, and maybe you and Sachs, does not want more Western aligned countries that can function freer and more beneficially economically. He sees the threat to Russia's influence and spins it as a military one to escalate its perceived danger. But it isn't. It's the only way Russia can leverage its one primary strength to coerce these countries and the world into not proceeding. Putin longs for the days of perceived equal import on the global stage that the Soviet Union used to portray. But they've been lapped by the U.S. as well as China, and outside of nuclear arsenal a number of European nations also.
You and Sachs are pushing a pro-Putin agenda, I won't even call it pro Russia because even Medvedev tried something different and was thwarted by him. The one factor that is always absent from these conversations is what the actual threat to Russia is, when in reality it is only what nefarious act it might prevent Russia from doing, or the grip they have over a country. You can say that these actions impacted US/Russia relations, which I agree, but the question based upon global realities is, why shouldn't they have been?
It would be nice for the Russian people to get a fresh perspective for their country after 25 years of a clinching fist over them instead of being forced to be stuck in the past. (No this isn't a veiled regime change threat, just an actual hope for the Russian people)
And the color revolution lie has become a tired trope, but I know the grind will continue.
To your question why our relations with Russia shouldn't have been damaged in this way, the answer is that a return to the Cold War, the arms race, and mutually assured destruction is good for no one. That doesn't mean we should stop at nothing to maintain friendship, but if you don't at least see why these things are to be avoided then I don't know what to tell you.
It was the US and Europe, not Russia, who were obsessed with "aligning" every country on one side or the other. We agreed to neutrality for Ukraine. Ukrainians wanted economic ties with both Russia and the West, to the benefit of all parties -- not just Western banks and oligarchs. It was we who spun an economic rivalry into a military crisis, solely for our own perceived benefit, not Ukraine's.
The nature of the threat to Russia has been explained ad nauseam. I explained the specific threat from our missile installations just now. The idea that Russia doesn't need to trust us is wildly out of touch with any sort of diplomatic reality. Anyone with potentially nuclear-capable missiles on their border is going to be very concerned about trust. We certainly would be. But you know this. You just can't acknowledge any fact that doesn't make America look like the knight in shining armor.
The ABM, color revolutions, Kosovo, etc. have been spun into a tale to cover Russia's actions. The U.S. isn't and doesn't need to be a Knight in shining armor to see that Russia (Putin) is a bad actor.
A Normally there would have been serious efforts to resolve any disputes before such a thing was even contemplated. In our case none of that happened.
You seem to defend any act they do as a reaction to the US, not their fault, including invading a Nation.
Yet, you just argued that the US honoring the arms agreement and giving the agreed upon notice is horrible. Not contemplated or some nonsense.
ATL Bear is correct, the US had gone above and beyond to assist Russia align more west. After the fall of the USSR I doubt Putin would have been so even handed and fair toward the US. At least they have no history of it when in a position of strength. But that is the US fault too, right?
"to the topic of arms control, Russia absolutely was surprised and shocked by our sudden withdrawal from the treaties, especially the INF. That we gave bare minimum notice as required by the agreements doesn't change that; in fact it only emphasizes the point."
This is an example of how you, ATL, and others do it the other way around. First you decide what's positive for the US, then you choose which facts to accept. If I say "the US is bordered to the south by Mexico," your brains hear "the US is evil." You demand links, maps, expert testimony, etc., and after all that you remain firmly in denial.
The point is simply that Russia was surprised and reacted badly to our withdrawal from the treaties. This is an obvious fact, which no one who knows anything about it would deny. We could have mitigated the damage in any number of ways, for example, by not placing missiles in Romania and Poland. There was no real need for them, since even ATL admits our decision to withdraw wasn't a reaction to any Russian threat. But that's another discussion.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-blame-game-begins-over-the-inf-treatys-demise-and-washington-is-losing/
Good discussion here, thanks.