2026 Mid-Term Elections

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boognish_bear
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7:57p, 9/18/26
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8:01p, 9/18/26
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whiterock
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In reply to Osodecentx • 6:18a, 9/19/26
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
The case for why the anticipated blue wave will not happen.



It's a referendum on Trump

That's what the Democrats will try to make it. Republicans will try to make it a choice between Trump and even worse Democrats. Nothing new about a "choice election." Known dynamic. Every incumbent has that challenge. Clinton did. Bush 43 did. Obama did. And each of them in their time, in similar popularity range as Trump, won re-election by making the challenger look scarier than the incumbent.

The dynamic to watch is how the numbers move from here. If the election were held today, Dems take the house by 15 seats and the Senate is a tossup. But they've blown thru most of their money. (Effectively, to the extent the polling is accurate). But now the GOP is starting to spend. GIven the quite large cash advantage GOP has, they're going to tighten a lot of these races. They should be able to save most of the incumbents who might appear to be in trouble. Should retain the Senate. Have a 40% chance or better to retain the house.

Lots & lots of people in the blue side of the middle are seeing it like I'm seeing it. IT's closer than people think. Redistricting has reduced the number of true swing seats in the House. So the odds of a 50 seat wave are vanishingly small. Somewhat more likely to have a small and indecisive change.

I don't think the public angst over politics is mostly angst over Trump. It's over incumbents. Voters are just as mad at Democrats as they are at Republicans. That's why we see horse-race statewide campaigns popping up in blue states: NH Senate, MN Senate, OR Gov, etc... Voters are pissed at the lot of 'em. And "uniparty" is just a GOP complaint anymore. It's a majority of the spectrum. It's just a bad year to be an incumbent.

I think the most likely post mortem on this cycle will be that the Dems fumbled a chance for big success.

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whiterock
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6:18a, 9/19/26
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Osodecentx
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In reply to whiterock • 8:34a, 9/19/26
whiterock said:
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
The case for why the anticipated blue wave will not happen.



It's a referendum on Trump

That's what the Democrats will try to make it. Republicans will try to make it a choice between Trump and even worse Democrats. Nothing new about a "choice election." Known dynamic. Every incumbent has that challenge. Clinton did. Bush 43 did. Obama did. And each of them in their time, in similar popularity range as Trump, won re-election by making the challenger look scarier than the incumbent.

The dynamic to watch is how the numbers move from here. If the election were held today, Dems take the house by 15 seats and the Senate is a tossup. But they've blown thru most of their money. (Effectively, to the extent the polling is accurate). But now the GOP is starting to spend. GIven the quite large cash advantage GOP has, they're going to tighten a lot of these races. They should be able to save most of the incumbents who might appear to be in trouble. Should retain the Senate. Have a 40% chance or better to retain the house.

Lots & lots of people in the blue side of the middle are seeing it like I'm seeing it. IT's closer than people think. Redistricting has reduced the number of true swing seats in the House. So the odds of a 50 seat wave are vanishingly small. Somewhat more likely to have a small and indecisive change.

I don't think the public angst over politics is mostly angst over Trump. It's over incumbents. Voters are just as mad at Democrats as they are at Republicans. That's why we see horse-race statewide campaigns popping up in blue states: NH Senate, MN Senate, OR Gov, etc... Voters are pissed at the lot of 'em. And "uniparty" is just a GOP complaint anymore. It's a majority of the spectrum. It's just a bad year to be an incumbent.

I think the most likely post mortem on this cycle will be that the Dems fumbled a chance for big success.



September 17, 2026 3:48 PM

Polls after Labor Day show Hinojosa leading Abbott and Talarico leading or tied with Paxton
In the poll from ReconMR/Siena: US Senate: Talarico leading Paxton 49 to 43; Gov: Hinojosa leading Abbott 49 to 45. In the Emerson poll Talarico leads Paxton 47 to 46

The ReconMR/Siena poll is here. The Emerson/Nexstar poll

https://www.quorumreport.com/
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boognish_bear
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2:12p, 9/19/26
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historian
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2:18p, 9/19/26
Lots of wishful thinking on the Left. None of their crazies is winning a statewide race in Texas in 2026.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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boognish_bear
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In reply to historian • 2:23p, 9/19/26
historian said:
Lots of wishful thinking on the Left. None of their crazies is winning a statewide race in Texas in 2026.


You feel confident Paxton will win?
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boognish_bear
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2:43p, 9/19/26
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fubar
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4:09p, 9/19/26
historian and whiterock reassuring the faithful ...

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historian
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In reply to boognish_bear • 4:48p, 9/19/26
I think so, unless Texans slow the fascists to con them into staying home.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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TWD 1974
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In reply to historian • 7:51p, 9/19/26
historian said:
I think so, unless Texans slow the fascists to con them into staying home.

I think we've found the AI Killswitch. Before the machines go full terminator, ask AI to explain that sentence.
“No eye has seen, no ear has heard, and no mind has imagined what God has prepared for those who love Him.” 1 Corinthians 2:9
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whiterock
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In reply to Osodecentx • 12:44p, 9/21/26
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
The case for why the anticipated blue wave will not happen.



It's a referendum on Trump

That's what the Democrats will try to make it. Republicans will try to make it a choice between Trump and even worse Democrats. Nothing new about a "choice election." Known dynamic. Every incumbent has that challenge. Clinton did. Bush 43 did. Obama did. And each of them in their time, in similar popularity range as Trump, won re-election by making the challenger look scarier than the incumbent.

The dynamic to watch is how the numbers move from here. If the election were held today, Dems take the house by 15 seats and the Senate is a tossup. But they've blown thru most of their money. (Effectively, to the extent the polling is accurate). But now the GOP is starting to spend. GIven the quite large cash advantage GOP has, they're going to tighten a lot of these races. They should be able to save most of the incumbents who might appear to be in trouble. Should retain the Senate. Have a 40% chance or better to retain the house.

Lots & lots of people in the blue side of the middle are seeing it like I'm seeing it. IT's closer than people think. Redistricting has reduced the number of true swing seats in the House. So the odds of a 50 seat wave are vanishingly small. Somewhat more likely to have a small and indecisive change.

I don't think the public angst over politics is mostly angst over Trump. It's over incumbents. Voters are just as mad at Democrats as they are at Republicans. That's why we see horse-race statewide campaigns popping up in blue states: NH Senate, MN Senate, OR Gov, etc... Voters are pissed at the lot of 'em. And "uniparty" is just a GOP complaint anymore. It's a majority of the spectrum. It's just a bad year to be an incumbent.

I think the most likely post mortem on this cycle will be that the Dems fumbled a chance for big success.



September 17, 2026 3:48 PM

Polls after Labor Day show Hinojosa leading Abbott and Talarico leading or tied with Paxton
In the poll from ReconMR/Siena: US Senate: Talarico leading Paxton 49 to 43; Gov: Hinojosa leading Abbott 49 to 45. In the Emerson poll Talarico leads Paxton 47 to 46

The ReconMR/Siena poll is here. The Emerson/Nexstar poll

https://www.quorumreport.com/

Ok, then…go ahead and place a bet at Polymarket.
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whiterock
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12:45p, 9/21/26
The base is rock solid.

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Osodecentx
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In reply to whiterock • 1:18p, 9/21/26
whiterock said:
The base is rock solid.



What about independents & moderate Republicans?
Won't you need more than the base to win an election in November?
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Waco1947
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In reply to boognish_bear • 1:35p, 9/21/26
boognish_bear said:

In other words, he gets to complain because he defines "honesty" as whatever he personally believes. Until he gives us a real standard for what is honest and what isn't, his argument is completely circular: if he agrees with it, it's honest; if he doesn't, it's a hoax.. So apparently his new gold standard for truth is simply, "I believe it, therefore it's true." How convenient. He isn't actually demonstrating that anyone is lyinghe's just putting a fancy label on the fact that he disagrees
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Osodecentx
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In reply to whiterock • 1:53p, 9/21/26
whiterock said:
The base is rock solid.


Trump Targets the Wrong Base
It's the 'traditional Republicans' he needs to get to the polls, not MAGA enthusiasts.
By
Kimberley A. Strassel
Sept. 10, 2026
"Know your audience," goes the old line, a maxim to maximize a speaker's effectiveness. President Trump opened the GOP's midterm convention Wednesday by speaking for nearly two hours to all the wrong people.
Excitement in Dallas's American Airlines Center was certainly huge. Thousands of loyal supporters donned Trump hats and buttons and pins, waved signs and roared approval throughout the president's address. Fans traveled hundreds of miles and waited in line for hours, considering "Trump Live" the fulfillment of a bucket list.
This is the GOP's midterm strategy: Triple down on the MAGA base. The impulse stems from polls showing Republicans suffering from a big enthusiasm gap compared with Democrats. The GOP has internalized the belief that its problem is MAGA loyalists who tune out when Mr. Trump isn't the main event. So they are running this president as if he's on the ballot, while the president runs entirely to his most loyal crowd.
That's an incredibly risky midterm bet, based on a potentially fatal misreading of the data.
"Bases" are sprawling things, and today's Republican version can be broadly separated between MAGA enthusiastsdeeply loyal to Mr. Trumpand more-traditional Republicans. Pollster Scott Rasmussen of RMG Research makes that distinction by asking voters the following question: If you had to choose between four candidates of equal character and competence, would you prefer someone who advocated: A) Trump-like policies, B) traditional Republican policies, C) traditional Democratic policies, or D) policies like those of Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?
The key point coming out of RMG's most recent polling on that question? That MAGA basethose who answered Ais already fired up. The August numbers show that more than 50% of them are "very enthusiastic" about voting. "Every bit of data we have show the Trump group is just as excited as Democrats," Mr. Rasmussen says. "This base remains ready to crawl across glass for this guy."
No surprise. Since January 2025, Washington has been the Trump show, with the president leading every headline. He's also been exclusively speaking to the MAGA crowd most of this year. It explains the president's obsession with topics that make GOP strategists want to pull their hair out. Who loves listening to the president wax on about an "antiweaponization fund"? The MAGA crowd. Who is most interested in cage matches at the White House? MAGA. Want to know who thrills to hearing Mr. Trump rename Lake Ontario? (Mr. Rasmussen has data on that one. Nearly 70% of the Trump base favors it. The rest of the country, 28%.)
It's everyone else in the GOP "base" (and independents) who should concern the GOP, especially because that category has grown the past 18 months, while the MAGA crowd has shrunk. At the time of Mr. Trump's 2025 inauguration, 38% of registered voters said they favored "Trump-like policies"compared with 14% who preferred traditional GOP policies and about 20% for each Democratic category. Those choosing MAGA have since dropped 10 points. But they haven't dropped out, waiting to be re-enthused. The data show that most have migrated back into the category of voters who prefer a more "traditional" Republican approach. That number is up 7 points, at 21%. (The Democratic figures have barely budged.)
Of the now much larger category of traditional Republicans, a mere 25% are "very enthusiastic" to go vote. That is the GOP's turnout problem, not the crowds in Dallas.
Parties traditionally rely on primaries to engage dedicated voters, then pivot in the fall to the rest of the foldthose less tuned in, more moderate, more skeptical of party ideology. These are the people Republicans need and are studiously ignoring. Why? The Trump inner circle has spent too many months reinforcing the notion that the polls are lying, while simultaneously jeering the RINOs and Reagan zombies they actually need. And good luck with that. RMG's most recent polling shows that only 11% of voters even knew the GOP was having a midterm convention this week.
It isn't too late for Mr. Trump and the GOP to speak more widely. Polls show that the Democratic advantage on the congressional generic ballot and on specific issues is soft by comparison with past midterms. The broader electorate doesn't feel Republicans have delivered. But they also aren't jazzed by democratic socialists. So there is merit to the GOP's new strategy of highlighting the choice voters facebetween GOP growth policies and left-wing lunacy.
But more is needed to inspire traditional Republicans to go vote, and the solution is almost painfully obvious. Republicans need to talk about what they are going to do nextspecifically how they are going to bring down prices. (No, a $5,000 Trump "dividend" isn't the answer.) If the GOP really wants its convention to be a success, it'll come out of the event with a forward-looking agenda.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-targets-the-wrong-base-d5886214?mod=author_content_page_1_pos_3

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Frank Galvin
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In reply to whiterock • 3:59p, 9/21/26
whiterock said:
The base is rock solid.


For the Watching Him on Fifth Avenue Crowd, the question isn't preference, it is participation.
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boognish_bear
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9:10p, 9/21/26
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11:29p, 9/21/26
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3:50a, 9/22/26
Osodecentx
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3:51a, 9/22/26
George W. Bush and Cornyn Leave Out Paxton as They Raise Cash for Senate Candidates
The former president and Texas senator are headlining a fund-raiser in Dallas for top Republican Senate candidates. Not included: Ken Paxton, the nominee in their own state.
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historian
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In reply to boognish_bear • 8:50a, 9/22/26
Unfortunately, there is some truth to that statement. The best response is to reform the system back to real capitalism. It is most definitely not to go all in with the evils of socialism or support for a radical Islamofascist whose buddy is Hasan Piker. It's safe to assume that he agrees with most of what Piker says and that is truly evil.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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whiterock
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3:32p, 9/22/26
Great number for GOP

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boognish_bear
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4:50p, 9/22/26
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5:48p, 9/22/26
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Osodecentx
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In reply to boognish_bear • 7:48p, 9/22/26
boognish_bear said:


Total bull****
Trump pissed away 2 senate seats in Arizona & 2 in Georgia , but wants to blame Thune?
He's giving one away in N Carolina
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boognish_bear
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9:06p, 9/22/26
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whiterock
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In reply to Osodecentx • 8:54a, 9/23/26
Osodecentx said:
boognish_bear said:


Total bull****
Trump pissed away 2 senate seats in Arizona & 2 in Georgia , but wants to blame Thune?
He's giving one away in N Carolina

Total neverTrumper bull***** Thune is the Senate majority leader. He does have a majority. That majority is within historical range for either party. It's his job to get **** passed. The Save Act has supermajority public support. Absolute majority in almost every demographic polled.

Nothing demoralizes political coalition more than not being able to get shot done.
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whiterock
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8:55a, 9/23/26
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whiterock
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8:56a, 9/23/26
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J.R.
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In reply to Osodecentx • 10:23a, 9/23/26
Osodecentx said:
boognish_bear said:


Total bull****
Trump pissed away 2 senate seats in Arizona & 2 in Georgia , but wants to blame Thune?
He's giving one away in N Carolina

He put Texas in play. Now that is saying something
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BUDOS
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In reply to J.R. • 11:21a, 9/23/26
Why are we Republicans blaming Trump? Was it not us who put him in office, twice? Agreed, perhaps ,once again, many of us had to choose between two evils. So, maybe things might have been worse?
Maybe it's time for another more traditional Conservative Party.
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historian
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12:17p, 9/23/26
Two articles on Abdul:

Kamala decides to do the GOP a favor by campaigning for Democrats

https://notthebee.com/article/kamala-is-doing-the-gop-a-favor-by-campaigning-for-democrats

"Black birthing people"?? LOL

Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed says "cars are the modern-day cigarette"

https://notthebee.com/article/michigan-democrat-abdul-el-sayed-says-cars-are-the-modern-day-cigarette

Michigan voters should be highly motivated to vote for his opponent Mike Rogers.

Sums him up well:

“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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whiterock
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1:37p, 9/23/26
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