Cook typically overstates Dem support, but this seems reasonable. (Likely leading to a 6-8 seat Dem house.

New 2026 Cook Political Report House Ratings

Total:
🔴 Republicans: 209 (+7)
🔵 Democrats: 208 (-9)
🟡 Tossup: 18 (+2)

(+/- vs pre VA,TN,FL Redistricting Update) https://t.co/18LlGXowMo pic.twitter.com/mA867KG7nc

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) May 10, 2026

Interesting in that it would seem reasonable that the left is also attempting to spread its own ideology and propaganda in similar fashion, yes?

MAGA insider blows lid off a $120 million right-wing racket https://l.smartnews.com/p-7HAK33Ko/3lcokm

JUST IN: Republicans surge past Democrats in Senate midterm odds, projected to remain in power. pic.twitter.com/aIB0b90ehq

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 11, 2026

One of the accurate ones, right? This one counts?

Getting comical. Start hammering those keys, maybe find an old HS Stats book next to your Econ books? Stats? Think of the formulas you can show us!

FLBear5630 said:

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One of the accurate ones, right? This one counts?

Getting comical. Start hammering those keys, maybe find an old HS Stats book next to your Econ books? Stats? Think of the formulas you can show us!

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You are not even bothering to read the material closely enough to understand it. That post wasn't about a poll. It was about the betting odds = public perception. And yes , betting odds are meaningful benchmarks to consider.

Here's some polling analysis from a neverTrump network. It's a very solid take.

The new CNN poll should serve as a big time reality check for Dems.

Yes, Trump isn't liked on the economy... but neither are the Dems.

Dems' lead on the generic House ballot isn't growing.

With redistricting, the race for House control is well within the margin of error. pic.twitter.com/ewJ6w1W1AT

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) May 12, 2026

As of this post on May 12th, it's still far enough out that all of these polls are meaningless. From the GOP standpoint, the Iran/Hormuz situation needs to be resolved soon, but otherwise there's still a lot of time for things to swing either way.

Ok,makes sense.

"Its the economy, stupid". (Bill Clinton)

The increase of inflation spurred on by the higher oil prices will have an effect of the mid-term elections.

Some Republican politicians just have an urge to jump from high places, and we should give them a helping hand.

There’s a segment of the GOP political class who will simply never learn because their entire goal in politics is to conserve progressivism. https://t.co/wnilbIlten

— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) May 12, 2026

🚨JAW-DROPPING POLL: Republicans lead by 4% in the race for governor in deep-blue Oregon.

Oregon - 2026 Governor
🟥Chris Dudley 48% (+4)
🟦Tina Kotek* 44%

If Dudley wins the Republican primary, polls suggest that Kotek—who is deeply unpopular—is finished.

Hoffman/Dudley | May… pic.twitter.com/nSxiNqqAp0

— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) May 16, 2026

Then why is @TMZ so woke?! https://t.co/GAqc6qXtIS

— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) May 16, 2026

I hope these come to pass.

I am a big fan of Republican Governors, Republican House and Dem Senate. I do NOT want a clean sweep. Too much one direction.

Definitely agree with the concept.
The Founding Fathers deliberately designed the U.S. Constitution to create friction. They believed that pitting the branches of government against one another through a system of "checks and balances" was the only way to prevent tyranny and protect individual liberties.

Currently it doesn't seem to be working like it should.

Interesting how quickly our country's leaders and especially those with the biggest bullhorn can influence so many; but then maybe not.

Deeply divided America is united on one thing:
keep Trump admin out of elections
https://l.smartnews.com/p-7KGAUp0I/jGiiuX

BUDOS said:

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Definitely agree with the concept.
The Founding Fathers deliberately designed the U.S. Constitution to create friction. They believed that pitting the branches of government against one another through a system of "checks and balances" was the only way to prevent tyranny and protect individual liberties.

Currently it doesn't seem to be working like it should.

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Seems to me that's because politicians are like organized crime, in that they study their opposition and plan counters. Activist judges, special-interest voting blocs and media which long ago abandoned objectivity in reporting often cooperate to weaken or block watchdogs, whistleblowers and reform.

People don't refer to the Uniparty as a joke.

I don't do it either way, and I am neither an optimist nor a fatalist.

FLBear5630 said:

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I hope these come to pass.

I am a big fan of Republican Governors, Republican House and Dem Senate. I do NOT want a clean sweep. Too much one direction.

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exactly what part of the other direction" do you llke?

This does not include approx $300m Trump campaign cash on hand.

April cash-on-hand minus debts:

🔴 RNC: $124M
🔵 DNC: $-3M

Happy birthday @JamesBlairUSA !

— Tim Saler (@salerGT) May 21, 2026

A brutal chart from the DNC autopsy pic.twitter.com/fwfwREmxdH

— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) May 21, 2026

whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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I hope these come to pass.

I am a big fan of Republican Governors, Republican House and Dem Senate. I do NOT want a clean sweep. Too much one direction.

---

exactly what part of the other direction" do you llke?

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Direction?

I like the checks and balances built in to the system. The system is set up to reist change. For that to happen, you need conflicting Parties. I like Republican Governors because they get things done. Rep House to watch the purse strings (I know, yeah right!) and Dem Senate because they are more interested in ensuring that people get taken care of and we don't piss off our allies.

Simple as that.

FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

I hope these come to pass.

I am a big fan of Republican Governors, Republican House and Dem Senate. I do NOT want a clean sweep. Too much one direction.

---

exactly what part of the other direction" do you llke?

---

Direction?

I like the checks and balances built in to the system. The system is set up to reist change. For that to happen, you need conflicting Parties. I like Republican Governors because they get things done. Rep House to watch the purse strings (I know, yeah right!) and Dem Senate because they are more interested in ensuring that people get taken care of and we don't piss off our allies.

Simple as that.

---

and THAT's how you get federal government defending M*****lesque butchery of troubled children

Not terribly worried about Talarico.....

This is a brutal ad against Talarico.

Brutal. pic.twitter.com/fzKOf1YNtP

— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) May 22, 2026

whiterock said:

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JUST IN: Republicans surge past Democrats in Senate midterm odds, projected to remain in power. pic.twitter.com/aIB0b90ehq

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 11, 2026

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Polymarket and Kalshi are betting markets, not polls. They are subject to manipulation by bets placed to influence numbers. Import to remember that.

Realitybites said:

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whiterock said:

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JUST IN: Republicans surge past Democrats in Senate midterm odds, projected to remain in power. pic.twitter.com/aIB0b90ehq

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 11, 2026

---

Polymarket and Kalshi are betting markets, not polls. They are subject to manipulation by bets placed to influence numbers. Import to remember that.

---

True. Also true that they are more accurate than many of the polling units. Not so much in the margins but winner/loser. And the polling units have their bias issues, too, particularly the worst ones.

Which Party Do You Think Will Win The House/Senate

House: 🔴 R+3
Senate: 🔴 R+7

Economist/YouGov poll | 5/22-5/26 pic.twitter.com/1tfzr4Nc7X

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) May 27, 2026

Cook usually understates GOP support.

Cook Political Report House Ratings 2018 vs 2026

2018:
🔵 Democrats: 210
🔴 Republicans: 195
🟡 Tossup: 30

2026:
🔴 Republicans: 210 (+15)
🔵 Democrats: 207 (-3)
🟡 Tossup: 18 (-12) pic.twitter.com/hPVtKohFNG

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) May 28, 2026

2026 House Forecast Ratings

Crystal Ball:
🔴 Republicans: 211
🔵 Democrats: 208
🟡 Tossup: 16

Cook Political Report:
🔴 Republicans: 210
🔵 Democrats: 207
🟡 Tossup: 18

Inside Elections:
🔴 Republicans: 215
🔵 Democrats: 206
🟡 Tossup: 14 pic.twitter.com/Et4p7Q4POD

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) May 28, 2026

📊 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot

Registered voters
🟦 Democrats: 51% [+1]
🟥 Republicans: 49% [-1]
—
LIKELY Voters
🟦 Democrats: 52% [+2]
🟥 Republicans: 48% [-2]

Harvard/Harris | 5/29/-31https://t.co/lrKj8jPeiZ pic.twitter.com/a0LRvOufjW

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 2, 2026

a 1-point generic ballot lead for Democrats = GOP controlled House & Senate. Historically, Dems need a +4 lead to take the House by a narrow margin. Current range in most generic ballot polls is somewhere between +1 and +8 Dems. So the average is in tossup territory.

Kind of amazing for the GOP to be in competitive position, given Presidential approval numbers and the economic turmoil.

📊 Generic Ballot by Marquette (A)

Registered voters
🟦 Democrats: 46% (-2)
🟥 Republicans: 45% (+1)

Certain to vote
🟦 Democrats: 49% (-4)
🟥 Republicans: 48% (+5)

(+/- vs April) | 857 RV | 576 LVhttps://t.co/B40PKxlWqF pic.twitter.com/ZTg3NI7zo7

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 3, 2026

interesting trend in the Marquette poll.

Generic Ballot polling trend by Marquette among likely voters (certain to vote)

• Dec. 2025: Democrats +5

• Jan. 2026: Democrats +7

• Apr. 2026: Democrats +10

• May 2026: Democrats +1

Marquette (A) | 576 LV https://t.co/8I379cCWnp pic.twitter.com/me5IRvFQVv

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 3, 2026

MARQUETE POLL: Which party is better, across issues? (net)

🟥 Crime: R+22
🟥 Border Security/Immigration: R+19
🟥 National Defence: R+15
🟥 Federal Deficit: R+4
🟥 Taxes: R+2
——
🟦 Economy: D+3
🟦 Inflation: D+7
🟦 Medicare: D+16
🟦 Healthcare: D+20 https://t.co/8I379cCWnp pic.twitter.com/qRN0zKH1b9

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 3, 2026