President Trump announces military strikes on Iran: Operation Epic Fury

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Realitybites
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In reply to whiterock • 9:09a
Quote:
China has just lost 30% of its oil supply (from Venezuela and Iran)


This is incorrect.

The two countries together account for around 18% of the Chinese oil supply. Inconvenient? Yes.

Catastrophic? Hardly, given that it can be easily recovered by increased Russian exports.
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KaiBear
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In reply to J.R. • 9:21a
J.R. said:
KaiBear said:
Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:
Congrats to all trump supporters. He will do anything to distract his pedophilia..


What proof do you possess that Trump is playing around in Thailand ?

I saw in on Khoa San Road last night. He had on his usual ill fitting suit with a red tie. "red tie" makes sense being down there.

Did Trump ask for your autograph ?
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Realitybites
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9:47a
Monday update:

  • Younger, reportedly more 'hardline' Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.
  • Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!
  • Threat of whole regional war ongoing: Turkey says second Iranian ballistic missile shot down by NATO defenses in airspace, but then NATO quickly contradicts - saying no 2nd missile was intercepted.
  • Nation-building, nation-smashing, divergent US-Israeli aims? More from Trump "...will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before." But US officials distance themselves from big weekend attacks on Iranian oil.
  • Iran shuts door on ceasefire talk possibility, accuses US of seeking 'partition': as several countries have begun mediation efforts; however Foreign Ministry says: "While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response."
  • CENTCOM confirms 8th US troop death; More Iranian missile/drone hits on Gulf sites, IDF ground operations expand inside Lebanon
Vix @ 30, Dow down another 1%+. Centcom has confirmed the 8th US soldier KIA. Not sure what happened to #7, perhaps they are losing count.
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The_barBEARian
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In reply to Realitybites • 9:54a
Realitybites said:
Monday update:

  • Younger, reportedly more 'hardline' Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.
  • Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!
  • Threat of whole regional war ongoing: Turkey says second Iranian ballistic missile shot down by NATO defenses in airspace, but then NATO quickly contradicts - saying no 2nd missile was intercepted.
  • Nation-building, nation-smashing, divergent US-Israeli aims? More from Trump "...will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before." But US officials distance themselves from big weekend attacks on Iranian oil.
  • Iran shuts door on ceasefire talk possibility, accuses US of seeking 'partition': as several countries have begun mediation efforts; however Foreign Ministry says: "While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response."
  • CENTCOM confirms 8th US troop death; More Iranian missile/drone hits on Gulf sites, IDF ground operations expand inside Lebanon
Vix @ 30, Dow down another 1%+. Centcom has confirmed the 8th US soldier KIA. Not sure what happened to #7, perhaps they are losing count.


I read #7 died in Saudi Arabia but those were the only details given.
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Realitybites
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9:57a
Might as well sit back and watch the last ride of the Boomers.

Woodstock and an invasion of Iran that destroys our economy. Perfect bookends for that generation.
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boognish_bear
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10:06a
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10:09a
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boognish_bear
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10:12a
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boognish_bear
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10:13a
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Jack Bauer
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10:24a
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boognish_bear
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11:08a
So… I guess regime change is back off the table? No mention of nuclear. Maybe it's understood it's already been handled?

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KaiBear
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In reply to boognish_bear • 11:11a
boognish_bear said:

Seems unlikely.

Even Iran would not be that stupid.
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KaiBear
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 11:13a
Jack Bauer said:

Graham is the dumbest senator since Huey Long.

Full on idiot.
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ATL Bear
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In reply to whiterock • 11:47a
whiterock said:
Sam Lowry said:
ATL Bear said:
One side issue is now that prices are so much higher, Russia is able to sell at a much higher price even after deep discounts. With the recent loosening of restrictions on them, they're likely to fortify their efforts against Ukraine, increase their market share, and end up handing China a strategic advantage in the interim.

Not to mention helping to fortify Iran's efforts against us. 5-D chess FTW.

LOL. You two.....

China has just lost 30% of its oil supply (from Venezuela and Iran) and it has no significant pipelines to Russia, which is losing its shadow fleet to Ukrainian strikes and US Navy interdiction.

The biggest loser of all in what Trump has done the last 60 days is China. He's engineered a catastrophic reordering of their strategic position - to their detriment. Should they decide to invade Taiwan, they now have existential vulnerability to sanctions with few options to overcome them.


China doesn't/didn't get 30% of its supply from Iran and Venezuela. They have about that reliance on Gulf state energy including LNG. But they had already shifted its sources beyond what Venezuela and Iran combined were providing to China. They began making that shift after the original nuclear facility strikes, most of it to Russia but the remainder to Saudi Arabia. They also doubled down on their strategic reserves setting aside nearly 1.4 billion barrels of oil, and have harbored 10s of millions of barrels as further reserves.

Russia already has a pipeline deploying to China with a second one in the works, so I'm not sure where you're getting your facts. China is also wearing out the Kosmino port which is a short ship transit, and just got deliveries via the new Artic route. It's like you think China, a country known for long term planning and strategy didn't counter move or has contingencies. They are not reactionaries like we practice here. Maybe we've clipped some access to black market oil, but Russia is rapidly picking up the slack. With prices headed where they are, both parties are incentivized accordingly.
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boognish_bear
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12:06p
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boognish_bear
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12:28p
Have we some how galvanized support for their regime even more?

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boognish_bear
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12:54p
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Oldbear83
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In reply to KaiBear • 12:57p
Graham is useless, but it seems you forgot Schumer.
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boognish_bear
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1:43p
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Realitybites
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In reply to boognish_bear • 2:54p
boognish_bear said:
Have we some how galvanized support for their regime even more?


The problem with attacking a real legacy country is that foreign invasion tends to galvanize public opinion against whoever is doing the attacking.

Whatever issues existed during the Biden years, if the Chinese military began bombing California, you'd see the same thing here.
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Realitybites
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In reply to KaiBear • 2:56p
KaiBear said:
boognish_bear said:

Seems unlikely.

Even Iran would not be that stupid.

Israeli false flag to try and trigger NATO involvement?
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KaiBear
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In reply to Realitybites • 3:44p
Realitybites said:
KaiBear said:
boognish_bear said:

Seems unlikely.

Even Iran would not be that stupid.

Israeli false flag to try and trigger NATO involvement?


Possibly
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Realitybites
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3:52p
Meanwhile, markets are recovering as Trump is saying the war is basically over.

So has Iran agreed to reopen the straits of Hormuz?
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boognish_bear
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In reply to Realitybites • 3:56p
Realitybites said:
boognish_bear said:
Have we some how galvanized support for their regime even more?


The problem with attacking a real legacy country is that foreign invasion tends to galvanize public opinion against whoever is doing the attacking.

Whatever issues existed during the Biden years, if the Chinese military began bombing California, you'd see the same thing here.


Yep...I think the most united I've seen our country in my lifetime were the weeks following 9/11.
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Sam Lowry
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In reply to Realitybites • 4:00p
Realitybites said:
Meanwhile, markets are recovering as Trump is saying the war is basically over.

So has Iran agreed to reopen the straits of Hormuz?

If the war's over, I suspect they didn't get the news.
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boognish_bear
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4:01p
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historian
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In reply to KaiBear • 4:03p
KaiBear said:
boognish_bear said:

Seems unlikely.

Even Iran would not be that stupid.

They attacked a dozen countries in the region including important Arab neighbors. Any & every govt is capable of being that stupid. Our own govt has acted equally stupid on multiple occasions.
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historian
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Oldbear83
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In reply to boognish_bear • 4:07p
boognish_bear said:
Realitybites said:
boognish_bear said:
Have we some how galvanized support for their regime even more?


The problem with attacking a real legacy country is that foreign invasion tends to galvanize public opinion against whoever is doing the attacking.

Whatever issues existed during the Biden years, if the Chinese military began bombing California, you'd see the same thing here.


Yep...I think the most united I've seen our country in my lifetime were the weeks following 9/11.

The actions against Iran are cast according to the assumptions of the viewer.

I believe a reasonable take would be to remember what Trump did - and did not do - during his first term.

You may recall how so many people warned Trump would start disastrous wars and ruin the economy. In actual fact, Trump took a few limited military actions, and until the Pandemic his economy was doing quite well. So a reasonable take would be to expect that Trump will make limited strikes on Iran and other enemies, in order to advance US interests. Trump would also have a generally good awareness of the overall economy. Like all politicians, Trump will take credit where he can.

Now where Iran is concerned, I believe the Trump Administration had the following goals:

1) Destroy or at least badly damage Iran's efforts to create a nuclear weapon
2) Hurt Iran's ability to export terrorism
3) Degrade Iran's regional influence
4) Destroy or badly damage any agreements Iran has with nations hostile to the United States
5) Regime change, if possible

I suggest that Trump has accomplished the first four goals. The fifth will depend on IC efforts which will go on in the future.

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historian
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In reply to boognish_bear • 4:08p
boognish_bear said:

The war is not over until the Iranian govt surrenders. They are understandably reluctant since all politicians cling to power. Also, if their regime collapses they will probably face retribution from a population angry about their tyranny & barbarism over the years.
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Bestweekeverr
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In reply to boognish_bear • 4:08p
boognish_bear said:


Based on what, I wonder. Have we accomplished all we can without ground troops?
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Bestweekeverr
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4:11p

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