Interesting article. If you are over 80 you are in the bullseye for this virus and need to stay in lockdown until a vaccine is developed and maybe forever becasue if you are over 80 you may not be healthy enough to take the vaccine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

Is the virus bringing forward deaths by a few months?

Nearly 10% of people aged over 80 will die in the next year, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter at the University of Cambridge points out, and the risk of them dying if infected with coronavirus is almost exactly the same.

That does not mean there will be no extra deaths - but, Sir David says, there will be "a substantial overlap".

"Many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period," he says.

Knowing exactly how many is impossible to tell at this stage.

Prof Neil Ferguson, the lead modeller at Imperial College London, has suggested it could be up to two-thirds.

But while deaths without the virus would be spread over the course of a year, those with the virus could come more quickly - that, of course, was the logic for the lockdown to stop the health service being overwhelmed.

Updated virus progression

US:
March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths
March 29: 18,882 new cases. 264 new deaths
March 30: 20,353 new cases. 573 new deaths.
March 31: 24,742 new cases. 912 new deaths.
April 1: 26,473 new cases. 1049 new deaths.
April 2: 29,874 new cases. 968 new deaths.
April 3: 32,284 new cases. 1,321 new deaths.
April 4: 34,196 new cases. 1,331 new deaths.
April 5: 25,316 new cases. 1,165 new deaths.
April 6: 30,331 new cases. 1,255 new deaths.
April 7: 33,331 new cases. 1,970 new deaths.
April 8: 31,935 new cases. 1,940 new deaths
April 9: 33,536 new cases. 1,900 new deaths.
April 10: 33,752 new cases. 2,035 new deaths.
April 11: 30,003 new cases. 1,830 new deaths
April 12: 27,421 new cases. 1,528 new deaths.
April 13: 26,641 new cases. 1,535 new deaths.
April 14: 30,288 new cases. 6,129 new deaths.
April 15: 30,700 new cases. 2,796 new deaths.
April 16: 31,805 new cases. 2,108 new deaths.
April 17: 31,575 new cases. 2,524 new deaths
April 18: 28,526 new cases. 2,076 new deaths.
April 19: 25,778 new cases. 1,638 new deaths.
April 20: 28,751 new cases. 1,781 new deaths.
April 21: 25,615 new cases. 2,847 new deaths.
April 22: 29,958 new cases. 2,221 new deaths.
April 23: 34,856 new cases. 2,425 new deaths.
April 24: 37,057 new cases. 2,170 new deaths
April 25: 31,750 new cases. 1,797 new deaths.

Total cases (tested): 960,379
Total deaths: 54,254

Texas:
March 30: 2,906 cases. 41 deaths.
March 31: 3,666 cases. 56 deaths.
April 1: 4,068 cases. 60 deaths
April 2: 4,823 cases. 77 deaths
April 3: 5,658 cases. 97 deaths
April 4: 6,311 cases. 111 deaths
April 5: 7,044 cases. 133 deaths
April 6: 8,088 cases. 151 deaths
April 7: 8,939 cases. 167 deaths
April 8: 10,065 cases. 195 deaths
April 9: 11,426 cases. 222 deaths
April 10: 12,186 cases. 248 deaths.
April 11: 13,205 cases. 267 deaths
April 12: 13,640 cases. 278 deaths
April 13: 14,277 cases. 295 deaths
April 14: 15,013 cases. 345 deaths
April 15: 16,009 cases. 375 deaths.
April 16: 17,265 cases. 429 deaths.
April 17: 18,079 cases. 459 deaths.
April 18: 18,921 cases. 484 deaths.
April 19: 19,404 cases. 500 deaths.
April 20: 20,087 cases. 520 deaths.
April 21: 20,975 cases. 545 deaths
April 22: 21,774 cases. 567 deaths.
April 23: 22,650 cases. 604 deaths
April 24: 23,642 cases. 624 deaths.
April 25: 24,157 cases. 638 deaths.

New York:
March 30: 67,325 cases. 1,342 deaths.
March 31: 75,983 cases. 1,714 deaths.
April 1: 83,901 cases. 2,219 deaths. (505 today!)
April 2: 93,053 cases. 2,583 deaths.
April 3: 103,476 cases. 3,218 deaths. (680 today!)
April 4: 114,775 cases. 3,565 deaths.
April 5: 123,018 cases. 4,159 deaths. (594 today)
April 6: 131,916 cases. 4,758 deaths. (599 today)
April 7: 142,384 cases. 5,489 deaths. (731 today)
April 8: 151,171 cases. 6,268 deaths. (779 today)
April 9: 161,504 cases. 7,067 deaths. (799 today)
April 10: 172,358 cases. 7,844 deaths. (777 today)
April 11: 181,144 cases. 8,627 deaths (783 today)
April 12: 189,415 cases. 9,385 deaths (758 today)
April 13: 195,655 cases. 10,056 deaths (671 today)
April 14: 207,168 cases. 14,612 deaths (4,556 today)
April 15: 218,911 cases. 15,648 deaths (1,036 today)
April 16: 227,625 cases. 16,130 deaths (482 today)
April 17: 235,395 cases. 17,131 deaths (1,001 today)
April 18: 242,580 cases. 17,627 deaths (541 today)
April 19: 248,431 cases. 18,298 deaths (671 today)
April 20: 253,324 cases. 18,822 deaths (524 today)
April 21: 258,589 cases. 19,753 deaths (931 today)
April 22: 263,754 cases. 20,255 deaths (501 today)
April 23: 271,162 cases. 20,982 deaths (727 today)
April 24: 279,314 cases. 21,430 deaths (448 today)
April 25: 287,490 cases. 21,802 deaths (372 today)

Georgia:
April 3: 5955 cases. 196 deaths.
April 4: 6373 cases. 206 deaths.
April 5: 6729 cases. 217 deaths.
April 6: 7549 cases. 285 deaths.
April 7: 9131 cases. 335 deaths.
April 8: 10,203 cases. 361 deaths.
April 9: 10,882 cases. 407 deaths.
April 10: 11,852 cases. 421 deaths.
April 11: 12,261 cases. 432 deaths.
April 12: 12,550 cases. 440 deaths.
April 13: 13,621 cases. 477 deaths.
April 14: 14,578 cases. 523 deaths.
April 15: 15,267 cases. 575 deaths.
April 16: 16,354 cases. 613 deaths.
April 17: 17,434 cases. 668 deaths.
April 18: 17,841 cases. 677 deaths.
April 19: 18,297 cases. 687 deaths.
April 20: 19,388 cases. 769 deaths.
April 21: 20,156 cases. 816 deaths.
April 22: 21,090 cases. 845 deaths.
April 23: 21,883 cases. 881 deaths.
April 24: 22,491 cases. 899 deaths.
April 25: 23,222 cases. 907 deaths.

And the beat goes on.

ATL Bear said:

---

Updated virus progression

US:
March 19: 4,530 new cases, 57 new deaths
March 20: 5,594 new cases, 49 new deaths
March 21: 4,824 new cases, 46 new deaths
March 22: 9,339 new cases. 117 new deaths
March 23: 10,168 new cases. 140 new deaths.
March 24: 11,089 new cases. 225 new deaths.
March 25: 13,355 new cases. 247 new deaths.
March 26: 17,224 new cases. 268 new deaths.
March 27: 18,691 new cases. 401 new deaths.
March 28: 19,452 new cases. 525 new deaths
March 29: 18,882 new cases. 264 new deaths
March 30: 20,353 new cases. 573 new deaths.
March 31: 24,742 new cases. 912 new deaths.
April 1: 26,473 new cases. 1049 new deaths.
April 2: 29,874 new cases. 968 new deaths.
April 3: 32,284 new cases. 1,321 new deaths.
April 4: 34,196 new cases. 1,331 new deaths.
April 5: 25,316 new cases. 1,165 new deaths.
April 6: 30,331 new cases. 1,255 new deaths.
April 7: 33,331 new cases. 1,970 new deaths.
April 8: 31,935 new cases. 1,940 new deaths
April 9: 33,536 new cases. 1,900 new deaths.
April 10: 33,752 new cases. 2,035 new deaths.
April 11: 30,003 new cases. 1,830 new deaths
April 12: 27,421 new cases. 1,528 new deaths.
April 13: 26,641 new cases. 1,535 new deaths.
April 14: 30,288 new cases. 6,129 new deaths.
April 15: 30,700 new cases. 2,796 new deaths.
April 16: 31,805 new cases. 2,108 new deaths.
April 17: 31,575 new cases. 2,524 new deaths
April 18: 28,526 new cases. 2,076 new deaths.
April 19: 25,778 new cases. 1,638 new deaths.
April 20: 28,751 new cases. 1,781 new deaths.
April 21: 25,615 new cases. 2,847 new deaths.
April 22: 29,958 new cases. 2,221 new deaths.
April 23: 34,856 new cases. 2,425 new deaths.
April 24: 37,057 new cases. 2,170 new deaths
April 25: 31,750 new cases. 1,797 new deaths.

Total cases (tested): 960,379
Total deaths: 54,254

Texas:
March 30: 2,906 cases. 41 deaths.
March 31: 3,666 cases. 56 deaths.
April 1: 4,068 cases. 60 deaths
April 2: 4,823 cases. 77 deaths
April 3: 5,658 cases. 97 deaths
April 4: 6,311 cases. 111 deaths
April 5: 7,044 cases. 133 deaths
April 6: 8,088 cases. 151 deaths
April 7: 8,939 cases. 167 deaths
April 8: 10,065 cases. 195 deaths
April 9: 11,426 cases. 222 deaths
April 10: 12,186 cases. 248 deaths.
April 11: 13,205 cases. 267 deaths
April 12: 13,640 cases. 278 deaths
April 13: 14,277 cases. 295 deaths
April 14: 15,013 cases. 345 deaths
April 15: 16,009 cases. 375 deaths.
April 16: 17,265 cases. 429 deaths.
April 17: 18,079 cases. 459 deaths.
April 18: 18,921 cases. 484 deaths.
April 19: 19,404 cases. 500 deaths.
April 20: 20,087 cases. 520 deaths.
April 21: 20,975 cases. 545 deaths
April 22: 21,774 cases. 567 deaths.
April 23: 22,650 cases. 604 deaths
April 24: 23,642 cases. 624 deaths.
April 25: 24,157 cases. 638 deaths.

New York:
March 30: 67,325 cases. 1,342 deaths.
March 31: 75,983 cases. 1,714 deaths.
April 1: 83,901 cases. 2,219 deaths. (505 today!)
April 2: 93,053 cases. 2,583 deaths.
April 3: 103,476 cases. 3,218 deaths. (680 today!)
April 4: 114,775 cases. 3,565 deaths.
April 5: 123,018 cases. 4,159 deaths. (594 today)
April 6: 131,916 cases. 4,758 deaths. (599 today)
April 7: 142,384 cases. 5,489 deaths. (731 today)
April 8: 151,171 cases. 6,268 deaths. (779 today)
April 9: 161,504 cases. 7,067 deaths. (799 today)
April 10: 172,358 cases. 7,844 deaths. (777 today)
April 11: 181,144 cases. 8,627 deaths (783 today)
April 12: 189,415 cases. 9,385 deaths (758 today)
April 13: 195,655 cases. 10,056 deaths (671 today)
April 14: 207,168 cases. 14,612 deaths (4,556 today)
April 15: 218,911 cases. 15,648 deaths (1,036 today)
April 16: 227,625 cases. 16,130 deaths (482 today)
April 17: 235,395 cases. 17,131 deaths (1,001 today)
April 18: 242,580 cases. 17,627 deaths (541 today)
April 19: 248,431 cases. 18,298 deaths (671 today)
April 20: 253,324 cases. 18,822 deaths (524 today)
April 21: 258,589 cases. 19,753 deaths (931 today)
April 22: 263,754 cases. 20,255 deaths (501 today)
April 23: 271,162 cases. 20,982 deaths (727 today)
April 24: 279,314 cases. 21,430 deaths (448 today)
April 25: 287,490 cases. 21,802 deaths (372 today)

Georgia:
April 3: 5955 cases. 196 deaths.
April 4: 6373 cases. 206 deaths.
April 5: 6729 cases. 217 deaths.
April 6: 7549 cases. 285 deaths.
April 7: 9131 cases. 335 deaths.
April 8: 10,203 cases. 361 deaths.
April 9: 10,882 cases. 407 deaths.
April 10: 11,852 cases. 421 deaths.
April 11: 12,261 cases. 432 deaths.
April 12: 12,550 cases. 440 deaths.
April 13: 13,621 cases. 477 deaths.
April 14: 14,578 cases. 523 deaths.
April 15: 15,267 cases. 575 deaths.
April 16: 16,354 cases. 613 deaths.
April 17: 17,434 cases. 668 deaths.
April 18: 17,841 cases. 677 deaths.
April 19: 18,297 cases. 687 deaths.
April 20: 19,388 cases. 769 deaths.
April 21: 20,156 cases. 816 deaths.
April 22: 21,090 cases. 845 deaths.
April 23: 21,883 cases. 881 deaths.
April 24: 22,491 cases. 899 deaths.
April 25: 23,222 cases. 907 deaths.

And the beat goes on.

---

Meanwhile, in Waco and McLennan County (population 257,000):

March 30: 3 new cases, 0 deaths
March 31: 5 new cases, 1 death
April 1: 4 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 2: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 3: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 4: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 5: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 6: 3 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 7: 6 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 8: 0 new cases, 1 new death
April 9: 4 new cases, 1 new death
April 10: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 11: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 12: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 13: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 14: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 15: 0 new cases, 1 new death
April 16: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 17: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 18: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 19: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 20: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 21: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 22: 3 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 23: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 24: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 25: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths

Total cases: 81
Total deaths: 4

Percent of Population not sick with the virus: 99.97%

whitetrash said:

---

Meanwhile, in Waco and McLennan County (population 257,000):

March 30: 3 new cases, 0 deaths
March 31: 5 new cases, 1 death
April 1: 4 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 2: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 3: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 4: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 5: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 6: 3 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 7: 6 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 8: 0 new cases, 1 new death
April 9: 4 new cases, 1 new death
April 10: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 11: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 12: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 13: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 14: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 15: 0 new cases, 1 new death
April 16: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 17: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 18: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 19: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 20: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 21: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 22: 3 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 23: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 24: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 25: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths

Total cases: 81
Total deaths: 4

Percent of Population not sick with the virus: 99.97%

---

Texas is doing well anyway you slice it. Current known infections would show 99.92% without the virus. Probably a lot more unknown infected, but it's certainly not manifesting in hospitalizations or deaths.

Jacques Strap said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

---

OK, Stevie Wonder.

bear2be2 said:

---

The rise is alarming. But without a control group, I don't think we can draw these types of conclusions. And given what we do know about this virus and its transmission, I think it's reasonable to assume those new case numbers would be higher without some social distancing measures in place.

But it goes back to what Sam and I have been saying. If only 4-8 percent of most communities (New York is higher) have been infected by the virus, that leaves a massive portion of the population still unaffected. And with no vaccine to reduce the transmission rate, it's foolhardy to think this virus has actually hit its peak. This is what makes those who think "flattening the curve" was some sort of finish line so ill-informed. We're going to be spreading this virus from person to person for months. We're just trying to slow that spread enough to keep individual communities from being overrun because that's where the greatest danger comes.

---

We have multiple control groups to evaluate, and the data is now almost 2 months in. That's plenty of time to prepare and insure communities aren't getting overrun. We're there. The only thing we could possibly critique at this stage is that we don't have a test available for everyone. At this point, other than the passage of time toward a vaccine or treatment, there's no scientific reason not to begin to responsibly loosen the restrictions and phase up our opening.

Sam Lowry said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

If social distancing and lockdowns are working, then it's not showing in the numbers. Today was the highest new case day in the US (it beat yesterday's high), and it is driven by the usual suspect states that have been on extreme measures the longest.

---

Meaning the shortest.

---

You need to stop quoting outdated articles. Unfortunately, California has been rising significantly after a good start.

---

Not really. With a population roughly twice New York's, California had 1794 new cases yesterday to NY's 8192. As of today CA is at 105 cases per 100K people, less than 1/5 of Louisiana and less than 1/10 of NY.

---

Yes, NY and CA should be compared and contrasted as to why one is having success and the other not comparatively. Whether social distancing measures matter as much as we think is likely not the factor since they both were early adopters. It still doesn't change the fact that California's uptick has been as of late.

---

Well, that goes back to the WaPo article I linked above. CA was an earlier adopter.

---

NY and CA started the same measures 5 days apart, so I hope you're not saying that is the main reason the two have performed differently.

From the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown.html?referringSource=articleShare

America Shouldn't Have to Play by New York Rules

Exceprts below....

As of Friday, there have been more Covid-19 fatalities on Long Island's Nassau County (population 1.4 million) than in all of California (population 40 million). There have been more fatalities in Westchester County (989) than in Texas (611). The number of Covid deaths per 100,000 residents in New York City (132) is more than 16 times what it is in America's next largest city, Los Angeles (8). If New York City proper were a state, it would have suffered more fatalities than 41 other states combined.

It isn't hard to guess why. New York has, by far, the highest population density in the U.S. among cities of 100,000 or more. Commuters crowd trains, office workers crowd elevators, diners crowd restaurants. No other American city has the same kind of jammed pedestrian life as New York Times Square alone gets 40 million visitors a year or as many residents packed into high-rises. The city even has a neighborhood called Corona, which, it turns out, has among the highest rates of coronavirus infections.

Yet Americans are being told they must still play by New York rules with all the hardships they entail despite having neither New York's living conditions nor New York's health outcomes. This is bad medicine, misguided public policy, and horrible politics.

On Friday, I spoke with Tomislav Mihaljevic, C.E.O. of the widely admired Cleveland Clinic, and an advocate of the need to use "tailored and discriminating solutions" that also recognize regional differences. At the moment, he says, "We're using the methodology from the 14th century to combat the biggest pandemic of the 21st century." It can't go on.

That means accepting that the immediate goal of public policy cannot be to eliminate the risk of Covid-19. It is to mitigate, manage and frame expectations for it while not losing sight of other priorities. In Ohio Dr. Mihaljevic says that Covid patients take up just 2 percent of hospital capacity, and the curve of new infections has been flat for more than two weeks. Yet there has been a dramatic decline in people seeking care for heart attacks, strokes, or new cancers, presumably out of fear of going to hospital.

"The public conversation needs to be about the value of human life in its totality," Dr. Mihaljevic says. That includes fewer restrictions on activity for people at the low end of the risk spectrum, while taking additional care of those on the high end. It is to mitigate, manage and frame expectations for it while not losing sight of other priorities. In Ohio Dr. Mihaljevic says that Covid patients take up just 2 percent of hospital capacity, and the curve of new infections has been flat for more than two weeks. Yet there has been a dramatic decline in people seeking care for heart attacks, strokes, or new cancers, presumably out of fear of going to hospital.

"The public conversation needs to be about the value of human life in its totality," Dr. Mihaljevic says. That includes fewer restrictions on activity for people at the low end of the risk spectrum, while taking additional care of those on the high end.

Right now, there's a lot of commentary coming from talking heads (many of them in New York) about the danger of lifting lockdowns in places like Tennessee. Perhaps the commentary needs to move in the opposite direction. Tennesseeans are within their rights to return to a semblance of normal life while demanding longer restrictions on New Yorkers.

https://abc7.com/society/heat-wave-draws-thousands-to-orange-county-beaches/6127891/

Tens of thousands flock to Orange County beaches as heat wave lingers over SoCal

Quote:

---

Newport Beach also saw large crowds. Area lifeguards estimate up to 40,000 people were on the beach on Friday - double what they saw the day before.

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

If social distancing and lockdowns are working, then it's not showing in the numbers. Today was the highest new case day in the US (it beat yesterday's high), and it is driven by the usual suspect states that have been on extreme measures the longest.

---

Meaning the shortest.

---

You need to stop quoting outdated articles. Unfortunately, California has been rising significantly after a good start.

---

Not really. With a population roughly twice New York's, California had 1794 new cases yesterday to NY's 8192. As of today CA is at 105 cases per 100K people, less than 1/5 of Louisiana and less than 1/10 of NY.

---

Yes, NY and CA should be compared and contrasted as to why one is having success and the other not comparatively. Whether social distancing measures matter as much as we think is likely not the factor since they both were early adopters. It still doesn't change the fact that California's uptick has been as of late.

---

Well, that goes back to the WaPo article I linked above. CA was an earlier adopter.

---

NY and CA started the same measures 5 days apart, so I hope you're not saying that is the main reason the two have performed differently.

---

The New York Health order that forced Nursing Homes (with no cases) to accept patients with suspected cases of COVI-19 is the reason the death toll is so high in NY. They threw a molotov cocktail into a barn of dry hay. NH = Nursing Home.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/system/files/documents/2020/03/doh_covid19-_nhadmissionsreadmissions_-032520.pdf

Quote:

---

No resident shall be denied re-admission or admission to the NH solely based on a confirmed or suspected diagnosis of COVID-19. NHs are prohibited from requiring a hospitalized resident who is determined medically stable to be tested for COVID-19 prior to admission or readmission.

---

whitetrash said:

---

Meanwhile, in Waco and McLennan County (population 257,000):

March 30: 3 new cases, 0 deaths
March 31: 5 new cases, 1 death
April 1: 4 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 2: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 3: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 4: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 5: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 6: 3 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 7: 6 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 8: 0 new cases, 1 new death
April 9: 4 new cases, 1 new death
April 10: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 11: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 12: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 13: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 14: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 15: 0 new cases, 1 new death
April 16: 2 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 17: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 18: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 19: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 20: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 21: 1 new case, 0 new deaths
April 22: 3 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 23: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 24: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths
April 25: 0 new cases, 0 new deaths

Total cases: 81
Total deaths: 4

Percent of Population not sick with the virus: 99.97%

---

Great news. Kickoff begins this fall

Hardly any infected prisoners showing symptoms.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX

ATL Bear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

If social distancing and lockdowns are working, then it's not showing in the numbers. Today was the highest new case day in the US (it beat yesterday's high), and it is driven by the usual suspect states that have been on extreme measures the longest.

---

Meaning the shortest.

---

You need to stop quoting outdated articles. Unfortunately, California has been rising significantly after a good start.

---

Not really. With a population roughly twice New York's, California had 1794 new cases yesterday to NY's 8192. As of today CA is at 105 cases per 100K people, less than 1/5 of Louisiana and less than 1/10 of NY.

---

Yes, NY and CA should be compared and contrasted as to why one is having success and the other not comparatively. Whether social distancing measures matter as much as we think is likely not the factor since they both were early adopters. It still doesn't change the fact that California's uptick has been as of late.

---

Well, that goes back to the WaPo article I linked above. CA was an earlier adopter.

---

NY and CA started the same measures 5 days apart, so I hope you're not saying that is the main reason the two have performed differently.

---

Look at the curves in NYC and San Francisco from 3/13 to 3/22.

Jacques Strap said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

---

Yes are operating Blind. Who is asymptomatic and who is not? I get a test and I am negative but the day i come in contact with an asymptomatic person. I don't know it. How often should i be tested?
We are all operating blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.

Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

Waco1947 said:

---

Jacques Strap said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

---

Yes are operating Blind. Who is asymptomatic and who is not? I get a test and I am negative but the day i come in contact with an asymptomatic person. I don't know it. How often should i be tested?
We are all operating blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.

Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

You know you can stay inside. Nobody makes you come out

Waco1947 said:

---

Jacques Strap said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

---

Yes are operating Blind. Who is asymptomatic and who is not? I get a test and I am negative but the day i come in contact with an asymptomatic person. I don't know it. How often should i be tested?
We are all operating blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.

Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

Let me guess... all this testing will take, what, 191 days?

HashTag said:

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Waco1947 said:

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Jacques Strap said:

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Waco1947 said:

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We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

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Yes are operating Blind. Who is asymptomatic and who is not? I get a test and I am negative but the day i come in contact with an asymptomatic person. I don't know it. How often should i be tested?
We are all operating blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.

Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

Let me guess... all this testing will take, what, 191 days?

---

Until every ballot box 'needed' is found in as many car trunks in Democrat precincts as is enough to insure victory at any cost.

Oldbear83 said:

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HashTag said:

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Waco1947 said:

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Jacques Strap said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

---

Yes are operating Blind. Who is asymptomatic and who is not? I get a test and I am negative but the day i come in contact with an asymptomatic person. I don't know it. How often should i be tested?
We are all operating blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.

Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

Let me guess... all this testing will take, what, 191 days?

---

Until every ballot box 'needed' is found in as many car trunks in Democrat precincts as is enough to insure victory at any cost.

---

Until every polling place in Democratic precincts is relocated far enough away to secure victory, until every voter roll is purged of eligible Democratic voters, etc.

Anyone with half a brain can look at the data we have and determine if they are in the at risk population or not. That's why 40,000 people caught some rays at Newport Beach CA this weekend and New Yorkers went to Central Park.

quash said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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HashTag said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

Jacques Strap said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

---

Yes are operating Blind. Who is asymptomatic and who is not? I get a test and I am negative but the day i come in contact with an asymptomatic person. I don't know it. How often should i be tested?
We are all operating blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.

Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

Let me guess... all this testing will take, what, 191 days?

---

Until every ballot box 'needed' is found in as many car trunks in Democrat precincts as is enough to insure victory at any cost.

---

Until every polling place in Democratic precincts is relocated far enough away to secure victory, until every voter roll is purged of eligible Democratic voters, etc.

---

Cool story, Francis.

quash said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

HashTag said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

Jacques Strap said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

---

Yes are operating Blind. Who is asymptomatic and who is not? I get a test and I am negative but the day i come in contact with an asymptomatic person. I don't know it. How often should i be tested?
We are all operating blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.

Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

Let me guess... all this testing will take, what, 191 days?

---

Until every ballot box 'needed' is found in as many car trunks in Democrat precincts as is enough to insure victory at any cost.

---

Until every polling place in Democratic precincts is relocated far enough away to secure victory, until every voter roll is purged of eligible Democratic voters, etc.

---

I wonder if any Republicans actually live abroad...

And if so, do they actually mail their ballot in?

I think I've met one in my decade abroad. Then again he was from California, so he can't be trusted according this board.

Oldbear83 said:

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quash said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

HashTag said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

Jacques Strap said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

---

Yes are operating Blind. Who is asymptomatic and who is not? I get a test and I am negative but the day i come in contact with an asymptomatic person. I don't know it. How often should i be tested?
We are all operating blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.

Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

Let me guess... all this testing will take, what, 191 days?

---

Until every ballot box 'needed' is found in as many car trunks in Democrat precincts as is enough to insure victory at any cost.

---

Until every polling place in Democratic precincts is relocated far enough away to secure victory, until every voter roll is purged of eligible Democratic voters, etc.

---

Cool story, Francis.

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Voting restrictions is a Too Party effort. You could look it up.

quash said:

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Oldbear83 said:

---

quash said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

HashTag said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

Jacques Strap said:

---

Waco1947 said:

---

We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

---

Yes are operating Blind. Who is asymptomatic and who is not? I get a test and I am negative but the day i come in contact with an asymptomatic person. I don't know it. How often should i be tested?
We are all operating blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.

Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

Let me guess... all this testing will take, what, 191 days?

---

Until every ballot box 'needed' is found in as many car trunks in Democrat precincts as is enough to insure victory at any cost.

---

Until every polling place in Democratic precincts is relocated far enough away to secure victory, until every voter roll is purged of eligible Democratic voters, etc.

---

Cool story, Francis.

---

Voting restrictions is a Too Party effort. You could look it up.

---

I know the facts, and the spin. I suspect I know which you chose to believe.

Panic Porn hardest hit.

Jacques Strap said:

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Anyone with half a brain can look at the data we have and determine if they are in the at risk population or not. That's why 40,000 people caught some rays at Newport Beach CA this weekend and New Yorkers went to Central Park.

---

Actually all you know is that you are at less risk based on your demographic. This is because it is not known why given two believed to be very healthy well under 60 year-olds, one has little or no symptoms and gets over it quickly, and the other is dead two days after showing even minor symptoms. The hesitation of not feeling in danger one might normally have is fostered by the lack of any reliable treatment if you fall into the latter category. You don't get a "do-over".

It will take time for the public to get past this uncertainty in masses large enough to support the economy as it was at the beginning of the year. This will mean unemployment for a lot of people for a longer than expected period of time.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/legault-to-outline-plan-for-ending-school-closures/wcm/ef323f67-4f86-4dba-bc40-18b6c4161077/

Elementary schools and daycares outside the Montreal area will start re-opening May 11 but those in Montreal won't re-open until May 19, Premier Franois Legault announced Monday.

But high schools, CEGEPs and universities across Quebec will not re-open until the end of August.

==================

Sweden's elementary and middle schools never closed. AFAIK zero deaths under 20 years of age in Sweden.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Gov. Greg Abbott on Monday said he will let the state's stay-at-home order expire at the end of the month, and allow businesses to begin opening in phases in May.

First to open on Friday: Retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls. But they will only be allowed to operate at 25% capacity. Museums and libraries will also be allowed to open at 25% capacity, but hands-on exhibits must remain closed.

Abbott's order supersedes local orders saying those businesses must remain closed. But the reopenings are optional. Businesses can stay closed if they wish, Abbott said.

At the same time, Abbott said he is holding off on reopening certain businesses for the time being, including barbershops, hair salons, bars and gyms. He said he hopes those businesses can open "on or no later than mid-May."

What bull shlt

Jack Bauer said:

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Gov. Greg Abbott on Monday said he will let the state's stay-at-home order expire at the end of the month, and allow businesses to begin opening in phases in May.

First to open on Friday: Retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls. But they will only be allowed to operate at 25% capacity. Museums and libraries will also be allowed to open at 25% capacity, but hands-on exhibits must remain closed.

Abbott's order supersedes local orders saying those businesses must remain closed. But the reopenings are optional. Businesses can stay closed if they wish, Abbott said.

At the same time, Abbott said he is holding off on reopening certain businesses for the time being, including barbershops, hair salons, bars and gyms. He said he hopes those businesses can open "on or no later than mid-May."

---

I suppose the question is at what point does one challenge the government's right to hinder free enterprise? Who is monitoring the 25%? Do those businesses only owe 25% to their creditors?

What if you're a gym owner?

There is a bridal shop in Columbus that is suing the State of Ohio basically arguing that the State's definition of essential was completely arbitrary.

Illinois

Waco1947 said:

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Jacques Strap said:

---

Waco1947 said:

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We are all operating in the blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.
Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

We are not in the blind. Far from it.

---

Yes are operating Blind. Who is asymptomatic and who is not? I get a test and I am negative but the day i come in contact with an asymptomatic person. I don't know it. How often should i be tested?
We are all operating blind. We need testing, testing and more testing to know anything about its spread and infection rates.

Did I mention testing, testing and more testing?

---

The focus should be on the real danger the virus still presents. If we know hospitalizations are down and deaths are down, why this new obsession on discovering every asymptomatic carrier?

CDC: Listen, yeah it's okay to go ahead and go to work even if you've been exposed because... well... between you and me.... this thing isn't really all that dangerous or deadly.


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/organizations/meat-poultry-processing-workers-employers.html?deliveryName=USCDC_2067-DM26823

Quote:

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Meat and poultry processing facilities are a component of the critical infrastructure within the Food and Agriculture Sectorpdf iconexternal icon. CDC's Critical Infrastructure Guidance advises that critical infrastructure workers may be permitted to continue work following potential exposure to COVID-19, provided they remain asymptomatic and additional precautions are implemented to protect them and the community.

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I'll post a 2 day update tonight, but NY has had a precipitous drop in new cases and fatalities. Accordingly, that makes the entire US situation look massively improved. What we need is continued good news from Georgia and Texas the next few weeks along with the Western state coalition and hopefully we start fighting back the fear.