Booray said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Booray said:

---

You guys are missing it. Trump is going to be sunk by a wave of suburban women and any of their husbands who: (1) can't lie convincingly and (2) want to get laid some time in the next four years.

I am hazarding a guess that one reason this board skews towards Trump is that it is almost all male. The gender gap in this race is going to be gigantic.

---

Intimidation by your foot soldiers will work on many white women ,

No doubt in your mind the end justifies the means .

---

Tiresome.

---

If suburban women want to avoid getting laid by anything other than repulsive submissive manlets... they will find a strong conservative man and support him.

Booray said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Booray said:

---

You guys are missing it. Trump is going to be sunk by a wave of suburban women and any of their husbands who: (1) can't lie convincingly and (2) want to get laid some time in the next four years.

I am hazarding a guess that one reason this board skews towards Trump is that it is almost all male. The gender gap in this race is going to be gigantic.

---

Intimidation by your foot soldiers will work on many white women ,

No doubt in your mind the end justifies the means .

---

Tiresome.

---

Deflection

Canada2017 said:

---

Booray said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Booray said:

---

You guys are missing it. Trump is going to be sunk by a wave of suburban women and any of their husbands who: (1) can't lie convincingly and (2) want to get laid some time in the next four years.

I am hazarding a guess that one reason this board skews towards Trump is that it is almost all male. The gender gap in this race is going to be gigantic.

---

Intimidation by your foot soldiers will work on many white women ,

No doubt in your mind the end justifies the means .

---

Tiresome.

---

Deflection

---

Not going to engage in insults today. Your misery will be big enough.

Mothra said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

The_barBEARian said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

I'm betting our country doesn't change dramatically regardless of who wins. I'm sure people's perceptions or feelings about the country might change or be heightened, but at the end it hopefully won't dramatically change.

---

This is naive and wishful thinking if you dont think the democrats(socialists) arent going to enact radical legislation once they control both houses of congress and the presidency.

If they get complete control I predict:

Implementing hate speech laws and labeling all white conservatives as racists and domestic terrorists.
Raising capital gains rate to standard income tax.
Removing private gun ownership.
Continuing to destroy American history.
Passing Green New deal legislation and crippling the economy.

And those are just to get things started..... We will become a 2nd world country by the time Biden's 1st term ends... and well on our way to 3rd world status by the end of his presidency.

---

I'm a lot of things, but naive isn't one of them. Much of what you said wouldn't survive a constitutional challenge. Secondly, if they choose to destroy the economy, they will lose back all their gains. I believe people are stupid enough to vote their potential demise when hidden behind messaging, I'm certain they won't vote for it while feeling the demise. At least most won't.

As far as painting conservatives as racist (skin color doesn't even matter) and overturning our history, the fight is already here and will be here regardless of who the occupant on Pennsylvania Ave is. That's a battle beyond government.

There will be some changes, and they will suck for you, me and many Americans for some period, but the fundamental process will turn on itself as it is an ideology that fails its citizens and can't be ignored. Mistakes made will be corrected. I would certainly prefer to not go through the pain, but welcome to populist democracy.

---

Agreed. Getting rid of private gun ownership and implementing hate speech laws isn't going to pass constitutional muster. Even if Joe packs the SC, I don't think the liberal justices will all go along with this.

---

Heller is a well reasoned, historically grounded decision, but there are plenty of left-leaning lawyers who consider it a total sham. Don't think for a minute that there won't be a push to overturn it if they pack the Court.

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

The_barBEARian said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

I'm betting our country doesn't change dramatically regardless of who wins. I'm sure people's perceptions or feelings about the country might change or be heightened, but at the end it hopefully won't dramatically change.

---

This is naive and wishful thinking if you dont think the democrats(socialists) arent going to enact radical legislation once they control both houses of congress and the presidency.

If they get complete control I predict:

Implementing hate speech laws and labeling all white conservatives as racists and domestic terrorists.
Raising capital gains rate to standard income tax.
Removing private gun ownership.
Continuing to destroy American history.
Passing Green New deal legislation and crippling the economy.

And those are just to get things started..... We will become a 2nd world country by the time Biden's 1st term ends... and well on our way to 3rd world status by the end of his presidency.

---

I'm a lot of things, but naive isn't one of them. Much of what you said wouldn't survive a constitutional challenge. Secondly, if they choose to destroy the economy, they will lose back all their gains. I believe people are stupid enough to vote their potential demise when hidden behind messaging, I'm certain they won't vote for it while feeling the demise. At least most won't.

As far as painting conservatives as racist (skin color doesn't even matter) and overturning our history, the fight is already here and will be here regardless of who the occupant on Pennsylvania Ave is. That's a battle beyond government.

There will be some changes, and they will suck for you, me and many Americans for some period, but the fundamental process will turn on itself as it is an ideology that fails its citizens and can't be ignored. Mistakes made will be corrected. I would certainly prefer to not go through the pain, but welcome to populist democracy.

---

Agreed. Getting rid of private gun ownership and implementing hate speech laws isn't going to pass constitutional muster. Even if Joe packs the SC, I don't think the liberal justices will all go along with this.

---

Heller is a well reasoned, historically grounded decision, but there are plenty of left-leaning lawyers who consider it a total sham. Don't think for a minute that there won't be a push to overturn it if they pack the Court.

---

Taking all guns away is a two-step process. You would have to overrule Heller and pass legislation to do so. Taking certain types of guns away, limiting their possession in public, beefing up registration, etc., would not require overruling Heller.

Booray said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

The_barBEARian said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

I'm betting our country doesn't change dramatically regardless of who wins. I'm sure people's perceptions or feelings about the country might change or be heightened, but at the end it hopefully won't dramatically change.

---

This is naive and wishful thinking if you dont think the democrats(socialists) arent going to enact radical legislation once they control both houses of congress and the presidency.

If they get complete control I predict:

Implementing hate speech laws and labeling all white conservatives as racists and domestic terrorists.
Raising capital gains rate to standard income tax.
Removing private gun ownership.
Continuing to destroy American history.
Passing Green New deal legislation and crippling the economy.

And those are just to get things started..... We will become a 2nd world country by the time Biden's 1st term ends... and well on our way to 3rd world status by the end of his presidency.

---

I'm a lot of things, but naive isn't one of them. Much of what you said wouldn't survive a constitutional challenge. Secondly, if they choose to destroy the economy, they will lose back all their gains. I believe people are stupid enough to vote their potential demise when hidden behind messaging, I'm certain they won't vote for it while feeling the demise. At least most won't.

As far as painting conservatives as racist (skin color doesn't even matter) and overturning our history, the fight is already here and will be here regardless of who the occupant on Pennsylvania Ave is. That's a battle beyond government.

There will be some changes, and they will suck for you, me and many Americans for some period, but the fundamental process will turn on itself as it is an ideology that fails its citizens and can't be ignored. Mistakes made will be corrected. I would certainly prefer to not go through the pain, but welcome to populist democracy.

---

Agreed. Getting rid of private gun ownership and implementing hate speech laws isn't going to pass constitutional muster. Even if Joe packs the SC, I don't think the liberal justices will all go along with this.

---

Heller is a well reasoned, historically grounded decision, but there are plenty of left-leaning lawyers who consider it a total sham. Don't think for a minute that there won't be a push to overturn it if they pack the Court.

---

Taking all guns away is a two-step process. You would have to overrule Heller and pass legislation to do so. Taking certain types of guns away, limiting their possession in public, beefing up registration, etc., would not require overruling Heller.

---

They try to take away guns that are already in peoples' hands, that is going to prove to be a massive mistake.

Robert Wilson said:

---

Booray said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

The_barBEARian said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

I'm betting our country doesn't change dramatically regardless of who wins. I'm sure people's perceptions or feelings about the country might change or be heightened, but at the end it hopefully won't dramatically change.

---

This is naive and wishful thinking if you dont think the democrats(socialists) arent going to enact radical legislation once they control both houses of congress and the presidency.

If they get complete control I predict:

Implementing hate speech laws and labeling all white conservatives as racists and domestic terrorists.
Raising capital gains rate to standard income tax.
Removing private gun ownership.
Continuing to destroy American history.
Passing Green New deal legislation and crippling the economy.

And those are just to get things started..... We will become a 2nd world country by the time Biden's 1st term ends... and well on our way to 3rd world status by the end of his presidency.

---

I'm a lot of things, but naive isn't one of them. Much of what you said wouldn't survive a constitutional challenge. Secondly, if they choose to destroy the economy, they will lose back all their gains. I believe people are stupid enough to vote their potential demise when hidden behind messaging, I'm certain they won't vote for it while feeling the demise. At least most won't.

As far as painting conservatives as racist (skin color doesn't even matter) and overturning our history, the fight is already here and will be here regardless of who the occupant on Pennsylvania Ave is. That's a battle beyond government.

There will be some changes, and they will suck for you, me and many Americans for some period, but the fundamental process will turn on itself as it is an ideology that fails its citizens and can't be ignored. Mistakes made will be corrected. I would certainly prefer to not go through the pain, but welcome to populist democracy.

---

Agreed. Getting rid of private gun ownership and implementing hate speech laws isn't going to pass constitutional muster. Even if Joe packs the SC, I don't think the liberal justices will all go along with this.

---

Heller is a well reasoned, historically grounded decision, but there are plenty of left-leaning lawyers who consider it a total sham. Don't think for a minute that there won't be a push to overturn it if they pack the Court.

---

Taking all guns away is a two-step process. You would have to overrule Heller and pass legislation to do so. Taking certain types of guns away, limiting their possession in public, beefing up registration, etc., would not require overruling Heller.

---

They try to take away guns that are already in peoples' hands, that is going to prove to be a massive mistake.

---

Nobody would be going door to door. It would become an additional charge when you got arrested for other things.

Booray said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

The_barBEARian said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

I'm betting our country doesn't change dramatically regardless of who wins. I'm sure people's perceptions or feelings about the country might change or be heightened, but at the end it hopefully won't dramatically change.

---

This is naive and wishful thinking if you dont think the democrats(socialists) arent going to enact radical legislation once they control both houses of congress and the presidency.

If they get complete control I predict:

Implementing hate speech laws and labeling all white conservatives as racists and domestic terrorists.
Raising capital gains rate to standard income tax.
Removing private gun ownership.
Continuing to destroy American history.
Passing Green New deal legislation and crippling the economy.

And those are just to get things started..... We will become a 2nd world country by the time Biden's 1st term ends... and well on our way to 3rd world status by the end of his presidency.

---

I'm a lot of things, but naive isn't one of them. Much of what you said wouldn't survive a constitutional challenge. Secondly, if they choose to destroy the economy, they will lose back all their gains. I believe people are stupid enough to vote their potential demise when hidden behind messaging, I'm certain they won't vote for it while feeling the demise. At least most won't.

As far as painting conservatives as racist (skin color doesn't even matter) and overturning our history, the fight is already here and will be here regardless of who the occupant on Pennsylvania Ave is. That's a battle beyond government.

There will be some changes, and they will suck for you, me and many Americans for some period, but the fundamental process will turn on itself as it is an ideology that fails its citizens and can't be ignored. Mistakes made will be corrected. I would certainly prefer to not go through the pain, but welcome to populist democracy.

---

Agreed. Getting rid of private gun ownership and implementing hate speech laws isn't going to pass constitutional muster. Even if Joe packs the SC, I don't think the liberal justices will all go along with this.

---

Heller is a well reasoned, historically grounded decision, but there are plenty of left-leaning lawyers who consider it a total sham. Don't think for a minute that there won't be a push to overturn it if they pack the Court.

---

Taking all guns away is a two-step process. You would have to overrule Heller and pass legislation to do so. Taking certain types of guns away, limiting their possession in public, beefing up registration, etc., would not require overruling Heller.

---

Thats true. I feel they will go back to the bans on assault rifles, large clips, and so forth. It will be like the prior bill that limited all this but maybe more strict.

Booray said:

---

Robert Wilson said:

---

Booray said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

The_barBEARian said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

I'm betting our country doesn't change dramatically regardless of who wins. I'm sure people's perceptions or feelings about the country might change or be heightened, but at the end it hopefully won't dramatically change.

---

This is naive and wishful thinking if you dont think the democrats(socialists) arent going to enact radical legislation once they control both houses of congress and the presidency.

If they get complete control I predict:

Implementing hate speech laws and labeling all white conservatives as racists and domestic terrorists.
Raising capital gains rate to standard income tax.
Removing private gun ownership.
Continuing to destroy American history.
Passing Green New deal legislation and crippling the economy.

And those are just to get things started..... We will become a 2nd world country by the time Biden's 1st term ends... and well on our way to 3rd world status by the end of his presidency.

---

I'm a lot of things, but naive isn't one of them. Much of what you said wouldn't survive a constitutional challenge. Secondly, if they choose to destroy the economy, they will lose back all their gains. I believe people are stupid enough to vote their potential demise when hidden behind messaging, I'm certain they won't vote for it while feeling the demise. At least most won't.

As far as painting conservatives as racist (skin color doesn't even matter) and overturning our history, the fight is already here and will be here regardless of who the occupant on Pennsylvania Ave is. That's a battle beyond government.

There will be some changes, and they will suck for you, me and many Americans for some period, but the fundamental process will turn on itself as it is an ideology that fails its citizens and can't be ignored. Mistakes made will be corrected. I would certainly prefer to not go through the pain, but welcome to populist democracy.

---

Agreed. Getting rid of private gun ownership and implementing hate speech laws isn't going to pass constitutional muster. Even if Joe packs the SC, I don't think the liberal justices will all go along with this.

---

Heller is a well reasoned, historically grounded decision, but there are plenty of left-leaning lawyers who consider it a total sham. Don't think for a minute that there won't be a push to overturn it if they pack the Court.

---

Taking all guns away is a two-step process. You would have to overrule Heller and pass legislation to do so. Taking certain types of guns away, limiting their possession in public, beefing up registration, etc., would not require overruling Heller.

---

They try to take away guns that are already in peoples' hands, that is going to prove to be a massive mistake.

---

Nobody would be going door to door. It would become an additional charge when you got arrested for other things.

---

You mean only if it is in your possession? That's not much of a change from what they do now.

Booray said:

---

Robert Wilson said:

---

Booray said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

The_barBEARian said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

I'm betting our country doesn't change dramatically regardless of who wins. I'm sure people's perceptions or feelings about the country might change or be heightened, but at the end it hopefully won't dramatically change.

---

This is naive and wishful thinking if you dont think the democrats(socialists) arent going to enact radical legislation once they control both houses of congress and the presidency.

If they get complete control I predict:

Implementing hate speech laws and labeling all white conservatives as racists and domestic terrorists.
Raising capital gains rate to standard income tax.
Removing private gun ownership.
Continuing to destroy American history.
Passing Green New deal legislation and crippling the economy.

And those are just to get things started..... We will become a 2nd world country by the time Biden's 1st term ends... and well on our way to 3rd world status by the end of his presidency.

---

I'm a lot of things, but naive isn't one of them. Much of what you said wouldn't survive a constitutional challenge. Secondly, if they choose to destroy the economy, they will lose back all their gains. I believe people are stupid enough to vote their potential demise when hidden behind messaging, I'm certain they won't vote for it while feeling the demise. At least most won't.

As far as painting conservatives as racist (skin color doesn't even matter) and overturning our history, the fight is already here and will be here regardless of who the occupant on Pennsylvania Ave is. That's a battle beyond government.

There will be some changes, and they will suck for you, me and many Americans for some period, but the fundamental process will turn on itself as it is an ideology that fails its citizens and can't be ignored. Mistakes made will be corrected. I would certainly prefer to not go through the pain, but welcome to populist democracy.

---

Agreed. Getting rid of private gun ownership and implementing hate speech laws isn't going to pass constitutional muster. Even if Joe packs the SC, I don't think the liberal justices will all go along with this.

---

Heller is a well reasoned, historically grounded decision, but there are plenty of left-leaning lawyers who consider it a total sham. Don't think for a minute that there won't be a push to overturn it if they pack the Court.

---

Taking all guns away is a two-step process. You would have to overrule Heller and pass legislation to do so. Taking certain types of guns away, limiting their possession in public, beefing up registration, etc., would not require overruling Heller.

---

They try to take away guns that are already in peoples' hands, that is going to prove to be a massive mistake.

---

Nobody would be going door to door. It would become an additional charge when you got arrested for other things.

---

Kind of like drugs?

Sam Lowry said:

---

Booray said:

---

Robert Wilson said:

---

Booray said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mothra said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

The_barBEARian said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

I'm betting our country doesn't change dramatically regardless of who wins. I'm sure people's perceptions or feelings about the country might change or be heightened, but at the end it hopefully won't dramatically change.

---

This is naive and wishful thinking if you dont think the democrats(socialists) arent going to enact radical legislation once they control both houses of congress and the presidency.

If they get complete control I predict:

Implementing hate speech laws and labeling all white conservatives as racists and domestic terrorists.
Raising capital gains rate to standard income tax.
Removing private gun ownership.
Continuing to destroy American history.
Passing Green New deal legislation and crippling the economy.

And those are just to get things started..... We will become a 2nd world country by the time Biden's 1st term ends... and well on our way to 3rd world status by the end of his presidency.

---

I'm a lot of things, but naive isn't one of them. Much of what you said wouldn't survive a constitutional challenge. Secondly, if they choose to destroy the economy, they will lose back all their gains. I believe people are stupid enough to vote their potential demise when hidden behind messaging, I'm certain they won't vote for it while feeling the demise. At least most won't.

As far as painting conservatives as racist (skin color doesn't even matter) and overturning our history, the fight is already here and will be here regardless of who the occupant on Pennsylvania Ave is. That's a battle beyond government.

There will be some changes, and they will suck for you, me and many Americans for some period, but the fundamental process will turn on itself as it is an ideology that fails its citizens and can't be ignored. Mistakes made will be corrected. I would certainly prefer to not go through the pain, but welcome to populist democracy.

---

Agreed. Getting rid of private gun ownership and implementing hate speech laws isn't going to pass constitutional muster. Even if Joe packs the SC, I don't think the liberal justices will all go along with this.

---

Heller is a well reasoned, historically grounded decision, but there are plenty of left-leaning lawyers who consider it a total sham. Don't think for a minute that there won't be a push to overturn it if they pack the Court.

---

Taking all guns away is a two-step process. You would have to overrule Heller and pass legislation to do so. Taking certain types of guns away, limiting their possession in public, beefing up registration, etc., would not require overruling Heller.

---

They try to take away guns that are already in peoples' hands, that is going to prove to be a massive mistake.

---

Nobody would be going door to door. It would become an additional charge when you got arrested for other things.

---

Kind of like drugs?

---

If you mean weed, yes.

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Gruvin said:

---

Here they come!

---

I understand few of us trust all the polls, but if they are right that independents lean Biden and there will be more GOP crossovers to Biden than vice versa, what do you think today's party ID margin must be in FL? Thanks again for all your info and analysis.

---

What I'm hearing is that 75-90% of the Republicans jumping to support Biden are in the 18-24 age range, while 60-75% of the Democrats supporting Trump are in the 35-49 age range. Available data indicates that only 3% of all early voters are in the 18-24 age range, but there is no clear consensus on what percentage is in the 35-49 age range.

FWIW

---

I'd love to know how many Democrats will vote Trump lol, sure there have to be some, but hardly any.

Biden/Harris might be awful, but it's time to give a different awful a chance at being less awful. It's sad politics is like this, but this election will show that America is just ready for something different.

Has the military showed up at your polling place yet??

Porteroso said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Gruvin said:

---

Here they come!

---

I understand few of us trust all the polls, but if they are right that independents lean Biden and there will be more GOP crossovers to Biden than vice versa, what do you think today's party ID margin must be in FL? Thanks again for all your info and analysis.

---

What I'm hearing is that 75-90% of the Republicans jumping to support Biden are in the 18-24 age range, while 60-75% of the Democrats supporting Trump are in the 35-49 age range. Available data indicates that only 3% of all early voters are in the 18-24 age range, but there is no clear consensus on what percentage is in the 35-49 age range.

FWIW

---

I'd love to know how many Democrats will vote Trump lol, sure there have to be some, but hardly any.

Biden/Harris might be awful, but it's time to give a different awful a chance at being less awful. It's sad politics is like this, but this election will show that America is just ready for something different.

---

Like trying cyanide to get the taste of cheap beer out of your mouth?

donnie dewshtch

Oldbear83 said:

---

Porteroso said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

sombear said:

---

Gruvin said:

---

Here they come!

---

I understand few of us trust all the polls, but if they are right that independents lean Biden and there will be more GOP crossovers to Biden than vice versa, what do you think today's party ID margin must be in FL? Thanks again for all your info and analysis.

---

What I'm hearing is that 75-90% of the Republicans jumping to support Biden are in the 18-24 age range, while 60-75% of the Democrats supporting Trump are in the 35-49 age range. Available data indicates that only 3% of all early voters are in the 18-24 age range, but there is no clear consensus on what percentage is in the 35-49 age range.

FWIW

---

I'd love to know how many Democrats will vote Trump lol, sure there have to be some, but hardly any.

Biden/Harris might be awful, but it's time to give a different awful a chance at being less awful. It's sad politics is like this, but this election will show that America is just ready for something different.

---

Like trying cyanide to get the taste of cheap beer out of your mouth?

---

Project much? More like we've gotten a bunch of miller lite shoved down our throats for 4 years, and bud lite might be just as bad, but why not give it a chance?

I truly don't like the Biden Harris ticket, but the way Trump/Pence mishandled the pandemic has been a disaster. You still have conservative radicals protesting face coverings, and it all started at the top. Pence was refusing to even meet with anyone who was wearing a mask. Let that sink in, not only would he not wear one, he wouldn't do his Constitutional duty if someone else was. Trump repeatedly denies science, and one look at this board tells you how horrific it is, when the leader of the free world is reinforcing that level of ignorance and backwardsness.

Trump's bark has been worse than his bite, but unfortunately, the neo-Nazi movement, the white supremecists of America, have heard his bark, and responded. It's not his policy we will spend years undoing, it's his effect upon society. He has intentionally divided America, a violation of his oath of office.

Biden/Harris will also be divisive, will try to enact policy I disagree with, but they just have to be slightly less horrific, and they'll at least be an improvement.

America will survive any bad policy, but only if we are united. Being so divided is far worse than any bad policy the Dems have up their sleeve.

Booray said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Booray said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Booray said:

---

You guys are missing it. Trump is going to be sunk by a wave of suburban women and any of their husbands who: (1) can't lie convincingly and (2) want to get laid some time in the next four years.

I am hazarding a guess that one reason this board skews towards Trump is that it is almost all male. The gender gap in this race is going to be gigantic.

---

Intimidation by your foot soldiers will work on many white women ,

No doubt in your mind the end justifies the means .

---

Tiresome.

---

Deflection

---

Not going to engage in insults today. Your misery will be big enough.

---

That is exactly what you wish to bring to others.......your misery.

Gruvin said:

---

Here they come!

---

I am not as deep in the weeds as some of you are, but this article (https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/elections/fl-ne-florida-trump-biden-mail-early-election-eve-20201102-fm3kl6eagvdu7lnwiyyqfbgsby-story.html) suggests that the problem with this surface analysis is that it ignores the 1.9 million votes casts by independents, who by all accounts, favor Biden considerably.

The expected Republican election day advantage has to overcome not just the Democratic vote cast advantage pre-election day, but any advantage the Democrats have from independents, both pre and on election day.

Booray said:

---

Gruvin said:

---

Here they come!

---

I am not as deep in the weeds as some of you are, but this article (https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/elections/fl-ne-florida-trump-biden-mail-early-election-eve-20201102-fm3kl6eagvdu7lnwiyyqfbgsby-story.html) suggests that the problem with this surface analysis is that it ignores the 1.9 million votes casts by independents, who by all accounts, favor Biden considerably.

The expected Republican election day advantage has to overcome not just the Democratic vote cast advantage pre-election day, but any advantage the Democrats have from independents, both pre and on election day.

---

R+100k over Dem ballots in FL now... trust me , i am accouting for the IND. that is 215k GOP ballors so far today more than Dem ballots

Booray said:

---

Gruvin said:

---

Here they come!

---

I am not as deep in the weeds as some of you are, but this article (https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/elections/fl-ne-florida-trump-biden-mail-early-election-eve-20201102-fm3kl6eagvdu7lnwiyyqfbgsby-story.html) suggests that the problem with this surface analysis is that it ignores the 1.9 million votes casts by independents, who by all accounts, favor Biden considerably.

The expected Republican election day advantage has to overcome not just the Democratic vote cast advantage pre-election day, but any advantage the Democrats have from independents, both pre and on election day.

---

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think they take the independents and split them based on the voting tendency of the county they're in. It's probably not exactly that, but generally I's in Miami Dade would be allocated more to Dems and I's in the panhandle would be allocated more to R's. It's certainly not perfect, but it at least gets the turnout in the right places.

I also don't think it's a sure thing Biden has a large lead in I's. Maybe a lead, but not something crazy big.

Ski8103 said:

---

Booray said:

---

Gruvin said:

---

Here they come!

---

I am not as deep in the weeds as some of you are, but this article (https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/elections/fl-ne-florida-trump-biden-mail-early-election-eve-20201102-fm3kl6eagvdu7lnwiyyqfbgsby-story.html) suggests that the problem with this surface analysis is that it ignores the 1.9 million votes casts by independents, who by all accounts, favor Biden considerably.

The expected Republican election day advantage has to overcome not just the Democratic vote cast advantage pre-election day, but any advantage the Democrats have from independents, both pre and on election day.

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Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think they take the independents and split them based on the voting tendency of the county they're in. It's probably not exactly that, but generally I's in Miami Dade would be allocated more to Dems and I's in the panhandle would be allocated more to R's. It's certainly not perfect, but it at least gets the turnout in the right places.

I also don't think it's a sure thing Biden has a large lead in I's. Maybe a lead, but not something crazy big.

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Yep, that's right! Hell, he's got in so in the bag, he can win this election from his basement

Early morning turnout in Clark County, NV: 16,360

9:32am

Dems 4,455
Reps 6,809 (+2,354)
Other 5,096

Have the "other" or "independent" numbers ever been this high?

I think that's what makes this election so unpredictable and the polls likely fairly useless. Where is all this turnout coming from?

Porteroso said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Porteroso said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Gruvin said:

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Here they come!

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I understand few of us trust all the polls, but if they are right that independents lean Biden and there will be more GOP crossovers to Biden than vice versa, what do you think today's party ID margin must be in FL? Thanks again for all your info and analysis.

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What I'm hearing is that 75-90% of the Republicans jumping to support Biden are in the 18-24 age range, while 60-75% of the Democrats supporting Trump are in the 35-49 age range. Available data indicates that only 3% of all early voters are in the 18-24 age range, but there is no clear consensus on what percentage is in the 35-49 age range.

FWIW

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I'd love to know how many Democrats will vote Trump lol, sure there have to be some, but hardly any.

Biden/Harris might be awful, but it's time to give a different awful a chance at being less awful. It's sad politics is like this, but this election will show that America is just ready for something different.

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Like trying cyanide to get the taste of cheap beer out of your mouth?

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Project much? More like we've gotten a bunch of miller lite shoved down our throats for 4 years, and bud lite might be just as bad, but why not give it a chance?

Trump's bark has been worse than his bite, but unfortunately, the neo-Nazi movement, the white supremecists of America, have heard his bark, and responded. It's not his policy we will spend years undoing, it's his effect upon society. He has intentionally divided America, a violation of his oath of office.

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Project much?

Porteroso said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Porteroso said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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sombear said:

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Gruvin said:

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Here they come!

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I understand few of us trust all the polls, but if they are right that independents lean Biden and there will be more GOP crossovers to Biden than vice versa, what do you think today's party ID margin must be in FL? Thanks again for all your info and analysis.

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What I'm hearing is that 75-90% of the Republicans jumping to support Biden are in the 18-24 age range, while 60-75% of the Democrats supporting Trump are in the 35-49 age range. Available data indicates that only 3% of all early voters are in the 18-24 age range, but there is no clear consensus on what percentage is in the 35-49 age range.

FWIW

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I'd love to know how many Democrats will vote Trump lol, sure there have to be some, but hardly any.

Biden/Harris might be awful, but it's time to give a different awful a chance at being less awful. It's sad politics is like this, but this election will show that America is just ready for something different.

---

Like trying cyanide to get the taste of cheap beer out of your mouth?

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Project much? More like we've gotten a bunch of miller lite shoved down our throats for 4 years, and bud lite might be just as bad, but why not give it a chance?

I truly don't like the Biden Harris ticket, but the way Trump/Pence mishandled the pandemic has been a disaster. You still have conservative radicals protesting face coverings, and it all started at the top. Pence was refusing to even meet with anyone who was wearing a mask. Let that sink in, not only would he not wear one, he wouldn't do his Constitutional duty if someone else was. Trump repeatedly denies science, and one look at this board tells you how horrific it is, when the leader of the free world is reinforcing that level of ignorance and backwardsness.

Trump's bark has been worse than his bite, but unfortunately, the neo-Nazi movement, the white supremecists of America, have heard his bark, and responded. It's not his policy we will spend years undoing, it's his effect upon society. He has intentionally divided America, a violation of his oath of office.

Biden/Harris will also be divisive, will try to enact policy I disagree with, but they just have to be slightly less horrific, and they'll at least be an improvement.

America will survive any bad policy, but only if we are united. Being so divided is far worse than any bad policy the Dems have up their sleeve.

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We all need to simply accept that unity cannot be achieved in the absence of instruments of unity. The best we can do is fight tooth and nail against the enemy that is the CRT-infused regressive left for however long it takes to defeat them. There can be no compromise, only capitulation one way or the other. Accept it.

This site which updates every 20 minutes assumes Dems win I's by 1.5%.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Some Dems vote for Trump which gives him lead over Biden. Trump wins Florida

Ski8103 said:

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Booray said:

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Gruvin said:

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Here they come!

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I am not as deep in the weeds as some of you are, but this article (https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/elections/fl-ne-florida-trump-biden-mail-early-election-eve-20201102-fm3kl6eagvdu7lnwiyyqfbgsby-story.html) suggests that the problem with this surface analysis is that it ignores the 1.9 million votes casts by independents, who by all accounts, favor Biden considerably.

The expected Republican election day advantage has to overcome not just the Democratic vote cast advantage pre-election day, but any advantage the Democrats have from independents, both pre and on election day.

---

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think they take the independents and split them based on the voting tendency of the county they're in. It's probably not exactly that, but generally I's in Miami Dade would be allocated more to Dems and I's in the panhandle would be allocated more to R's. It's certainly not perfect, but it at least gets the turnout in the right places.

I also don't think it's a sure thing Biden has a large lead in I's. Maybe a lead, but not something crazy big.

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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers

That doesn't seem like a blowout to me; could change as the day goes along but if the GOP registered vote advantage ends up under 2% and over 23% of the voters are not registered with either party, that says anyone's ball game.

Also says the polls were pretty dead on in Florida, which I think would be a problem for DJT even if he wins Florida.

Any links to Texas election day turnout?

Have they announced a winner yet?