The Breakdown: Big 12 Bowl Possibilities & Strength of Potential Opponents

Given the reception these articles have received in the past I decided to put out another article detailing where Big 12 teams might go, how the selection process works, and who they might face when they get there.

8 Big 12 Teams Bowling - Where Can They Go & How Good Are Who They Face?

With bowl season it can be hard to predict matchups. Even after you dissect the rules and requirements around playoff matchups and the rotating bowls which may be contracted with different conferences in the other New Year’s Six games you then have an assortment of contracts with each conference for each bowl they partner with. This article sets out to make sense of the possible matchups and the strength of the opponents.

For the bowl-eligible teams, it’s going to depend a little on what happens on title game weekend except for one team. Nothing will be perfectly clear here until the playoff is picked and the New Year’s six bowls are all settled. However, we can make some projections knowing what we know so far.

Big 12 Pecking Order

Knowing the above information, we need to look at what the Big 12 tie-ins are and where Baylor may fall. Below is the Big 12 selection order.

New Year’s Six: This includes the playoff bowls, Sugar Bowl, and Cotton Bowl. In all but the rarest scenarios both TCU and KSU make it in. One of the two will be in the Sugar Bowl. Only filling one spot is unlikely but possible in remote scenarios. There are unique contracts we’ll dive into there.

Once the New Year’s Six bowls are set, the bowls that contract directly with the Big 12 pick. This no longer depends on rankings or standings. If a bowl wants a bowl-eligible team and they haven’t been picked the bowl is free to do so regardless of record or head-to-head. If they want to jump a 9-3 Texas for a 6-6 OU they can do so. It’s up to the bowls so things like TV draw, likely fan attendance, ticket sales, and other things add up here. Also, they will be reluctant to show repeats of prior bowl season matchups or destinations or repeats of regular season matchups.

• Alamo Bowl - San Antonio (Big 12 vs Pac 12)
• Cheez-It Bowl - Orlando (Big 12 vs ACC)
• Texas Bowl - Houston (Big 12 vs SEC)
• Liberty Bowl - Memphis (Big 12 vs SEC)
• Guaranteed Rate Bowl - Phoenix (Big 12 vs Big Ten)
• Rotates Between Armed Forces Bowl or First Responder Bowl If Needed (Multiple options for each) - DFW

Possible Matchups

Each potential game will have an explanation of the process on each side and a comparison of yards per drive for each team compared to what other teams against their schedule averaged. Most of these except for G5 teams will be looking only at P5 games. G5 teams will look at FBS games. If you have trouble seeing the entire chart you can click on the chart and get a bigger view.

The Playoff If TCU Wins

TCU is unbeaten. There are three unbeaten FBS schools and each is Power-5. If TCU wins they go to the playoff. This is academic. If they go they’ll almost certainly face one of the following schools since A&M beat LSU, South Carolina took out both Clemson and Tennessee, and since Oregon lost the Civil War to OSU. If they win they’ll go to either the Fiesta or Peach Bowl which are the semifinal locations this year.

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Potential Fiesta or Peach Bowl Opponents

UGA has been the most dominant by far. Surprisingly the Michigan offense has been more dominant than their defense but they are almost a lock to be in as well. After that USC brings the worst defense of the contenders but in Lincoln Riley fashion they shred people on offense. If TCU or USC falters there’s a good chance Ohio State sneaks in or Alabama possibly. Bama has a tougher schedule but Ohio State’s numbers are stronger here on this chart.

If TCU Loses...

If they lose it’s 99% chance of a Cotton Bowl berth. This year the Rose, Orange, and Sugar are the other 3 non-playoff bowls in the New Year’s Six rotation. This means the Big Ten vs Pac 12, Big 12 vs SEC, and the ACC vs one of the SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame is all locked in. A TCU that loses the conference title isn’t a candidate for any of them. However, the Cotton Bowl would be where they could and probably do end up falling to.

Who would they play? The New Year’s Six has to annually reserve one spot for the top champion of one of the AAC, MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, or Sun Belt. This spot cannot go anywhere other than the Cotton Bowl this year. It’s going to be the top-ranked team in the playoff rankings. Considering both AAC title participants were ranked higher than any other team eligible for this spot and they both play each other this spot will go to the Tulane vs UCF winner.

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Potential Cotton Bowl Opponents

There is a TCU apocalypse scenario where they fall to the Alamo Bowl. It would take both TCU and USC losing and probably UGA losing as well. The far-fetched idea is that with LSU taking the Sugar we see Tennessee in Miami and then USC edges TCU out for the Cotton with a slightly higher ranking by the committee likely needing a KSU blowout win and a narrow USC loss. I see it as extremely unlikely to say the least and you’d need things to happen perfectly to drop the Frogs but in the interest of gaming out all the scenarios I had to mention it.

The One We Know - KSU

If the Big 12 champion fails to make the playoff they are automatically slotted to the Sugar Bowl against the best available team from the SEC. If the Big 12 champion makes the playoff, the next team in the Big 12 standings goes to the Sugar Bowl. Kansas State is going to be in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl, whether they beat TCU and go as Big 12 champion or if they lose and go as the second-highest team in the Big 12 standings. They are going there since I don’t see any way TCU doesn’t go to the playoff if they go unbeaten.

Now on the other side of the game, you have the SEC. They pick their team a little differently and instead of a replacement team coming from the league standings it comes from the next highest-ranked team by the playoff committee. 

The SEC title features No. 1 Georgia vs previously No. 5 LSU who’s going to drop in tonight’s rankings. If LSU wins they won’t make the playoff with 3 losses and will go to the Sugar Bowl. However, if Georgia wins the SEC title game they will be in the playoff and may very well end up there even with a loss.

If UGA wins, the next highest-ranked team (No. 7 Bama in last week’s rankings and sure to move up after LSU lost again) figures to be the SEC representative and I don’t see much chance for previously No. 10 Tennessee (who will move up after No. 5, No. 8, and No. 9 all lost) to jump them. That said just for more fun with data... I included them just in case some random unlikely trainwreck of USC and TCU getting beat by 40 each lets both Bama and UGA in the playoff. Barring that it’s going to take the playoff committee angering the state of Alabama more than Finebaum’s show ever has by randomly jumping the Vols over the Tide when neither play this weekend and both beat 5-7 teams last week.

However, in all realistic scenarios, it’s Bama or LSU with the Vols going to Miami’s Orange Bowl to face the Clemson/UNC winner of the ACC title game. How do the hypothetical opponents stack up? Tennessee has the best offense and worst defense. Bama has the best defense and the least impressive offense. LSU is in the middle with an offense that is strong but the defense is pretty similar to what their schedule allows otherwise.

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Potential Sugar Bowl Opponents

Non-New Years Six

Now we dive into the bowls where whoever is next to pick can pick any bowl-eligible Big 12 team regardless of record or head-to-head result.

The opposing conferences have different rules and contracts. Some have limitations on the bowls, others don’t. Some basically pick which bowls get which teams from their conference for certain groups of games. It’s all different.

Alamo Bowl (Big 12 vs Pac 12)

The Alamo Bowl picks next. It has the first pick after the NY6 is done and has a few options. Assuming the 99% chance that the TCU apocalypse scenario is avoided the strongest record, brand, and fanbase remaining would be UT and the only reluctance would be that UT was there in 2019 and 2020. If the Alamo doesn’t want to take them yet again they might reach for Tech, OSU, or Baylor since they’d draw well there and OU was just there last year. I would be surprised if KU was taken here. I expect we’ll see UT in San Antonio.

On the other side of the matchup, the PAC 12 uses a draft order like the Big 12 does and the Alamo gets their top pick after the New Year’s Six. However, the PAC 12 has one extra criterion: the bowls can only take a team with a lower league record if it’s a difference of one game. So a team that went 5-4 in league play can jump 6-3 but they cannot jump a team that went 7-2. Based on this, the possible options are listed below which is everyone but Wazzu. (I am not sure if the title game counts on the one-game criteria or if the pre-bowl number is used)

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Potential Alamo Bowl Opponents

At least one of USC or Utah will be in the New Year’s Six and possibly both. The Utes are the only team that looks really strong on both sides of the ball. Oregon State looks strong on defense but weaker on offense. The rest are more offense heavy. I expect the title game loser or one of Oregon and Washington to end up here.

Cheez-It Bowl (Big 12 vs ACC or Notre Dame)

The ACC’s top pick after the New Year's Six almost always is the Cheez-It Bowl. UNC and Clemson will play the ACC title game and the winner goes to the Orange Bowl. The loser of that matchup figures to be in the mix here alongside Notre Dame and Florida State. I included any 8+ win ACC team below but I will be shocked if any of the other teams jump over an available Clemson, UNC, ND, or FSU. I don’t think Clemson goes since they played ISU there last year but their losing the ACC title game would prevent Notre Dame since ND cannot be taken over a team with 2 more wins than the 8-4 Irish and the hypothetically 10-3 Tigers would be just that. I think we’ll see FSU, UNC, or ND.

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Potential Cheez-It Bowl Opponents

Depending on what the Alamo does I could see them go for a number of teams. Texas and Oklahoma would travel really well if available. I think Texas Tech, OSU, or KU might also get the call given how likely those fanbases are to travel. If UNC and UT are there I could see a Mack Brown vs Texas matchup.

Texas Bowl & Liberty Bowl (Big 12 vs SEC)

These two pick next in this order and use the same selection processes. SEC teams have a unique bowl selection. After the New Year’s Six has filled their bowl slots the Citrus Bowl picks first out of the remaining bowl-eligible teams. Then it all gets somewhat unpredictable. There is a pool of six bowls where the SEC "in consultation with the institutions and the bowls" will make the assignments for all six games out of the eligible teams. Both the Texas Bowl and Liberty Bowl fall into this group. Basically, the SEC hand-picks their group of matchups and as a result, it could be any number of teams and figures to favor them. Below are the SEC bowl-eligible teams that I do not expect to make the NY6.

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Potential Texas Bowl or Liberty Bowl Opponents

Out of these, you see some interesting teams. Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Florida both have stronger offenses than their schedule otherwise sees but weaker defenses. Mizzou, UK, and surprisingly Mike Leach’s Mississippi State Bulldogs have strong defenses and less productive offenses. South Carolina is coming in hot off of back-to-back upsets of top-ten Tennessee and Clemson but statistically hasn’t been strong relative to their schedule in yards per drive. Their nearly 60 yards per drive against Tennessee was a significant outlier from the 26 they averaged in their other P5 games.

The Texas Bowl is the worst-case for UT but I think Bevo is scooped up by now. The Texas Bowl probably jumps all over whichever of Baylor, Tech, OU, or OSU are available. On the other side, I could see either Mississippi school, Arkansas, or Mizzou as likely.

The Liberty Bowl is where I think KU or OU might get a lot of attention. Potential interesting matchups with KU-Mizzou or OU vs Spencer Rattler’s Gamecocks might be enticing. I could also see Baylor settle here as BU-Arkansas has been projected on numerous sites. I don’t see Tech here or MSU here since that was last year’s matchup. I think Arkansas, Ole Miss, or Mizzou are likely here.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Big 12 vs Big Ten)

The Big Ten has a ranked order system and the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix (formerly the Cactus Bowl) is 7th on their list. So their top three of Michigan, OSU, and PSU are going to be long gone. After that, they try to slot them so teams don’t go to the same place and will allow some record jumping to do so. Based on this it’s extremely unlikely we see Minnesota who was there last year. The possible options are below:

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Potential Guaranteed Rate Bowl Opponents

The two I have seen projected the most are Maryland and Wisconsin. Maryland and Purdue are the two offense-heavy teams here with less capable defense statistically while Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin are stronger defenses with less than elite offensive production. Minnesota probably going elsewhere is likely good for the Big 12.

As for which Big 12 team ends up here, it could be anyone still left.

Armed Forces/First Responder

I am not entirely sure which of these bowls is going to be in the rotation this year. The Armed Forces Bowl is at TCU’s stadium and the First Responder Bowl is at SMU’s stadium. The selection process for each is way down the pecking order.

Each has the Big 12 against some combination of G5 schools, service academies, or BYU. 

Since ESPN owns all of these smaller bowls they basically can trade things around for matchups. I’ve seen each of these teams projected to one of these bowls. Air Force, Army (if they beat Navy), BYU, SMU, Rice, Houston, Western Kentucky, Memphis, UCF, UTSA, and Fresno State.

Of these the toughest draws are probably BYU, Air Force, Houston, UCF, UTSA, and Fresno. You’ve got 7-5 BYU who played 4 P5 schools, Notre Dame, Liberty, and Boise State for a de-facto P5 schedule, three title game participants, and two teams just narrowly missing that cutoff for a title game.

I’m not doing a breakdown of teams here since there are too many options but I will follow up with more in-depth snapshots of all the Big 12 bowls. I do think they’ll avoid repeat matchups like BYU-Baylor, UH-KU, or UH-Tech.

If the Big 12 Needs An Extra Bowl

If TCU somehow falls out of the NY6 in the apocalypse 1% scenario the Big 12 would have 7 bowls for 8 teams. I think ESPN would have a landing spot for the leftover team since they own so many bowls and the Big 12 is better for business than the G5 schools in general but I am not sure what would happen contractually.

Questions and Answers

Where Does Baylor End Up?

My guess is that Baylor ends up in one of the Texas Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Guaranteed Rate Bowl, or the two DFW Bowls. I think they’ll avoid matching Baylor against Ole Miss or BYU.

Which opponent that you are assessing would be the best matchup for us?

I don’t have a true answer for that without film study.

This is being done without film study so it’s just a glance at the numbers and general perception of what I’ve casually seen. The ones I mentioned above that jump to mind for the non-NY6 bowls would be Oregon State, Duke, South Carolina, Arkansas, Maryland, and then the weaker matchups in the DFW bowls I didn’t call out as tough draws. However, not all of these are likely selections.

Liberty bowl lock??

Not a lock at all. The Bears may end up there but I can see the Texas Bowl possibly jumping on BU and I can see the Liberty possibly passing on BU especially if the right matchup falls in their lap.

If you were putting $100 bucks on it in Vegas, what bowl are we playing in? We will know you really believe it when you post your Southwest airline tickets to said event! 

I don’t have a strong enough opinion but I’d guess Houston, Memphis, or Phoenix would be most likely. BU’s recent run of success probably keeps them out of the bottom pick and possibly gets them higher than I think. However, also factoring in is the struggles with a backloaded schedule and the weaker record than expected’s impact on fan enthusiasm.

What hotel do you recommend we book, for each location we have as a bowl possibility?

Usually, SicEm365 has a travel deal set up. I’d recommend following that as it’s been fun when I attended.

It will be interesting to see who goes where once championship weekend is over. Once we know for sure I’ll have a statistical snapshot on each Big 12 game. The Big 12 has the potential to make some noise in the bowl season. In addition to two likely NY6 matchups the league also has the chance to get 2023 addition UCF into the Cotton Bowl, can face some stout ACC and Pac 12 teams, and can draw interesting matchups against the SEC and Big Ten.

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