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Baylor Football

How Much Exposure Can We Expect From Conference TV Deals?

June 27, 2023
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A few weeks back some technically accurate statistics were tweeted out by Bryan Fischer of FOX Sports (who also has worked for the PAC-12 Networks and covered USC) that really didn’t highlight how visible different leagues are.

In it he looks at:

  • Just the first three weeks
  • Lumps all cable together regardless of how much distribution a channel has
  • Doesn’t limit the sample to home games which is what a given league TV deal will control.

To be fair, Fischer isn’t saying much beyond “here are the numbers” and much of what was discussed after was others running with what he posted to draw wild and out-of-context conclusions including but not limited to “the Big 12 is going to have 40% streaming!”.


Is The Big 12 To Expect 39% Streaming And To Be Way Behind The Other P5’s?

No. Not close to that.  A few things need to be considered here.

1 - September Has Basically All The Weak Non-Conference Games For ESPN+

The Big 12 (and SEC) are really front-loaded on their streaming games. The weakest non-conference matchups tend to fit there and they usually are September-heavy. The two leagues had 71% of their streaming games before October. Only 5 games in 2022 were ESPN+ games for the Big 12 after September.

2 - Streaming Isn’t The Only Less Than Ideal Distribution Method

Other leagues benefit from low-distribution cable networks or from regional syndication which isn’t always ideal either. Below are the P5 leagues and the G5s with ESPN+ as a part of their deal with the games in 2022 that they had on any of these three delivery methods grouped by before or after the start of October. The Big 12 holds up really well overall and in particular in the last half of the season.

The ACC has a small syndication deal that gets tossed in alongside 3-4 streaming games while the under 15M subscriber PAC-12 Network hurts the PAC-12 here. For context, ESPN+ has around 25M subscribers.

As an extra, I included the three scheduled games on Peacock for the Big Ten in 2023 out of the eight they contract for as it’s the first deal of the new contracts to have a definite number that varies from the past. It gives a better picture of them going forward.

3 - The Total Percentage Of Home Games With Less Visibility Isn’t That High

In 2022 the Big 12 had 19 games that fell below the main TV contract to either Longhorn Network (2 games) or the streaming service ESPN+. That’s roughly 2 games per school and around 28% of the Big 12’s 2022 inventory of 67 games. Since the only other games in their contract almost always go on ABC, FOX, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, or FS1 that means 72% were very widely visible on most cable systems and unless it’s one or two games that fall to ESPNU it’s visible on 90+% of cable homes.


What Would Be A Better Way To Look At League Exposure?

A better way to look at it is inventory distributed by each method and grouped by availability. When people look at streaming as a percentage it’s usually in the context of assuming something with much more reach is the comparison. So let’s take it a step further and differentiate between how visible each network is.

I have grouped each league’s expected home inventory by network type. I took the distribution numbers from the following two sources for cable networks and took the best number for each channel.

  1. SBJ gives beginning and end of 2022 subscriber counts for Nielsen networks
  2. Bryan Fischer tweeted out S&P Kagan numbers for several networks
  3. I did find a competing number for CBS Sports Network that was lower at 55M and informally was told it was around 50M

I have grouped them into:

  • ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS: Your standard OTA network TV that hit almost every home (122M HH) and have a history of broadcasting college football.
  • Around 90% of Multichannel (Cable) Homes or More: This is ESPN, ESPN2, and FS1 all coming in around 93-94%.
  • Around 66% of Multichannel Homes: CBS Sports Network, FS2, SEC Network, BTN, and NFL Network.
  • Around 50% of Multichannel Homes: ESPNU & ACC Network
  • Regional TV/Streaming/Syndication: Options that aren’t as nationally consistent as the above. Regional & Syndication can be up and down while many streaming services like ESPN+ or AppleTV+ have a subscriber count on par with 1/3 of multichannel homes. Amazon is bigger but again it’s not to the point casual viewership is likely.
  • Less Than 20% of Multichannel Homes: PAC-12 Network
  • BYUtv or Longhorn Network: Networks that are pretty visible for the fanbase headlining the channel but won’t pull in casual viewers nationally very often. 

From here it’s represented as a percentage of the total home game inventory for the league in a stacked bar chart with the better distribution methods in darkest green and the worst in deep red.


How Did The Leagues Distribute Games In 2022?

Below we have the Power 5 conferences along with Notre Dame and BYU’s 3-year average for a more representative sample of what they’ve had in recent years. We see that the Big Ten was the most available with the most games on OTA networks and zero on streaming, syndication, or a low visibility network in the prior TV deal. The SEC had great visibility with only 14% on streaming and 38% on their 50M plus SEC network. The rest were either CBS or an ESPN cable channel. The Big 12 and ACC were neck and neck for No. 3. The argument for the ACC is with the Big 12 having more games on streaming than the ACC had either streamed or syndicated. The argument for the Big 12 is that a higher percentage of games were available on widely distributed channels -- all but 31% of games available to 90% of multichannel subscribers -- and a greater percentage of games were on ABC & FOX compared to the ACC.

SicEm365
2022 League Exposure By Channel Subscribers (Click To Expand)

The PAC-12 had great exposure with ABC, FOX, ESPN, ESPN2, and FS1 for all but one of its top 44 games which fell to ESPNU. However, the PAC-12 Network is making exposure difficult for the bottom half of its inventory and is among the worst distributed options. ESPN+ has around 10M more subscribers than the PAC-12 Network.

Notre Dame is getting tons of exposure with six games on NBC and one game on Peacock, NBC’s streaming option. BYU averaged roughly 5 games on their ABC/ESPN contract with one on ABC, 2 on ESPN, and 2 on either ESPN2 or ESPNU. One per year fell to BYU TV which has a ton of reach. Their 2022 season was all ESPN or ESPN2 before they hit a similar total on BYUtv. Rather than portray a scenario where they never had ABC games or never fell to ESPNU I chose to use the more representative 3-year sample.

In the Group of 5, the American Athletic Conference and the Mountain West were the leaders. They each had 30-36% of games fall below the main TV deals with ABC/ESPN or FOX/CBS. Granted each had a lot of this on either ESPN2/ESPNU or CBS College Sports but their exposure on linear dwarfs the Sun Belt and MAC while those two have much better tier-one distribution than CUSA did.

SicEm365
2022 League Exposure By Channel Subscribers In G5 Leagues (Click to Expand)

UCONN carved out a modest exposure with CBS Sports Network on cable for most of their games while Army getting a game on big CBS and the rest on CBSSN gave them exposure on par with the better G5 leagues.


How Do The League Deals Project Going Forward?

I made an attempt to estimate how the shifting deals would impact the percentages for each league. I can elaborate further but in the interest of keeping this from getting even longer, I plan to post the rationale for what games shifted to which leagues below in the thread replies.

The Big Ten is probably the best off with the most games on established OTA networks, the fewest on streaming, and over 90% available to over 50M homes. The SEC is right behind them however with a deal that will look pretty similar to before except ABC replaces CBS.

SicEm365
Future League Exposure By Channel Subscribers (Click To Expand)

The Big 12 figures to be third as they have only around 30% on streaming but also project to have a solid distribution of games on OTA or on 70M+ subscriber channels. Given both FOX and ABC/ESPN are down in inventory (assuming neither gets 22 games from the PAC) it’s reasonable for the Big 12 to get similar window counts to before and pick up the BYU windows that the Cougars routinely carried. I project the Big 12 will take a couple of ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU windows from the AAC after raiding their top three brands.

The ACC has more games on linear but less on OTA and the ACC Network isn’t as widely available as FS1 or ESPN2 and carries much of the ACC’s content. Notre Dame rounds out this group with 6 games on NBC and 1 game on Peacock, NBC’s streaming service.

The PAC-12 is where things get unclear. There are a lot of unknowns here.

  • Will they have to devote a certain amount of inventory to the PAC-12 Network or will they be able to scrap it?
  • If they have to devote a certain amount, is it 36 games per year or just 3 games per school?
  • If they go with a streaming partner (as is appearing likely) will it be all streaming or how much will be sublicensed to a linear partner?
  • If they sublicense, will they need more than 2 games per week?

In the chart, I have projected each new scenario assuming they need only 30 PAC-12 Network games compared to the 36 they usually run (minimum I could guess if they keep it alive) and projected a streaming-only scenario and sublicensing 2 games to ESPN per week (28 games) under 10 and 12 team configurations. Additionally, on the left we have their prior deal as a comparison.

SicEm365
PAC-12 Exposure Scenarios Assuming Streaming Partners

This really illustrates that their overall exposure will struggle but also that if they force a streaming partner to sublicense two games per week to a linear partner they really need to expand to have enough inventory for the streamer to push subscriptions. At ten teams they either have to have fewer than 30 PAC-12 Network games (6 less than prior years already) or they leave very little for their new partner to work with. With only 65 games of estimated inventory, that only leaves 37 for both the streamer and the PAC-12 Network to split, roughly 2.64 per week over 14 weeks. That isn’t a lot to work with and a 12-team setup would allow for 3.57 per week to split.

The G5 reshuffled a bit after the AAC lost three schools to the Big 12 but raided 6 from C-USA while C-USA begins a new deal. The AAC probably keeps a similar but slightly smaller total of games broadcast on the ABC/ESPN networks but as a percentage of a league with five more teams the percentage reaching good networks falls dramatically. This paints the MWC as probably the most exposure-laden league but FS1 also performs poorer than ESPN so it’s a debate.

SicEm365
Projected Exposure Under New G5 Contracts (Click To Expand)

The Sun Belt & MAC will remain similar while CUSA gets 13% on the ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU combo while getting a slightly higher percentage on 66% or so of cable homes. 


How Many Big Viewership Windows Are Set To Each League?

Not all games on ESPN are equal. Being placed in the “After Dark” spot implies 1.66M as an expected viewership. Prime time on a typical Saturday? 3.16M is the expectation and if you get the spotlight game on Labor Day in prime time you can expect just under 5M. Every single game since 2018 that went for over 4M viewers except for two came from windows that are expected to get over 2 million viewers. The exceptions? The Zero Week 2019 UF-Miami game and the 2018 PSU-Michigan game which was on ESPN. So those windows can help a lot to say the least.

So across all networks which leagues have had the best platform for bigger viewership and which ones project to going forward?

SicEm365
2 Million Viewership Window Games By League 2019, 2021, & 2022 averages. (Click to Expand)

In recent years the SEC was out in front while the Big Ten was right on their heels. After that, the Big 12 was a comfortable third with the PAC-12 and ACC neck and neck. The American was the class of the G5 exposure but didn’t have a ton of huge TV windows as Notre Dame alone almost matched them with 6 NBC games annually. The Mountain West’s contractual minimums with FOX & CBS round out the list.


How Do The Big Windows Look Going Forward?

As a result of the new contracts with CBS, NBC, and FOX the Big Ten is getting a TON of high-visibility windows and takes the lead. However, the SEC is right on their heels with 15-16 ABC appearances and a few more big ESPN windows to make up for losing CBS and to account for their expansion with two giant brands.

SicEm365
Projected 2M viewer games by league under new deals. Low & High Expectations. (Click to Expand)

The Big 12 remains at third and simply repeating the average games on ABC or FOX they had gets us our low expectation. Even taking away the ESPN window they had prior is enough to outpace the rest. The extreme range of upside is because of how vacated FOX may be without the PAC-12. The Big Ten has 14-15 FOX games in the Big Noon slot but the Big Ten’s OTA games appear to be exclusive to NBC in prime time and CBS in the afternoon under the new deal once it starts rolling in 2024. Assuming that is true there are 14 weeks of afternoon spots and 7-8 prime-time spots up for grabs. The potential upside in the chart above assumes the Big 12 fills 9 of that 21-22 game availability.

The ACC is 4th and leaps over the PAC-12. I have them swiping one of the PAC’s ABC games and one of the AAC’s games now that three of their best have moved on.

After Notre Dame who still has their six games on NBC we see the American down 1 big window after losing two but gaining one ESPN game from the PAC. The MWC is one game up as they take a FOX game from available spots.

The PAC-12 is in a difficult spot unless ABC/ESPN, FOX, CBS, or NBC do a deal with them with contracted games in big windows. Streaming games won’t have these audience averages. If they sublicense can they get the windows on an OTA station or key windows for ESPN? It’s at best unreliable and unlikely. A streamer could sublicense to the CW as has been rumored but the CW had very underperforming numbers with LIV Golf so how much viewership are we to expect? I placed them at 3 games due to the unreliable nature of sublicensing out of a deal that figures to have a heavy streaming lead. There are plenty of options that can sublicense games (ESPN, FS1, NFL Network, Turner, CW) but it’s pretty unpredictable and not a ton of them are likely to be big windows either by reach, time slot, or by odds of casual viewership.


Conclusion

These deals can be complicated to track and while the Big Ten and SEC are running away with the best visibility it’s clear that there’s still an opportunity for the Big 12 and ACC to get significant exposure with their current contracts. The PAC-12 needs to work out a deal with some of the established players to get the kind of exposure the rest of the P5 is going to get. There is also a giant gap between any of the P5 and what we’ll see the G5 get.

 

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Discussion from...

How Much Exposure Can We Expect From Conference TV Deals?

13,101 Views | 17 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by FLBear5630
S11
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In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
S11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
S11
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Staff
FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.


Yeah, I am not seeing anything imininet. Just that they are voicing concern, typically first step...
bear2be2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.


Yeah, I am not seeing anything imininet. Just that they are voicing concern, typically first step...
That's all saber rattling. These GOR deals are ironclad, and deep down, everyone knows it. No school is going to spend millions of dollars in court to fight an airtight contract they willingly entered into. You'd just be adding court costs to the prohibitive costs already associated with breaking the GOR and exiting early.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.


Yeah, I am not seeing anything imininet. Just that they are voicing concern, typically first step...
That's all saber rattling. These GOR deals are ironclad, and deep down, everyone knows it. No school is going to spend millions of dollars in court to fight an airtight contract they willingly entered into. You'd just be adding court costs to the prohibitive costs already associated with breaking the GOR and exiting early.


Ok, this is what I love. For the ACC it is Saber rattling? I love these determinations. Anything we want to believe is rock solid, what we don't is Saber rattling.
S11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.


Yeah, I am not seeing anything imininet. Just that they are voicing concern, typically first step...
That's all saber rattling. These GOR deals are ironclad, and deep down, everyone knows it. No school is going to spend millions of dollars in court to fight an airtight contract they willingly entered into. You'd just be adding court costs to the prohibitive costs already associated with breaking the GOR and exiting early.


Ok, this is what I love. For the ACC it is Saber rattling? I love these determinations. Anything we want to believe is rock solid, what we don't is Saber rattling.
It's got very little to do with what someone wants to believe- it's got everything to do with what we've all seen play out.

Look at UT and OU who clearly wanted out much earlier than they got. They only left when the GOR had one year of rights to negotiate a buyback for. They couldn't find a clean way out so they had to wait and negotiate.

Until someone has the stones to challenge this in court it's the logical assumption that these are extremely difficult to break.

Good writeup on it by Dennis Dodd.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/inside-the-big-12s-ironclad-grant-of-rights-contract-that-helped-keep-the-acc-together-amid-turbulence/
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.


Yeah, I am not seeing anything imininet. Just that they are voicing concern, typically first step...
That's all saber rattling. These GOR deals are ironclad, and deep down, everyone knows it. No school is going to spend millions of dollars in court to fight an airtight contract they willingly entered into. You'd just be adding court costs to the prohibitive costs already associated with breaking the GOR and exiting early.


Ok, this is what I love. For the ACC it is Saber rattling? I love these determinations. Anything we want to believe is rock solid, what we don't is Saber rattling.
It's got very little to do with what someone wants to believe- it's got everything to do with what we've all seen play out.

Look at UT and OU who clearly wanted out much earlier than they got. They only left when the GOR had one year of rights to negotiate a buyback for. They couldn't find a clean way out so they had to wait and negotiate.

Until someone has the stones to challenge this in court it's the logical assumption that these are extremely difficult to break.

Good writeup on it by Dennis Dodd.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/inside-the-big-12s-ironclad-grant-of-rights-contract-that-helped-keep-the-acc-together-amid-turbulence/


My point exactly, what actually plays out. As of today, PAC is still here. Corner schools dread possibility of joining B12 even willing to take less money, schools discussing joining UCONN, Memphis and SDSU, talk of BB only members and the article above. Sorry, lived through Big East destruction steps look eerily similar....
bear2be2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.


Yeah, I am not seeing anything imininet. Just that they are voicing concern, typically first step...
That's all saber rattling. These GOR deals are ironclad, and deep down, everyone knows it. No school is going to spend millions of dollars in court to fight an airtight contract they willingly entered into. You'd just be adding court costs to the prohibitive costs already associated with breaking the GOR and exiting early.


Ok, this is what I love. For the ACC it is Saber rattling? I love these determinations. Anything we want to believe is rock solid, what we don't is Saber rattling.
Your "anyone who actually pays attention to these things is actually an ignorant homer" act is wearing really thin. If you want to take an irrationally negative view of the Big 12's current place in college athletics, that's your prerogative. But your insistence on demeaning others who are clearly paying far closer attention than you to current market realities is getting old.

It's not me saying these things about the Big 12's grant of rights deal, which was the basis for the language of the ACC's GOR. It's the creators of said deal, who have been proven right in their claim on the deal's strength each and every time someone has threatened to challenge it before inevitably backing down.

I'll believe one of these GOR deals can be broken when one is. So far, several of the wealthiest and most tradition-rich programs in the country have told us through their actions that their lawyers couldn't/can't find a way out of the contracts they willingly signed years prior that's not cost-prohibitive.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.


Yeah, I am not seeing anything imininet. Just that they are voicing concern, typically first step...
That's all saber rattling. These GOR deals are ironclad, and deep down, everyone knows it. No school is going to spend millions of dollars in court to fight an airtight contract they willingly entered into. You'd just be adding court costs to the prohibitive costs already associated with breaking the GOR and exiting early.


Ok, this is what I love. For the ACC it is Saber rattling? I love these determinations. Anything we want to believe is rock solid, what we don't is Saber rattling.
Your "anyone who actually pays attention to these things is actually an ignorant homer" act is wearing really thin. If you want to take an irrationally negative view of the Big 12's current place in college athletics, that's your prerogative. But your insistence on demeaning others who are clearly posting far closer attention than you to current market realities is getting old.

It's not me saying these things about the Big 12's grant of rights deal, which was the basis for the language of the ACC's GOR. It's the creators of said deal, who have been proven right in their claim on the deal's strength each and every time someone has threatened to challenge it before inevitably backing down.

I'll believe one of these GOR deals can be broken when one is. So far, several of the wealthiest and most tradition-rich programs in the country have told us through their actions that their lawyers can't find a way out of the contracts they willingly signed.


No I don't want to be told it's raining while being pissed on.

There are troubling indications here and if you bring it up you and your cronies go attack dog. You believe UCONN, Memphis and SDSU get us in the playoff? All the while being told we are aiming to be #3? Talking of being the premier BB league? This is Big East ***** Outside of this Board, I am not seeing B12 being pushed.

So your act is wearing thin as well. This trust in Youmark and Mac ****, we are going backward if you look at the production on the field and the Conference moves (UCONN is thr big haul!)
bear2be2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.


Yeah, I am not seeing anything imininet. Just that they are voicing concern, typically first step...
That's all saber rattling. These GOR deals are ironclad, and deep down, everyone knows it. No school is going to spend millions of dollars in court to fight an airtight contract they willingly entered into. You'd just be adding court costs to the prohibitive costs already associated with breaking the GOR and exiting early.


Ok, this is what I love. For the ACC it is Saber rattling? I love these determinations. Anything we want to believe is rock solid, what we don't is Saber rattling.
Your "anyone who actually pays attention to these things is actually an ignorant homer" act is wearing really thin. If you want to take an irrationally negative view of the Big 12's current place in college athletics, that's your prerogative. But your insistence on demeaning others who are clearly posting far closer attention than you to current market realities is getting old.

It's not me saying these things about the Big 12's grant of rights deal, which was the basis for the language of the ACC's GOR. It's the creators of said deal, who have been proven right in their claim on the deal's strength each and every time someone has threatened to challenge it before inevitably backing down.

I'll believe one of these GOR deals can be broken when one is. So far, several of the wealthiest and most tradition-rich programs in the country have told us through their actions that their lawyers can't find a way out of the contracts they willingly signed.


No I don't want to be told it's raining while being pissed on.

There are troubling indications here and if you bring it up you and your cronies go attack dog. You believe UCONN, Memphis and SDSU get us in the playoff? All the while being told we are aiming to be #3? Talking of being the premier BB league? This is Big East ***** Outside of this Board, I am not seeing B12 being pushed.

So your act is wearing thin as well. This trust in Youmark and Mac ****, we are going backward if you look at the production on the field and the Conference moves (UCONN is thr big haul!)
I have no act. The Big 12 has been making lemonade since OUT decided to bounce. But anyone suggesting they haven't made a damn fine pitcher either hasn't been paying attention or is just looking for reasons to *****. In your case, it would appear to be both.

Whether the Big 12 gets PAC-12 schools or not, the league is in much, much better shape than it was this time two years ago, when the consensus nationwide was that the league would be folding imminently.

Today, not only has the conference secured a sustainable existence for the foreseeable future, it currently is in the least peril of any of the mid-level power conferences.

If you want to get on here and mope about that, feel free. But you'll look silly doing so ... particularly when, in doing so, you insult people who have a far stronger grasp on the situation than you.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.


Yeah, I am not seeing anything imininet. Just that they are voicing concern, typically first step...
That's all saber rattling. These GOR deals are ironclad, and deep down, everyone knows it. No school is going to spend millions of dollars in court to fight an airtight contract they willingly entered into. You'd just be adding court costs to the prohibitive costs already associated with breaking the GOR and exiting early.


Ok, this is what I love. For the ACC it is Saber rattling? I love these determinations. Anything we want to believe is rock solid, what we don't is Saber rattling.
Your "anyone who actually pays attention to these things is actually an ignorant homer" act is wearing really thin. If you want to take an irrationally negative view of the Big 12's current place in college athletics, that's your prerogative. But your insistence on demeaning others who are clearly posting far closer attention than you to current market realities is getting old.

It's not me saying these things about the Big 12's grant of rights deal, which was the basis for the language of the ACC's GOR. It's the creators of said deal, who have been proven right in their claim on the deal's strength each and every time someone has threatened to challenge it before inevitably backing down.

I'll believe one of these GOR deals can be broken when one is. So far, several of the wealthiest and most tradition-rich programs in the country have told us through their actions that their lawyers can't find a way out of the contracts they willingly signed.


No I don't want to be told it's raining while being pissed on.

There are troubling indications here and if you bring it up you and your cronies go attack dog. You believe UCONN, Memphis and SDSU get us in the playoff? All the while being told we are aiming to be #3? Talking of being the premier BB league? This is Big East ***** Outside of this Board, I am not seeing B12 being pushed.

So your act is wearing thin as well. This trust in Youmark and Mac ****, we are going backward if you look at the production on the field and the Conference moves (UCONN is thr big haul!)
I have no act. The Big 12 has been making lemonade since OUT decided to bounce. But anyone suggesting they haven't made a damn fine pitcher either hasn't been paying attention or is just looking for reasons to *****. In your case, it would appear to be both.

Whether the Big 12 gets PAC-12 schools or not, the league is in much, much better shape than it was this time two years ago, when the consensus nationwide was that the league would be folding imminently.

Today, not only has the conference secured a sustainable existence for the foreseeable future, it currently is in the least peril of any of the mid-level power conferences.

If you want to get on here and mope about that, feel free. But you'll look silly doing so ... particularly when, in doing so, you insult people who have a far stronger grasp on the situation than you.



Let's unpack that a little. This fine pitcher. Since the OUT move what has been so fine?

TCU getting run off the field? How many B12 schools in the playoff? Who has joined the B12?

This mighty fine pitcher is great for a G5 school, punching above its weight class. But, it is a step down for a P5.

As for the might fine fellows with such a great grasp. They are the ones that attack anyone that disagrees. That is not one persins opinion, how many here left the pay board? Not one thing that have said has come to pass. Name one. So, I question whether their grasp is on realignment. All the data points indicate otherwise, we getting ready to welcome UCONN and Memphis?

These actions whether you like it or not are in line with what the Big East did before becoming a rival of the Atlanytic 10, ask WVU fan. Are we allowed to do that? Or will it upset the fine fellows that really know, maybe one day they will let you in their club.
bear2be2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

FLBear5630 said:

S11 said:

In my projections for the Big 12, SEC, ACC, and AAC I had to consider ESPN and their changing inventory among P5 caliber contracts.

  • They had 27 Big Ten games across ABC & ESPN in the last contract that they have lost since.
  • They also lost the 5 or so games from BYU per year,

That's a difference of 32.

  • The new deal with the SEC brought 15 or 16 back initially
  • Adding Texas and OU will add 14 games to their inventory due to an 8 game conference schedule of which around 7 likely get committed to either ESPN+ (1 per school) or the SEC Network (38% of 2022 games)
The net addition is 22 games roughly.

So ESPN is down 10 games after we account for the SEC.

Where are the Big 12 or ACC potentially get games from beyond this initial deficit?

  • From there the Big 12 is probably a beneficiary as BYU & the top AAC teams are now in the league and willing to play at just as flexible of a schedule as the AAC is.
  • Additionally the AAC has been well above the contractual minimums of 20 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 averaging 25 the last two years.

Why wouldn't ESPN ramp up more ACC games vs Big 12 games? Several reasons.
  • They need content for the ACC Network. Around 20 games are contracted to Raycom for sublicense. In 2022 they had 40 ACC Network games and dipping too far below that will hurt network profits.
  • Any ACC game that they'd move into a TV window would be compared against a Big 12 game that would otherwise go to ESPN+. Ad sales on ACC Network is much greater than that of ESPN+ and that's before being able to use additional games to fill replay slots on the 24 hour network.
  • After their big 3 of FSU/Clemson/Miami along with whoever is playing ND that week is exhausted there isn't a huge rating differential to benefit from. However the more needed content you have- the better your leverage for carriage fee negotiations with a young network that has less reach than it's Big Ten and SEC counterparts.

A worst case for the Big 12 is that their 79 game inventory sees Fox broadcast 26 games on FOX/FS1, ABC.ESPN broadcast 27 (26+Title Game) and stream 26 on ESPN+. However I don't think the economics will push them to stream that full 33%. If you are paying 2x the amount per school FOX is and FOX has a majority of the hoops inventory I struggle to see how you make the dollars work broadcasting fewer games than they do in order to stream more which would provide a lower return.

FOX is easier to track.
  • They have 26 Big 12 games in the new deal. A greater percentage will likely go on big FOX than before because CBS & NBC appear to have exclusivity on OTA channels for the Big Ten in the Afternoon and Prime Time. That leaves around 22 spots to fill on a typical Saturday as their Big Ten games will be in the noon slot.
  • They appear to not be a major player for the PAC 12. If they stay away that's 9 games on Big Fox per year that are not "after dark" and around 3 on FS1 they are down.
  • The MWC is under their contract for the next couple of years but the only big Fox games have been title games on the final week recently.

Based on these movements it's reasonable to draw conclusions similar to mine in the article.


Yet, try to say the B12 picture is not as rosy as people here think and you get killed. At what point and how many stories have to come out before red flags go off in our heads? This is not adding up... I am fearful that PAC or ACC will cut deal that will gut B12. Reason for concern is that BU is a small private school. So I monitor the tone as well as the numbers
1- The GOR and exit fee will mitigate that risk for at least the next 5 years. Too expensive for any of the 12 to leave for anything other than the SEC/B1G and neither is likely to move on our 12.
2- The ACC is locked in until 2036 with a GOR of it's own. At that point they can very easily get hit by Big Ten or SEC expansion.
3- The PAC 12 may or may not get a good paying deal. It's not coming close to the Big Ten or SEC though and that's not going to make them worthwhile enough to jump to. Also they will be at risk for UO/UW leaving the moment the Big Ten says we want you.
4- BU Is a private school. It's bigger than it used to be however and draws solid ratings in football.


Here in FL i see that the ACC GOR is under discussion. FSU has even said ACC needs to rework if they are to compete nationally. Don't see the FSU, Miami, Clemson contingent sitting pat....
We'll see how it shakes out. I doubt there's an easy way out without a massive buyback or a costly and risky legal fight.


Yeah, I am not seeing anything imininet. Just that they are voicing concern, typically first step...
That's all saber rattling. These GOR deals are ironclad, and deep down, everyone knows it. No school is going to spend millions of dollars in court to fight an airtight contract they willingly entered into. You'd just be adding court costs to the prohibitive costs already associated with breaking the GOR and exiting early.


Ok, this is what I love. For the ACC it is Saber rattling? I love these determinations. Anything we want to believe is rock solid, what we don't is Saber rattling.
Your "anyone who actually pays attention to these things is actually an ignorant homer" act is wearing really thin. If you want to take an irrationally negative view of the Big 12's current place in college athletics, that's your prerogative. But your insistence on demeaning others who are clearly posting far closer attention than you to current market realities is getting old.

It's not me saying these things about the Big 12's grant of rights deal, which was the basis for the language of the ACC's GOR. It's the creators of said deal, who have been proven right in their claim on the deal's strength each and every time someone has threatened to challenge it before inevitably backing down.

I'll believe one of these GOR deals can be broken when one is. So far, several of the wealthiest and most tradition-rich programs in the country have told us through their actions that their lawyers can't find a way out of the contracts they willingly signed.


No I don't want to be told it's raining while being pissed on.

There are troubling indications here and if you bring it up you and your cronies go attack dog. You believe UCONN, Memphis and SDSU get us in the playoff? All the while being told we are aiming to be #3? Talking of being the premier BB league? This is Big East ***** Outside of this Board, I am not seeing B12 being pushed.

So your act is wearing thin as well. This trust in Youmark and Mac ****, we are going backward if you look at the production on the field and the Conference moves (UCONN is thr big haul!)
I have no act. The Big 12 has been making lemonade since OUT decided to bounce. But anyone suggesting they haven't made a damn fine pitcher either hasn't been paying attention or is just looking for reasons to *****. In your case, it would appear to be both.

Whether the Big 12 gets PAC-12 schools or not, the league is in much, much better shape than it was this time two years ago, when the consensus nationwide was that the league would be folding imminently.

Today, not only has the conference secured a sustainable existence for the foreseeable future, it currently is in the least peril of any of the mid-level power conferences.

If you want to get on here and mope about that, feel free. But you'll look silly doing so ... particularly when, in doing so, you insult people who have a far stronger grasp on the situation than you.



Let's unpack that a little. This fine pitcher. Since the OUT move what has been so fine?

TCU getting run off the field? How many B12 schools in the playoff? Who has joined the B12?

This mighty fine pitcher is great for a G5 school, punching above its weight class. But, it is a step down for a P5.

As for the might fine fellows with such a great grasp. They are the ones that attack anyone that disagrees. That is not one persins opinion, how many here left the pay board? Not one thing that have said has come to pass. Name one. So, I question whether their grasp is on realignment. All the data points indicate otherwise, we getting ready to welcome UCONN and Memphis?

These actions whether you like it or not are in line with what the Big East did before becoming a rival of the Atlanytic 10, ask WVU fan. Are we allowed to do that? Or will it upset the fine fellows that really know, maybe one day they will let you in their club.
What has been so fine? The Big 12 still exists and just secured a TV contract that ensures its 12 members $31-plus million per year in media revenue alone through 2031. That you can't find the positives in that is a you problem.

And the Big East comparison is a really, really lazy one. The Big 12 and Big East bear almost no similarities in culture or priorities. Football will never play second fiddle to basketball in this conference because football is the top priority for every member of our league but Kansas. That doesn't, however, mean that we shouldn't try to maximize revenue from our basketball product, which is actually stronger than our football product is.
CougarFrog
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Big East football died because it decided to reject ESPN, who had made it and built it up, and go on the open market. ESPN then encouraged the ACC to poach teams until it died.

The P12 rejected an ESPN deal. ESPN may prefer to weaken the P12 as well.

The B12 avoided all that by renewing with ESPN and Fox.
FLBear5630
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CougarFrog said:

Big East football died because it decided to reject ESPN, who had made it and built it up, and go on the open market. ESPN then encouraged the ACC to poach teams until it died.

The P12 rejected an ESPN deal. ESPN may prefer to weaken the P12 as well.

The B12 avoided all that by renewing with ESPN and Fox.


Thank you for a factual response. I did not know about the ESPN rejection. Unreal, you are correct ESPN made them with the Thursday night slot. I appreciate real conversation, just not believe because they know. I have known too many supposedly on the inside to take it serious. If they really were on the inside, they would not be spouting it on the internet. You lose inside status quickly posting on the internet quickly.
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