Predicting the 2023 Big 12 Season: Week 3
My preseason series predicting every single Big 12 game of the 2023 season continues today with week No. 3 as the non-conference slate nears the end plus we get our first conference matchup of the year as Houston takes on TCU.
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Previous Weeks: Week 1 | Week 2
Saturday, September 16th
Kansas State 27 at Missouri 10
This game is going to be built up as a massive one and a close one but I think this is a chance for Kansas State to prove it is building on the success of last season. This gives them a chance to make a statement against a Missouri team who I think will go bowling at a minimum this season. Will Howard makes all the throws to keep the offense moving well enough while the defense comes together for a dominant day.
Baylor 59 vs. Long Island 7
Blowout City in this one as the Bears total nearly 600 yards of total offense behind an explosive rushing attack and big plays in the passing game setup by deadly play action. LIU is not very good and Baylor has already been tested so the defense will be ready to shut things down early but a much different challenge looms large next week.
Iowa State 20 at Ohio 12
Ohio was really good last year but star quarterback and MAC Offensive Player of the Year Kurtis Rourke tore his ACL late last season. Even if he is ready for the start of the year, I don’t think he will be at full health and he will need to be against the Cyclones. This game has upset written all over it from a national perspective but I think Iowa State’s defense is too good. They make Rourke uncomfortable all game with four sacks and two interceptions. The defense rules the day but the offense struggles once again as it begins to look like they may need to turn to freshman JJ Kohl sooner rather than later.
Oklahoma 47 at Tulsa 20
The Oklahoma offense continues to roll behind Dillon Gabriel as he completely tears apart a very weak Tulsa defense. He throws four touchdowns while his top target Jalil Farrooq goes for 175 total yards and three scores as his breakout season continues. Jovantae Barnes and Gavin Sawchuk each score on the ground. Unfortunately, the defense continues to give up a few too many explosive plays at this point in the season but it doesn’t cost them too badly on the final scoreboard. Indiana transfer Dasan McCullough has a big game with two forced turnovers while Ethan Downs records three sacks.
UCF 55 vs. Villanova 12
The Knights have a field day on offense as John Rhys Plumlee and RJ Harvey combine for 275 yards and four scores on the ground. Plumlee adds two touchdowns through the air to Kobe Hudson and Alec Holler. The defense gives up a couple of explosive plays in the passing game but they hold the rushing attack to 75 yards while piling up five sacks. This game is not close as UCF gets ready for its first-ever Big 12 game next week against a top 10 Kansas State team.
Cincinnati 16 vs. Miami (OH) 9
If you like defense then you came to the right place. This one is going to be downright ugly for these offenses which could result in a upset situation here. Both teams will be trying to manufacture points while being unable to run the ball effectively. But this is a game where Emory Jones’ mobility gives them the edge as he runs for 80 yards and a score while protecting the football. He leads a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter that puts the game away. The Bearcats' defense has an elite game plan and forces three turnovers which ultimately gets the job done. Dontay Corleone and Deshawn Pace have huge days as Cincy survives.
Oklahoma State 21 vs. South Alabama 24
This is a scary one for the Pokes as South Alabama is a veteran team with a good returning quarterback in Carter Bradley plus the Cowboys are coming off a big road win. Alan Bowman is picked off three times but also throws three touchdowns as his up-and-down early season continues. Both defenses play well throughout as both teams have multiple three-and-outs to go along with three turnovers. The game is tied 21-21 going into the 4th quarter and the teams take multiple turns getting stops. The Jaguars get the ball with three minutes left. Carter Bradley drives them down the field and he finds Devin Voisin inside the OSU 25-yard line with 10 seconds left. Diego Guajardo lines up for the field goal and hits it. Jags pull off the upset.
Texas Tech 58 vs. Tarleton 17
Huge offensive explosion for Texas Tech as both Tyler Shough and Behren Morton throw multiple touchdowns. Jerand Bradley and Drae McCray continue to feast as they total 225 yards and three scores while Tahj Brooks has a multi-touchdown game on the ground. Tarleton scores late but this game is well in hand for the Red Raiders from the moment the whistle blows.
BYU 24 at Arkansas 44
This game was a matchup between two very beaten-up teams a year ago but was won easily in Provo by the Razorbacks. This game won’t be as high scoring as last year but ultimately KJ Jefferson and the Arkansas playmakers are too much for the Cougars once again. Kedon Slovis makes enough throws to keep them in it in the first half but in the second half things get away from them. BYU is forced to throw the football to play catch up and that is just simply not their most advantageous style. A tough road game leads to an L here for the Cougars.
West Virginia 30 vs. Pitt 27
This game derailed last season for the Mountaineers as it had every opportunity to win that game but a couple of unlucky bounces ruined things. Now Pitt has to come to Morgantown for their first road game of the season. Both these teams have some experience returning but the area this game will be won is upfront. Pitt and WVU lose a ton on the defensive lines while returning a ton on the offensive lines. Both CJ Donaldson and Rodney Hammond will run for over 100 yards on the opposing defense but the difference here will be the rushing ability of quarterback Garrett Greene as his legs pose a major problem for the Panthers. He runs for over 100 yards including a game-changing 25-yard touchdown run in the 4th quarter as the Mountaineers hang on for a massive non-conference win.
TCU 37 at Houston 31
The Cougars crowd is amped up for the first Big 12 game and Donovan Smith gets things started quickly as he finds Matthew Golden for an early touchdown, Houston rides that momentum to a 13-7 lead at the end of the first quarter. Both teams strike in the second quarter as Chandler Morris finds JoJo Earle for a 45-yard touchdown while Donovan Smith runs in a touchdown as Houston holds a 20-17 lead at the half. Donovan Smith opens the second half with two interceptions by Mark Perry and Avery Helm which lead to two scores for the Horned Frogs. Trey Sanders scores the touchdown and Griffin Kell adds a field goal to take a 27-20 lead. Houston answers with a field goal as we got to the 4th, 27-23. Chandler Morris and Donovan Smith lead touchdown drives as the score is 34-31 with seven minutes remaining. Morris leads a four-minute drive down the field and Griffin Kell buries a field goal to go up 37-31. Donovan Smith gets the ball with three minutes remaining and the Cougars needing a touchdown. Smith drives the offense inside the 15-yard line with 30 seconds remaining but on 4th down he is sacked by Paul Oyewale to end the game.
Texas 48 vs. Wyoming 10
Round number 2 for Wyoming against a Big 12 team does not go any better than round one did against Texas Tech. Wyoming’s offense is just not good enough even with a strong defensive approach. The Longhorns get rolling early with a couple of explosive touchdowns to AD Mitchell and JT Sanders then the run game gets going behind Jonathan Brooks and Jaydon Blue. The combo of the pass and the run opens things up for this offense to have a strong day. Jahdae Barron and Gavin Holmes come away with interceptions as this is a well-rounded victory for Texas as they get set for another tough road challenge in Waco next week.
Kansas 49 at Nevada 20
This game is on the road plus Nevada will be improved defensively so I expect the Jayhawks to have a mediocre first quarter before this thing goes sideways. The Wolfpack are simply not good offensively as it finished 119th in the nation in scoring defense. Too many empty possessions and three-and-outs lead to scoring runs for the Jayhawks. Jalon Daniels and this veteran-laden offense get humming with a 28-point second quarter that puts this game away. Daniels finishes with four total touchdowns while Devin Neal adds 150 yards and a score on the ground. KU starts slow but ultimately it has too much offense for Nevada to keep up.
Big 12 Standings
1. TCU — 3-0 (1-0)
2. Baylor — 3-0 (0-0)
2. Kansas — 3-0 (0-0)
2. Kansas State — 3-0 (0-0)
2. Oklahoma — 3-0 (0-0)
2. UCF — 3-0 (0-0)
7. BYU — 2-1 (0-0)
7. Texas — 2-1 (0-0)
7. Texas Tech — 2-1 (0-0)
7. Oklahoma State — 2-1 (0-0)
7. Iowa State — 2-1 (0-0)
7. Cincinnati — 2-1 (0-0)
7. West Virginia — 2-1 (0-0)
14. Houston — 1-2 (0-1)