Predicting the Big 12 Season: Week 4

My preseason series predicting every single Big 12 game of the 2023 season continues today with week No. 4

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Previous Weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3

Saturday, September 23rd

Texas 34 at Baylor 27

Huge top 25 battle in Waco. The Longhorns start off red hot as Quinn Ewers finds JT Sanders and AD Mitchell for early touchdowns as they get off to a 20-6 start. Baylor responds with a touchdown by Dominic Richardson 20-13 at halftime. The second half starts like the first as Ewers hits Xavier Worthy for a 60-yard touchdown as the Longhorns extend the lead. Baylor responds as Blake Shapen finds Ketron Jackson for a 30-yard score to cut into the lead, 27-20 going into the 4th. The Longhorns go on a 7-minute drive capped by a Jonathan Brooks touchdown to push the lead out. The Bears respond with a 5-minute drive finished off with a Richard Reese touchdown. Baylor forces a three and out to get the ball back with 2:20 left in the game and down by seven points. On 3rd and 8 at their own 40, Blake Shapen is sacked by Jaylan Ford and fumbles the ball. It’s recovered by Texas as the Longhorns survive a major road test.

Oklahoma 30 at Cincinnati 23

The first Big 12 game for Cincy and it is at home. This will not be a fun environment to walk into for the Sooners. Both teams struggle to move the ball in the first half and the Bearcats actually dominate the majority of the first half but the score is just 16-9 in favor of Cincy. But the second half is a different story as Dillon Gabriel hits two explosive passes to Jalil Farooq that breaks the game open and gets the running game going. The Cincy offense continues to stall through the first part of the season and it costs them once again after getting a dominant first half on the defensive side.

Oklahoma State 13 at Iowa State 12

Ugly game here for both of these offenses as both teams rely heavily on the ground game and both run into a wall for most of the day. Neither team trusts its quarterbacks both Hunter Dekkers and Alan Bowman both throw early interceptions. In general, this game comes down to the defenses and both play well but the Cowboys create explosive plays with their defense as Collin Oliver gets a strip sack in the redzone which leads to three points and Kendal Daniels has a pick-six. Those points directly off the turnovers end up being the difference.

BYU 31 at Kansas 34

This is the kind of game that feels like it will be a high-scoring affair as both of these defenses were terrible last season while both offenses have a ton of balance with the pass and the run. Aidan Robbins and Devin Neal both eclipse 125 yards and two scores on the ground. Both quarterbacks throw two touchdowns as well. The Cougars up 31-24 with eight minutes to go but Jalon Daniels leads two straight scoring drives including the game-winning one. Daniels finds Quentin Skinner on a 25-yard fade to the end zone and he comes down with it. BYU has three minutes to go tie the game up but Kedon Slovis is intercepted by Cobee Bryant at the 50-yard line to seal the Jayhawks win.

UCF 31 at Kansas State 41

Another high-scoring matchup in the Big 12 in UCF’s first-ever Big 12 game. Both Will Howard and John Rhys Plumlee have great performances as they both total four touchdowns for their teams. The difference in this one is the run game especially as the game progresses. Both teams have success early but as we get later and later in the game the Wildcats begin stuffing the run while the Knights start giving up more and more ground. The Wildcats' offensive line takes over in the 4th as they pull away for a double-digit win. Good effort but the Knights but their lack of depth and weakness at linebacker is exposed late.

Texas Tech 33 at West Virginia 34

One of the most entertaining games of the early part of the season will happen in Morgantown as these two defenses struggle but the offenses live up to the hype. West Virginia totals 300 yards on the ground thanks to a massive game from CJ Donaldson and Garrett Greene. On the flip side, Tyler Shough and the Red Raiders post 350 yards through the air. This game comes down to turnovers as Tech coughs it up three times. Michael Hayes hits a game-winning field goal with just a minute left to go. Keep this in mind: Texas Tech was 1-4 in road games last season with the only win coming late in the season against 4-8 Iowa State. All four losses were by at least 9 points.

SMU 27 at TCU 45

SMU is gonna be what they have been this year which is able to score points but unable to stop anyone. TCU gets rolling on the offensive side, especially through the air. Chandler Morris has his best game in the early part of the season as he gashes the Mustangs for 350 yards passing and four touchdowns. Savion Williams goes for 150 yards and two scores while Jojo Earle adds another 100 yards and a score. The defense gives up some big plays and points but they also force two turnovers and tally up five sacks. Expect SMU to give TCU its best shot per usual but the Frogs are too much.

Sam Houston 13 at Houston 38

The Cougars roll this week behind a strong offensive performance as they total 500 yards of offense. Stacy Sneed and Brandon Campbell combine for 200 yards and three scores. We also see a glimpse of four-star freshman wide receivers Jonah Wilson and Mikel Harrison-Pilot who each have a few big plays in this game. Nice way to get back on track as they get set for a run of eight-straight conference games.

Big 12 Standings

1. TCU — 4-0 (1-0)

1. Kansas — 4-0 (1-0)

1. Kansas State — 4-0 (1-0)

1. Oklahoma — 4-0 (1-0)

1. Texas — 3-1 (1-0)

1. Oklahoma State — 3-1 (1-0)

1. West Virginia — 3-1 (1-0)

8. Baylor — 3-1 (0-1)

8. Iowa State — 2-2 (0-1)

8. Texas Tech — 2-2 (0-1)

8. Cincinnati — 2-2 (0-1)

8. UCF — 3-1 (0-1)

8. BYU — 2-2 (0-1)

8. Houston — 2-2 (0-1)