State of the Program: A 2024 Baylor Soccer Season Review
With plenty of time and space from the 2024 Baylor Soccer season, let’s take a look back at the inflection points, notable stats, top performers and overall thoughts from the campaign. Head Coach Michelle Lenard kindly spent time answering questions to offer context and insight on the season and where she is directing the program through the offseason. I hope you all enjoy it!
Where Is This Program At?
After the rocky start of the Michelle Lenard era in 2022, the large step forward in 2023 was a welcome outcome. Having made the 2023 Big 12 tournament, winning at least one game at the 2024 edition seemed a nice goal to pair with contending for an NCAA tournament bid in 2024.
Largely, Baylor Soccer did those things this past season. The Bears topped Arizona 2-1 in the first round of the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City. The Green and Gold were also in the bubble conversation for an NCAA bid up until late-season injuries and results went against them.
At the end of 2022, the Bears’ final RPI ranking was No. 190. The team improved to No. 107 at the end of the 2023 season, a great jump of 83 spots. The higher you get, the tougher it is to pass teams up in RPI. At the end of this past season, the Green and Gold found themselves at No. 70. In one light — having spent good parts of the season in the top 50 of the RPI — finishing 70th is disappointing. However, an improvement of 37 spots over the previous season is notable. A similar improvement in 2025 would have the Bears in the mid-to-low thirties of the RPI and, almost surely, in the NCAA tournament, a result that aligns with the goals of the program.
“We never take as much of a step as I want to,” Lenard said. “We've made steady, consistent progress, and that's what matters at the end of the day. Sometimes, it's not as big of a step as you want, but what we're trying to build is long-term sustainable success. And that doesn't come fast.”
Year four is a good place in a rebuild to start expecting a completed project that simply needs maintenance before improvement projects are prepared and executed.
It appears that 2025 will show fans whether Baylor Soccer is indeed at that stage or not. To date, signs point to the affirmative.
How did we get here? What were the inflection points?
So how did Baylor take the step from RPI No. 107 and an NCAA Tournament dreamer to RPI No. 70 and a true bubble team that slipped up at the end? And why did the season perhaps feel more disappointing to some this year than to others?
Let’s look at the inflection points and major beats of the story of the season:
A Very Competitive Start
Baylor’s season started with a matchup against the No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs. The 1-0 loss came from a brilliant early goal that was individual skill more than anything Baylor did wrong. It was a good showing from the Bears against a team that would peak at No. 2 in the polls and a sign of the quality the Green and Gold would show through the next five games.
St. Bonaventure, Hawaii, Portland, Texas A&M and SMU would all fall to Baylor in successive fashion as Coach Lenard’s squad was hitting its stride. The wins against the Aggies and Mustangs were the most impressive. Texas A&M is a solid SEC program, and Tyler Isgrig’s game-winner was one of the best goals of the season, considering both skill and situation. Granted, Isgrig outdid herself in the next match with a later winner to take the Bears 2-1 past the Ponies.
A Midseason Slump
Just when it looked like the Bears could carry some truly impressive momentum into the start of conference play, they lost 3-0 at No. 22 Iowa. Now the Hawkeyes would make the Sweet Sixteen and finish at No. 12 in the polls, so 3-0 is no embarrassment. However, the late goals made the scoreline uglier, and the game seemed to rattle the Bears a little.
I say rattle because the Bears went on to post three unlucky or subpar results, depending on how you view the team. Oklahoma State — then ranked the No. 15 team in the nation — visited Waco to open conference play, and Baylor laid an egg and lost 1-0 to the Pokes.
A 2-2 draw with Texas State followed, in which the Bears gave up a last-minute equalizer. Then, Baylor dropped another Big 12 game 1-0 to a beatable Arizona team.
“We dropped a couple of early games that we shouldn't have, and that really obviously sets the tone,” said Lenard of the slump.
An Under-the-Radar Rebound
While a 4-0 slaughter of Houston was rather overt, consecutive 1-1 draws at then No. 16 Colorado and at home versus eventual Big 12 champions TCU were more covert. Those are decent results from the toughest stretch of the Bears’ schedule.
A 1-0 loss at Texas Tech due to a somewhat flukey goal added some pain to the 1-1-2 stretch, but Baylor was playing very good soccer through these four games.
The “rebound” was capped off by yet another 4-0 dominant win, this time against Arizona State. Sadly, at least to this writer, the campaign will be remembered more for the final stretch of the regular season.
An Injury Hobbled Stretch Run
The last four games before postseason play were undermined by key defensive injuries. Starting center back Marissa Gray was lost during the first game of the stretch, a 2-0 loss to West Virginia.
Next, the Bears battled violent rain, hail and lightning delays in Provo, Utah, against BYU before blowing a 3-1 lead late to draw 3-3.
After that draining experience, the Bears visited Utah, where they lost Hannah Augustyn to injury and fell 2-0 to the Utes.
Needing a draw to ensure their qualification for the Big 12 Tournament, the Bears traveled to Iowa State. Augustyn and Gray both returned to the field, and a late equalizer from Skye Leach got Baylor over the line.
“We just proved not to have the depth and critical positions that we needed, which I thought we knew was the case, but they just hit it the worst possible time,” Lenard said. “It's just the reality of a season, but hard luck.”
A Solid Big 12 Tournament
As the No. 10 seed, Baylor had to play Arizona in the first round, and they pounced on the opportunity to avenge the earlier loss to the Wildcats.
Caroline Staubach scored the best goal of the season in the 75th minute to help the Bears win 2-1.
Looking back on the Big 12 Tournament, Lenard spoke proudly of how her team responded to the tough run of games previous.
“We were able to adjust back on track at the end of the season, which was a really good sign of growth … knowing that the season was on the line, and putting ourselves back in a position to potentially get into the NCAA Tournament was a really big step for us.”
Texas Tech was next, and with the Bears likely needing a trip to the final for NCAA Tournament qualification — if not an outright tournament win for the automatic bid — the task was tall.
Sadly, Baylor could not capitalize on an early 1-0 lead and fell 2-1. The Texas Tech winner came dubiously on a last-second corner kick in the first half, where the refs stopped the clock in a questionable manner, leaving time for the set piece.
However, the Bears had the entire second half to take fate into their own hands, and they could not find an equalizer, ending their season in Kansas City.
Notable stats
The numbers that stood out the most from 2024 Baylor Soccer are centered mostly around RPI. The Bears finished 70th in the nation in RPI, the ninth-best mark win the Big 12. While ninth in the conference is not what the program is aiming for, the 38-spot jump from 2023 is another significant step in the right direction.
Taking RPI and looking at the team’s record of 8-8-5, we can start to see key differences from the first two years of Lenard’s tenure. Not all of this will look great when looking only at 2024, but the big picture shows more promise.
Against teams in the top 70 in RPI — teams ranked higher than Baylor — the Bears went 3-7-3. Coach Lenard’s squad won a third of their games against NCAA tournament quality teams and earned at least a point on two out of three of those matches. That is the most basic way to look at these numbers. Definitely competitive figures, but not championship contention numbers.
Meanwhile, the Bears' splits against teams below them in the RPI are impeccable. The Bears went 5-1-2 in 2024 against such teams.
Reminder: The one loss was away in Utah three days after a late game at BYU that was interrupted by severe weather multiple times. The Bears surrendered a 3-3 draw to the Cougars before losing 2-0 to Utah. Baylor was also dealing with key injuries. These reasons show how much it takes for Baylor to lose to a team rated below them.
Looking more closely at the Big 12, the chosen RPI line of 70 cuts the conference perfectly in half, with Baylor at 9th. The Bears went 2-1-1 against the bottom half of the Big 12 while going 1-5-3 against the top half.
Moving beyond record, the Bears scored 18 goals in eight games against these lower-rated teams while conceding just seven. Conversely, against top-70 competition, the Bears scored just 11 goals in 13 games while allowing 18 goals across those same matches.
The Bears need to find a way to flip that goal-scoring record against quality teams come 2025. Many games will be a close fight, just like in 2024. The Bears only lost to two of these top 70 teams by multiple goals (0-3 at Iowa and 0-2 vs. West Virginia) and those games were still very competitive throughout.
Scoring one more goal in each top-half Big 12 game would have more than doubled Baylor’s conference points total (from 10 to 21) and vaulted the Bears to 4th place. Obviously, that is no small feat to accomplish, and the difference in difficulty between writing it down and making it a reality is absurd. But that is the kind of jump Baylor wants to make next season.
The Bears can accomplish this by diversifying the attack with more instinctual goal scorers to take some defensive focus away from Isgrig. The junior forward accounted for seven of Baylor’s 29 goals and eight of the team’s 22 assists. That is slightly over a quarter of the team’s offensive production by points.
If seven more goals in conference play can launch Baylor from 10th in the Big 12 to 4th, then finding another Isgrig in terms of production is necessary. Add in the loss of five goals and two assists from 2023 leading scorer Ashley Merrill — who has finished her collegiate career — and players either on the roster or soon to be added to the roster need to step in and produce more.
Top Performers
Tyler Isgrig — The Bears’ leading goal scorer and assist creator, the winger finished with seven goals and eight assists for 22 points. In both of her seasons in Waco, she has produced 20-plus points. That will be the expectation again in 2025. Just as importantly, this wasn’t only a numbers game for the Arlington native, she scored clutch, game-winning goals against Texas A&M and SMU; two of the Bears’ best wins on the year. Lenard also praised Isgrig’s “professional” approach to training, saying that the rising senior elevates the program by bringing others with her in this approach.
Azul Alvarez — The rising senior goalkeeper was outstanding for the Bears in 2024, making 101 saves and holding a save percentage of 0.828 while allowing 21 goals in her 20 games played. That save percentage puts her first in the Big 12, sixth out of the Power Four and 40th nationally. She was the offseason addition that made the biggest on-field impact in 2024, and her teammates all made sure their appreciation of her efforts was known.
Hallie Augustyn — Another rising senior and the player who played the most minutes for the Bears in 2024. It is tough to highlight her performance better than Lenard did when she said, “I think [Hallie] is one of the best center backs in the conference, and arguably one of the best in the country. She does so much well so consistently and has really stepped out of what is maybe a quieter personality type … into a better and more effective leader. So I think she's taking big strides forward, and I’m really excited for her next year.”
Natalie Vatter — The most improved Bear from 2023 to 2024. The rising redshirt junior outside back used a great work ethic and attitude to step up into a highly consistent piece of the back line. The coaches not only knew exactly what Vatter was giving them, but they loved it. Lenard even commented about how Vatter produced a couple of nice assists from a position where you don’t expect a lot of offensive production. The step forward was clear to see and important for the team.
Roster Review
Attrition (11)
- Defenders (5) — Marissa Gray, Ava Colberg and Kate Zimmerman are all out of eligibility, which means two starters are gone. Blythe Obar, returning from injury, will fill Gray’s spot, and Colberg's outside back spot will likely be filled by a transfer, though they are options on the roster. Freshmen Caelan DeBolt and Hilary Washington have both left the team after just one season.
- Midfielders (3) — Ashley Merrill is out of eligibility and moving into college coaching elsewhere. Skye Leach and Hannah Boughton are both transferring to Kentucky and UCF, respectively. None of these losses is a great one, but Baylor has enough good options. Midfielder is now the thinnest position group on the roster, though, despite the addition of transfer Aryanna Jimison.
- Forwards (3) — Haven Terry and Jordan Ryan are out of eligibility. Salma Simonin is transferring out. Between trying to trim the roster down to 28 and improve goal-scoring next season, a new rotation of options is a good thing.
Freshmen (3)
- One midfielder, one defender and one goalkeeper. Olivia Hess, the midfielder, was noted as a player with some of that killer instinct. Emerson Garcia, the defender, is a good candidate for some playing time as a freshman alongside Hess. Both are early enrollees for the spring semester. Canadian goalkeeper Sierra Gallant brings more competition to her position group.
Sophomores (4)
- Two Defenders, Paisley Mabra and Madison Encinas, are in an important position to prove they are ready for more minutes this spring. With quality defensive depth being a key limiting factor this past season, Mabra and Encinas are key players to watch.
- Midfielder Jade Martinez has an opportunity to earn minutes in the smallest position room on the team. The three starting midfielders typically need to come from a room that is currently slated to have six people in it.
- Forward Alysiah Lockette made 11 starts in 21 appearances and has a chance to build on that heading into 2025. Step one will be getting points on the board after finishing with zero goals and assists in 2024. The ability and potential are there.
Juniors (13)
- Goalkeeper — Riley Franklin was third in the pecking order in front of goal last year and will look to push the pair of seniors more in the coming season.
- Defenders (4) — Natalie Vatter is the returning starter here and the most improved player after 2024. Colorado outside back Angelina Moschetti is also joining the Bears heading into 2025. The left-footer will likely slot into the starting left outside-back spot. Claire Kniss and Kaitlin Swann only have seven combined appearances. Both have dealt with injuries early in their Baylor careers.
- Midfielders (3) — Theresa McCullough and Adriana Merriam have both shown flashes of what they can do for the Bears. McCullough notched three assists this past year and Merriam one. They both have started as more attacking-oriented midfielders and with Ashley Merrill running out of eligibility, these two are looking to earn those minutes. The staff also added Houston transfer, Aryanna Jimison. The former Big 12 All-Freshman team member has 29 appearances and 19 starts under her belt, seven goals and six assists in her two seasons of play.
- Forwards (5) — This is a grab-bag of collegiate career situations. Callie Conrad is fighting for the starting center-forward role, and Lenard is looking for her to show that killer instinct in 2025. Skylar Zinnecker saw reduced playing time in 2024 compared to 2023 but is considered one of the hardest workers on the team and a great teammate. She has every chance of flipping the script next fall. Caroline Staubach scored arguably Baylor’s best goal of the year in the Big 12 tournament against Arizona. She has a lot of potential as a center forward, but she has plenty of competition. Lauren Omholt is transferring into Baylor from Purdue and will likely start opposite Tyler Isgrig on the wing. She is expected to be an impact transfer, and she has a killer instinct. Last is Brianna Chesley, who has not seen any game action for the Bears yet.
Seniors and Superseniors (6+2)
- Goalkeepers (2) — Azul Alvarez was the starter all year for Baylor and kept a load of goals off the board for the Bears’ opponents. It’s huge to have her back for another year. Ashlee Zirkel was the primary backup in ’24 after starting over half of the 2023 season. Pushing Alvarez for playing time can only mean good things for Zirkel and Baylor in 2025.
- Defenders (2) — Blythe Obar returns from a season out with an injury to directly replace Marissa Gray at center back. Hallie Augustyn is possibly the best player on the roster and will be a leader of not just the defense but the whole team. If Obar can return to her 2023 form, the center-back pairing will be great for Baylor in 2025.
- Midfielders (2) — Hannah Augustyn, who has played plenty of both midfield and defense, is likely to start in the No. 6 role that departing Skye Leach has vacated. Much like her twin, Hannah has been a high-performing player for Lenard for multiple years. Kai Hayes could also fill the No. 6 role well if Hannah A. is needed on the back line. Otherwise, she will stay in a more box-to-box role and provide much-needed toughness across the field.
- Forwards (2) — Leading scorer Tyler Isgrig will look to beat her seven goals and eight assists from 2024, with hopefully more goal production from her fellow forwards in 2025. Morgan Greengage has not seen game action since 2022.
Starting at 33 on the roster from 2024 and with impending roster limitations coming officially in April with the NCAA settlement, the coaching staff is aiming for a roster of 28 student-athletes. That is likely the final official number, making it a safe and smart target to keep through the spring semester. Currently sitting at 28 after the transfer addition of midfielder Aryanna Jimison from Houston, the staff has done a good job managing attrition and the portal.
When it comes to class breakdown and position group breakdown, the bulk of juniors — and to a lesser extent seniors — points to continued higher expectations natural to an upperclassman-laden roster. The freedom of the transfer portal does quell roster construction concerns for 2026 and beyond decently.
When looking at the positions breakdown, if the target roster size is 28, a natural split of 8/8/8/4 makes sense, with goalkeeper being the smallest room. With Baylor adding a final midfielder to take the roster to 28, Lenard will have splits of nine forwards, seven midfielders, eight defenders and four keepers, very close to the “target.” Now, midfielders like McCullough and Merriam have played more like wingers in the past, so the options with experience in more defensive roles are looking a bit slim. This concern can be proven misguided quite easily next year, though.
Final Thoughts
Opinions on the season will fall on one side of the line between a good step forward and a slight disappointment given the talent on the roster.
While Lenard nearly convinced me to the former, the lasting feeling I have from watching the action was slight disappointment.
The jump in RPI from No. 107 to No. 70 is great. However, the draws with BYU, Iowa State and Texas State, as well as the losses to Oklahoma State, Arizona and Utah, were at the very least unfortunate. Those six games without one win — especially with five of them being conference games — left so much on the table. An RPI in the fifties, a finish in the top half of the Big 12 and — while still unlikely without winning four of those games — a bid to the NCAA Tournament could have all been achieved with the talent on the team in 2024.
That is no indictment on the coaching staff. Sometimes, the players don’t execute. Sometimes, they execute the game plan but get unlucky with chance conversion. Lenard herself spoke on how she learned from the way she and the team handled the early conference slump, saying, “We were struggling, and we weren't playing our style, and I knew that, and I think I let some of the frustration shift into some negativity … I think it was the wrong direction, and so I wish I would have caught that a little bit sooner.“
“What we're trying to build is long-term sustainable success, and that doesn't come fast. That's not to diminish the fact that there were a couple of games that we let slip through our fingertips. We did, and we regret that, and it's a hard lesson to learn ... but we were still better.”
I think that the last quote sums up ‘where the program is’ quite well. So, while I as a media member do feel a sense of disappointment from 2024 Baylor Soccer, it is that the program did not take a leap forward instead of a step; that Lenard’s program did not jump ahead of schedule so to speak by a year. And in a season with a high strength of schedule, the results achieved were adequate and the lessons learned while meeting the bar should pay dividends.
With proactive roster management and a bulk of returning upperclassmen, year four of the Lenard Era of Baylor Soccer should be highly competitive. Perhaps they can even return the Bears to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018’s Elite Eight run.