Predicting the Big 12 Season: Baylor Renews Old Rivalry against SMU in Week 2

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Welcome back! It’s time to project the Big 12 season for every team once again. Over the next couple of weeks, I will go through the entirety of the upcoming season for each team in the Big 12, pick the conference champion and make bowl projections.

Obviously, there is still a lot that can change, but barring significant injuries for any of the teams, we are in a good spot for some predictions. With that said, let's do this!

• Week 1: Baylor 24, Auburn 21

Baylor @ SMU: 11 a.m. CT, Saturday, Sept. 6, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (CW)

The biggest advantage either team has coming into this game is Baylor’s offensive line vs. SMU’s front seven. Baylor returns four starters, and the new right tackle, Kaden Sieracki, played 924 career snaps. That unit paved the way for a massive offensive explosion by the Bears over the final seven games of the season. This should be a top-five offensive line in the Big 12 at a minimum. Meanwhile, the Mustangs lose eight defensive linemen who contributed, including all the starters, plus they lose both linebackers and the nickelback starter. That is way too much depth and production to lose, then fill with a ton of transfers. I think there are too many moving parts here, and the Bears getting them early in the season will be a major advantage.

Baylor got away with playing a ton of pocket passers last season, and while that led to some big games from pocket passers, it made things pretty straightforward for the defense. But in games against BYU, Kansas and West Virginia stand out as ones you could point to where Baylor played an athletic quarterback. In those games, the Bears allowed 223 rushing yards and 6.5 yards per carry to the quarterback position. Jennings had six games where he rushed for over 35 yards and five rushing touchdowns on the ground. He is not an elite runner, but he will absolutely make you pay if you aren’t ready for it. This will be a key area to watch, and I do think he will have to use his legs a lot if SMU is going to win this game.

All offseason I have felt pretty confident about Baylor winning this game, I think the Auburn one is the more likely loss, so I don’t want to go against that now. The Bears' offense is too balanced and too consistent for the Mustangs' defense to get stops. Meanwhile, I think Baylor will be able to trip up the SMU offense enough as the Ponies are breaking in a ton of new parts on that side of the ball.

• Prediction: Baylor 44, SMU 30

Rest of the Big 12 Slate

Saturday, Sept. 6

• Iowa 23 at Iowa State 21
• Kent State 13 at Texas Tech 48
• Kansas 24 at Missouri 31
• Oklahoma State 20 at Oregon 38
• Bowling Green 17 at Cincinnati 38
• Delaware 17 at Colorado 37
• West Virginia 27 at Ohio 30
• Cal Poly 6 at Utah 52
• Army 14 at Kansas State 24
• Houston 28 at Rice 13
• Arizona State 33 at Mississippi State 24
• Weber State 10 at Arizona 35
• Stanford 10 at BYU 20
• NC A&T 9 at UCF 42

Big 12 Standings

• 1. Kansas State — 3-0 (1-0)
• T2. Baylor — 2-0 (0-0)
• T2. Arizona State – 2-0 (0-0)
• T2. Arizona – 2-0 (0-0)
• T2. Utah – 2-0 (0-0)
• T2. Texas Tech — 2-0 (0-0)
• T2. BYU — 2-0 (0-0)
• T2. UCF — 2-0 (0-0)
• T2. Houston — 2-0 (0-0)
• 10. TCU — 1-0 (0-0)
• 11. Kansas — 2-1 (0-0) 
• T12. Oklahoma State — 1-1 (0-0)
• T12. West Virginia — 1-1 (0-0)
• T12. Cincinnati — 1-1 (0-0)
• T12. Colorado – 1-1 (0-0)
• 16. Iowa State — 1-2 (0-1)