Matthew Mayer a first rounder?

11,316 Views | 126 Replies | Last: 12 days ago by Ghostrider
historian
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If I'm reading this correctly, this mock draft has Matt going late in the first round. I really hope we have him back next year. He could be one of our stars.

BUCANDOIT82
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Chad Ford also has him in the late first round:

Chad Ford's NBA Big Board - NBA Draft Podcast: Big Board 4.0 on Apple Podcasts
IowaBear
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That mock has 2 foreign players... in other words that mock is a complete joke
bear2be2
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IowaBear said:

That mock has 2 foreign players... in other words that mock is a complete joke
It also has Cade Cunningham going No. 3. Any GM that lets him slip to 3, particularly to take a center in front of him, should be fired on the spot.

That said, if Matthew Mayer can creep into the first round, he should absolutely leave. If he can't, he'd be best off returning and improving his stock.
Stefano DiMera
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Just because some 'analyst' says youre first round doesnt guarantee youll be picked

Weve seen that movie before.
Grizz Air
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Whoa
DanaDane
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Mayer's gone. Need to start making other plans. His game translates more to the NBA than it did to the college game (and I'm not saying it didn't translate at the college level, just that it will be even better at the next level).
IowaBear
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He's gone based on ? This mock draft? LOL I could draw names from a hat and it would be a better mock draft
BUCANDOIT82
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IowaBear said:

He's gone based on ? This mock draft? LOL I could draw names from a hat and it would be a better mock draft
OK. You have officially identified yourself as one of the Mayer haters. That said, he is gone. He said if I am a first round pick or high second round pick I am probably gone, which means gone.

Matthew Mayer and Jackson Moffatt Notes: Mayer Tells Kendall He's 70-30 on Returning to Baylor (ourdailybears.com)
IowaBear
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Mayer hater? WHERE? Actually a big fan of his.
IowaBear
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He also said in that interview he was 70-30 on coming back. You seem to believe because a few guys mock him as late first rd pick that he's a lock. News flash. Devon Dotson was told he was a first rounder last year... go see where he landed.
EvilTroyAndAbed
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He ain't getting picked in the first round this year. This mock draft is......not accurate. IowaBear is right. This analyst has no real cred if he has so few foreign players in the first round.
baylor1984
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Unless he is 80 to 90 percent sure he's getting picked in the top 15 to 20 picks he should come back. He could work himself into a lottery pick next year and that would make him quite a bit more money in the long run.
IowaBear
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Bingo, You, Stefano, Bear all have excellent points. Any mock with Cunningham not #1 or 2 is a joke. Just because some scout tells you your a first rounder doesn't mean you will be. There's about 20-30 examples of that yearly. And lastly the drop off I. Guaranteed money is huge after the lottery.
bear2be2
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DanaDane said:

Mayer's gone. Need to start making other plans. His game translates more to the NBA than it did to the college game (and I'm not saying it didn't translate at the college level, just that it will be even better at the next level).
I think Matthew Mayer would have been a star player in college this past season if the playing time had been available to him. And he'll almost certainly be next year if he returned.

I'd say his limited production in college is more a product of circumstance than how his game translates to college. If he does leave -- and I think he should if he gets a first round grade -- it will be a shame that we never got to see him reach his full potential at Baylor. But regardless, he was a massive part of a national championship team, so he'll have fulfilled any reasonable expectations we might have had of his career.
bear2be2
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IowaBear said:

He also said in that interview he was 70-30 on coming back. You seem to believe because a few guys mock him as late first rd pick that he's a lock. News flash. Devon Dotson was told he was a first rounder last year... go see where he landed.
You don't even have to go outside our own program. Go see how listening to pre-draft hype worked out for Quincy Miller.
Jorkel
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I hope he is a first rounder this year and gets paid. Respect to him he can put the ball in the net.
bear2be2
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Jorkel said:

I hope he is a first rounder this year and gets paid. Respect to him he can put the ball in the net.
I'd like to see him get a chance to start and excel in a starring role for Baylor. But if he's a first-round pick, I'll applaud him and wish him well.
DanaDane
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Nothing to do with "mock" drafts.

Check back in a few weeks.
historian
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I always thought he should remain at Baylor for another year because he needs to develop further. His limited output in several games this year--especially during the tournament--illustrates that. But part of my thinking is admittedly selfish. We are already taking a huge hit by losing Butler, Teague, Mitchell, & Vital. We are still going to every good next year with Flagler, Cryer, EJ, etc. leading the way but they all have limited experience. If Mayer goes, how many upperclassmen will we have?
gobears20
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Staff
Jorkel
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historian said:

I always thought he should remain at Baylor for another year because he needs to develop further. His limited output in several games this year--especially during the tournament--illustrates that. But part of my thinking is admittedly selfish. We are already taking a huge hit by losing Butler, Teague, Mitchell, & Vital. We are still going to every good next year with Flagler, Cryer, EJ, etc. leading the way but they all have limited experience. If Mayer goes, how many upperclassmen will we have?


Imagine being the player that gets to play 15 minutes a game and is expected to be hot every time. Hard to get into a rhythm. I saw games where Butler and Mitchell didn't light up at all. Besides most players drafted on projection.
Texasjeremy
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The biggest reason not to come back is if he felt he could not improve his draft stock (with the major increase in playing time and becoming a main option its hard to believe he wouldn't)

2020 DRAFT CONTRACTS
ROUND 1
1. Anthony Edwards - 4 years, $44.3M ($20.0M guaranteed)
2. James Wiseman - 4 years, $39.6M ($17.9M guaranteed)
3. LaMelo Ball - 4 years, $35.6M ($16.1M guaranteed)
4. Patrick Williams - 4 years, $32.1M ($14.5M guaranteed)
5. Isaac Okoro - 4 years, $29.1M ($13.1M guaranteed)
6. Onyeka Okongwu - 4 years, $26.4M ($11.9M guaranteed)
7. Killian Hayes - 4 years, $24.1M ($10.9M guaranteed)
8. Obi Toppin - 4 years, $22.1M ($10.0M guaranteed)
9. Deni Avdija - 4 years, $20.3M ($9.2M guaranteed)
10. Jalen Smith - 4 years, $19.3M ($8.7M guaranteed)
11. Devin Vassell - 4 years, $18.6M ($8.3M guaranteed)
12. Tyrese Haliburton - 4 years, $17.9M ($7.9M guaranteed)
13. Kira Lewis - 4 years, $17.2M ($7.5M guaranteed)
14. Aaron Nesmith - 4 years, $16.5M ($7.1M guaranteed)
15. Cole Anthony - 4 years, $15.9M ($6.7M guaranteed)
16. Isaiah Stewart - 4 years, $15.1M ($6.4M guaranteed)
17. Aleksej Pokusevski - 4 years, $14.3M ($6.1M guaranteed)
18. Josh Green - 4 years, $13.6M ($5.8M guaranteed)
19. Saddiq Bey - 4 years, $13.0M ($5.5M guaranteed)
20. Precious Achiuwa - 4 years, $12.5M ($5.3M guaranteed)
21. Tyrese Maxey - 4 years, $12.2M ($5.1M guaranteed)
22. Zeke Nnaji - 4 years, $11.8M ($4.9M guaranteed)
23. Leandro Bolmaro - Did Not Sign
24. RJ Hampton - 4 years, $9.7M ($3.1M guaranteed)
25. Immanuel Quickley - 4 years, $10.8M ($4.3M guaranteed)
26. Payton Pritchard - 4 years, $10.4M ($4.2M guaranteed)
27. Udoka Azubuike - 4 years, $10.2M ($4.1M guaranteed)
28. Jaden McDaniels - 4 years, $10.1M ($4.0M guaranteed)
29. Malachi Flynn - 4 years, $10.0M ($4.0M guaranteed)
30. Desmond Bane - 4 years, $9.9M ($4.0M guaranteed)

ROUND 2
31. Tyrell Terry - 4 years, $6.5M ($4.6M guaranteed)
32. Vernon Carey - 4 years, $6.6M ($4.7M guaranteed)
33. Daniel Oturu - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
34. Theo Maledon - 4 years, $7.8M ($4.0M guaranteed)
35. Xavier Tillman - 4 years, $6.5M ($4.6M guaranteed)
36. Tyler Bey - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
37. Vit Krejci - Did Not Sign
38. Saben Lee - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
39. Elijah Hughes - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
40. Robert Woodard - 4 years, $6.7M ($3.0M guaranteed)
41. Tre Jones - 3 years, $4.2M ($2.4M guaranteed)
42. Nick Richards - 3 years, $4.3M ($2.5M guaranteed)
43. Jahmi'us Ramsey - 3 years, $4.3M ($2.5M guaranteed)
44. Marko Simonovic - Did Not Sign
45. Jordan Nwora - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
46. CJ Elleby - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
47. Yam Madar - Did Not Sign
48. Nico Mannion - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
49. Isaiah Joe - 3 years, $4.2M ($2.4M guaranteed)
50. Skylar Mays - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
51. Justinian Jessup - Did Not Sign
52. Kenyon Martin, Jr. - 4 years, $6.1M ($898K guaranteed)
53. Cassius Winston - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
54. Cassius Stanley - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
55. Jay Scrubb - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
56. Grant Riller - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
57. Reggie Perry - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
58. Paul Reed - 3 years, $3.9M ($609K guaranteed)
59. Jalen Harris - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
60. Sam Merrill - 2 years, $2.4M ($898K guaranteed)
bear2be2
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Jorkel said:

historian said:

I always thought he should remain at Baylor for another year because he needs to develop further. His limited output in several games this year--especially during the tournament--illustrates that. But part of my thinking is admittedly selfish. We are already taking a huge hit by losing Butler, Teague, Mitchell, & Vital. We are still going to every good next year with Flagler, Cryer, EJ, etc. leading the way but they all have limited experience. If Mayer goes, how many upperclassmen will we have?


Imagine being the player that gets to play 15 minutes a game and is expected to be hot every time. Hard to get into a rhythm. I saw games where Butler and Mitchell didn't light up at all. Besides most players drafted on projection.

And Mayer was really consistent in that role. There were games where he didn't get as many shots because he wasn't asked to shoot a ton within the flow of that particular game, but he had very few games this season where he shot the ball poorly.

Matthew Mayer's offensive efficiency numbers were of the charts good, particularly when you take his role and limited margin for error into account. This idea that he was some sort of wildcard is inaccurate.
BUCANDOIT82
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Take the Championship game as an example. He scored 2 points on only 2 shots. By the time he got into the game we were up double digits and all his teammates were rolling. He allowed them to take the shots. He was a factor in all 5 other games and a huge factor in the Wisconsin and Villanova games.
Ewalker80
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Texasjeremy said:

The biggest reason not to come back is if he felt he could not improve his draft stock (with the major increase in playing time and becoming a main option its hard to believe he wouldn't)

2020 DRAFT CONTRACTS
ROUND 1
1. Anthony Edwards - 4 years, $44.3M ($20.0M guaranteed)
2. James Wiseman - 4 years, $39.6M ($17.9M guaranteed)
3. LaMelo Ball - 4 years, $35.6M ($16.1M guaranteed)
4. Patrick Williams - 4 years, $32.1M ($14.5M guaranteed)
5. Isaac Okoro - 4 years, $29.1M ($13.1M guaranteed)
6. Onyeka Okongwu - 4 years, $26.4M ($11.9M guaranteed)
7. Killian Hayes - 4 years, $24.1M ($10.9M guaranteed)
8. Obi Toppin - 4 years, $22.1M ($10.0M guaranteed)
9. Deni Avdija - 4 years, $20.3M ($9.2M guaranteed)
10. Jalen Smith - 4 years, $19.3M ($8.7M guaranteed)
11. Devin Vassell - 4 years, $18.6M ($8.3M guaranteed)
12. Tyrese Haliburton - 4 years, $17.9M ($7.9M guaranteed)
13. Kira Lewis - 4 years, $17.2M ($7.5M guaranteed)
14. Aaron Nesmith - 4 years, $16.5M ($7.1M guaranteed)
15. Cole Anthony - 4 years, $15.9M ($6.7M guaranteed)
16. Isaiah Stewart - 4 years, $15.1M ($6.4M guaranteed)
17. Aleksej Pokusevski - 4 years, $14.3M ($6.1M guaranteed)
18. Josh Green - 4 years, $13.6M ($5.8M guaranteed)
19. Saddiq Bey - 4 years, $13.0M ($5.5M guaranteed)
20. Precious Achiuwa - 4 years, $12.5M ($5.3M guaranteed)
21. Tyrese Maxey - 4 years, $12.2M ($5.1M guaranteed)
22. Zeke Nnaji - 4 years, $11.8M ($4.9M guaranteed)
23. Leandro Bolmaro - Did Not Sign
24. RJ Hampton - 4 years, $9.7M ($3.1M guaranteed)
25. Immanuel Quickley - 4 years, $10.8M ($4.3M guaranteed)
26. Payton Pritchard - 4 years, $10.4M ($4.2M guaranteed)
27. Udoka Azubuike - 4 years, $10.2M ($4.1M guaranteed)
28. Jaden McDaniels - 4 years, $10.1M ($4.0M guaranteed)
29. Malachi Flynn - 4 years, $10.0M ($4.0M guaranteed)
30. Desmond Bane - 4 years, $9.9M ($4.0M guaranteed)

ROUND 2
31. Tyrell Terry - 4 years, $6.5M ($4.6M guaranteed)
32. Vernon Carey - 4 years, $6.6M ($4.7M guaranteed)
33. Daniel Oturu - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
34. Theo Maledon - 4 years, $7.8M ($4.0M guaranteed)
35. Xavier Tillman - 4 years, $6.5M ($4.6M guaranteed)
36. Tyler Bey - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
37. Vit Krejci - Did Not Sign
38. Saben Lee - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
39. Elijah Hughes - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
40. Robert Woodard - 4 years, $6.7M ($3.0M guaranteed)
41. Tre Jones - 3 years, $4.2M ($2.4M guaranteed)
42. Nick Richards - 3 years, $4.3M ($2.5M guaranteed)
43. Jahmi'us Ramsey - 3 years, $4.3M ($2.5M guaranteed)
44. Marko Simonovic - Did Not Sign
45. Jordan Nwora - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
46. CJ Elleby - 2 years, $2.4M ($2.4M guaranteed)
47. Yam Madar - Did Not Sign
48. Nico Mannion - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
49. Isaiah Joe - 3 years, $4.2M ($2.4M guaranteed)
50. Skylar Mays - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
51. Justinian Jessup - Did Not Sign
52. Kenyon Martin, Jr. - 4 years, $6.1M ($898K guaranteed)
53. Cassius Winston - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
54. Cassius Stanley - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
55. Jay Scrubb - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
56. Grant Riller - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
57. Reggie Perry - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
58. Paul Reed - 3 years, $3.9M ($609K guaranteed)
59. Jalen Harris - 2 Way Contract ($449K)
60. Sam Merrill - 2 years, $2.4M ($898K guaranteed)
Mayer's comments make me think he's well aware of the rapid drop off after the beginning of the second round and he's coming back unless he's pretty sure he makes it into that upper tier of salaries you get in 1st round and early 2d (>$1M guaranteed). Based on what I've seen I don't think he'll get 1st round or high 2nd round grade as a consensus.

Compare him to some others in mock drafts that grade players through the second round, and you'll see why. It's easy to say "he's 6' 9" and can shoot and dribble and has unique skills," but there's a lot of high upside players in this draft and there's a reason some boards don't even have him in the top 80. Others ranked ahead of him have similar upsides but don't have the risk that comes from him being a bench player last year----GMs have to look at both upside and floor.


Here are a couple players that are currently graded about where Mayer would want to be graded to return. And they are right on the edge of Mayer's floor for returning.

[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/joe-wieskamp][/url]Joe Wieskamp - graded at about 45 (shot 46% from three)
[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/joe-wieskamp][/url]SF | Iowa
[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/joe-wieskamp][/url]
6'6"
212 lbs
Junior
21.7 yrs
18.3
PTS

8.2
REB

2.1
AST

0.4

BLK
1.2
STL

[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/luka-garza][/url]Luka Garza
[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/luka-garza][/url]C | Iowa
[url=http://www.tankathon.com/players/luka-garza][/url]
6'11"
265 lbs
Senior
22.3 yrs
27.6
PTS

10.0
REB

2.0
AST

1.8
BLK

0.8
STL

If you were making a recommendation to the GM and your job was on the line, which would you take, Mayer or one of these two? Maybe you argue Mayer has a comparable upside, but the risk is also much greater.

Also I think the 59% FT percentage might really hurt him, and is an EASY way to improve his status next year, in addition to showing he can show comparable efficiency as a starter. If you are advising an NBA team are you going to put your neck on the line for a guy that can't show he can shoot FTs much better than Shaq but at the 3, and has never started? Garza shot >70% FT last year and was > 80% one year by comparison. Maybe, but most will think twice. An NBA team has to account for the risk that his efficiency decreases as a starter, so if he can remove that risk his draft stock rises. he can also likely match or increase his 39% 3P percentage, which is where much of his value lies in the modern NBA. Almost every player on Baylor's team increased their percentage from last year, and that has been a pretty consistent trend for Baylor players in recent years because of all the work they put in, and Mayer will likely do the same.

If he's betting on himself to work hard and continue to improve, I think the stronger economic case will likely be to return.

tommie
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IowaBear said:

He's gone based on ? This mock draft? LOL I could draw names from a hat and it would be a better mock draft


You're bball knowledgeable. Put on your GM hat. At 27, would you want a one and done or a raw dude? They are drafting prospects.

I see him gone because some team will take Jaden Springer or Keon Johnson. Both might be studs. It's all "potential"
BUCANDOIT82
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For those who forget just how much better Mayer was as a freshman than many of the freshman mocked into this year's first round just sit back and enjoy a couple of minutes of highlights in the TCU game from a couple of years ago:

BUCANDOIT82
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He is ranked 18th on this NBA Draft Board:

http://hoopobsession.com/HO2021NBADraft.html
IowaBear
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That mock has Kispert at 6th LOL.
Matt's a great talent and is going to make a TON of money playing the league. But he's not getting drafted 18th. I'll take that bet with anyone on this board. Hell I'll throw my street bike into that bet. Call me a hater BUCANDOIt, But it's not it's being realistic. That said if he's told he can go first rd and feels safe about it then go make the money young man.
Ewalker80
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BUCANDOIT82 said:

He is ranked 18th on this NBA Draft Board:

http://hoopobsession.com/HO2021NBADraft.html
this site doesn't even purport to be a mock draft.

"This is a ranking (not a 'mock-draft')."

I don't think there's much value to any site that isn't actually trying to predict what NBA teams are likely to do. a "ranking" of this dude's list of best players doesn't mean much.
bear2be2
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BUCANDOIT82 said:

For those who forget just how much better Mayer was as a freshman than many of the freshman mocked into this year's first round just sit back and enjoy a couple of minutes of highlights in the TCU game from a couple of years ago:


Matthew Mayer was a disaster as a freshman. I loved the guy and told everyone then how good he would be, but Mayer was really, really bad his first year on campus.

He shot 33.1 percent from the field, was a black hole once the ball touched his hands and struggled mightily on the defensive end. The skill set was there as a young'n, but he had no idea at that stage how to use it effectively at the college level.

To his credit, he made huge improvement between his freshman and sophomore seasons and took another massive step last year as a junior. I'd love to get to see him continue that progression as a senior, but I'd also understand why an NBA team might be enamored enough by his potential to spend a first-round pick on him.
IowaBear
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A true credit to Drew's ability to develop players. Endless list of guys. Maston, Prince, Jmot, Mayer are a few recent ones who really come to mind
bear2be2
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IowaBear said:

A true credit to Drew's ability to develop players. Endless list of guys. Maston, Prince, Jmot, Mayer are a few recent ones who really come to mind
Indeed. It was also further proof that most guys -- even those with NBA ceilings -- aren't ready to come in and dominate at the high-major college level as freshmen.

Taurean Prince was the exact same way. You could see his freshman year that he had an enormous ceiling, but he was nowhere near ready to realize that potential at that stage.
Ewalker80
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Here are all the players listed by ESPN (thought of as the most knowledgeable draft board by many) between Mayer (56) and where Mayer wants to go (AT LEAST 45 if not top 30 or so). If you want to make a case that Mayer is likely to go in the top 45, you should be able to show that he should go ahead of most or all of these players based on his entire upside and risk profile. That's a more useful exercise than putting up some random highlights or stats without a comparison. Of course he's an awesome player and athlete with a bunch of cool highlights or he wouldn't be an nba draft pick. We're talking about comparing his profile with other world class basketball players.

45 Ariel Huporti Germany
46 Juhann Begarin Auadeloupe
47 Jeremiah Robinson Earl
48 Matthew Hurt Duke
49 Kessler Edwards Pepperdine
50 Johnny Juzang UCLA
52 Isaiah Todd
52 David Johnson Louisville
53 Isaiah Livers Michigan
54 Gabriele Procida Italy
55 MATT
56 Luka Garza

Luka and Juzang are probably useful comparisons because most people probably know who they are or at least watched Juzang play some in the Final Four. If you want to argue Mayer will be projected where he wants to be, these are the kinds of players he would need to be projected before.

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