whiterock said:

---

Sam Rayburn had an adage about people like her - "a jackass can kick a barn down, but it takes a carpenter to build one."

---

Are your MAGA Republican Congressmen kicking the barn down on this Speaker vote?

The ESTEEMED new Governor of Arizona.

Katie Hobbs bursting out laughing when she is asked to repeat her support and defense of the Constitution pic.twitter.com/ncPwgqeAra

— Tyler Bowyer (@tylerbowyer) January 2, 2023

Jack Bauer said:

---

The ESTEEMED new Governor of Arizona.

Katie Hobbs bursting out laughing when she is asked to repeat her support and defense of the Constitution pic.twitter.com/ncPwgqeAra

— Tyler Bowyer (@tylerbowyer) January 2, 2023

---

the voters have spoken.. enjoy it AZ!

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Rayburn had an adage about people like her - "a jackass can kick a barn down, but it takes a carpenter to build one."

---

Are your MAGA Republican Congressmen kicking the barn down on this Speaker vote?

---

Maybe, maybe not. Depends on what their end game is.

You should be more worried about the moderates. They could get frustrated and cross over to vote for Jeffries, or get enough Dems to join the moderate GOP'ers to elect McCarthy or someone more moderate in exchange for rules/promises that would move the caucus left. in which case we would then argue about who/what regarding jackasses barns.

McCarthy has been endorsed by Trump and by his most likely contenders, including the foremost member of the Freedom Caucus (Jim Jordan). So I suspect this is a small group trying to get someone else elected, most likely Jordan.

Also could be exactly what the 5 resisters say it is - an effort to prevent putting the alligator in charge of draining the swamp. McCarthy has by any reasonable estimation earned the right to be speaker HE has overperformed at the ballot box better than anyone else on our side. But he is hardly a conservative lion. I personally know of one example which I can't share.

It'll be good theater. Get some popcorn & watch.

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Rayburn had an adage about people like her - "a jackass can kick a barn down, but it takes a carpenter to build one."

---

Are your MAGA Republican Congressmen kicking the barn down on this Speaker vote?

---

Maybe, maybe not. Depends on what their end game is.

You should be more worried about the moderates. They could get frustrated and cross over to vote for Jeffries, or get enough Dems to join the moderate GOP'ers to elect McCarthy or someone more moderate in exchange for rules/promises that would move the caucus left. in which case we would then argue about who/what regarding jackasses barns.

McCarthy has been endorsed by Trump and by his most likely contenders, including the foremost member of the Freedom Caucus (Jim Jordan). So I suspect this is a small group trying to get someone else elected, most likely Jordan.

Also could be exactly what the 5 resisters say it is - an effort to prevent putting the alligator in charge of draining the swamp. McCarthy has by any reasonable estimation earned the right to be speaker HE has overperformed at the ballot box better than anyone else on our side. But he is hardly a conservative lion. I personally know of one example which I can't share.

It'll be good theater. Get some popcorn & watch.

---

Project much.

I wish you guys well. It is important.

Do you think Jordan can get enough votes?

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Rayburn had an adage about people like her - "a jackass can kick a barn down, but it takes a carpenter to build one."

---

Are your MAGA Republican Congressmen kicking the barn down on this Speaker vote?

---

Maybe, maybe not. Depends on what their end game is.

You should be more worried about the moderates. They could get frustrated and cross over to vote for Jeffries, or get enough Dems to join the moderate GOP'ers to elect McCarthy or someone more moderate in exchange for rules/promises that would move the caucus left. in which case we would then argue about who/what regarding jackasses barns.

McCarthy has been endorsed by Trump and by his most likely contenders, including the foremost member of the Freedom Caucus (Jim Jordan). So I suspect this is a small group trying to get someone else elected, most likely Jordan.

Also could be exactly what the 5 resisters say it is - an effort to prevent putting the alligator in charge of draining the swamp. McCarthy has by any reasonable estimation earned the right to be speaker HE has overperformed at the ballot box better than anyone else on our side. But he is hardly a conservative lion. I personally know of one example which I can't share.

It'll be good theater. Get some popcorn & watch.

---

Project much.

I wish you guys well. It is important.

Do you think Jordan can get enough votes?

---

hard to see a scenario where he would. The cold-hard truth is, there are too many moderates and they tend to be more afraid of the Freedom Caucus than the Democrats. Bill Flores is a good example. Good dude. Played well with both establishments and grassroots. Did NOT like Freedom Caucus. Actually withdrew an endorsement from a candidate who said she would join the FC. Bill, when he was head of the Republican Study Committee, was briefly a frontrunner to replace Boehner. Bill was a "fix it guy." The type of person it takes to make any organization successful. He was plenty conservative in his views, but put on a different set of lenses when there was a task at hand. Looked to cut deals that got parts of the platform into law. Had ZERO time for the virtue posture. He'd have been the most conservative speaker of our lifetime. I think he'd have handled the grassroots better, too. But he still would never have taken the rhetorical shot that the grassroots need to hear. Just not the way he's wired. He'd at best be able to tone down the moderate/FC tension, not end it.

The moderates are wired differently, too. They live in blue states, where conservatives have constraints that don't exist in red states. They live in a world where one cannot indulge in conservatism too much, as it's a threat to re-election. So they end up, de facto, defending the Overton Window. The Dems they can deal with....they have to at home, so it seems natural. It's the conservatives that are always presenting them with uncomfortable scenarios that seem to risk it all.

I firmly believe the thing we need most is red-state leadership. It brings a broader mindset about what is possible than with blue state leadership. But at least a third of the caucus is blue state moderates. And they, in their own way, are more unreasonable than the right wing nutjobs. And there are more of the blue state moderate nutjobs than the far right wing nutjobs.

The scenario for Jordan runs like this: he's endorsed McCarthy (actually gave a speech for him) which ostensibly removes him as a "threat" (from perspective of McCarthy and moderates). But after a day or four of failed votes, at some point, it becomes obvious McCarthy can't win (see dynamic here about "Trump can't win). Then everyone will look to the leadership line-up. Stefanik will be obvious for moderate support, Scalise for mainline conservatives. Jordan would have to back one of them, too (I'd advise Stefanik). Then, finally, after a day or two of Scalise and Stefanik failing to get to 218, PERHAPS Jordan might emerge as a compromise candidate (Stefanik paying him back with an endorsement). But his election really wouldn't be a compromise. It would be a victory for the conservative third of the conference over the moderate third. And I'm not sure the moderates would stand for it.

just thinking out loud....

all that said, odds still would seem to be with McCarthy.

What I don't know is the inside baseball stuff on Mccarthy's relationship with the 5 holdouts. Did he whip them too hard, too many times? Are they going to deny him the gavel just to show Stefanik/Scalise/Jordan/whoever the successor might be that there is a price for whipping them too hard? That's the scenario for McCarthy failing.

again....thinking out loud.

The FC does tend to get whipped a lot harder than the moderates do. So this is not necessarily an ego trip for the FC. At some point, they have to poke back.

And thru all this MTG is very vocal in support for McCarthy.......

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Sam Rayburn had an adage about people like her - "a jackass can kick a barn down, but it takes a carpenter to build one."

---

Are your MAGA Republican Congressmen kicking the barn down on this Speaker vote?

---

Maybe, maybe not. Depends on what their end game is.

You should be more worried about the moderates. They could get frustrated and cross over to vote for Jeffries, or get enough Dems to join the moderate GOP'ers to elect McCarthy or someone more moderate in exchange for rules/promises that would move the caucus left. in which case we would then argue about who/what regarding jackasses barns.

McCarthy has been endorsed by Trump and by his most likely contenders, including the foremost member of the Freedom Caucus (Jim Jordan). So I suspect this is a small group trying to get someone else elected, most likely Jordan.

Also could be exactly what the 5 resisters say it is - an effort to prevent putting the alligator in charge of draining the swamp. McCarthy has by any reasonable estimation earned the right to be speaker HE has overperformed at the ballot box better than anyone else on our side. But he is hardly a conservative lion. I personally know of one example which I can't share.

It'll be good theater. Get some popcorn & watch.

---

Project much.

I wish you guys well. It is important.

Do you think Jordan can get enough votes?

---

hard to see a scenario where he would. The cold-hard truth is, there are too many moderates and they tend to be more afraid of the Freedom Caucus than the Democrats. Bill Flores is a good example. Good dude. Played well with both establishments and grassroots. Did NOT like Freedom Caucus. Actually withdrew an endorsement from a candidate who said she would join the FC. Bill, when he was head of the Republican Study Committee, was briefly a frontrunner to replace Boehner. Bill was a "fix it guy." The type of person it takes to make any organization successful. He was plenty conservative in his views, but put on a different set of lenses when there was a task at hand. Looked to cut deals that got parts of the platform into law. Had ZERO time for the virtue posture. He'd have been the most conservative speaker of our lifetime. I think he'd have handled the grassroots better, too. But he still would never have taken the rhetorical shot that the grassroots need to hear. Just not the way he's wired. He'd at best be able to tone down the moderate/FC tension, not end it.

The moderates are wired differently, too. They live in blue states, where conservatives have constraints that don't exist in red states. They live in a world where one cannot indulge in conservatism too much, as it's a threat to re-election. So they end up, de facto, defending the Overton Window. The Dems they can deal with....they have to at home, so it seems natural. It's the conservatives that are always presenting them with uncomfortable scenarios that seem to risk it all.

I firmly believe the thing we need most is red-state leadership. It brings a broader mindset about what is possible than with blue state leadership. But at least a third of the caucus is blue state moderates. And they, in their own way, are more unreasonable than the right wing nutjobs. And there are more of the blue state moderate nutjobs than the far right wing nutjobs.

The scenario for Jordan runs like this: he's endorsed McCarthy (actually gave a speech for him) which ostensibly removes him as a "threat" (from perspective of McCarthy and moderates). But after a day or four of failed votes, at some point, it becomes obvious McCarthy can't win (see dynamic here about "Trump can't win). Then everyone will look to the leadership line-up. Stefanik will be obvious for moderate support, Scalise for mainline conservatives. Jordan would have to back one of them, too (I'd advise Stefanik). Then, finally, after a day or two of Scalise and Stefanik failing to get to 218, PERHAPS Jordan might emerge as a compromise candidate (Stefanik paying him back with an endorsement). But his election really wouldn't be a compromise. It would be a victory for the conservative third of the conference over the moderate third. And I'm not sure the moderates would stand for it.

just thinking out loud....

---

Thanks