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FLBear5630
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In reply to ScottS • 5:41a, 8/29/24
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake is perceived as a vindictive crack pot? She has all of Trump's meaness and none of his humanity and humor. Bad combination.
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sombear
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 8:04a, 8/29/24
Redbrickbear said:
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake has always been a failure in Arizona for some reason.

Obviously I'm not in the State so I can not explain it…but it's a noticeable thing.

Trump does well…Lake does not
I wouldn't say Trump does well. He's only the second Republican to lose AZ, and his 2016 win was by one of the smallest margins. HIs approval rating in AZ is low 40s as it is in most other contested states. AZ is a toss-up.

And think about this. AZ remains a toss-up, yet immigration is the top issue, and inflation is #2.

Trump hand-picked Lake, and she has run two of the worst campaigns you'll ever see. She is a former liberal Dem who has flip-flopped, even recently, more than Kamala, and was famous for saying at two rallies, "We don't want McCain voters." I certainly have my issues with McCain, but you just don't say that in AZ.

Also, the AZ GOP is a complete mess.
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boognish_bear
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8:29a, 8/29/24
Doesn't really look right. I keep seeing how Republican voter registration is outpacing Dems in many states.

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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 8:34a, 8/29/24
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake has always been a failure in Arizona for some reason.

Obviously I'm not in the State so I can not explain it…but it's a noticeable thing.

Trump does well…Lake does not
I wouldn't say Trump does well. He's only the second Republican to lose AZ, and his 2016 win was by one of the smallest margins. HIs approval rating in AZ is low 40s as it is in most other contested states. AZ is a toss-up.

And think about this. AZ remains a toss-up, yet immigration is the top issue, and inflation is #2.

Trump hand-picked Lake, and she has run two of the worst campaigns you'll ever see. She is a former liberal Dem who has flip-flopped, even recently, more than Kamala, and was famous for saying at two rallies, "We don't want McCain voters." I certainly have my issues with McCain, but you just don't say that in AZ.

Also, the AZ GOP is a complete mess.
McCain wing of the AZ party is vindictive. Cross them and they will organize to vote Dem to defeat you. GOP moderates tend to be like that everywhere. The AZ faction is just larger and meaner than most.



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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 8:37a, 8/29/24
whiterock said:
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake has always been a failure in Arizona for some reason.

Obviously I'm not in the State so I can not explain it…but it's a noticeable thing.

Trump does well…Lake does not
I wouldn't say Trump does well. He's only the second Republican to lose AZ, and his 2016 win was by one of the smallest margins. HIs approval rating in AZ is low 40s as it is in most other contested states. AZ is a toss-up.

And think about this. AZ remains a toss-up, yet immigration is the top issue, and inflation is #2.

Trump hand-picked Lake, and she has run two of the worst campaigns you'll ever see. She is a former liberal Dem who has flip-flopped, even recently, more than Kamala, and was famous for saying at two rallies, "We don't want McCain voters." I certainly have my issues with McCain, but you just don't say that in AZ.

Also, the AZ GOP is a complete mess.
McCain wing of the AZ party is vindictive. Cross them and they will organize to vote Dem to defeat you. GOP moderates tend to be like that everywhere. The AZ faction is just larger and meaner than most.



Kettle meet pot . . . .
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Redbrickbear
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In reply to sombear • 9:07a, 8/29/24
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake has always been a failure in Arizona for some reason.

Obviously I'm not in the State so I can not explain it…but it's a noticeable thing.

Trump does well…Lake does not
I wouldn't say Trump does well. He's only the second Republican to lose AZ, and his 2016 win was by one of the smallest margins.

I'm sure mass legal and illegal immigration in Arizona has nothing to do with that.....


[2018: 960,275 immigrants made up 13% of the population of Arizona. 431,667 immigrants had naturalized, and at least 275,000 were undocumented]

We can also be sure the undocumented migrant population is much much higher than reported.
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Mothra
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In reply to boognish_bear • 9:28a, 8/29/24
boognish_bear said:
So the unhinged re-tread crackpot who lost the governor's race is now losing the senate race.

Man, I didn't see that coming.

I just hope to God we can move on from this broad.
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Mothra
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 9:29a, 8/29/24
Redbrickbear said:
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake has always been a failure in Arizona for some reason.

Obviously I'm not in the State so I can not explain it…but it's a noticeable thing.

Trump does well…Lake does not
Trump's hand-picked candidates generally fare poorly in elections. See 2022.

He's not a very good judge of these things. The selection of Vance as his VP candidate is a perfect example.
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sombear
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 9:29a, 8/29/24
Redbrickbear said:
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake has always been a failure in Arizona for some reason.

Obviously I'm not in the State so I can not explain it…but it's a noticeable thing.

Trump does well…Lake does not
I wouldn't say Trump does well. He's only the second Republican to lose AZ, and his 2016 win was by one of the smallest margins.

I'm sure mass legal and illegal immigration in Arizona has nothing to do with that.....


[2018: 960,275 immigrants made up 13% of the population of Arizona. 431,667 immigrants had naturalized, and at least 275,000 were undocumented]

We can also be sure the undocumented migrant population is much much higher than reported.
I mean, Ducey beat a Hispanic in 2018 by 14 points.

Biden only won Hispanics by around 57-43.

Trump's problem, as it was all over the Country, was losing the burbs. He lost freaking Maricopa for goodness sakes.
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ScottS
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In reply to Mothra • 9:54a, 8/29/24
Mothra said:
Redbrickbear said:
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake has always been a failure in Arizona for some reason.

Obviously I'm not in the State so I can not explain it…but it's a noticeable thing.

Trump does well…Lake does not
Trump's hand-picked candidates generally fare poorly in elections. See 2022.

He's not a very good judge of these things. The selection of Vance as his VP candidate is a perfect example.

If he doesn't win enough in the house and senate, he could get elected and then impeached/removed.
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ScottS
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In reply to sombear • 9:55a, 8/29/24
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake has always been a failure in Arizona for some reason.

Obviously I'm not in the State so I can not explain it…but it's a noticeable thing.

Trump does well…Lake does not
I wouldn't say Trump does well. He's only the second Republican to lose AZ, and his 2016 win was by one of the smallest margins.

I'm sure mass legal and illegal immigration in Arizona has nothing to do with that.....


[2018: 960,275 immigrants made up 13% of the population of Arizona. 431,667 immigrants had naturalized, and at least 275,000 were undocumented]

We can also be sure the undocumented migrant population is much much higher than reported.
I mean, Ducey beat a Hispanic in 2018 by 14 points.

Biden only won Hispanics by around 57-43.

Trump's problem, as it was all over the Country, was losing the burbs. He lost freaking Maricopa for goodness sakes.

Suburban women?
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sombear
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In reply to ScottS • 9:59a, 8/29/24
ScottS said:
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake has always been a failure in Arizona for some reason.

Obviously I'm not in the State so I can not explain it…but it's a noticeable thing.

Trump does well…Lake does not
I wouldn't say Trump does well. He's only the second Republican to lose AZ, and his 2016 win was by one of the smallest margins.

I'm sure mass legal and illegal immigration in Arizona has nothing to do with that.....


[2018: 960,275 immigrants made up 13% of the population of Arizona. 431,667 immigrants had naturalized, and at least 275,000 were undocumented]

We can also be sure the undocumented migrant population is much much higher than reported.
I mean, Ducey beat a Hispanic in 2018 by 14 points.

Biden only won Hispanics by around 57-43.

Trump's problem, as it was all over the Country, was losing the burbs. He lost freaking Maricopa for goodness sakes.

Suburban women?
Believe it or not, the gender gap isn't too bad in AZ.
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whiterock
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10:20a, 8/29/24
Trump leads ticket splitters by 22.

The problem is not that Trump selects terrible candidates. It's that there are so few candidates like Trump.


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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 10:46a, 8/29/24
whiterock said:
Trump leads ticket splitters by 22.

The problem is not that Trump selects terrible candidates. It's that there are so few candidates like Trump.


Yes, more Walkers, Oz, Lakes, Bolducs, Mastrianos, Dixons, Schmidts, and Masters, and fewer big winners - Youngkins, Kemps, Duceys, Hogans, Desantis, and Abbotts . . . .

Trump is performing a little better than the GOP candidates in those states solely because they are running against incumbents.
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 11:10a, 8/29/24
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Trump leads ticket splitters by 22.

The problem is not that Trump selects terrible candidates. It's that there are so few candidates like Trump.


Yes, more Walkers, Oz, Lakes, Bolducs, Mastrianos, Dixons, Schmidts, and Masters, and fewer big winners - Youngkins, Kemps, Duceys, Hogans, Desantis, and Abbotts . . . .

Trump is performing a little better than the GOP candidates in those states solely because they are running against incumbents.
or....more likely, its because Trump has crossover appeal they cannot match.

highly illogical that a populist Trump could be so effective with independents (which most public polls show he's winning, whether he's winning overall or not) yet his endorsement becomes kryptonite for down-ballot candidates.


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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 11:24a, 8/29/24
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Trump leads ticket splitters by 22.

The problem is not that Trump selects terrible candidates. It's that there are so few candidates like Trump.


Yes, more Walkers, Oz, Lakes, Bolducs, Mastrianos, Dixons, Schmidts, and Masters, and fewer big winners - Youngkins, Kemps, Duceys, Hogans, Desantis, and Abbotts . . . .

Trump is performing a little better than the GOP candidates in those states solely because they are running against incumbents.
or....more likely, its because Trump has crossover appeal they cannot match.

highly illogical that a populist Trump could be so effective with independents (which most public polls show he's winning, whether he's winning overall or not) yet his endorsement becomes kryptonite for down-ballot candidates.


I think it's more he just picks awful candidates.

But, look, you can't dispute Trump's unfavorable #s. They've basically been high 30s to low 40s, with some temporary bounces into mid-40s.

Those unfavorables can only generate negative coattails.

Trump's greatest strength as a candidate is that he has had historically weak opponents. That is a fact.

When MAGA candidates run against incumbents or even just average candidates, they don't do well. All the data is there.
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Mothra
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In reply to sombear • 12:03p, 8/29/24
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Trump leads ticket splitters by 22.

The problem is not that Trump selects terrible candidates. It's that there are so few candidates like Trump.


Yes, more Walkers, Oz, Lakes, Bolducs, Mastrianos, Dixons, Schmidts, and Masters, and fewer big winners - Youngkins, Kemps, Duceys, Hogans, Desantis, and Abbotts . . . .

Trump is performing a little better than the GOP candidates in those states solely because they are running against incumbents.
or....more likely, its because Trump has crossover appeal they cannot match.

highly illogical that a populist Trump could be so effective with independents (which most public polls show he's winning, whether he's winning overall or not) yet his endorsement becomes kryptonite for down-ballot candidates.


I think it's more he just picks awful candidates.
This.
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historian
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 12:17p, 8/29/24
Redbrickbear said:
sombear said:
Redbrickbear said:
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?


Lake has always been a failure in Arizona for some reason.

Obviously I'm not in the State so I can not explain it…but it's a noticeable thing.

Trump does well…Lake does not
I wouldn't say Trump does well. He's only the second Republican to lose AZ, and his 2016 win was by one of the smallest margins.

I'm sure mass legal and illegal immigration in Arizona has nothing to do with that.....


[2018: 960,275 immigrants made up 13% of the population of Arizona. 431,667 immigrants had naturalized, and at least 275,000 were undocumented]

We can also be sure the undocumented migrant population is much much higher than reported.

… and the fascists will make sure the non citizens vote in large numbers for Kommie Kamala, maybe even multiple times.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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historian
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In reply to sombear • 12:19p, 8/29/24
Using "only" with a 14 point margin doesn't make sense. That's a landslide.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
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whiterock
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12:42p, 8/29/24
Nate Silver analysis showing what Rasmussen has been suggesting - Harris has peaked.

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sombear
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In reply to historian • 1:11p, 8/29/24
historian said:
Using "only" with a 14 point margin doesn't make sense. That's a landslide.
Not at all. A 14% margin among about 22% of the vote is nothing, especially in AZ where there are so few Black voters.

And that's not what costed Trump the burbs.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to ScottS • 1:59p, 8/29/24
ScottS said:
boognish_bear said:
Question, why is Trump polling way better than Lake in AZ?
trump is trump and Lake is an idiot. She told McCain lovers to go away and never vote for her. They listened.
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2:04p, 8/29/24
The worst of them has a tied race

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4th and Inches
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In reply to whiterock • 2:20p, 8/29/24
whiterock said:
The worst of them has a tied race

this one is interesting. The samples arent that bad at first glance but this is the only poll I have seen where the Dem canidate got 98-1

Most other polls are showing a wider spread with 3-4 not voting for Harris.
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sombear
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 2:39p, 8/29/24
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
The worst of them has a tied race

this one is interesting. The samples arent that bad at first glance but this is the only poll I have seen where the Dem canidate got 98-1

Most other polls are showing a wider spread with 3-4 not voting for Harris.
Even if Harrs wins national vote by 1%, Trump will win the election.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to sombear • 2:58p, 8/29/24
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
The worst of them has a tied race

this one is interesting. The samples arent that bad at first glance but this is the only poll I have seen where the Dem canidate got 98-1

Most other polls are showing a wider spread with 3-4 not voting for Harris.
Even if Harrs wins national vote by 1%, Trump will win the election.


yes, this is another terrible poll for Harris.

She is basically polling where Biden was in the swings when they replaced him.

Long road to Nov 5th for both sides
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boognish_bear
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3:08p, 8/29/24
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whiterock
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In reply to sombear • 3:38p, 8/29/24
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
The worst of them has a tied race

this one is interesting. The samples arent that bad at first glance but this is the only poll I have seen where the Dem canidate got 98-1

Most other polls are showing a wider spread with 3-4 not voting for Harris.
Even if Harrs wins national vote by 1%, Trump will win the election.

Baris agrees


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sombear
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In reply to whiterock • 4:20p, 8/29/24
whiterock said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
The worst of them has a tied race

this one is interesting. The samples arent that bad at first glance but this is the only poll I have seen where the Dem canidate got 98-1

Most other polls are showing a wider spread with 3-4 not voting for Harris.
Even if Harrs wins national vote by 1%, Trump will win the election.

Baris agrees


Probably even 2%
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ScottS
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In reply to sombear • 4:30p, 8/29/24
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
The worst of them has a tied race

this one is interesting. The samples arent that bad at first glance but this is the only poll I have seen where the Dem canidate got 98-1

Most other polls are showing a wider spread with 3-4 not voting for Harris.
Even if Harrs wins national vote by 1%, Trump will win the election.

Baris agrees


Probably even 2%

Someone dropped an S bomb.
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4th and Inches
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In reply to ScottS • 4:34p, 8/29/24
ScottS said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
4th and Inches said:
whiterock said:
The worst of them has a tied race

this one is interesting. The samples arent that bad at first glance but this is the only poll I have seen where the Dem canidate got 98-1

Most other polls are showing a wider spread with 3-4 not voting for Harris.
Even if Harrs wins national vote by 1%, Trump will win the election.

Baris agrees


Probably even 2%

Someone dropped an S bomb.
Harris camp when they saw the polls
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4:38p, 8/29/24
He comes off better in interviews than he does speeches. They need to quit trying to write jokes for him. Not his strength.

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boognish_bear
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4:41p, 8/29/24
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4:57p, 8/29/24
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4th and Inches
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In reply to boognish_bear • 6:03p, 8/29/24
boognish_bear said:
he isnt wrong.. most that are put out are wrong and private internals are expensive.

Both sides dont like the polls..
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