4th and Inches said:

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whiterock said:

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The worst of them has a tied race

2024 National GE:

Harris 49% (+1)
Trump 48%

Harris 49% (+2)
Trump 47%
Stein 1%
Oliver 1%

.@QuinnipiacPoll, 1,611 LV, 8/23-27

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 29, 2024

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this one is interesting. The samples arent that bad at first glance but this is the only poll I have seen where the Dem canidate got 98-1

Most other polls are showing a wider spread with 3-4 not voting for Harris.

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Well, that's it. Trump can't lose. If he does it was stolen

Osodecentx said:

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4th and Inches said:

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whiterock said:

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The worst of them has a tied race

2024 National GE:

Harris 49% (+1)
Trump 48%

Harris 49% (+2)
Trump 47%
Stein 1%
Oliver 1%

.@QuinnipiacPoll, 1,611 LV, 8/23-27

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 29, 2024

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this one is interesting. The samples arent that bad at first glance but this is the only poll I have seen where the Dem canidate got 98-1

Most other polls are showing a wider spread with 3-4 not voting for Harris.

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Well, that's it. Trump can't lose. If he does it was stolen

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your words not mine.. anybody dunking based on a poll in August is a moron.

Long road ahead.

On the flip side, pollsters who continue to steam head using the same cross tab methodology as 16 and 20 will continue to look stupid in November

Osodecentx said:

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4th and Inches said:

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whiterock said:

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The worst of them has a tied race

2024 National GE:

Harris 49% (+1)
Trump 48%

Harris 49% (+2)
Trump 47%
Stein 1%
Oliver 1%

.@QuinnipiacPoll, 1,611 LV, 8/23-27

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 29, 2024

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this one is interesting. The samples arent that bad at first glance but this is the only poll I have seen where the Dem canidate got 98-1

Most other polls are showing a wider spread with 3-4 not voting for Harris.

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Well, that's it. Trump can't lose. If he does it was stolen

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As long as that argument is good for Democrats, it's good for me.

If Donald Trump loses, today is the day he lost. The committed pro-life community could turn a blind eye, in part, to national abortion issues. But for Trump to weigh in on Florida as he did will be a bridge too far for too many.

— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) August 30, 2024

Jack Bauer said:

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Politico doesnt understand the executive branch

‘Our corrupt leadership’: Vance tries to tether Harris to Biden during Michigan rally https://t.co/0LWM4gq5C7

— POLITICO (@politico) August 27, 2024

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https://notthebee.com/article/okay-you-guys-who-wants-to-tell-politico

Trumps last stand is the debate. If he fumbles that it's over. You can whistle past the graveyard all you want around polling variances, but his campaign knows the real trends, and now he's changing (or refining) positions to try and pick up key demographics and constituencies he's losing ground with.

🚨 Post-DNC poll from Quinnipiac:

Harris 49% (+1)
Trump 48%

At this point in 2016, Hillary was up 10% in this poll. Biden was also up 10%.

This is brutal for Kamala Harris.

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) August 29, 2024

Oh they WISH!

"Summer COVID surge shows we may have to return to 2020 pandemic measures" (@TheHillOpinion) https://t.co/m0qZyTeW7T

— The Hill (@thehill) August 29, 2024

President Trump on Kamala's CNN "interview" tonight: "Why isn't it live? It's an interview that's going to be taped, edited, and then put out. That's not even an interview. And then she's doing it with her Vice President sitting there. So she's not very smart. When they ask her a… pic.twitter.com/7KuEZG3eHS

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) August 29, 2024

Jack Bauer said:

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DeSantis doesnt have the flash and the charisma but i belive he would a great POTUS

Gov. Ron DeSantis RIPS Kamala Harris' plan to tax unrealized gains:

"That will tank this economy. We will feel that in Florida big time. You will have capital flee from this country. An unrealized gain is not even a gain until you realize it. Values fluctuate."

"The whole thing… pic.twitter.com/hf164V3eQT

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 29, 2024

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Taxing unrealized gains is idiotic. It's a Marxist robbery using government to weaken the most productive members of society and to destroy the middle class. No one with a brain should support such a stupid idea. Naturally, it's Kommie Kamala's idea.

Americans subconciously dont like short leaders.

Kamala is 5'4" and looks 4'5" here
(Dana Bash is 5'2")

For every 50 likes I’ll make Kamala Harris smaller pic.twitter.com/QATgu2i2JM

— Sophie Louise Delquié (@SophieDelquie) August 30, 2024

ATL Bear said:

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Trumps last stand is the debate. If he fumbles that it's over. You can whistle past the graveyard all you want around polling variances, but his campaign knows the real trends, and now he's changing (or refining) positions to try and pick up key demographics and constituencies he's losing ground with.

---

Harris has peaked.. she has to shine in the debate to have a chance. Both need a good debate to win.

Jack Bauer said:

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Americans subconciously dont like short leaders.

Kamala is 5'4" and looks 4'5" here
(Dana Bash is 5'2")

For every 50 likes I’ll make Kamala Harris smaller pic.twitter.com/QATgu2i2JM

— Sophie Louise Delquié (@SophieDelquie) August 30, 2024

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not understanding why they did the interview in the staff break room..

Jack Bauer said:

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Oh they WISH!

"Summer COVID surge shows we may have to return to 2020 pandemic measures" (@TheHillOpinion) https://t.co/m0qZyTeW7T

— The Hill (@thehill) August 29, 2024

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the blooms usually last 3-6 weeks. It will be over by nov 5

Jack Bauer said:

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🚨 Post-DNC poll from Quinnipiac:

Harris 49% (+1)
Trump 48%

At this point in 2016, Hillary was up 10% in this poll. Biden was also up 10%.

This is brutal for Kamala Harris.

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) August 29, 2024

---

the polling on that one is interesting. 98-1 dems voting for Harris. Best that has ever happened was Biden 94%. Combine that with the enthusiasm level way up, this is a poll of super Dems and they pushed out the waffling Dems.

At Harris plus 1% it is still most likely an electoral loss. The swings polling coming out have shown well for Trump this week.

4th and Inches said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Trumps last stand is the debate. If he fumbles that it's over. You can whistle past the graveyard all you want around polling variances, but his campaign knows the real trends, and now he's changing (or refining) positions to try and pick up key demographics and constituencies he's losing ground with.

---

Harris has peaked.. she has to shine in the debate to have a chance. Both need a good debate to win.

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It's less about peaking and more about Trump falling, For both Rasmussen and WSJ to swing 3 points in a matter of weeks is serious reason for concern for a Republican candidate. Looking for something to indicate a landing for Trump, hard or soft. I was highly confident he would win Georgia. I'm not so sure now.

Jack Bauer said:

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DeSantis doesnt have the flash and the charisma but i belive he would a great POTUS

Gov. Ron DeSantis RIPS Kamala Harris' plan to tax unrealized gains:

"That will tank this economy. We will feel that in Florida big time. You will have capital flee from this country. An unrealized gain is not even a gain until you realize it. Values fluctuate."

"The whole thing… pic.twitter.com/hf164V3eQT

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 29, 2024

---

I agree. But if you look at a guy like Vance, Desantis definitely suffers from a public persona deficit in comparison. He is great on policy and would make a great president, but not everyone who can make a great president can be elected to the office.

Pat Buchanan was as great on policy and had a much better public persona than Desantis and he still - to my everlasting regret - lost to Bush. Had he been Reagan's successor the country would have been spared much of the suffering it has had in the Bush-Clinton-Obama years and the world would have been a much better place.

trump sounds genuinely shocked and disgusted here. listen to the emotion in his voice. like he can’t believe there’s no work ethic or sense of urgency among our leadership. https://t.co/Wn8UzgYbXX

— Logan Hall (@loganclarkhall) August 29, 2024

ATL Bear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Trumps last stand is the debate. If he fumbles that it's over. You can whistle past the graveyard all you want around polling variances, but his campaign knows the real trends, and now he's changing (or refining) positions to try and pick up key demographics and constituencies he's losing ground with.

---

Harris has peaked.. she has to shine in the debate to have a chance. Both need a good debate to win.

---

It's less about peaking and more about Trump falling, For both Rasmussen and WSJ to swing 3 points in a matter of weeks is serious reason for concern for a Republican candidate. Looking for something to indicate a landing for Trump, hard or soft. I was highly confident he would win Georgia. I'm not so sure now.

---

That seems to be consistent with the national polling average. Harris has peaked and been sitting at 49% for awhile as Trump falls, but it looks like he may have stopped the bleeding for now. I agree that the debate will be huge for both candidates.

4th and Inches said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

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🚨 Post-DNC poll from Quinnipiac:

Harris 49% (+1)
Trump 48%

At this point in 2016, Hillary was up 10% in this poll. Biden was also up 10%.

This is brutal for Kamala Harris.

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) August 29, 2024

---

the polling on that one is interesting. 98-1 dems voting for Harris. Best that has ever happened was Biden 94%. Combine that with the enthusiasm level way up, this is a poll of super Dems and they pushed out the waffling Dems.

At Harris plus 1% it is still most likely an electoral loss. The swings polling coming out have shown well for Trump this week.

---

Finally got some new internal info this morning.

Top-line: Better for Trump than anticipated; very tight race; no sustained convention bounce. All with one caveat:

Daily polling unusually volatile. For example, in a 3-day cycle in battleground states, Trump may have 4 point lead one day, then Harris a 3 point lead the next, then back to Trump. This happens but not so frequently, and unsure what it means, if anything.

In other words, no clear trend or pattern since convention.

Trump team still confident they can get one of WI, MI, and PA. But sunbelts closer than hoped. NC "annoyingly" in play.

National vote, Harris slight lead.

Personal observation only on public polls: Rasmussen a bit concerning. I'm a believer in polls, but tracking trends are the most reliable in my view. Rasmussen has had Harris steadily closing gap. But other polls favorable to Trump. So who the heck knows?!?!

Mothra said:

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Realitybites said:

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Jack Bauer said:

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DeSantis doesnt have the flash and the charisma but i belive he would a great POTUS

Gov. Ron DeSantis RIPS Kamala Harris' plan to tax unrealized gains:

"That will tank this economy. We will feel that in Florida big time. You will have capital flee from this country. An unrealized gain is not even a gain until you realize it. Values fluctuate."

"The whole thing… pic.twitter.com/hf164V3eQT

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 29, 2024

---

I agree. But if you look at a guy like Vance, Desantis definitely suffers from a public persona deficit in comparison. He is great on policy and would make a great president, but not everyone who can make a great president can be elected to the office.

Pat Buchanan was as great on policy and had a much better public persona than Desantis and he still - to my everlasting regret - lost to Bush. Had he been Reagan's successor the country would have been spared much of the suffering it has had in the Bush-Clinton-Obama years and the world would have been a much better place.

---

Vance doesn't hold a candle to DeSantis. When he speaks, he sounds so disingenuous. And of course he completely flip-flopped on Trump. He doesn't have nearly the appeal that DeSantis has IMO. I can't believe Trump chose him as a running mate. When we're doing the postmortem on this election, if Trump loses, his choice of Vance will be a large part of the reason.

---

When Trump picked Vance he essentially had the election in the bag, which is what I think played a huge role in picking him (and maybe being convinced by his sons?). He had the luxury of choosing a VP that would be more loyal to him as he wasn't worried about votes.

I think Vance looks good on paper, but in front of a camera he comes off as either over-aggressive or awkward and uncharismatic. He shores up Trump's base voters at the cost of pushing away key demographics, which is something Trump is already very good at and doesn't need help with.

I think that had Biden dropped out earlier Trump would went with someone that actually helps him get votes, but Trump is unpredictable and often goes against what his advisors want.

sombear said:

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4th and Inches said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

🚨 Post-DNC poll from Quinnipiac:

Harris 49% (+1)
Trump 48%

At this point in 2016, Hillary was up 10% in this poll. Biden was also up 10%.

This is brutal for Kamala Harris.

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) August 29, 2024

---

the polling on that one is interesting. 98-1 dems voting for Harris. Best that has ever happened was Biden 94%. Combine that with the enthusiasm level way up, this is a poll of super Dems and they pushed out the waffling Dems.

At Harris plus 1% it is still most likely an electoral loss. The swings polling coming out have shown well for Trump this week.

---

Finally got some new internal info this morning.

Top-line: Better for Trump than anticipated; very tight race; no sustained convention bounce. All with one caveat:

Daily polling unusually volatile. For example, in a 3-day cycle in battleground states, Trump may have 4 point lead one day, then Harris a 3 point lead the next, then back to Trump. This happens but not so frequently, and unsure what it means, if anything.

In other words, no clear trend or pattern since convention.

Trump team still confident they can get one of WI, MI, and PA. But sunbelts closer than hoped. NC "annoyingly" in play.

National vote, Harris slight lead.

Personal observation only on public polls: Rasmussen a bit concerning. I'm a believer in polls, but tracking trends are the most reliable in my view. Rasmussen has had Harris steadily closing gap. But other polls favorable to Trump. So who the heck knows?!?!

---

pretty much tracks where I am at and what I am getting.

The polling volatility is definitely a big issue that is being talked about in the polling circles

ATL Bear said:

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4th and Inches said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Trumps last stand is the debate. If he fumbles that it's over. You can whistle past the graveyard all you want around polling variances, but his campaign knows the real trends, and now he's changing (or refining) positions to try and pick up key demographics and constituencies he's losing ground with.

---

Harris has peaked.. she has to shine in the debate to have a chance. Both need a good debate to win.

---

It's less about peaking and more about Trump falling, For both Rasmussen and WSJ to swing 3 points in a matter of weeks is serious reason for concern for a Republican candidate. Looking for something to indicate a landing for Trump, hard or soft. I was highly confident he would win Georgia. I'm not so sure now.

---

a three-point convention bounce is very modest for so much earned media. From here forward, she will have to work a lot harder to maintain the buzz.

Should America keep it's current electoral college system for electing a president

No - 57%
Yes - 30%

YouGov

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 30, 2024

boognish_bear said:

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Should America keep it's current electoral college system for electing a president

No - 57%
Yes - 30%

YouGov

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 30, 2024

---

The EC has proven to be a pretty balanced system that prevents one party from winning every election, but it can be approved upon.

The "Winner take all" method leads to lower voter turnout in non-swing states and feelings of disenfranchisement for Republicans in Blue states like California or Democrats in Red states like Tennessee.

I think a system where the winner takes 75% of the state's electors and the rest are proportioned out based on the voting margins might be better. For an example, in 2020 Dems would have received 50 of California's electors and the Reps would have gotten 5.

Bestweekeverr said:

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boognish_bear said:

---

Should America keep it's current electoral college system for electing a president

No - 57%
Yes - 30%

YouGov

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 30, 2024

---

The EC has proven to be a pretty balanced system that prevents one party from winning every election, but it can be approved upon.

The "Winner take all" method leads to lower voter turnout in non-swing states and feelings of disenfranchisement for Republicans in Blue states like California or Democrats in Red states like Tennessee.

I think a system where the winner takes 75% of the state's electors and the rest are proportioned out based on the voting margins might be better. For an example, in 2020 Dems would have received 50 of California's electors and the Reps would have gotten 5.

---

an elector per capita district setup would work as well, similar to how the house districts are done.

A pure winner take all system that combines all states as one along with the 17th will make many states have zero voice in national politics

#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)

🟥 Trump: 53.1%
🟦 Harris: 46.6%
——
Swing States: chance of winning

Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 53-47%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 62-38%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 64-36%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 66-34%
Wisconsin - 🔵… https://t.co/o6kEYBvXHQ pic.twitter.com/nL9ZWHc9kr

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2024

General Election Poll - Pennsylvania

🟥 Trump 47% (+2.1)
🟦 Harris 44.9%

Trafalgar Group 8/28-8/30
1,000 LV

Harris can't win without PA. Trump has a nice lead in this poll and remember....the Amish don't show up in polls.

— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) August 31, 2024

They were solid in 2020

4th and Inches said:

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boognish_bear said:

---

Should America keep it's current electoral college system for electing a president

No - 57%
Yes - 30%

YouGov

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 30, 2024

---

57 percent of people who dont know how it works or how it is supposed to work as well as there is no way to explain why they don't like it.

Granted, there are a group of people who want a true popular vote democracy those people, of course, would not like the electoral system.

---

Which is exactly why the Founding Fathers did not want our leadership chosen exclusively by popular vote.

They did not trust the mental acumen of the masses.

Of course if they saw the results of women and those without property now voting …..they would know…..far faster than us……how our country is irrevocably doomed to a banana republic status .

Recent Pennsylvania Polls

Wick Insights
🟥 Trump 48% (+1)
🟦 Harris 47%

Fabrizio Ward
🟥 Trump 47% (+1)
🟦 Harris 46%

Trafalgar Group
🟥 Trump 47% (+2.1)
🟦 Harris 44.9%

Trump has a lead in PA. Without a doubt. Trump should have 1 rally a week in PA until Nov. 5

— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) August 31, 2024

BREAKING: A complaint has been filed alleging that the USPS acted illegally in shipping at least one million mail-in ballots from a facility in Bethpage, New York, to Pennsylvania in 2020, before the U.S. District Court in Maryland.

— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) August 31, 2024