whiterock said:
KaiBear said:
A. Yes a 2nd carrier group is an important part of a deterrent.
B. However Ukraine has already proven how missiles and drones can successfully destroy naval units.
C. Can Israel really count on the US to go to war with Iran if Iran attacks them. If you were Israel would you really trust an 80 year old dementia case to follow through ?
D. And if the US goes to war with Iran what will Russia, Syria, Egypt and especially Turkey do ?
This could very easily escalate into a regional war.
However unlike the Ukrainian nightmare the US did not manipulate this problem involving Hamas.
Iran did.
Hope our Navy is on a war time status. They better be.
If Israel goes into the Gaza Strip, Hamas will sacrifice their civilians to bring on the biggest war in the Middle East since the Iraqi - Iran blood fest .
That part in bold is a valid concern, and I cannot speak to it terribly authoritatively. The Navy is aware of the drone threat and has been developing its own swarms, above and under the water. I would assume that much of what Ukraine has done in the Black Sea was with our help. Presumably, if we are building such capabilities ourselves, we are aware of the nature of the threats and have some counter-measures. Most of all, though, remember that Hamas was focused on Israel. It's maritime operations were aimed primarily at infiltration and disruption of Israeli patrols. They could not afford, given their situation, to devote a lot of resources to attacking the US Navy over the horizon. Same dynamic would be at play for HIzballah, except that they have been on the receiving end of US Naval bombardment (after USMC barracks bombing in Lebanon), so may very well have some kind of limited capabilities. But again, they are kitted up primarily for Israel, so they will not have deep inventory to launch at our ships.
one reason the US is so powerful is that our institutions can operate effectively without intervention of the sovereign. That said, I would expect Biden to short-arm the problem, but Israel cannot be worried about that. Pretty sure their perspective goes like this - "we are in this. Any help we get matters. If it's less than what we'd like...well, we are in this and have to win anyway."
Frankly, Israel could handle a two front war. Our support will likely be limited to air and missile strikes against Hizballah bases in Lebanon/Syria. We've done that before, so it's not much of an escalation. Such would substantially degrade Hizballah capablities and relieve pressure on Israeli ordnance supply. So the real question is, will Biden treat it as a simple retaliatory strike, or will he treat it as an opportunity to destroy Hizballah force structure in Lebanon and Syria. He should do the latter, but I'm prepared to see him short-arm it withe former. at the end of the day, there is benefit to both. Degrading Hizballah is a win. And just thumping them to send a message to stand down is also a win, just not as effective over time nor broadly satisfying.
Turkey will not mind us taking out Iranian and HIzballah assets, as they are both terror threats and regional rivals to Turkey.
Turkey also sees the Saudi/Israel cooperative as a threat both economically and geo-political. So I wouldn't count on Turkey working with the US in this matter.
I'm not saying that Turkey will join the fight, but I wouldn't count on them opening up their airspace for the US to help Israel.
Our only reliable ally in this situation is Israel.... assuming that Biden will actually count them as an ally.
I still believe that the end result of our Carrier Groups in the Med, will be to use them to force Israel to back down. We will support them initially, but eventually we will force them to stop short.
Also, there is a high probability that our carriers will be used to evacuate hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, and transport them to the US.
History has taught us one thing for sure... never under estimate Bidens ability to **** up an international situation to the detriment of the United States.
ShooterTX
