FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
sombear said:
whiterock said:
Post is a little hot. Look at the map of what's now within the MOE. Its early. And we may have a new candidate. But momentum is an important facto. If the election were held today, final map would look a lot like the one below.
No doubt polls moved a bit to Trump after the debate.
But I am very skeptical of these two. There are a lot of different agendas out there, many of which want Biden to step away.
RNC and Trump internals are not showing anything close to these two.
That map is showing what is within the Margin Of Error, not where Trump is ahead. That has the effect, for the purposes of the map, of moving at least 5 traditionally blue states into the red column = CO, NM, MI, NH, ME.
If Dems don't dump out Biden, those five states will become the battleground states, and Trump will likely win them due to momentum, which will continue in Trump's direction if Biden survives this crisis and remains on the ticket.
So it's a map of what could be, not what is (at the moment).
I missed that. Thanks. But I don't believe the other leaked poll either.
I promised not to provide all the details, but Trump/RNC internals the last few days are consistent. Trump expanded lead in already strong GA, NC, and AZ. NV a little less so but still positive movement. Same with Midwest where it remains close. Neutral to positive in VA, MN, NM, and CO.
That sounds solid.
The key is what will the undecideds do. They will not swing to Biden. But a replacement candidate creates opportunity to rope them back in. Not sure Kamala is the right choice. Just have to wait and see.
Good discipline from Team Trump, letting Dems stew in their own juiced
Kamala cannot be the choice. The Dangerous guy is the Governor from Maryland, he got a lot of juice from how he handled the Bridge collapse. Trump would have trouble debating him. Too reasonable.
Hope it is Harris, Widmer or Newsome, they are all beatable.
The Democrats would have three problems running Wes Moore:
1. Money. Moore would start from $0 and it's late to play catch-up, especially since the replacement Democrat nominee needs to establish a brand that wins over independents;
2. Harris. It helps Moore to remove the notion that Harris represents the Black voter option, but Harris
is the sitting Vice-President, and would be quick to claim that replacing her would be an insult to female voters;
3. Maryland. As Michael Dukakis discovered in 1988, there is an important difference between being Governor of a major state like California or Texas, and being Governor of a more minor state like Alaska, Massachusetts, or Maryland.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
