FLBear5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
"The Hillary miss triggered an update of the methodology to make sure it didn't happen in 20"
Actually, no that did not happen. There was some panic then things stayed the same.
And anyone who knows polling understands that Presidential election years are different from mid-term polling.
Beauty is it is early. Here is the July 29th data. Let's see where it goes... Very easy to see who is right.
Right now, we are seeing everything from Harris +1 in WSJ and NY Times to Trump up +7 in Rasmussen.
Let's see what other issues besides the polling we can score...
- Harris campaign is going after Vance - You believe it doesn't matter. I say he is an anchor and will hurt.
- Clinton's/Obama's support of Harris - You seem to think, immaterial. I say it changes the election.
- Hollywood - You say nobody pays attention to the Jennifer Aniston's, Oprah's, and Clooney's. I say they have more influence than anyone on Trump's side.
Accurate?
I, unlike others on this Board, will admit when I am wrong... You have enough sack to admit when you are wrong? Haven't seen it yet, but I will give you the benefit of the doubt. Or do you plan to just insult, that has been more consistent with my experience with you.
To your points, then:
- Harris campaign is going after Vance - You believe it doesn't matter. I say he is an anchor and will hurt.
You should consider the timing. Harris
immediately attacked Vance over a 2021 comment, not exactly the most damaging action nor the optimal timing to help her when the votes come out (
compare that to Gore's timing of Bush's DUI arrest during the 2000 campaign, for example).
- Clinton's/Obama's support of Harris - You seem to think, immaterial. I say it changes the election
The Obamas did not want Harris, nor did the Clintons. Their statements are pro-forma only, and lukewarm at best. I do think it's material, but that it hurts Harris in gaining momentum.
- Hollywood - You say nobody pays attention to the Jennifer Aniston's, Oprah's, and Clooney's. I say they have more influence than anyone on Trump's side.
Strongly disagree. This election depends on the Independents, and Harris' circle of support just is not important enough to override concerns about the economy. I agree that Trump also lacks luminaries to win over voters (seriously, Kid Rock and The Hulk?), but he understands he will win on issues or not at all.
And no, you do
not always admit when you are wrong. Consider that we have known for months now that Trump would be the GOP nominee, yet you have constantly whined about getting someone else. I wanted DeSantis and voted for him in the primary, but I understood when the primary race was decided and have not dwelled on what cannot be.
And boyo, you do more than your share of insulting. Maybe if you were more cordial, you'd get that back.
I do appreciate when we can talk on substance, so thanks for that.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier