Guadalupe flooding, 6 deaths reported

30,226 Views | 412 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by boognish_bear
Forest Bueller_bf
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Harrison Bergeron said:

Easy to second guess - someone noted a reasonable, low cost, easy solution: everyone have an NOAA radio. Overcomes that cell tower problem and provides real-time data and warning.
I have to believe the timing had something to do with it. Even with timely warnings, which there were warnings, 3am 4am are the times when most people are asleep.

Even with a warning and even if they heard the warning, it is dark, kids are asleep, it would be chaos trying to evacuate at that time with those circumstances.

Did they have a NOAA weather radio in the Camp.

I have one that gives of a siren in warning situations, but even with that, the darkness, the time of the morning, the chaos to get the kids moving, possibly even exposing them to more danger, there is no system to prepare for a river rising 26 ft in less than an hour.

Much like there is no way to be ready for an F/EF 5 tornado.
KaiBear
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Dukebear1 said:

You could certainly be right. I am a total amateur on this issue. But my common sense is technology has become so advanced that warning sirens must already be available to measure up steam water flow in a way that would warn downstream in a timely manner. I have no idea whether the failure to provide sirens could give rise to legal liability. I am ticked off because we know someone who died in the flood.
Even if a siren went off,,,,,,,there is almost zero chance that people could have comprehended the danger, the time limits involved, corraled their kids, and ran out of harms way all within 30 minutes.

With the number of campers involved.....am surprised the fatalities are not in the hundreds.

I once rafted the Yampa River for 4 days during a record flow of 25 feet above flood stage.

The speed of such a river. the power; is incredible.
Dukebear1
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Hello Kai Bear! We have a place in Steamboat about a mile from the Yampa. Beautiful river!
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Heroes

historian
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Osodecentx said:

Assassin said:




This is so despicable, has anyone checked to make sure this is real?
If it is real, remember the name

This has been reported by multiple sites. Looks real although it's difficult to imagine a pediatrician could be so callous, petty, & evil. Someone like that should never be allowed around children.

It's the latest example of how much our society has fallen, a result of the rejection of God.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
historian
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Forest Bueller_bf said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

Easy to second guess - someone noted a reasonable, low cost, easy solution: everyone have an NOAA radio. Overcomes that cell tower problem and provides real-time data and warning.
I have to believe the timing had something to do with it. Even with timely warnings, which there were warnings, 3am 4am are the times when most people are asleep.

Even with a warning and even if they heard the warning, it is dark, kids are asleep, it would be chaos trying to evacuate at that time with those circumstances.

Did they have a NOAA weather radio in the Camp.

I have one that gives of a siren in warning situations, but even with that, the darkness, the time of the morning, the chaos to get the kids moving, possibly even exposing them to more danger, there is no system to prepare for a river rising 26 ft in less than an hour.

Much like there is no way to be ready for an F/EF 5 tornado.

Good point. Actually, it's amazing that they managed to evacuate over 800 kids from the camp under the circumstances. It's easy to imagine how the disaster could have been far worse.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
ShooterTX
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Fellow Bears,

This is a horrible tragedy.
We all want to believe that there must be a way to avoid these tragedies with technology or better services.
The technology worked... it's hard to believe, but true.
If this had happened 20 years ago, there would be thousands dead.

Yes, we must try to expand & improve early warning systems, but it is important that we do not attempt to lay blame on anyone. People literally died trying to save others. I don't think there was any incompetence, laziness or indifference that lead to the deaths of these young children at Camp Mystic. We just have to realize that sometimes these tragedies are just out of our control.
No one has ever seen the Guadalupe rise this much, this quickly.

It's a horrible day in Kerr County right now, as thousands of volunteers are digging through debris trying to find the bodies.

Let's all do our best to not throw around blame. The emergency managers are already heart broken enough. Many of them will be haunted by guilt... they don't need our accusations added to their load.

ShooterTX
Forest Bueller_bf
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historian said:

Forest Bueller_bf said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

Easy to second guess - someone noted a reasonable, low cost, easy solution: everyone have an NOAA radio. Overcomes that cell tower problem and provides real-time data and warning.
I have to believe the timing had something to do with it. Even with timely warnings, which there were warnings, 3am 4am are the times when most people are asleep.

Even with a warning and even if they heard the warning, it is dark, kids are asleep, it would be chaos trying to evacuate at that time with those circumstances.

Did they have a NOAA weather radio in the Camp.

I have one that gives of a siren in warning situations, but even with that, the darkness, the time of the morning, the chaos to get the kids moving, possibly even exposing them to more danger, there is no system to prepare for a river rising 26 ft in less than an hour.

Much like there is no way to be ready for an F/EF 5 tornado.

Good point. Actually, it's amazing that they managed to evacuate over 800 kids from the camp under the circumstances. It's easy to imagine how the disaster could have been far worse.
It could have been much worse.
boognish_bear
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Robert Wilson
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ShooterTX said:

Fellow Bears,

This is a horrible tragedy.
We all want to believe that there must be a way to avoid these tragedies with technology or better services.
The technology worked... it's hard to believe, but true.
If this had happened 20 years ago, there would be thousands dead.

Yes, we must try to expand & improve early warning systems, but it is important that we do not attempt to lay blame on anyone. People literally died trying to save others. I don't think there was any incompetence, laziness or indifference that lead to the deaths of these young children at Camp Mystic. We just have to realize that sometimes these tragedies are just out of our control.
No one has ever seen the Guadalupe rise this much, this quickly.

It's a horrible day in Kerr County right now, as thousands of volunteers are digging through debris trying to find the bodies.

Let's all do our best to not throw around blame. The emergency managers are already heart broken enough. Many of them will be haunted by guilt... they don't need our accusations added to their load.





Excellent post. Agreed. From what I know, it is amazing to me that the death toll is not far far higher.
Assassin
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J.R. said:

Jack Bauer said:



yes, unfortunately I am friends with the family and refrained from using a name. Also found out yesterday that a set of twins from my town also perished . (Baylor family)
Oh man. So sorry for them.
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cowboycwr
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On the NWS and accuweather thing… don't some tv stations use accuweather? I feel like I have seen news weather forecasts where they state that… something like and now Matt with the Accuweather forecast.

I think one of the Waco news channels does this but can't think of which one.
historian
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Totally unrelated to anything in Texas but I do love stories about heroes, especially if they are young:

https://notthebee.com/article/these-two-boys-are-certified-heroes-after-they-rescued-two-infants-they-spotted-crawling-out-of-a-window-and-onto-the-roof-of-a-neighborhood-house
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
cowboycwr
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I'm a little behind on this thread this morning and missed many of the posts on the previous page so if this has been discussed I apologize.

But I read a great post on Facebook talking about the weather alerts on phones.

Often they are connected to the phone number. Since these kids were from all over the state (even saw where some were from Virginia because they used to go there when they lived in TX) they would not have received the alert because their number was not local. Which can also be a problem for adults since they often have a number not connected to where they live.

For example, people get a cell number in Houston but then attend Baylor or move for jobs. My wife had a Fort Worth number when she lived in Waco before we met. And I have had lots of coworkers this applied to. So the system would have to send to all numbers or be able to send to ones within range of the tower or something like that.

Then you have the issue of many of the kids were young and might not have phones, didn't bring them, or have the child locked phones that don't have full features.

So sending an alert to local phones does not help the campers, families in RVs, etc that don't have local numbers.

historian
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I think I read somewhere that cell phones were not allowed in the camps. The children didn't have them because they would be distractions. No doubt the counselors and other adults did have phones but the authorities probably didn't have their numbers.

The main problems with this flood was the remote location, the late hour, and his quickly the water rise to dangerous levels. 26 feet in 45 minutes is difficult for anyone to comprehend much less react to in the middle of the night with hundreds of young children to care for.

We want explanations. We want to hold guilty parties responsible (usually). We want disasters to have meaning. Unfortunately reality does not always give us the easy answers we seek. Human society has always been like this ever since Adam & Eve.
“Incline my heart to your testimonies, and not to selfish gain!”
Psalm 119:36
Assassin
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historian said:

I think I read somewhere that cell phones were not allowed in the camps. The children didn't have them because they would be distractions. No doubt the counselors and other adults did have phones but the authorities probably didn't have their numbers.

The main problems with this flood was the remote location, the late hour, and his quickly the water rise to dangerous levels. 26 feet in 45 minutes is difficult for anyone to comprehend much less react to in the middle of the night with hundreds of young children to care for.

We want explanations. We want to hold guilty parties responsible (usually). We want disasters to have meaning. Unfortunately reality does not always give us the easy answers we seek. Human society has always been like this ever since Adam & Eve.
Not sure how you avoid situations like this without simply moving everyone in the flood plain out of it, which, considering how high the flood went, would be impractical. You can't move whole towns because of what hits every century or so. I think someone stated that this was a 100 year flood plain.

It happened while everyone was sleeping. How do you pitch camps next year without some kind of early warning system to allow them to go to safety? I don't see a clear solution.

Lots of questions to be answered, but this was more an Act of God rather than anyone's fault.
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Dukebear1
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I think the people trying to save the kids and everyone else acted heroically. What is hard to swallow is the big ticket, capital items were not started years ago. Things that engineers would recommend and then get built. Projects like that ordinarily take significant governmental funding. I recall seeing an earlier text that referred to a discussion about this about 8 or 9 years ago either in Kerrville or Kerr county for significant capital projects to reduce flooding and that was turned down.
Redbrickbear
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Dukebear1 said:

I think the people trying to save the kids and everyone else acted heroically. What is hard to swallow is the big ticket, capital items were not started years ago. Things that engineers would recommend and then get built. Projects like that ordinarily take significant governmental funding. I recall seeing an earlier text that referred to a discussion about this about 8 or 9 years ago either in Kerrville or Kerr county for significant capital projects to reduce flooding and that was turned down.


Good point

And the population just keeps on expanding.

Another disaster waiting to take place.

[In 1950, the Hill Country population was 800,000. By 2000, it had more than tripled to 2.6 million, and by 2030, it's projected to reach 4.6 million]


[As the new State of the Hill Country Report illustrates, the Hill Country population has increased by 50% just since 1995]
Assassin
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Not sure if this is accurate as I cant find it anywhere else, but very cool if it is

https://celebrity.cafex.biz/posts/rolling-resilience-beacon-hope-amid-texas-floods-phuc123#google_vignette

Turns out it was FAKE!
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Jack Bauer
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Last I heard was 94 total deaths (27 from Camp Mystic) and dozens still missing
Assassin
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Jack Bauer
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Assassin said:




Care County, Texas??
Assassin
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Jack Bauer said:

Assassin said:




Care County, Texas??
New Hampshire accent?
EatMoreSalmon
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Assassin said:

Jack Bauer said:

Assassin said:




Care County, Texas??
New Hampshire accent?


Assassin
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It hit in the McLennan County too, not quite as bad but still a little rough

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/14Lxunzk2Sw/
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Assassin
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Forgot all about a previous flood in 1987. I was overseas but USA Today covered it

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2025/07/04/1987-when-the-guadalupe-river-turned-deadly/
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KaiBear
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Dukebear1 said:

Hello Kai Bear! We have a place in Steamboat about a mile from the Yampa. Beautiful river!
Good for you...I am very envious.

My sister in law owns a house approx 13 miles south of Steamboat on 12 acres.

We visit there often.

The Yampa River through Dinosaur National Monument is as beautiful as the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon.




































BellCountyBear
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I went to church camp at Mo Ranch in Hunt every summer growing up. I haven't seen any reports of how it fared during this catastrophe. Anyone else?
Osodecentx
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Assassin said:

historian said:

I think I read somewhere that cell phones were not allowed in the camps. The children didn't have them because they would be distractions. No doubt the counselors and other adults did have phones but the authorities probably didn't have their numbers.

The main problems with this flood was the remote location, the late hour, and his quickly the water rise to dangerous levels. 26 feet in 45 minutes is difficult for anyone to comprehend much less react to in the middle of the night with hundreds of young children to care for.

We want explanations. We want to hold guilty parties responsible (usually). We want disasters to have meaning. Unfortunately reality does not always give us the easy answers we seek. Human society has always been like this ever since Adam & Eve.
Not sure how you avoid situations like this without simply moving everyone in the flood plain out of it, which, considering how high the flood went, would be impractical. You can't move whole towns because of what hits every century or so. I think someone stated that this was a 100 year flood plain.

It happened while everyone was sleeping. How do you pitch camps next year without some kind of early warning system to allow them to go to safety? I don't see a clear solution.

Lots of questions to be answered, but this was more an Act of God rather than anyone's fault.


Great post
chriscbear
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Had this happened 30 to 40 years ago it would have been much much worse. God bless Texas.
LIB,MR BEARS
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BellCountyBear said:

I went to church camp at Mo Ranch in Hunt every summer growing up. I haven't seen any reports of how it fared during this catastrophe. Anyone else?
https://kfor.com/news/quick-action-by-one-texas-summer-camp-led-to-timely-evacuations-ahead-of-flood/
Assassin
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chriscbear said:

Had this happened 30 to 40 years ago it would have been much much worse. God bless Texas.
Actually it did. 1987.

https://www.ksat.com/weather/2025/07/04/1987-when-the-guadalupe-river-turned-deadly/
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Assassin
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Dox her!

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Assassin
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Facebook Groups at; Memories of Dallas, Mem of Texas, Mem of Football in Texas, Mem Texas Music and Through a Texas Lens. Come visit! Over 100,000 members and 100,000 regular visitors
 
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