Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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KaiBear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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KaiBear said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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The_barBEARian said:

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When your "greatest ally" is actually your worst enemy...

Channel 12 reports that if the US launches a ground operation in Iran, Israeli troops will not take part in the combat.

Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/cCr12HxVib

— AF Post (@AFpost) March 29, 2026

---

I can't say if this type of ground invasion would be good or bad (my gut says stay out of land wars in the Middle East)

But this would be less of a "Jews sending Americans to fight for them" and more of a "Jewish foot soldiers inside a Muslim country would inflame things" issue

An American invasion of part or all of Iran would be likely to be more successful at getting local support if its only American troops (no Israelis)

In Gulf War I and Gulf War II it was a specific policy of America to ask Israel NOT to come along on the alliance attack on Iraq. Because it would inflame local tensions/resistance and would cause fractures with our local Arab/middle eastern allies

At the end of the day Muslims in the Middle East are less likely to resist Americans or at least acquiesce to sort term occupation by Americans (for lots of reasons) than they are to Israelis/jews

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Sorry BS, Saudi and Company pony up. Let the Arabs be the ground force. We handled the rest.

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50,000 U.S troops now deployed to the Middle East. This is not good.

To put this in perspective , 2,459 American lives were lost in our 20 year war with Afghanistan. Think about this.

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Most of those 50,000 have been deployed in the region for many years.

Would takes several months to deploy the necessary combat troops, heavy armor and supplies to conduct a serious ground war.

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Try several years.

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Incorrect

The buildup prior to our invasion of Iraq did not remotely require 'several' years.

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Kuwait was 5-6 months for the Gulf War and was 500k troops.

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Yea...but we have to remember the US and its allies were looking for huge force levels.

Iraq had a million man army and lots of analysists felt it was a top 4-5 army in the world. Many thought years of war in Iran had made it strong and battle hardened....and it had 6,000 tanks, 4,000 pieces of artillery and 62+ divisions.

Yet a single American Corp. basically crushed them.....

[The VII Corps was tasked with the "offensive punch" needed to destroy the Republican Guard, Iraq's most capable military units.

• Decisive Engagements: They fought the war's most intense tank battles, including the Battle of 73 Easting and the Battle of Medina Ridge.
• Enemy Destruction: During the 100-hour war, the VII Corps destroyed nearly 1,350 Iraqi tanks, 1,224 armored carriers, and over 280 artillery pieces. ]

PS

Not that we want to or should invade....but a single America Corp. backed up by Air power could be in Tehran pretty quickly.

Iranian ground troops can not stop American firepower.

It would be the Iraq wars all over again.....

By the end of the 1st Iraq war the enemy forces had been destroyed in a shocking way.

• Tanks: Over 3,000 out of an estimated 4,030 tanks were destroyed or captured.
• Artillery: At least 1,005 of 3,110 artillery pieces were neutralized.
• Armored Vehicles: Roughly 962 to 1,400 armored personnel carriers (APCs) were lost.
• Divisions: 42 Iraqi divisions were either completely destroyed or rendered "combat ineffective"]

While the coalition lost only 400 people and 31 tanks.....

---

I was actually making it to show that it could be done much quicker. But, on your analysis...

Gulf War (Iraq 1) we were part of a huge coalition to remove Iraq from Kuwait, nothing more. We set up no-fly zones and called it a day. I remember the orders coming back do not go into Iraq.

We fought on the sands, which played well to our combined arms training and manuever centric tactics. Iran is not Kuwait or Iraq. It is mountainous. It will be closer to Korea.

You forget about the Iraq War 2 was we bypassed the Cities to get Sadaam. Sadaam falls, everything falls. Even with a direct mission that strategy created a nightmare later. See Fallujah. Iran has a well entrenched Government that is layers deep.

Can 1 Corps do it? I believe it will be a slog, as Korea was a slog. We outclassed the Chinese in tech, they had numbers. Iran has numbers. I don't think you are looking at 1 month and Tehran is done. But, you may be right, I am not really up on Iranian armor.

I do know we did all this other **** for 50 years for a reason...

I appreciate the discussion. Nice to at least discuss things.

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I honestly don't know

But they can sure as hell do a lot of damage in only 100 hours.... [During the 100-hour war, the VII Corps destroyed nearly 1,350 Iraqi tanks, 1,224 armored carriers, and over 280 artillery pieces.]

For reference Iran today...

Has about 350,000 men in its army. And about 2,675 tanks. 550 aircraft. And had a navy of 103 ships (now almost all gone). The Revolutionary Guard has about 200,000 men.

So lets go high and say they have 600,000 soldiers right now ready for active combat.

Can go higher will reserves and drafting men...but they would be unexperienced or untrained.

I think a single US Corp with American and Israeli air support can crush that force.....taking out its tanks and armored vehicles and killing its units if they dare come out of from hiding among civilians.

The real question is probably not "Can the USA crush the Iranian military and get to Tehran with a Corp or two"...but "Once we get to Tehran will the people rise up and overthrow the government or do we have a quagmire on our hands?"

---

In an open fight I agree. We ate Iraq's lunch, that antiquated equipment was no match for the M1s and AH-64s. Those were the 2 that were the most impressive back then. I believe the Bradleys are more front and center than they were then. Iraq was stupid to fight us that way. They should have gone Fallujah on us, they would have stood a better chance.

I don't believe Iran will fight us in an open war, it will be asymmetrical, terrain and guerilla. They can draw it out, I think more Afghanistan IED-fest.

Will be interesting if it goes conventional.

Conversation has been fun, what could have been with a different path! As long as it wasn't Light Infantry...

As for the quagmire, yes....

Redbrickbear said:

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Mitch Blood Green said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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Mitch Blood Green said:

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Realitybites said:

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Monday AM Update:

Summary

• Iran rejects 'excessive, illogical' US demands while Trump mentions 'progress' with a 'more reasonable regime'. Trump again threatens to destroy Iran energy sites and Kharg Island.
• White House seriously considering ground operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium stockpile but also wants Tehran to negotiate handing it over willingly.
• Bazan oil refinery in Israel's northern city of Haifa is on fire after a second apparent Iranian missile strike of the war.
• Iran accuses Israel of more 'false flags' - after Kuwait water desalination plant hit.

Iran has once again stated that it has rejected the latest "US demands" as "excessive and illogical" according to state Tasnim, also confirming that it did not participate in the weekend Pakistan-hosted summit attended by the foreign ministers of Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

"We have never had any direct negotiations with the United States. What has been raised are messages received through intermediaries indicating the US desire to negotiate," Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in a press conference Monday.

Markets are green on the Monday morning hopium tweet. Will be red later in the week. Oil continues to go up.

---

We are now threatening to blow up Iran's desalination plants. Humanitarian crisis on the way.

---

Iran would likely respond in kind. The trouble is that they only depend on desalination plants for 1% or less of their water. Our Arab allies rely on desalination for 70%-90% of theirs. So there would be a humanitarian crisis affecting millions of people...just not in Iran.

---

Iran was having serious water problems even before the war.

[Iran is currently facing an unprecedented and severe water crisis, described by experts as a "water bankruptcy" that poses a major threat to its national security and stability. Years of drought, exacerbated by climate change and chronic mismanagement, have led to critically low water levels in reservoirs and depleted groundwater reserves]

https://e360.yale.edu/features/iran-water-drought-dams-qanats

[Iran is looking to relocate the nation's capital because of severe water shortages that make Tehran unsustainable. Experts say the crisis was caused by years of ill-conceived dam projects and overpumping that destroyed a centuries-old system for tapping underground reserves. ]
By Fred Pearce December 18, 2025

---

The issue isn't Irans water supply. It's the region. Iran has the ability to create catastrophic water shortage issues in the region by responding to an attack on its water.

I think it's ****ty to destroy fresh water in Bahrain, Qatar, etc. but if the US/Israel attack your critical infrastructure? I think that's theirs is fair game.

This is frustrating to me. There was clearly a nonviolent path forward that us and Israel kept walking away from.

---

I understand the concern...but If they play that game it will be worse for Iran than it will be for Israel

Because of course Iran was having water problems even during peace time.

Israel also has the tech and the money to fix their infrastructure and bring in more potable water.

Expensive and a massive pain....but Israel and the Arab Gulf States can do it.

Iran is in a FAR worse situation.

PS

If Iran decides its going to go completely rouge and attach international shipping, desalination plants that other regional countries rely on for water, try and crippler the regions water, world trade, and attack anyone and everyone....even countries that did NOT attack them.

Then Iran is going to get the Iraq 1991 treatment....a international coalition led by the US will invade and completely crush their Islamist government.

If Iran's leaders wanna end up like Saddam or Mussolini hanging from a rope....then I guess they should continue on the path they are on....because that will be what happens if you lash out at everyone and everything and create an endless list of enemies (many with vast wealth and vast military resources)

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How does any of this potentially benefit you and your family?

The_barBEARian said:

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Redbrickbear said:

---

Mitch Blood Green said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

Mitch Blood Green said:

---

Realitybites said:

---

Monday AM Update:

Summary

• Iran rejects 'excessive, illogical' US demands while Trump mentions 'progress' with a 'more reasonable regime'. Trump again threatens to destroy Iran energy sites and Kharg Island.
• White House seriously considering ground operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium stockpile but also wants Tehran to negotiate handing it over willingly.
• Bazan oil refinery in Israel's northern city of Haifa is on fire after a second apparent Iranian missile strike of the war.
• Iran accuses Israel of more 'false flags' - after Kuwait water desalination plant hit.

Iran has once again stated that it has rejected the latest "US demands" as "excessive and illogical" according to state Tasnim, also confirming that it did not participate in the weekend Pakistan-hosted summit attended by the foreign ministers of Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

"We have never had any direct negotiations with the United States. What has been raised are messages received through intermediaries indicating the US desire to negotiate," Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in a press conference Monday.

Markets are green on the Monday morning hopium tweet. Will be red later in the week. Oil continues to go up.

---

We are now threatening to blow up Iran's desalination plants. Humanitarian crisis on the way.

---

Iran would likely respond in kind. The trouble is that they only depend on desalination plants for 1% or less of their water. Our Arab allies rely on desalination for 70%-90% of theirs. So there would be a humanitarian crisis affecting millions of people...just not in Iran.

---

Iran was having serious water problems even before the war.

[Iran is currently facing an unprecedented and severe water crisis, described by experts as a "water bankruptcy" that poses a major threat to its national security and stability. Years of drought, exacerbated by climate change and chronic mismanagement, have led to critically low water levels in reservoirs and depleted groundwater reserves]

https://e360.yale.edu/features/iran-water-drought-dams-qanats

[Iran is looking to relocate the nation's capital because of severe water shortages that make Tehran unsustainable. Experts say the crisis was caused by years of ill-conceived dam projects and overpumping that destroyed a centuries-old system for tapping underground reserves. ]
By Fred Pearce December 18, 2025

---

The issue isn't Irans water supply. It's the region. Iran has the ability to create catastrophic water shortage issues in the region by responding to an attack on its water.

I think it's ****ty to destroy fresh water in Bahrain, Qatar, etc. but if the US/Israel attack your critical infrastructure? I think that's theirs is fair game.

This is frustrating to me. There was clearly a nonviolent path forward that us and Israel kept walking away from.

---

I understand the concern...but If they play that game it will be worse for Iran than it will be for Israel

Because of course Iran was having water problems even during peace time.

Israel also has the tech and the money to fix their infrastructure and bring in more potable water.

Expensive and a massive pain....but Israel and the Arab Gulf States can do it.

Iran is in a FAR worse situation.

PS

If Iran decides its going to go completely rouge and attach international shipping, desalination plants that other regional countries rely on for water, try and crippler the regions water, world trade, and attack anyone and everyone....even countries that did NOT attack them.

Then Iran is going to get the Iraq 1991 treatment....a international coalition led by the US will invade and completely crush their Islamist government.

If Iran's leaders wanna end up like Saddam or Mussolini hanging from a rope....then I guess they should continue on the path they are on....because that will be what happens if you lash out at everyone and everything and create an endless list of enemies (many with vast wealth and vast military resources)

---

How does any of this potentially benefit you and your family?

---

I don't think a land war in Iran would help me or my family

Just explaining the concept that if Iran attacks all the other countries in the middle east (trying to take out their ability to have fresh water), closes a major artery of international trade, and tries to crush the world ecnomoy.

There is a good chance the rest of the world treats them as a rouge state and takes out their Islamist government.

boognish_bear said:

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Mexico will pay for the wall and the Arab countries will pay for the war.

BREAKING: President Trump is interested in calling on Arab countries to "pay for the cost of the Iran War," per White House officials.

President Trump will soon have more to say on the topic, according to the White House.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 30, 2026

---

But Gulf Arab countries actually have the money to pay for a war.

And often the desire to do so....they have wanted the USA to take out Iran's leadership for a long time.

[In a cable from the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh to the State Department dated April 20, 2008, and made public earlier this year Jubeir, who is close to Saudi King Abdullah, made reference to the king's frequent exhortations to the U.S. to attack Iran. Then Jubeir used a particularly evocative phrase, says Alterman.
"Ambassador Jubeir told American officials that the king of Saudi Arabia told you to 'cut off the head of the snake.' That refers to a potential attack in Iran," Alterman says.]

[Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain in particular have historically seen Iran as an existential threat and a disruptive force in the region, often accusing it of intervening in the internal affairs of Arab states.]

Mitch Blood Green said:

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Realitybites said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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In an open fight I agree. We ate Iraq's lunch, that antiquated equipment was no match for the M1s and AH-64s. Those were the 2 that were the most impressive back then. I believe the Bradleys are more front and center than they were then. Iraq was stupid to fight us that way. They should have gone Fallujah on us, they would have stood a better chance.

I don't believe Iran will fight us in an open war, it will be asymmetrical, terrain and guerilla. They can draw it out, I think more Afghanistan IED-fest.

Will be interesting if it goes conventional.

Conversation has been fun, what could have been with a different path! As long as it wasn't Light Infantry...

As for the quagmire, yes....

---

The IEDs fly around now. We live in droneworld. There may not be another classic tank battle, just like there may not be another classic battle between battleships...ever.

But the most interesting thing about this war is the willingness of the government so far to give the middle finger to the populace and business and propagandize both 24/7.

Casualties? Not going to tell you. KIA? Not going to tell you. When we say damaged, we mean destroyed. Not to mention the constant filp flopping between peace talks and a ground invasion designed to head fake the market.

Shut up, peasant, and prepare for your kids to be drafted.

---

If there's one thing the Trumps have been able to do, that's avoid fighting in war. His family came to America to avoid military service in Germany.

---

?

"Mary Anne MacLeod Trump, emigrated from Scotland in 1930"

"Friedrich Trump (Grandfather): Immigrated to the U.S. from Kallstadt, Germany, in 1885 at age 16. He moved to the West during the gold rush, running restaurants and hotels before settling in New York."

Redbrickbear said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Mexico will pay for the wall and the Arab countries will pay for the war.

BREAKING: President Trump is interested in calling on Arab countries to "pay for the cost of the Iran War," per White House officials.

President Trump will soon have more to say on the topic, according to the White House.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 30, 2026

---

But Gulf Arab countries actually have the money to pay for a war.

And often the desire to do so....they have wanted the USA to take out Iran's leadership for a long time.

[In a cable from the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh to the State Department dated April 20, 2008, and made public earlier this year Jubeir, who is close to Saudi King Abdullah, made reference to the king's frequent exhortations to the U.S. to attack Iran. Then Jubeir used a particularly evocative phrase, says Alterman.
"Ambassador Jubeir told American officials that the king of Saudi Arabia told you to 'cut off the head of the snake.' That refers to a potential attack in Iran," Alterman says.]

[Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain in particular have historically seen Iran as an existential threat and a disruptive force in the region, often accusing it of intervening in the internal affairs of Arab states.]

---

It'll be nice if they come up with the $200 billion we are all about to write a check for.

Redbrickbear said:

---

Mitch Blood Green said:

---

Realitybites said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

In an open fight I agree. We ate Iraq's lunch, that antiquated equipment was no match for the M1s and AH-64s. Those were the 2 that were the most impressive back then. I believe the Bradleys are more front and center than they were then. Iraq was stupid to fight us that way. They should have gone Fallujah on us, they would have stood a better chance.

I don't believe Iran will fight us in an open war, it will be asymmetrical, terrain and guerilla. They can draw it out, I think more Afghanistan IED-fest.

Will be interesting if it goes conventional.

Conversation has been fun, what could have been with a different path! As long as it wasn't Light Infantry...

As for the quagmire, yes....

---

The IEDs fly around now. We live in droneworld. There may not be another classic tank battle, just like there may not be another classic battle between battleships...ever.

But the most interesting thing about this war is the willingness of the government so far to give the middle finger to the populace and business and propagandize both 24/7.

Casualties? Not going to tell you. KIA? Not going to tell you. When we say damaged, we mean destroyed. Not to mention the constant filp flopping between peace talks and a ground invasion designed to head fake the market.

Shut up, peasant, and prepare for your kids to be drafted.

---

If there's one thing the Trumps have been able to do, that's avoid fighting in war. His family came to America to avoid military service in Germany.

---

?

"Mary Anne MacLeod Trump, emigrated from Scotland in 1930"

"Friedrich Trump (Grandfather): Immigrated to the U.S. from Kallstadt, Germany, in 1885 at age 16. He moved to the West during the gold rush, running restaurants and hotels before settling in New York."

---

(Grandpa Trump) Born and raised in Kallstadt, in what was then the Kingdom of Bavaria, Trump immigrated to the United States in 1885. In 1891, he began speculating in real estate in Seattle. During the Klondike Gold Rush, he moved to the Yukon, Canada and made his fortune by operating a restaurant and a brothel for miners in Whitehorse.[2][3]

In 1901, Trump returned to Kallstadt and married Elisabeth Christ. As he had failed to complete mandatory military service and notify the authorities of his departure in 1885, the Bavarian government stripped him of his citizenship in 1905 and ordered him to leave. Consequently, he returned to the United States with his family.

I'll let you guess who was born soon after they arrived. That old birthright citizenship that goes before the court this week.

Mitch Blood Green said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Mexico will pay for the wall and the Arab countries will pay for the war.

BREAKING: President Trump is interested in calling on Arab countries to "pay for the cost of the Iran War," per White House officials.

President Trump will soon have more to say on the topic, according to the White House.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 30, 2026

---

They will pay to rebuild their countries. Expect them to not do promised investments in the USA.

---

What's that old saying? "You break it, you buy it!!!

Realitybites said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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In an open fight I agree. We ate Iraq's lunch, that antiquated equipment was no match for the M1s and AH-64s. Those were the 2 that were the most impressive back then. I believe the Bradleys are more front and center than they were then. Iraq was stupid to fight us that way. They should have gone Fallujah on us, they would have stood a better chance.

I don't believe Iran will fight us in an open war, it will be asymmetrical, terrain and guerilla. They can draw it out, I think more Afghanistan IED-fest.

Will be interesting if it goes conventional.

Conversation has been fun, what could have been with a different path! As long as it wasn't Light Infantry...

As for the quagmire, yes....

---

The IEDs fly around now. We live in droneworld. There may not be another classic tank battle, just like there may not be another classic battle between battleships...ever.

But the most interesting thing about this war is the willingness of the government so far to give the middle finger to the populace and business and propagandize both 24/7.

Casualties? Not going to tell you. KIA? Not going to tell you. When we say damaged, we mean destroyed. Not to mention the constant filp flopping between peace talks and a ground invasion designed to head fake the market.

Shut up, peasant, and prepare for your kids to be drafted.

---

Good points.

SECRETARY RUBIO: If you think about what they’ve struck in the region, what has Iran gone after? Embassies, diplomatic facilities, airports.

This is what they’ve done in a weakened state. Imagine them five years from now with more missiles. That’s why this needed to be done now. pic.twitter.com/EC5Mhn7oPQ

— Department of State (@StateDept) March 30, 2026

“We have to count [the] number of drones we use, efficiency of each of them, cost to kill for every Russian,” says Oleksandr Kamyshin, the architect of Ukraine's drone program. “The cost of killing every Russian is less than $1000 now.” https://t.co/PQwtPfHWmH pic.twitter.com/ILJ0pQP0fC

— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) March 30, 2026

FLBear5630 said:

---

Mitch Blood Green said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

Mexico will pay for the wall and the Arab countries will pay for the war.

BREAKING: President Trump is interested in calling on Arab countries to "pay for the cost of the Iran War," per White House officials.

President Trump will soon have more to say on the topic, according to the White House.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 30, 2026

---

They will pay to rebuild their countries. Expect them to not do promised investments in the USA.

---

The potential goes deeper than that. What is behind the dollar? Not gold, but the "full faith and credit of the US". As long as people believe that, we are good. We have now threatened allies, tariffed the world, and threatening to break treaties. Is the "full faith and credit" worth anything anymore? Will Donald just say, no we aren't paying and I am taking Greenland? As he keeps saying "who is going to stop us". Will the dollar remain the reserve currency? Or is Donald destroying that?

People wonder why I dislike him, he has destroyed US credibility in about a year and shown he will use the military if he wants to. There is little reason for Nations to be on our side if NATO is on the block.

---

I'm with you. We need to push the next candidates to hire good people and be a better manager.

Mitch Blood Green said:

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Redbrickbear said:

---

Mitch Blood Green said:

---

Realitybites said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

In an open fight I agree. We ate Iraq's lunch, that antiquated equipment was no match for the M1s and AH-64s. Those were the 2 that were the most impressive back then. I believe the Bradleys are more front and center than they were then. Iraq was stupid to fight us that way. They should have gone Fallujah on us, they would have stood a better chance.

I don't believe Iran will fight us in an open war, it will be asymmetrical, terrain and guerilla. They can draw it out, I think more Afghanistan IED-fest.

Will be interesting if it goes conventional.

Conversation has been fun, what could have been with a different path! As long as it wasn't Light Infantry...

As for the quagmire, yes....

---

The IEDs fly around now. We live in droneworld. There may not be another classic tank battle, just like there may not be another classic battle between battleships...ever.

But the most interesting thing about this war is the willingness of the government so far to give the middle finger to the populace and business and propagandize both 24/7.

Casualties? Not going to tell you. KIA? Not going to tell you. When we say damaged, we mean destroyed. Not to mention the constant filp flopping between peace talks and a ground invasion designed to head fake the market.

Shut up, peasant, and prepare for your kids to be drafted.

---

If there's one thing the Trumps have been able to do, that's avoid fighting in war. His family came to America to avoid military service in Germany.

---

?

"Mary Anne MacLeod Trump, emigrated from Scotland in 1930"

"Friedrich Trump (Grandfather): Immigrated to the U.S. from Kallstadt, Germany, in 1885 at age 16. He moved to the West during the gold rush, running restaurants and hotels before settling in New York."

---

(Grandpa Trump) Born and raised in Kallstadt, in what was then the Kingdom of Bavaria, Trump immigrated to the United States in 1885.

As he had failed to complete mandatory military service and notify the authorities of his departure in 1885, the Bavarian government stripped him of his citizenship in 1905 and ordered him to leave.

---

So he was 16 years old (a kid) in 1885 when he left the Kingdom of Bavaria

No war was on at the time

Pretty brave to head out and try to make his way in the world at that age

And we are attacking him why?

Redbrickbear said:

---

Mitch Blood Green said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Mitch Blood Green said:

---

Realitybites said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

In an open fight I agree. We ate Iraq's lunch, that antiquated equipment was no match for the M1s and AH-64s. Those were the 2 that were the most impressive back then. I believe the Bradleys are more front and center than they were then. Iraq was stupid to fight us that way. They should have gone Fallujah on us, they would have stood a better chance.

I don't believe Iran will fight us in an open war, it will be asymmetrical, terrain and guerilla. They can draw it out, I think more Afghanistan IED-fest.

Will be interesting if it goes conventional.

Conversation has been fun, what could have been with a different path! As long as it wasn't Light Infantry...

As for the quagmire, yes....

---

The IEDs fly around now. We live in droneworld. There may not be another classic tank battle, just like there may not be another classic battle between battleships...ever.

But the most interesting thing about this war is the willingness of the government so far to give the middle finger to the populace and business and propagandize both 24/7.

Casualties? Not going to tell you. KIA? Not going to tell you. When we say damaged, we mean destroyed. Not to mention the constant filp flopping between peace talks and a ground invasion designed to head fake the market.

Shut up, peasant, and prepare for your kids to be drafted.

---

If there's one thing the Trumps have been able to do, that's avoid fighting in war. His family came to America to avoid military service in Germany.

---

?

"Mary Anne MacLeod Trump, emigrated from Scotland in 1930"

"Friedrich Trump (Grandfather): Immigrated to the U.S. from Kallstadt, Germany, in 1885 at age 16. He moved to the West during the gold rush, running restaurants and hotels before settling in New York."

---

(Grandpa Trump) Born and raised in Kallstadt, in what was then the Kingdom of Bavaria, Trump immigrated to the United States in 1885.

As he had failed to complete mandatory military service and notify the authorities of his departure in 1885, the Bavarian government stripped him of his citizenship in 1905 and ordered him to leave.

---

So he was 16 years old (a kid) in 1885 when he left the Kingdom of Bavaria

No war was on at the time

Pretty brave to head out and try to make his way in the world at that age

And we are attacking him why?

---

Wasn't that unusual. My Grandfather and his brother came over on a ship at 12 and 10 by themselves to Ellis Island. Sister met them in NY after she married US citizen. My family is Czech, Slovakian now... Had to have a sponsor.

Redbrickbear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Mitch Blood Green said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Mitch Blood Green said:

---

Realitybites said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

In an open fight I agree. We ate Iraq's lunch, that antiquated equipment was no match for the M1s and AH-64s. Those were the 2 that were the most impressive back then. I believe the Bradleys are more front and center than they were then. Iraq was stupid to fight us that way. They should have gone Fallujah on us, they would have stood a better chance.

I don't believe Iran will fight us in an open war, it will be asymmetrical, terrain and guerilla. They can draw it out, I think more Afghanistan IED-fest.

Will be interesting if it goes conventional.

Conversation has been fun, what could have been with a different path! As long as it wasn't Light Infantry...

As for the quagmire, yes....

---

The IEDs fly around now. We live in droneworld. There may not be another classic tank battle, just like there may not be another classic battle between battleships...ever.

But the most interesting thing about this war is the willingness of the government so far to give the middle finger to the populace and business and propagandize both 24/7.

Casualties? Not going to tell you. KIA? Not going to tell you. When we say damaged, we mean destroyed. Not to mention the constant filp flopping between peace talks and a ground invasion designed to head fake the market.

Shut up, peasant, and prepare for your kids to be drafted.

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If there's one thing the Trumps have been able to do, that's avoid fighting in war. His family came to America to avoid military service in Germany.

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?

"Mary Anne MacLeod Trump, emigrated from Scotland in 1930"

"Friedrich Trump (Grandfather): Immigrated to the U.S. from Kallstadt, Germany, in 1885 at age 16. He moved to the West during the gold rush, running restaurants and hotels before settling in New York."

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(Grandpa Trump) Born and raised in Kallstadt, in what was then the Kingdom of Bavaria, Trump immigrated to the United States in 1885.

As he had failed to complete mandatory military service and notify the authorities of his departure in 1885, the Bavarian government stripped him of his citizenship in 1905 and ordered him to leave.

---

So he was 16 years old (a kid) in 1885 when he left the Kingdom of Bavaria

No war was on at the time

Pretty brave to head out and try to make his way in the world at that age

And we are attacking him why?

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Wasn't that unusual. My Grandfather and his brother came over on a ship at 12 and 10 by themselves to Ellis Island. Sister met them in NY after she married US citizen. My family is Czech, Slovakian now... Had to have a sponsor.

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Nice!

And I hope no one is attacking them 150 years later as "cowards" for leaving mandatory monarchist military service as kids to find economic opportunities in the New World

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No, but they had to show that they would not be an economic burden. His sister had to support them. Also, stayed 30 day quarentine on Ellis Island.

Redbrickbear said:

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Mitch Blood Green said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Mitch Blood Green said:

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Realitybites said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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In an open fight I agree. We ate Iraq's lunch, that antiquated equipment was no match for the M1s and AH-64s. Those were the 2 that were the most impressive back then. I believe the Bradleys are more front and center than they were then. Iraq was stupid to fight us that way. They should have gone Fallujah on us, they would have stood a better chance.

I don't believe Iran will fight us in an open war, it will be asymmetrical, terrain and guerilla. They can draw it out, I think more Afghanistan IED-fest.

Will be interesting if it goes conventional.

Conversation has been fun, what could have been with a different path! As long as it wasn't Light Infantry...

As for the quagmire, yes....

---

The IEDs fly around now. We live in droneworld. There may not be another classic tank battle, just like there may not be another classic battle between battleships...ever.

But the most interesting thing about this war is the willingness of the government so far to give the middle finger to the populace and business and propagandize both 24/7.

Casualties? Not going to tell you. KIA? Not going to tell you. When we say damaged, we mean destroyed. Not to mention the constant filp flopping between peace talks and a ground invasion designed to head fake the market.

Shut up, peasant, and prepare for your kids to be drafted.

---

If there's one thing the Trumps have been able to do, that's avoid fighting in war. His family came to America to avoid military service in Germany.

---

?

"Mary Anne MacLeod Trump, emigrated from Scotland in 1930"

"Friedrich Trump (Grandfather): Immigrated to the U.S. from Kallstadt, Germany, in 1885 at age 16. He moved to the West during the gold rush, running restaurants and hotels before settling in New York."

---

(Grandpa Trump) Born and raised in Kallstadt, in what was then the Kingdom of Bavaria, Trump immigrated to the United States in 1885.

As he had failed to complete mandatory military service and notify the authorities of his departure in 1885, the Bavarian government stripped him of his citizenship in 1905 and ordered him to leave.

---

So he was 16 years old (a kid) in 1885 when he left the Kingdom of Bavaria

No war was on at the time

Pretty brave to head out and try to make his way in the world at that age

And we are attacking him why?

---

A Trump avoiding service isn't an attack. It's a fact. (Here is my attack. His dad got citizenship via birthright) (14th amendment)

Isn't it unusually that none of them served? I didn't. My people did. Brothers, Cousins, friends (enemies). Not a soldier in the Trump line.

Yet, so ready to use force and send other peoples kids.

Mitch Blood Green said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Mitch Blood Green said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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Mitch Blood Green said:

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Realitybites said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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In an open fight I agree. We ate Iraq's lunch, that antiquated equipment was no match for the M1s and AH-64s. Those were the 2 that were the most impressive back then. I believe the Bradleys are more front and center than they were then. Iraq was stupid to fight us that way. They should have gone Fallujah on us, they would have stood a better chance.

I don't believe Iran will fight us in an open war, it will be asymmetrical, terrain and guerilla. They can draw it out, I think more Afghanistan IED-fest.

Will be interesting if it goes conventional.

Conversation has been fun, what could have been with a different path! As long as it wasn't Light Infantry...

As for the quagmire, yes....

---

The IEDs fly around now. We live in droneworld. There may not be another classic tank battle, just like there may not be another classic battle between battleships...ever.

But the most interesting thing about this war is the willingness of the government so far to give the middle finger to the populace and business and propagandize both 24/7.

Casualties? Not going to tell you. KIA? Not going to tell you. When we say damaged, we mean destroyed. Not to mention the constant filp flopping between peace talks and a ground invasion designed to head fake the market.

Shut up, peasant, and prepare for your kids to be drafted.

---

If there's one thing the Trumps have been able to do, that's avoid fighting in war. His family came to America to avoid military service in Germany.

---

?

"Mary Anne MacLeod Trump, emigrated from Scotland in 1930"

"Friedrich Trump (Grandfather): Immigrated to the U.S. from Kallstadt, Germany, in 1885 at age 16. He moved to the West during the gold rush, running restaurants and hotels before settling in New York."

---

(Grandpa Trump) Born and raised in Kallstadt, in what was then the Kingdom of Bavaria, Trump immigrated to the United States in 1885.

As he had failed to complete mandatory military service and notify the authorities of his departure in 1885, the Bavarian government stripped him of his citizenship in 1905 and ordered him to leave.

---

So he was 16 years old (a kid) in 1885 when he left the Kingdom of Bavaria

No war was on at the time

Pretty brave to head out and try to make his way in the world at that age

And we are attacking him why?

---

A Trump avoiding service isn't an attack. It's a fact.

Isn't it unusually that none of them served? I didn't. My people did…

---

It's a pretty low bar to attack a 16 year old kid from 150 years ago for not serving in a peace time monarchy army…a army in a forgiven country that is not our own

You didn't serve. 16 American Presidents didn't serve. 94% of Americans didn't serve.

Glass houses and all….

My ancestors served the Patriot cause in 1776, Texas in 1836, the CSA in 1861, both WWI and WWII

Does not somehow make me, a non-serving millennial born long after them, a person who gets to then claim their glory

And if they didn't serve it should also not reflect on me either

They were their own men. A ancestor kid of Trumps is a strange thing to bring up

Monday PM Update:

Oil Spikes As Iran Strikes Fully-Laden Kuwaiti Oil Tanker

Summary

• Iran struck a fully-laden Kuwaiti oil tanker in a Dubai port
• Iran rejects 'excessive, illogical' US demands while Trump mentions 'progress' with a 'more reasonable regime'. Trump again threatens to destroy Iran energy sites and Kharg Island. Hundreds of US Special Forces arrive in region.
• White House seriously considering ground operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium stockpile but also wants Tehran to negotiate handing it over willingly. Bessent: US will 'retake' Hormuz Strait 'over time'.
• Bazan oil refinery in Israel's northern city of Haifa is on fire after a second apparent Iranian missile strike of the war. Trump says US response 'coming shortly'.

Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, is warning against a US ground invasion of Iran.

On Kharg Island: "Your initial assault is gonna be mighty thin... a mass drop of the 82nd that's pretty sporty."

On Iran: "They are a highly intelligent, highly skilled warfighting nation. It would not be the pushover you saw with the Iraqi army."

On FPV drones: Iran has implemented them down to squad level, the same drones destroying Israeli tanks in Lebanon right now.

Mitch Blood Green said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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Mitch Blood Green said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Mexico will pay for the wall and the Arab countries will pay for the war.

BREAKING: President Trump is interested in calling on Arab countries to "pay for the cost of the Iran War," per White House officials.

President Trump will soon have more to say on the topic, according to the White House.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 30, 2026

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They will pay to rebuild their countries. Expect them to not do promised investments in the USA.

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The potential goes deeper than that. What is behind the dollar? Not gold, but the "full faith and credit of the US". As long as people believe that, we are good. We have now threatened allies, tariffed the world, and threatening to break treaties. Is the "full faith and credit" worth anything anymore? Will Donald just say, no we aren't paying and I am taking Greenland? As he keeps saying "who is going to stop us". Will the dollar remain the reserve currency? Or is Donald destroying that?

People wonder why I dislike him, he has destroyed US credibility in about a year and shown he will use the military if he wants to. There is little reason for Nations to be on our side if NATO is on the block.

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I'm with you. We need to push the next candidates to hire good people and be a better manager.

---

LOL

The Fatal Mirage of Kharg Island

An excellent analysis.

"Eerily similar to the British blockade that brought down Germany in WW1, the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz has effectively put a timer on America's war effort. The Gulf States import nearly 80% of their food, and 70% of that comes through the straits of Hormuz..."

"However, militarily, there is no viable means to break the blockade. The Lincoln Carrier Strike Group stationed in the Indian Ocean maintains a distance of 700-1000 km from Iranian shores to steer clear of anti-ship missiles.

The workhorse of the carrier group, the F/A-18 Superhornet, has a combat range of only 719 km with a typical interdiction loadout of 4 Mark 83 bombs, 2 AIM-9, and 2 drop tanks. As such, it cannot provide any meaningful coverage over the vast coastlines of Iran, where the anti-ship missile batteries and drone launchers of the country are situated.

It is equally impossible for US combat aircraft flying in from Israel, Jordan, and Cyprus, from 1200 km away and with multiple tanker refuelings, to provide any length of meaningful coverage over the vast coastal regions of Iran. Even if they could, most of Iran's missile infrastructure is hidden deep beneath the Zagros mountains and can quickly emerge from the tunnel complexes to fire a volley and withdraw. Buried beneath mountains in bunkers made from UHP concrete, these missile cities are practically indestructible, and even strikes with 200 kt nuclear warheads would not destroy them.

Drones can be launched from any repurposed Toyota Hilux,"

"The marine battalion of an MEU is built around its amphibious assault ships, and in order to reach Kharg, not only would these ships have to sail into the Straits of Hormuz through Iranian minefields, but they would also have to sail more than 900 km north to reach their destination. As they travel north, they would be in full view of the Iranian military and undoubtedly would be assaulted by a relentless deluge of drones, anti-ship missiles, and possibly even submarine attack or attacks by USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels).

This is a feat even the Lincoln Carrier Group, with its escort of Arleigh Burke-class destroyers specialized in air defense missions, has not dared to attempt.

One could argue that the Marines could do an air assault on Kharg Island instead, flying there on helicopters from outside the Straits. However, such a plan is limited by the low combat range of the V-22 Osprey Helicopters that would be used to undertake the mission. With a combat radius of 720 km, they do not have the range to undertake such a mission.

For these reasons, I believe it is unlikely that the Marines would be the ones to undertake the operation to seize Kharg Island. That task will likely fall on the shoulders of the 82nd Airborne Division."

Lots more there.

Realitybites said:

---

The Fatal Mirage of Kharg Island

An excellent analysis.

"Eerily similar to the British blockade that brought down Germany in WW1, the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz has effectively put a timer on America's war effort. The Gulf States import nearly 80% of their food, and 70% of that comes through the straits of Hormuz..."

"However, militarily, there is no viable means to break the blockade. The Lincoln Carrier Strike Group stationed in the Indian Ocean maintains a distance of 700-1000 km from Iranian shores to steer clear of anti-ship missiles.

The workhorse of the carrier group, the F/A-18 Superhornet, has a combat range of only 719 km with a typical interdiction loadout of 4 Mark 83 bombs, 2 AIM-9, and 2 drop tanks. As such, it cannot provide any meaningful coverage over the vast coastlines of Iran, where the anti-ship missile batteries and drone launchers of the country are situated.

It is equally impossible for US combat aircraft flying in from Israel, Jordan, and Cyprus, from 1200 km away and with multiple tanker refuelings, to provide any length of meaningful coverage over the vast coastal regions of Iran. Even if they could, most of Iran's missile infrastructure is hidden deep beneath the Zagros mountains and can quickly emerge from the tunnel complexes to fire a volley and withdraw. Buried beneath mountains in bunkers made from UHP concrete, these missile cities are practically indestructible, and even strikes with 200 kt nuclear warheads would not destroy them.

Drones can be launched from any repurposed Toyota Hilux,"

"The marine battalion of an MEU is built around its amphibious assault ships, and in order to reach Kharg, not only would these ships have to sail into the Straits of Hormuz through Iranian minefields, but they would also have to sail more than 900 km north to reach their destination. As they travel north, they would be in full view of the Iranian military and undoubtedly would be assaulted by a relentless deluge of drones, anti-ship missiles, and possibly even submarine attack or attacks by USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels).

This is a feat even the Lincoln Carrier Group, with its escort of Arleigh Burke-class destroyers specialized in air defense missions, has not dared to attempt.

One could argue that the Marines could do an air assault on Kharg Island instead, flying there on helicopters from outside the Straits. However, such a plan is limited by the low combat range of the V-22 Osprey Helicopters that would be used to undertake the mission. With a combat radius of 720 km, they do not have the range to undertake such a mission.

For these reasons, I believe it is unlikely that the Marines would be the ones to undertake the operation to seize Kharg Island. That task will likely fall on the shoulders of the 82nd Airborne Division."

Lots more there.

---

Thanks for sharing the link to the full article. Very interesting and detailed. Sounds like it's gonna get messy if we really want to push this.

Rubio: “Imagine if instead of spending billions on weapons, Iran spent that money on its people. They’d have a much different country.” Fascinating pic.twitter.com/rx0UQkBSGi

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 31, 2026

Realitybites said:

---

The Fatal Mirage of Kharg Island

An excellent analysis.

"Eerily similar to the British blockade that brought down Germany in WW1, the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz has effectively put a timer on America's war effort. The Gulf States import nearly 80% of their food, and 70% of that comes through the straits of Hormuz..."

"However, militarily, there is no viable means to break the blockade. The Lincoln Carrier Strike Group stationed in the Indian Ocean maintains a distance of 700-1000 km from Iranian shores to steer clear of anti-ship missiles.

The workhorse of the carrier group, the F/A-18 Superhornet, has a combat range of only 719 km with a typical interdiction loadout of 4 Mark 83 bombs, 2 AIM-9, and 2 drop tanks. As such, it cannot provide any meaningful coverage over the vast coastlines of Iran, where the anti-ship missile batteries and drone launchers of the country are situated.

It is equally impossible for US combat aircraft flying in from Israel, Jordan, and Cyprus, from 1200 km away and with multiple tanker refuelings, to provide any length of meaningful coverage over the vast coastal regions of Iran. Even if they could, most of Iran's missile infrastructure is hidden deep beneath the Zagros mountains and can quickly emerge from the tunnel complexes to fire a volley and withdraw. Buried beneath mountains in bunkers made from UHP concrete, these missile cities are practically indestructible, and even strikes with 200 kt nuclear warheads would not destroy them.

Drones can be launched from any repurposed Toyota Hilux,"

"The marine battalion of an MEU is built around its amphibious assault ships, and in order to reach Kharg, not only would these ships have to sail into the Straits of Hormuz through Iranian minefields, but they would also have to sail more than 900 km north to reach their destination. As they travel north, they would be in full view of the Iranian military and undoubtedly would be assaulted by a relentless deluge of drones, anti-ship missiles, and possibly even submarine attack or attacks by USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels).

This is a feat even the Lincoln Carrier Group, with its escort of Arleigh Burke-class destroyers specialized in air defense missions, has not dared to attempt.

One could argue that the Marines could do an air assault on Kharg Island instead, flying there on helicopters from outside the Straits. However, such a plan is limited by the low combat range of the V-22 Osprey Helicopters that would be used to undertake the mission. With a combat radius of 720 km, they do not have the range to undertake such a mission.

For these reasons, I believe it is unlikely that the Marines would be the ones to undertake the operation to seize Kharg Island. That task will likely fall on the shoulders of the 82nd Airborne Division."

Lots more there.

---

Point target seizure and holding is what they do. Probably Rangers in first, supported by 82nd and hold on. Lots of flights from Hunter in Savannah being reported.

500 feet, no reserve, just carry more ammo too low for reserve anyway... That will be a hell of a jump on an island.

303Bear said:

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muddybrazos said:

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Rubio: “Imagine if instead of spending billions on weapons, Iran spent that money on its people. They’d have a much different country.” Fascinating pic.twitter.com/rx0UQkBSGi

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 31, 2026

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The tone deafness of that statement is staggering. Literally the same could be said of the USA. What *if* we spent the $6-800Billion a year of our defense budget on domestic projects for the benefit of *checks notes* americans.... [insert mind blown gif here].

Or, better yet, what if we cut taxes and let people keep more of their earned money instead of stealing it to send off to buy bombs to blow up things in foreign countries.

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Maybe the most powerful and richest country in the world should pull into its tortoise shell and create a nice, big power vacuum.

EatMoreSalmon said:

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303Bear said:

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muddybrazos said:

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Rubio: “Imagine if instead of spending billions on weapons, Iran spent that money on its people. They’d have a much different country.” Fascinating pic.twitter.com/rx0UQkBSGi

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 31, 2026

---

The tone deafness of that statement is staggering. Literally the same could be said of the USA. What *if* we spent the $6-800Billion a year of our defense budget on domestic projects for the benefit of *checks notes* americans.... [insert mind blown gif here].

Or, better yet, what if we cut taxes and let people keep more of their earned money instead of stealing it to send off to buy bombs to blow up things in foreign countries.

---

Maybe the most powerful and richest country in the world should pull into its tortoise shell and create a nice, big power vacuum.

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Which Beijing and Moscow would fill in very short order.

Then of course the Democrats would shriek about the GOP not protecting American interests.

Cracked the missile city code.

We might see many more of these strikes on the other remaining missile cities soon. https://t.co/iZ66jQTGuG

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 31, 2026