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Welcome back! It’s time to project the Big 12 season for every team once again. Over the next couple of weeks, I will go through the entirety of the upcoming season for each team in the Big 12, pick the conference champion and make bowl projections.
Obviously, there is still a lot that can change, but barring significant injuries for any of the teams, we are in a good spot for some predictions. With that said, let's do this!
- Week 1: Baylor 24, Auburn 21
- Week 2: Baylor 44, SMU 30
- Week 3: Baylor 55, Samford 9
- Week 4: Arizona State 34, Baylor 31
- Week 5: Baylor 37, Oklahoma State 20
Baylor vs. Kansas State, Saturday, Oct. 4, McLane Stadium
Another top 25 matchup for the Bears in Waco this season, which should make for yet another excellent game atmosphere. Both of these programs are in a good spot at this point in the season and have a chance to make a statement while clearing up the Big 12 picture a little bit for a week. This is a really good matchup as both teams should be strong in the trenches and have playmakers on both sides of the football.
Last year, Kansas State had an up-and-down season in large part due to quarterback play. In fact, the Wildcats were 6-0 and averaged 37.3 points per game when Avery Johnson completed over 60% of his passes. That dropped to 25.3 points per game and a 3-4 record when he did not reach that number. They were also 0-3 in games where he threw two or more interceptions and 0-2 when he threw the ball more than 34 times. He was very inefficient multiple times last year, which cost them. If the Wildcats want any hope of winning this game, he will have to be accurate, hit on big plays and take care of the football.
Kansas State was 77th in the nation in pass defense and 58th in pass efficiency defense, which were solid numbers, especially when you take into account they had a strong run defense. But they lose three starters in the secondary and a really good linebacker. I expect them to take a little bit of a step back in pass defense, which could see them fall outside the top 80 this upcoming season. When Baylor faced teams that were outside the top 70 in passing yards allowed, which Kansas State was a year ago, the Bears went 4-1 while averaging 44.4 points per game. I expect Kansas State to be the same or worse this year, which means Sawyer Robertson and this offense should have chances to feast.
Ultimately, I like that Baylor gets this game at home, and the matchups really do favor the Bears, as the Wildcats are weaker against the pass and don’t have a quarterback who has shown consistency to completely pick apart the Bears' secondary on the road.
- Prediction: Baylor 36, Kansas State 27
Rest of the Big 12 Slate
Friday, October 3
- West Virginia 14 at BYU 20
Saturday, October 4
- Iowa State 29 at Cincinnati 26
- Texas Tech 26 at Houston 23
- Oklahoma State 31 at Arizona 30
- Colorado 27 at TCU 38
- Kansas 24 at UCF 20
Big 12 Standings
- T1. Arizona State – 5-0 (2-0)
- T1. Utah – 5-0 (2-0)
- T1. BYU — 5-0 (2-0)
- T4. Baylor — 5-1 (2-1)
- T4. Kansas State — 5-1 (2-1)
- T4. Kansas — 4-2 (2-1)
- T4. Iowa State — 4-2 (2-1)
- T8. Texas Tech — 4-1 (1-1)
- T8. TCU — 4-1 (1-1)
- T8. Oklahoma State — 3-2 (1-1)
- T8. Cincinnati — 3-2 (1-1)
- 12. Colorado – 3-3 (1-2)
- T13. Houston — 3-2 (0-2)
- T13. UCF — 2-3 (0-2)
- T13. Arizona – 2-3 (0-2)
- 16. West Virginia — 1-5 (0-3)
