Predicting the Big 12 Season: Trap Game for the Bears, Can They Survive?

👉 Fall Camp Access on SicEm365 for just $1

Welcome back! It’s time to project the Big 12 season for every team once again. Over the next couple of weeks, I will go through the entirety of the upcoming season for each team in the Big 12, pick the conference champion and make bowl projections.

Obviously, there is still a lot that can change, but barring significant injuries for any of the teams, we are in a good spot for some predictions. With that said, let's do this!

• Week 1: Baylor 24, Auburn 21 
• Week 2: Baylor 44, SMU 30
• Week 3: Baylor 55, Samford 9
• Week 4: Arizona State 34, Baylor 31
• Week 5: Baylor 37, Oklahoma State 20
• Week 6: Baylor 36, Kansas State 27
• Week 7: BYE WEEK
• Week 8: Baylor 32, TCU 38

Baylor at Cincinnati, Saturday, Oct. 25, Nippert Stadium

Both of these teams are coming off emotional losses in very close games on the road. The Bearcats get to go back home for this one. I expect an absolute battle between two teams who are desperate to stay in the Big 12 title hunt.

Cincinnati is losing its best offensive player (Corey Kiner), top wide receiver (Xzavier Henderson) and best offensive lineman (Luke Kandra). Those losses will be felt in some of the bigger matchups this season, particularly when they need to keep up with a high-powered offense like they will have to in this one. In those crucial moments, I don't think they will be consistent enough with their one-on-one matchups, whether it is in the trenches or with the skill players. These losses will be felt in this game.

I think the Cincinnati defense will be improved this year, but I do think the end of the season for both of these teams a year ago may provide some context for what could happen this season. The Bearcats allowed 32 points per game across the final five games of the season, while the Bears averaged 41.3 points per game over the final six games. While these don’t mean everything, I do think it shows one offense trending in the right direction heading into the 2025 season, while one defense is not. I think the truth will be in the middle of those numbers.

This is one of the biggest trap games on the Bears' schedule, and it is a must-win for both programs at this point in the season. I expect a close one.

• Prediction: Baylor 35, Cincinnati 30

Rest of the Big 12 Slate

• Saturday, October 25
• Houston 12 at Arizona State 30
• Kansas State 24 at Kansas 28
• BYU 17 at Iowa State 33
• Oklahoma State 28 at Texas Tech 44
• Colorado 24 at Utah 23
• TCU 33 at West Virginia 27

Big 12 Standings

• 1. Arizona State – 7-1 (4-1)
• T2. Utah – 6-2 (3-2)
• T2. Kansas State — 6-2 (3-2)
• T2. BYU — 6-2 (3-2)
• T2. Baylor — 6-2 (3-2)
• T2. Texas Tech — 6-2 (3-2)
• T2. TCU — 6-2 (3-2)
• T2. Kansas — 5-3 (3-2) 
• T2. Iowa State — 5-3 (3-2)
• T2. Colorado – 5-3 (3-2)
• T11. Houston — 5-3 (2-3)
• T11. Cincinnati — 4-4 (2-3)
• T11. Oklahoma State — 4-4 (2-3)
• 14. Arizona – 3-4 (1-3)
• 15. West Virginia — 2-6 (1-4)
• 16. UCF — 2-5 (0-4)