S11 Film Preview: 2017 Texas Tech
Baylor heads to AT&T Stadium in Arlington to take on the explosive Texas Tech Red Raiders this weekend looking to capitalize on the momentum from last week's victory over Kansas. Tech (4-5) has a couple close losses against solid Oklahoma State and Kansas State teams. Their Head Coach is former Tech QB Kliff Kingsbury who has an impressive resume as an offensive playcaller from his days as offensive coordinator at Houston and Texas A&M under Kevin Sumlin.
For some background on how Tech has performed statistically this season, here is a prior article going in-depth: S11 Stats Preview.
Offense
Tech is the fifth Baylor opponent this season to run a variation on the Air Raid offensive system that was primarily developed by Mike Leach and Hal Mumme with an emphasis on spreading things out to pass the ball and precise execution of a few base passing concepts. This link is a really good primer on it as far as the passing game is concerned. Kingsbury not only had time with Mike Leach but he used to work under Dana Holgorsen as well. In the running game Texas Tech has been predominantly running power, zone, and draw based blocking schemes but has added a couple wrinkles this season with a counter play where the backside tackle and guard pull playside.
They also scored on a rocket pitch against OSU where they get the defense flowing one way and pitch to a sprinting tailback going the other way.
Personnel
#16 Nic Shimonek (6-3 225, Sr.) was the backup to Patrick Mahomes last season and has been operating the offense well. He's thrown for over 3,000 yards already with a 69% completion percentage and a 26 to 7 touchdown/interception ratio. He's not the runner Patrick Mahomes was and won't create big plays improvising the way that the first round pick did but Shimonek consistently flashes accuracy, good decisions, and good mechanics which Air Raid guru Mike Leach rates as his top three criteria at the position. His arm strength is ok and he's mobile enough not to be a statue but neither attribute stands out. His backups are Tyler JC transfer #6 McLane Carter (6-3 215, So.) and athletic freshman #7 Jett Duffey. (6-1 200, R-Fr.)
At tailback the Raiders use three main options led by #24 Tre King (5-11 190, Jr.) who leads them with 96 carries and averages 5.2 yards per carry with a long of 73. He's the most balanced runner of the trio who does a good job making people miss but also falls forward a good amount. The leading back by yardage is speedster #4 Justin Stockton (5-10 205, Sr.) who has 525 yards on 86 carries and ripped off a long of 84 yards. He's very dangerous in a straight line but isn't as elusive as some past Raider tailbacks. The physical inside runner of the trio is #32 Desmond Nisby (6-1 235, Jr.) who has 227 yards and 7 touchdowns.
At Wide Receiver the Red Raiders are as talented and deep as anybody in the Big 12. Their most dangerous man is #2 Keke Coutee (5-11 180, Jr.) who starts at the Y position as a slot receiver and has three touchdowns of 70 yards or more and has over 1,000 yards already. The other man in the slot is experienced #13 Cameron Batson (5-9 175, Sr.) who starts at H and has hauled in 48 passes this year for an average of over 5 per game. Outside they feature big possession target #14 Dylan Cantrell (6-3 220, Sr.) at both Z and X while youngster #9 T.J. Vasher (6-6 190, R-Fr.) at Z and athletic #11 Derrick Willies (6-4 210, Sr.) at Z offer some deep threat options outside to go with their height.
On the Offensive Line they have been fortunate to start the same five guys for the last seven games. The only obvious weak spot is that true freshman #56 Jack Anderson (6-5 320, Fr.) is their Right Guard. This line isn't going to remind anyone of Oklahoma but has done well. Football Outsiders has their line ranked 18th in adjusted line yards this season. They are much better than the group that struggled last year.
Defense
Tech's defense is in it's third year with coordinator David Gibbs. They run a scheme that will base out of a 3-4 alignment (three linemen, one linebacker) and use both three man and four man fronts situationally. They will use both your standard over/under fronts and also the tight 3-4 alignment with both ends in 4i techniques that the Bears have seen from Texas, Oklahoma, and partly from West Virginia. When they use that tight alignment they can make it difficult for blocking schemes to reach their linebackers.
In Coverage they use a lot of Cover 3, Quarters/Cover 4 variations, and other zone looks as their primary option. Their softer corner techniques for Cover Three and Cover 4 tend to leave hitches, comebacks, and posts open a lot.
Late last year they got a bit more aggressive against their opponents and rolled the dice with man to man. It really helped them upset TCU as Kenny Hill didn't react well to it.
They did some of that against Baylor but the wide splits of the receivers let Zach Smith throw successfully against it and Baylor averaged 40+ yards per drive. Tech has largely gone back to their base coverages since then.
One of the things that Tech used to help limit WVU's running game was essentially a 5-1 alignment. It starts with that tight defensive line alignment with a Nose Tackle across from the Center and both ends in 4i Techniques inside each offensive tackle. They had one Linebacker stacked behind the Nose Tackle and an outside backer outside each tackle. This made running the ball very difficult but did leave them wide open for Run/Pass Option plays that WVU exploited several times ona couple of their scoring drives. Those plays may not be listed as runs, but it's basically glorified toss plays.
Personnel
Their best run stopper is #99 Mychealon Thomas (6-2 320, Sr.) who lines up at Nose. Their ends feature #96 Broderick Washington (6-3 295, So.) at the heavier spot that is more like a DT and will rotate #52 Zach Barnes (6-3 260, Sr.) and #53 Eli Howard (6-4 260, So.) at the other spot. Howard leads the team with 4.5 sacks.
Their Rush linebacker lost their starter to injury but has two productive players with #13 Kolin Hill (6-2 245, Jr.) and #9 Tony Jones (6-2 225, Jr.) at the position. Their returning starter at Middle Linebacker is #1 Jordyn Brooks (6-1 240, So.) who has grown into the position after struggling as a freshman early last season. Tech got one of their best guys from 2015 back after #40 Dakota Allen (6-1 235, Jr.) came back from a JC stint where he was featured on the tv show Last Chance U. Bpth guys run well and are good hitters. Their Nickel LB position has started #31 Justus Parker (6-1 210, So.) the last few games.
In the secondary their most stable starter is team captain #7 Jah'Shawn Johnson (5-10 185, Jr.) who isn't big but still manages to be physical and lead them in tackles. The other safety is JC transfer #15 Vaughnte Dorsey (5-11 200, Jr.) who is more of a run support player. Their corner rotation includes #23 Damarcus Fields (6-1 200, R-Fr.), #4 Desmon Smith (6-2 190, So.), #5 Octavious Morgan (6-1 205, Jr.), and #28 Jaylon Lane. (6-2 190, Jr.)
Special Teams
Tech has had four different kickers try field goals this year and is 6 of 14 on the year while going 5 of 11 from inside 40 yards. Tech is decent at covering punts and ranks 56th nationally in opponent punt return average but really struggles at covering kickoffs ranking 124th but they get touchbacks on half of their kickoffs. Their return game is below average with a 61st ranking on kickoff returns and a 95th ranking in punt returns.
Final Points
How did Iowa State stop them?
Iowa State gave them a lot of conservative coverages and favorable fronts to run against and dared them to be patient and work their way down the field. Tech far too often didn't take what was there and wasted a lot of downs like this one where they have numbers to run against but drop back anyway. This drive was jailbreak screen, dropback, and a sack against a front you could have run against.
Tech did string together some productive drives but the textbook example of this tactic was Tech's 5th drive. The Cyclones gave up a 15 play,58 yard drive and Tech misses a field goal at the end of it. ISU did a great job fighting to limit the run with limited numbers and their corners and safeties were very good at blowing up sweeps and screens.
How did they slow down Oklahoma State?
They moved the ball well but gave up essentially the same 60ish yards per drive Baylor did. OSU simply missed two field goals and had a blown route give away a pick six on a likely scoring drive.
How did Brewer do against Kansas?
Brewer did a great job. He made wise decisions, completed 80% of his passes, and avoided turnovers. He averaged 5.5 per non-sack carry and 10.9 yards per attempt. His touchdown to Feurbacher was likely his fourth read on the play.
What offensive wrinkles worked against Kansas?
Baylor did a really good job of using RPO plays to give Brewer some easier reads part of the time and let the receivers get loose for big plays. I also liked lining up Wainwright as a split receiver in the red zone. That could pay big dividends going forward.
Prediction?
Neither fanbase is happy with their record. I think that Baylor has improved over the course of the season but the last time I checked Tech has a capable offensive line and Baylor has two tight ends and two true freshman among it's top seven linemen. Baylor likely keeps this one close with a chance to win late like the Duke, OU, KSU, and WVU games but loses the game. Bears can realistically win this but that would involve more consistency from a defense that has struggled against good Air Raid teams.
Baylor 31, Tech 41
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