Baylor Football

Game Thread: Bears Aim to Keep Momentum Rolling Against TCU

Game thread as Baylor faces TCU.
October 16, 2026
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898 Comments
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SICEM365 GAME THREAD

Baylor vs. TCU

The Revivalry • Blackout on the Brazos
Saturday, October 17, 2026 • 6:00 p.m. CT • FS1
McLane Stadium • Waco, TX • Home
Records Baylor 4-1 (2-0 Big 12) | TCU 2-3 (0-2 Big 12)
Coaches Dave Aranda (Year 7) vs. Sonny Dykes (Year 5)
Kickoff 6:00 p.m. CT / 7:00 p.m. ET
TV FS1 — Noah Reed, Petros Papadakis
Radio John Morris, Geff Gandy, Bryson Jackson • KRZI 1660 AM / 92.3 FM
Stream FS1 / FOX One • BaylorBears.com radio
Series TCU leads 60-54-7 • 122nd meeting (most-played in Texas)
Last meeting TCU 42, Baylor 36 (Fort Worth, Oct. 18, 2025)
Last in Waco Baylor 37, TCU 34 (walk-off FG, 2024 blackout)
Last game Baylor 55, Arizona State 19 (Oct. 3)
Line Baylor -5.5 • O/U 48.5 • as of Oct. 16

Why This Game Matters

  • The Revivalry — Blackout on the Brazos. Fans in black, anthracite uniforms likely back
  • Both teams off a bye. Baylor riding a four-game win streak after 55-19 at Arizona State
  • TCU has won nine of the last 11 in the series. Baylor last won at home in 2024
  • DJ Lagway is trending up after Big 12 Player of the Week (306 yards, 4 TD at ASU). Aranda says he is moving better
  • TCU is 2-3 and 0-2 in league play after one-score losses to North Carolina, UCF, and BYU

Series History

  • TCU leads 60-54-7 all-time. Baylor is 35-34-5 in Waco
  • Last meeting: TCU 42-36 in Fort Worth (2025), delayed by lightning
  • Last Waco meeting: Baylor 37-34 on a walk-off field goal in the 2024 blackout
  • Nine of the last 13 meetings decided by one score. TCU has won nine of the last 11
  • TCU this year: L 15-10 vs. North Carolina, W vs. Grambling & Arkansas State, L 21-13 at UCF, L 17-10 vs. BYU

Keys for Baylor

  1. Own the blackout. First blackout since the 2024 walk-off win. Use the crowd and the anthracite look.
  2. Pressure Jaden Craig. Harvard transfer has 1,400 yards and 8 TDs but four interceptions. TCU’s offense has stalled in close games.
  3. Run the ball against their front. Aranda called TCU’s D-line the best they have faced. Still need balance after the ASU explosion.
  4. Finish drives and finish the game. Last two Waco meetings ended on walk-off field goals (one each way). Do not leave it in the hands of the kickers.
  5. Keep the scoring defense intact. Five straight opponents held to 20 or fewer. TCU is only allowing 13.4 points per game.

Players to Watch

Baylor: QB DJ Lagway • RB Dawson Pendergrass • WR Gavin Freeman, Louis Brown IV, Jayden McGowan • LB Travion Barnes • S Micah Gifford, Bo Onu • DL Hosea Wheeler

TCU: QB Jaden Craig • RB Jeremy Payne • WR Ed Small • HC Sonny Dykes (Year 5) • strong defensive front and safety group

SicEm365 TCU / Blackout week reading

SICEM365
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Discussion from...

Game Thread: Bears Aim to Keep Momentum Rolling Against TCU

70,683 Views | 898 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by canoso
canoso
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boognish_bear said:

Barf



Yes, it only takes a spark to unnecessarily burn down a college football program. A still unscathed, unapologetic arsonist's (or arsonists') spark.
boognish_bear
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How do you get complacent on rivalry week?



Fifth-year senior wide receiver Jayden McGowan on Baylor's offensive performance and overall struggles against TCU on Saturday

"Really don't know what happened. We've just got to do better. We think maybe we got a little complacent over the bye week, and maybe the last week of practice wasn't as good as the week going into Arizona State. We're going to make sure that we can replicate these practices and have great days back to back to back, and we're going to fix this stuff so it won't happen again."
AC/DC
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boognish_bear said:

How do you get complacent on rivalry week?



Fifth-year senior wide receiver Jayden McGowan on Baylor's offensive performance and overall struggles against TCU on Saturday

"Really don't know what happened. We've just got to do better. We think maybe we got a little complacent over the bye week, and maybe the last week of practice wasn't as good as the week going into Arizona State. We're going to make sure that we can replicate these practices and have great days back to back to back, and we're going to fix this stuff so it won't happen again."


Complacent, lack of focus. Seems to be a consistent theme throughout Aranda's tenure during/after bye week.
Jacques Strap
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AC/DC said:

boognish_bear said:

How do you get complacent on rivalry week?



Fifth-year senior wide receiver Jayden McGowan on Baylor's offensive performance and overall struggles against TCU on Saturday

"Really don't know what happened. We've just got to do better. We think maybe we got a little complacent over the bye week, and maybe the last week of practice wasn't as good as the week going into Arizona State. We're going to make sure that we can replicate these practices and have great days back to back to back, and we're going to fix this stuff so it won't happen again."


Complacent, lack of focus. Seems to be a consistent theme throughout Aranda's tenure during/after bye week.


Expectations are set at the very top.

Nick Saban called a 7:30 a.m. staff and coaches meeting **the morning after winning a national championship** to focus on recruiting.

Key Details of Saban's Post-Championship Routine:

The Time: Typically scheduled for 7:30 a.m. the very next morning (or after returning from the game).
The Purpose: The early meetings were not held to celebrate the title, but to immediately refocus the coaching staff, address program needs, fix deficiencies, and catch up on recruitingwhich Saban famously felt fell behind during championship runs.
Staff Reaction: Former assistants like Kirby Smart and Jeremy Pruitt have frequently recalled how intense and surprising it was to be summoned so early after late-night celebrations.
cowboycwr
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Jacques Strap said:

AC/DC said:

boognish_bear said:

How do you get complacent on rivalry week?



Fifth-year senior wide receiver Jayden McGowan on Baylor's offensive performance and overall struggles against TCU on Saturday

"Really don't know what happened. We've just got to do better. We think maybe we got a little complacent over the bye week, and maybe the last week of practice wasn't as good as the week going into Arizona State. We're going to make sure that we can replicate these practices and have great days back to back to back, and we're going to fix this stuff so it won't happen again."


Complacent, lack of focus. Seems to be a consistent theme throughout Aranda's tenure during/after bye week.


Expectations are set at the very top.

Nick Saban called a 7:30 a.m. staff and coaches meeting **the morning after winning a national championship** to focus on recruiting.

Key Details of Saban's Post-Championship Routine:

The Time: Typically scheduled for 7:30 a.m. the very next morning (or after returning from the game).
The Purpose: The early meetings were not held to celebrate the title, but to immediately refocus the coaching staff, address program needs, fix deficiencies, and catch up on recruitingwhich Saban famously felt fell behind during championship runs.
Staff Reaction: Former assistants like Kirby Smart and Jeremy Pruitt have frequently recalled how intense and surprising it was to be summoned so early after late-night celebrations.

He also basically fired his OC before a national championship game that he lost. OR got onto that same OC for players being too "loud" at practice.

This documentary is not all roses for Saban. I watch it and see how he had no family life. Or several other key things that stand out that show he was not all knowing like some think.
AC/DC
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cowboycwr said:

Jacques Strap said:

AC/DC said:

boognish_bear said:

How do you get complacent on rivalry week?



Fifth-year senior wide receiver Jayden McGowan on Baylor's offensive performance and overall struggles against TCU on Saturday

"Really don't know what happened. We've just got to do better. We think maybe we got a little complacent over the bye week, and maybe the last week of practice wasn't as good as the week going into Arizona State. We're going to make sure that we can replicate these practices and have great days back to back to back, and we're going to fix this stuff so it won't happen again."


Complacent, lack of focus. Seems to be a consistent theme throughout Aranda's tenure during/after bye week.


Expectations are set at the very top.

Nick Saban called a 7:30 a.m. staff and coaches meeting **the morning after winning a national championship** to focus on recruiting.

Key Details of Saban's Post-Championship Routine:

The Time: Typically scheduled for 7:30 a.m. the very next morning (or after returning from the game).
The Purpose: The early meetings were not held to celebrate the title, but to immediately refocus the coaching staff, address program needs, fix deficiencies, and catch up on recruitingwhich Saban famously felt fell behind during championship runs.
Staff Reaction: Former assistants like Kirby Smart and Jeremy Pruitt have frequently recalled how intense and surprising it was to be summoned so early after late-night celebrations.

He also basically fired his OC before a national championship game that he lost. OR got onto that same OC for players being too "loud" at practice.

This documentary is not all roses for Saban. I watch it and see how he had no family life. Or several other key things that stand out that show he was not all knowing like some think.


There is no question Saban is intense. IMO, that has to be an integral part. I marvel at his attention to details. RESPECT comes along with that intensity. Here's a guy 5'& little and a room of giants are intimidated. Yet they follow his instruction to the T, very little "show boatin'" from Bama players. Success will do that. I know every coach has his way of coaching, but I would do everything to follow his lead on details if I coached. There is NO WAY most football players would respond to the monotone dribble that comes from Aranda. No wonder EVERY game has a slow/no start, no wonder EVERY post bye week is lackluster.
Family life… thinking most coaches nine-ten months each year have minimal family life. However, what I've seen Ms Terry is probably more involved than appears. Multiple athlete functions she's involved in. Players have mentioned by name and obviously, Saban communicates with her a bunch. I'm thinking there's more family time with Ms Terry than we know. That's just a guess on my part.
All that to say, I can see why players PLAY for the Saban's and Kirby Smart's and not the "Guru". We, unfortunately, just have a dud.
boognish_bear
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boykin_spaniel
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I don't think Shehan is wrong. 90%+ of the fan base jumps on board and it's a complete train wreck. It's not the first one. People only get on a train that's noted for wrecking so many times. (We Baylor fans are apparently very trusting of trains that derail)

I like Aranda. I actually find some of his quirks somewhat endearing? He beats to his own drum which I respect. That said this is a game that largely boils down to wins and losses and your record against rivals. Utter disaster when it comes to toad.

I don't think there's a win total per se but for any semblance of fan support returning I think it's 9+ wins (and 9 might be generous). Any less is an empty stadium and our new AD has nothing to sell. Bring back 7-5 and a Texas Bowl bid and McLane will be a ghost a town next year. Like "Houston we have a problem" ghost town. Like an "at least USC can blame amazing weather and surfing"
Guitarbiscuit
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boognish_bear said:




The fact McNamee said there wasn't some magic win number CDA needs to attain is, to me, somewhat disturbing. I hope the reality is different. Nobody cares about team vibes if you're 5-7.
Bearsalwayswin
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I like that he said it. Because if we win the next 3 and then lose the last 3 and win a bowl game that's a 8 win season that isn't trending in the right direction.
JudgeBear1845
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"maybe they pull off an upset against BYU in a couple of weeks"

boykin_spaniel
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I think the point of no win total is how it should be. State a win total or "make a bowl game" and you can easily get stuck in a box at 6-7 or 8-5 with a bowl win over a 5-7 team and a fan base clearly gone.
FLBear5630
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Bearsalwayswin said:

I like that he said it. Because if we win the next 3 and then lose the last 3 and win a bowl game that's a 8 win season that isn't trending in the right direction.

There is a big difference between the TCU loss at home and the Auburn loss in Atlanta.
bear2be2
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Guitarbiscuit said:

boognish_bear said:




The fact McNamee said there wasn't some magic win number CDA needs to attain is, to me, somewhat disturbing. I hope the reality is different. Nobody cares about team vibes if you're 5-7.
I think it's actually the opposite. I think that comment gives him the leeway to fire Aranda with a record that would generally be viewed as acceptable for the Baylor football program -- like 7-5, for instance -- if he doesn't feel like the program momentum and support is in a good place at season's end.

Doug has no attachment to Dave Aranda. He didn't hire him, and as a longtime Baylor fan, I can't imagine he's enjoyed the past several seasons. I don't think he's looking for reasons to retain Dave Aranda. I think the burden of proof has always been on Dave this season and remains so after last week's loss.
bear2be2
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FLBear5630 said:

Bearsalwayswin said:

I like that he said it. Because if we win the next 3 and then lose the last 3 and win a bowl game that's a 8 win season that isn't trending in the right direction.

There is a big difference between the TCU loss at home and the Auburn loss in Atlanta.
The problem for Dave is he didn't win either. Win one of those and the conversation around this season and Dave's future with the program is likely very different right now.

But in true Dave Aranda fashion, we lost both -- as we almost always do in the games that actually matter to our fanbase.
FLBear5630
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bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Bearsalwayswin said:

I like that he said it. Because if we win the next 3 and then lose the last 3 and win a bowl game that's a 8 win season that isn't trending in the right direction.

There is a big difference between the TCU loss at home and the Auburn loss in Atlanta.

The problem for Dave is he didn't win either. Win one of those and the conversation around this season and Dave's future with the program is likely very different right now.

But in true Dave Aranda fashion, we lost both -- as we almost always do in the games that actually matter to our fanbase.

I agree. Auburn I did not view as a bad loss. TCU, was a bad loss. Should he win one? Sure, but even if he wins out TCU is still a bad loss. A total number of wins doesn't change win or loss quality.
bear2be2
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FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Bearsalwayswin said:

I like that he said it. Because if we win the next 3 and then lose the last 3 and win a bowl game that's a 8 win season that isn't trending in the right direction.

There is a big difference between the TCU loss at home and the Auburn loss in Atlanta.

The problem for Dave is he didn't win either. Win one of those and the conversation around this season and Dave's future with the program is likely very different right now.

But in true Dave Aranda fashion, we lost both -- as we almost always do in the games that actually matter to our fanbase.

I agree. Auburn I did not view as a bad loss. TCU, was a bad loss. Should he win one? Sure, but even if he wins out TCU is still a bad loss. A total number of wins doesn't change win or loss quality.

My point is there are games on your schedule that matter more than others to fans. Dave is 0-2 in the most important games we've played this season.

If you want to know why Dave's relationship with fans has gotten so toxic despite a respectable overall record this season, you can point directly to the fact that -- even with a respectable overall record this season -- we continue to lose all of the games that fans are actually excited to watch.
AC/DC
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bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Bearsalwayswin said:

I like that he said it. Because if we win the next 3 and then lose the last 3 and win a bowl game that's a 8 win season that isn't trending in the right direction.

There is a big difference between the TCU loss at home and the Auburn loss in Atlanta.

The problem for Dave is he didn't win either. Win one of those and the conversation around this season and Dave's future with the program is likely very different right now.

But in true Dave Aranda fashion, we lost both -- as we almost always do in the games that actually matter to our fanbase.

I agree. Auburn I did not view as a bad loss. TCU, was a bad loss. Should he win one? Sure, but even if he wins out TCU is still a bad loss. A total number of wins doesn't change win or loss quality.

My point is there are games on your schedule that matter more than others to fans. Dave is 0-2 in the most important games we've played this season.

If you want to know why Dave's relationship with fans has gotten so toxic despite a respectable overall record this season, you can point directly to the fact that -- even with a respectable overall record this season -- we continue to lose all of the games that fans are actually excited to watch.


"Dave is 0-2 in the most important games we've played this season."
Baby, they're ALL important now going forward. I will never be convinced he could motivate a starving dog with ribs showing to eat. He almost makes me angry just to hear him speak. I'm not confident, in winning the next three games, the fans will return. Like an addict with multiple convictions to recover many just sigh.
bear2be2
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AC/DC said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

bear2be2 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Bearsalwayswin said:

I like that he said it. Because if we win the next 3 and then lose the last 3 and win a bowl game that's a 8 win season that isn't trending in the right direction.

There is a big difference between the TCU loss at home and the Auburn loss in Atlanta.

The problem for Dave is he didn't win either. Win one of those and the conversation around this season and Dave's future with the program is likely very different right now.

But in true Dave Aranda fashion, we lost both -- as we almost always do in the games that actually matter to our fanbase.

I agree. Auburn I did not view as a bad loss. TCU, was a bad loss. Should he win one? Sure, but even if he wins out TCU is still a bad loss. A total number of wins doesn't change win or loss quality.

My point is there are games on your schedule that matter more than others to fans. Dave is 0-2 in the most important games we've played this season.

If you want to know why Dave's relationship with fans has gotten so toxic despite a respectable overall record this season, you can point directly to the fact that -- even with a respectable overall record this season -- we continue to lose all of the games that fans are actually excited to watch.


"Dave is 0-2 in the most important games we've played this season."
Baby, they're ALL important now going forward. I will never be convinced he could motivate a starving dog with ribs showing to eat. He almost makes me angry just to hear him speak. I'm not confident, in winning the next three games, the fans will return. Like an addict with multiple convictions to recover many just sigh.

All games should be important to the coach and team. I'm talking specifically from the fans' point of view. And Dave has done a terrible job of getting his team prepared for the games that matter most to fans -- like home games, rivalry games, bowl games and high-profile nonconference games.
boykin_spaniel
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Even in 2021 we lost to a crappy toad team we're much better than on paper.
boognish_bear
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bear2be2 said:

Guitarbiscuit said:

boognish_bear said:




The fact McNamee said there wasn't some magic win number CDA needs to attain is, to me, somewhat disturbing. I hope the reality is different. Nobody cares about team vibes if you're 5-7.
I think it's actually the opposite. I think that comment gives him the leeway to fire Aranda with a record that would generally be viewed as acceptable for the Baylor football program -- like 7-5, for instance -- if he doesn't feel like the program momentum and support is in a good place at season's end.

Doug has no attachment to Dave Aranda. He didn't hire him, and as a longtime Baylor fan, I can't imagine he's enjoyed the past several seasons. I don't think he's looking for reasons to retain Dave Aranda. I think the burden of proof has always been on Dave this season and remains so after last week's loss.


What about Doug's bosses? I get the feeling they are big Dave fans because of who he is as a person... beyond what he is as a football coach. Of course I don't know that… just a feeling I have.

I wonder how much autonomy Doug really has on that decision. Although... if he does not have the autonomy to fire a coach I'm not sure any competent AD would wanna take that job next.
canoso
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boognish_bear said:

bear2be2 said:

Guitarbiscuit said:

boognish_bear said:




The fact McNamee said there wasn't some magic win number CDA needs to attain is, to me, somewhat disturbing. I hope the reality is different. Nobody cares about team vibes if you're 5-7.

I think it's actually the opposite. I think that comment gives him the leeway to fire Aranda with a record that would generally be viewed as acceptable for the Baylor football program -- like 7-5, for instance -- if he doesn't feel like the program momentum and support is in a good place at season's end.

Doug has no attachment to Dave Aranda. He didn't hire him, and as a longtime Baylor fan, I can't imagine he's enjoyed the past several seasons. I don't think he's looking for reasons to retain Dave Aranda. I think the burden of proof has always been on Dave this season and remains so after last week's loss.


What about Doug's bosses? I get the feeling they are big Dave fans because of who he is as a person... beyond what he is as a football coach. Of course I don't know that… just a feeling I have.

I wonder how much autonomy Doug really has on that decision. Although... if he does not have the autonomy to fire a coach I'm not sure any competent AD would wanna take that job next.

Come to think of it, we don't really know if any experienced ADs in other places were contacted or interviewed (and may have said "Are you kidding"?) before McNamee was hired, though for sure it was a rushed issue.
canoso
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canoso said:

boognish_bear said:

bear2be2 said:

Guitarbiscuit said:

boognish_bear said:




The fact McNamee said there wasn't some magic win number CDA needs to attain is, to me, somewhat disturbing. I hope the reality is different. Nobody cares about team vibes if you're 5-7.

I think it's actually the opposite. I think that comment gives him the leeway to fire Aranda with a record that would generally be viewed as acceptable for the Baylor football program -- like 7-5, for instance -- if he doesn't feel like the program momentum and support is in a good place at season's end.

Doug has no attachment to Dave Aranda. He didn't hire him, and as a longtime Baylor fan, I can't imagine he's enjoyed the past several seasons. I don't think he's looking for reasons to retain Dave Aranda. I think the burden of proof has always been on Dave this season and remains so after last week's loss.


What about Doug's bosses? I get the feeling they are big Dave fans because of who he is as a person... beyond what he is as a football coach. Of course I don't know that… just a feeling I have.

I wonder how much autonomy Doug really has on that decision. Although... if he does not have the autonomy to fire a coach I'm not sure any competent AD would wanna take that job next.



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