JJ Joe: Keys To Beating No. 16 Iowa State

Going to Ames and getting home with a win will be a tall task. They are a tough, veteran team. But stranger things have happened. I think this team is capable of beating good teams if they can put four quarters together on all sides of the ball. What are your keys to a victory against the Cyclones?

JJ Joe:

This version of Matt Campbell's Cyclones is similar, at least defensively, to what we've gotten used to seeing from an Iowa State football team. Defensively, they are going to keep everything in front and dare offensive coordinator Jake Spavital to attack their defense with the Baylor run game that's really struggling. The Cyclones work out of their base 3-3-5 defense but are really aggressive against the run. This is evidenced by the fact that two of their three leading tacklers are the two safeties, Malik Verdon (RJr.) and Beau Freyler (Sr.), who have 26 tackles and 27 tackles, respectively. Compare that to head coach Dave Aranda's defense, where Matt Jones (6Sr.) and Keaton Thomas (RSo.) are BU's leading tacklers by a lot, 45 and 43, respectively.

There are yards to be gained on the ground against the Cyclone defense, but they are very aggressive against the run, meaning they'll show that 3-3-5 or show a 4-2-5 look, but on expected run plays, or once they read run, you'll have seven defenders within five yards of the line of scrimmage immediately upon reading run. Their linebackers and the safeties are responsible for run support and play downhill fast. However, their back safety or clean-up safety will play very deep, relying on his teammates to cover the run while his focus is on preventing deep pass plays or long touchdown runs. The magic for Coach Spavital on Saturday will be how effective Baylor is in generating some semblance of a run game and welcoming tight end Michael Trigg (RJr.) back to take advantage of the middle of the field. This defense is so aggressive against the run, but there will be opportunities in the middle of the field. 

Not necessarily for crossers, but for guys who can find the voids, sit down or slow down, and then generate yards after the catch. I like the opportunity to use Trigg, and hopefully, they will find a way to get Josh Cameron (RJr.) working inside a little more instead of the little guys. Cameron has learned how to catch and maneuver in traffic as a result of his punt return experience, so we need to get his big body in the middle of the field as well. This Cyclone defense gave up explosive runs against Iowa as well as last week against Houston, but neither team consistently turned those into touchdowns. This will be a dirty game in which I like Bryson Washington (RFr.) and a mix of Dawson Pendergrass (So.) more than the other runners. Now, hopefully, Richard Reese (Jr.) is available because they have given up a few long runs, and finding a way to get him on the field and get him five to seven touches would be worth it.

Defensively, this isn't the Cyclone offense we remember that was very tight end-centric with a dash of wide receiver play when Brock Purdy led them a few years ago, nor does this offense have a great runner like we've seen at Iowa State in the past when they had David Montgomery followed by Breece Hall, both of whom are currently in the NFL. They have a really solid back in Abu Sama (So.), who had a really good day last week in Houston with 101 rushing yards and a score, but this team has used a run-by-committee approach as well. Their quarterback, Rocco Becht, looks to have settled in after taking over for Purdy, and he's been very efficient getting the ball to Jayden Higgens (Sr.), who has 25 grabs for 287 yards with four touchdowns, and the speedy Jaylin Noel (Sr.), who had a 75 yard TD against Iowa. 

Baylor's opportunity defensively will be to get this team to third and six or more and take the chance of generating pressure on Becht, as he's not very mobile and prefers not to run with the ball. He's avoided sacks with only two this season, but Iowa State has been able to dictate each game outside of the Iowa game, where they trailed until the very end. Coach Aranda has to find the magic to avoid this unit giving up an early easy 10 to 14 points. It will be very difficult in Ames at night to overcome a 10-point deficit against the way their defensive coordinator, Jon Heacock, calls defenses. Once again, like last week, this is not a dominant offensive football team. Let me say it this way: they've not shown to be the type of offense that will consistently drive down the field and score touchdowns against an above-average defense. Houston held them to 13 points until a late 50+ yard run for a touchdown, which pushed their lead to 20-0. 

However, Coach Aranda has to call a game expecting offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser to take a few chances early to generate a lead. We have to lean into base defense, expecting tendency breakers on the first drive, like BYU did last week, resulting in Baylor facing a 21-point deficit early in the game. There's a chance here, but I'm not sure if we're confident enough yet to see that there is very little difference between them and the No. 16 Cyclones. The difference right now is confidence and knowing that you're going to win. Not believing that you will win, but knowing. See you in Ames. We need this one! #SicEm