Canada2017 said:
Golem said:
whiterock said:
Golem said:
Canada2017 said:
Golem said:
Redbrickbear said:
Having traveled to/through Africa a few dozen times, spanning 10 countries, including that stretch, I can tell you that population growth there is not going to be good news. They are not dealing well with their existing population numbers and they will only start illegally exporting their problem children to the west in ever larger numbers.
There are really only two places in Africa that I've visited that were broadly clean and well run - Rwanda and Namibia. West Africa (the area in the article) is a huge hell hole filled with rampant corruption and terrorism. More of the same is not going to make the world a better place.
What is the answer ?
To population growth? Probably isn't one. We simply need to keep them from coming to the west and exporting the abortion that is African culture, writ large.
We will obviously need to step up the soft power angle to key countries on the continent. That means cash to places with strategic ports and strategic rare earth minerals. Otherwise, we should step down aid to the rest of the continent and let them figure out how to make their countries run like grown ups. They have near year long growing seasons in most of subsaharan Africa. They should be able to figure out how to feed themselves without our help. If they can't, the population growth will slow down.
Africa is also expected to be the focal point for global economic growth the next several decades. And prosperity inevitably lowers reproductive rates. Basically, AF is where China was 50 years ago.
Time will fix it…..
Disagree. The most advanced nation on the continent (formerly at least) is being sucked dry by the ANC and rampant corruption and racism. It's going the way of Zim. Was in Cape Town last month and the townships seem to be creeping into the town proper.
The vast majority of the rest of Subsaharan Africa is awash in tribalism (feeding more corruption) and regional sectarian violence. I've missed two terrorist attacks by a matter of weeks (Nairobi westlands mall and the Raddison in Bamako). Shopped at the first and stayed at the second.
I deal with a lot of African technical experts and the bulk of them are so enamored with titles and rank that competence seems an afterthought…which shows. The only real technical competence in the continent, it seems, is imported…right now from China.
No, that continent is not going to grow like China…at least not economically. Not without a vast military takeover by some more advanced civilization. I'm afraid it's just going to continue to produce raw materials, rampant corruption and communicable diseases.
Thanks for the info.
Yet people who have never been overseas ( unless in an all inclusive resort ) much less to that part of Africa will dismiss what you have observed and experienced.
I lived in AF for 8 years in three different countries. None of Golem's observations are inconsistent with those I could share, except mine would be more lurid. At independence, a many African countries found themselves unable to staff agencies below the rank of cabinet minister with people who had college degrees. Perhaps the biggest progress is that nearly all the AF countries have learned (mostly the hard way) that communism and socialism are not good models for the future. They tend to understand that capital formation and a functioning private sector is a requirement. (that is not to say Singapore they will become....)
But none of that is what's going to drive AF to be a major engine of growth for the world economy. It's the kind of "tectonic plate" issues that I mentioned above: AF is laden with resources and gifted with an advantageous position in world trade. More importantly.....demographics. As noted above, the AF population is going to grow substantially for several decades - and population growth is the largest part of economic growth. Technology and resulting productivity gains matter, but it's people that drive growth. And that will occur within the context of the developed world dealing with bad demographics and structural realignments of their economies to slower growth models (see Japan).
AF indeed may not be able to exploit their resources as well as China. But their growth will accelerate and likely outstrip that of much of the rest of the world. And they will have help. How will Chinese companies deal with the growing shortages/increased costs of labor in China? Some will move operations to Africa..... It will not be circuit boards. It will be simple things. And capabilities will grow over time. Some of us here remember days when the phrase "Made In Japan" was synonymous with "shoddy quality".........
America is in great shape, too. We are blessed by geography in ways no other nation is, so much so that we almost cannot screw it up.
